2019 Minor Leagues/Prospect Discussion Thread

[Lateral Quicks]

“Wrong side of 25”. Damn.

Don't get me wrong, these guys are still young and anything is possible, but usually if a player is going to make it in the bigs, they'll have shown more than these 2 have by age 25. There are always exceptions like Bautista, but even Bautista had 2 full seasons of .750 OPS baseball under his belt at Brito's age.

[vaff87]

Heh, wait until you get to "it shouldn't be a surprise that he's in decline; Donaldson has caught a major case of being old", and then remember that Donaldson's a few months younger than you.

The aging curves nowadays compared to the “steroid era” are certainly curious. For example, Luis Gonzalez, had his out-of-nowhere 57 HR season at the age Donaldson is now. I don’t like to assume all of these guys were on steroids, so I feel like there has to be more to it.

[Schad]

The aging curves nowadays compared to the “steroid era” are certainly curious. For example, Luis Gonzalez, had his out-of-nowhere 57 HR season at the age Donaldson is now. I don’t like to assume all of these guys were on steroids, so I feel like there has to be more to it.

Suspect that steroids played a greater role in the eye-popping numbers, while amphetamines had a greater effect on longevity. The baseball season is so long, and such a grind, and having a big ol' pile of stimulants really helped.

The other factor is the increased velocity most pitchers are working with. Your batting eye doesn't go, your power generally doesn't fade that quickly, but your bat speed? When you need to wait back enough to differentiate between a 95 mph fastball and a 2500 rpm slider, every little bit of extra time before you commit is invaluable. What we're seeing, often, is that the first sign of decline is that K rates spike in a big way...our stars from 2015, each year through 2018:

Bautista: 15.9% > 19.9% > 24.8% > 27.8%.
Edwin: 15.5% > 19.7% > 19.9% > 22.8%.
Donaldson: 18.7% > 17.0% > 22.4% > 24.7%.

The more you're guessing, the more you're whiffing. And even when you're making contact, the odds increase that you'll fail to centre it.

[vaff87]

The aging curves nowadays compared to the “steroid era” are certainly curious. For example, Luis Gonzalez, had his out-of-nowhere 57 HR season at the age Donaldson is now. I don’t like to assume all of these guys were on steroids, so I feel like there has to be more to it.

Suspect that steroids played a greater role in the eye-popping numbers, while amphetamines had a greater effect on longevity. The baseball season is so long, and such a grind, and having a big ol' pile of stimulants really helped.

The other factor is the increased velocity most pitchers are working with. Your batting eye doesn't go, your power generally doesn't fade that quickly, but your bat speed? When you need to wait back enough to differentiate between a 95 mph fastball and a 2500 rpm slider, every little bit of extra time before you commit is invaluable. What we're seeing, often, is that the first sign of decline is that K rates spike in a big way...our stars from 2015, each year through 2018:

Bautista: 15.9% > 19.9% > 24.8% > 27.8%.
Edwin: 15.5% > 19.7% > 19.9% > 22.8%.
Donaldson: 18.7% > 17.0% > 22.4% > 24.7%.

The more you're guessing, the more you're whiffing. And even when you're making contact, the odds increase that you'll fail to centre it.

I don’t know why it has never really been talked about, but I remember reading on one of the Philadelphia news sites that Halladay had so many amphetamines in system when he crashed, that only an addict could function.



One thing I’ve never really understood is Albert Pujols’ walk rate decreasing so much as he’s gotten older.

[Schad]

I don’t know why it has never really been talked about, but I remember reading on one of the Philadelphia news sites that Halladay had so many amphetamines in system when he crashed, that only an addict could function.

He was at more than 3x the dosage considered to be potentially lethal, yeah. It doesn't get talked about for the same reason that baseball's problems have always been swept under the rug: it's really uncomfortable to consider. To wonder if Halladay's legendary competitiveness and focus might have had an unnatural assistance. Hell, to wonder if there might've been a pharmaceutical aid when a rather frazzled-looking young kid went down to the minors after one of the worst seasons in MLB history, and came back a steely-eyed warrior with unshakable resolve.

[dagger]

I don’t know why it has never really been talked about, but I remember reading on one of the Philadelphia news sites that Halladay had so many amphetamines in system when he crashed, that only an addict could function.

He was at more than 3x the dosage considered to be potentially lethal, yeah. It doesn't get talked about for the same reason that baseball's problems have always been swept under the rug: it's really uncomfortable to consider. To wonder if Halladay's legendary competitiveness and focus might have had an unnatural assistance. Hell, to wonder if there might've been a pharmaceutical aid when a rather frazzled-looking young kid went down to the minors after one of the worst seasons in MLB history, and came back a steely-eyed warrior with unshakable resolve.

Maybe, or possibly he was fine as a player but couldn't handle retirement.

[Schad]

Maybe, or possibly he was fine as a player but couldn't handle retirement.

Possible, though if I were putting money down, I'd bet heavily against the possibility that he was a straight shooter as a player (in an environment where uppers were, at one point, plentiful) that developed an insatiable amphetamine addiction in retirement.

[dagger]

Maybe, or possibly he was fine as a player but couldn't handle retirement.

Possible, though if I were putting money down, I'd bet heavily against the possibility that he was a straight shooter as a player (in an environment where uppers were, at one point, plentiful) that developed an insatiable amphetamine addiction in retirement.

Depression, perhaps

[Schad]

Perhaps. But I'll say this: if you have issues with depression, you don't generally turn to large doses of amphetamines. Not to say that they have no effect on what ails you, but there are a lot of things with a much more efficacious impact than something that makes you jittery as all hell, and ADHD drugs just induce anxiety. If you've reached the point of being able to consume that quantity of amphetamines, it's because you have taken a real shine to amphetamines.


Signed,

A person who had issues with depression in my late teens/early 20s (thanks, concussions) and did a bunch of drugs, but found it really vexing when the drugs purchased ended up being in the amphetamine family rather than what I'd actually wished to acquire. There is a vast gulf between happy-fun-time drugs and spend-16-hours-twitching drugs, let me tell you.

[vaff87]

Bo off to a slow start. Hitless in 3 of his first 4 games. Biggio, on the other hand, has an OPS over 1.800.

[dagger]

Yennsy Diaz moved up a level and threw six innings of one-hit ball with 5K, no walks for NH. Still not too late for him.

[Black Watch]

Suspect that steroids played a greater role in the eye-popping numbers, while amphetamines had a greater effect on longevity.

This.

Amphetamines are what kept the old guys trucking along through August.

[Trilogy]

I think Biggio's the guy to get potentially excited about in the system to break out alongside Vlad/Bichette (although, I hardly think Bichette is a lock for anything). He's been pretty dominant starting from last year. Hopefully he can stick at 2B.

[I_Like_Dirt]

I think Biggio's the guy to get potentially excited about in the system to break out alongside Vlad/Bichette (although, I hardly think Bichette is a lock for anything). He's been pretty dominant starting from last year. Hopefully he can stick at 2B.

I'm intrigued by Biggio but he's quite a bit older than Bichette and Vlad. He also started out last season like gangbusters and then wound up pretty ordinary by the end. The Jays have also been considering moving him to the outfield since the offseason. I'm sure they'll keep him at 2B as long as they can but I doubt he sticks there. Still, I think he could be very good. I'm just not sure he's going to have major positional value and his bat isn't going to be amazing, either.

He's definitely the only other significant bat/positional player from the farm I think has a shot to be up this season or even early next season. That has more to do with the fact that the Jays don't actually have a lot of position players that are on the cusp anymore now that Alford is on the team and Vlad will join them in a few weeks. It's really just Bo and Biggio and that's it. I'm curious about Waguespack and Romano but the position players that intrigue me tend to be in Dunedin or lower. Dunedin has Chavez Young, Cullen Large, Riley Adams, Logan Warmoth (I'm not a believer but maybe someone is) and even has Nate Pearson on their staff. This isn't going to be a major flood out of the gates.

[vaff87]

I think Biggio's the guy to get potentially excited about in the system to break out alongside Vlad/Bichette (although, I hardly think Bichette is a lock for anything). He's been pretty dominant starting from last year. Hopefully he can stick at 2B.

I'm intrigued by Biggio but he's quite a bit older than Bichette and Vlad. He also started out last season like gangbusters and then wound up pretty ordinary by the end. The Jays have also been considering moving him to the outfield since the offseason. I'm sure they'll keep him at 2B as long as they can but I doubt he sticks there. Still, I think he could be very good. I'm just not sure he's going to have major positional value and his bat isn't going to be amazing, either.

He's definitely the only other significant bat/positional player from the farm I think has a shot to be up this season or even early next season. That has more to do with the fact that the Jays don't actually have a lot of position players that are on the cusp anymore now that Alford is on the team and Vlad will join them in a few weeks. It's really just Bo and Biggio and that's it. I'm curious about Waguespack and Romano but the position players that intrigue me tend to be in Dunedin or lower. Dunedin has Chavez Young, Cullen Large, Riley Adams, Logan Warmoth (I'm not a believer but maybe someone is) and even has Nate Pearson on their staff. This isn't going to be a major flood out of the gates.

Shots fired at Kevin Smith.

[I_Like_Dirt]

Whoops. Yeah, forgot entirely about him because he hasn't been playing so far but I like him quite a bit more than Biggio. Still, it's not going to be a massive influx all at once. It's going to be more of a steady movement of players over time.

[vaff87]

Bo hitting .100 with a .332 ops. Hitless in four of the five games.

[Al_Oliver]

Bo hitting .100 with a .332 ops. Hitless in four of the five games.

still much better than Chris Davis... and at a fraction of the cost!

[vaff87]

Groshans is off to a good start. Hopefully he keeps it up.

[wazabifuzz]

what are the chances that Hernandez is on the hot seat to be DFA'd/traded for a ball by any of biggio , alford ?