Mavs & Cavs Draft Pick Watch

[Spud2nique]

6th position has a 9% shot at the 1st pick and a 37% chance of sliding into top 4...

7th, 8th, 9th have a 6% chance at the 1st pick and a 26% chance at cracking top 4.

I’d like the Mavs to land at #7 overall.

Peo, I do understand it man. I was just being an optimist that’s all. Plus, added bonus, you won’t see many people wanting to tank from here on out... or at least shouldn’t.

[Night Traen]

Peo, I do understand it man. I was just being an optimist that’s all. Plus, added bonus, you won’t see many people wanting to tank from here on out... or at least shouldn’t.

HAHAHA. Good one, Spank2nique. You had no clue what you were talking about and you're now trying to twist it into you being an "optimist".

(I can play this game too, dummy).

[Night Traen]

...

[Spud2nique]

Peo, I do understand it man. I was just being an optimist that’s all. Plus, added bonus, you won’t see many people wanting to tank from here on out... or at least shouldn’t.

HAHAHA. Good one, Spank2nique. You had no clue what you were talking about and you're now trying to twist it into you being an "optimist".

(I can play this game too, dummy).

Watch on YouTube

[lethalweapon3]

Mavs fans now wanna slip down to 9th with a couple closeout wins. As if they can just turn it on.

Good win, Pels!

~lw3

[ATL Boy]

When word got through that Dallas beat the Grizzlies in OT and that we officially clinched the 5th pick I found myself shifting focus from rooting for the loss in the game against MIL (to clinch the 5th pick in case DAL did lose so that I could root for a guilt free win at the Farm on Wednesday) to outright rooting for a victory and it felt liberating, like a weight was lifted off my shoulders knowing that this is the last time that I'll have to feel guilty if the Hawks win. Two years of tanking took the spirit out of me, I couldn't imagine going through it yearly like Suns fans or the Process Sixers.

As for the Mavericks now, they've still got a game against PHX which I think they'll win. Would be great for them to end up in that 7th sweet spot tied with another team while Memphis takes over 6 (I really don't want their pick conveying to Boston).

We've officially almost made it to the other side.

[Night Traen]

Peo, I do understand it man. I was just being an optimist that’s all. Plus, added bonus, you won’t see many people wanting to tank from here on out... or at least shouldn’t.

HAHAHA. Good one, Spank2nique. You had no clue what you were talking about and you're now trying to twist it into you being an "optimist".

(I can play this game too, dummy).

Watch on YouTube

Yeah, go ahead and keep posting nonsense when all you did was mistake what I was saying originally as some kind of slight towards you when all I was trying to to do was establish the truth of the situation. There is no "at least we don't have to pay attention to the mavs next year" until we actually establish that.

Idiots do dumb things like post internet meme videos when they are called out. I mean, I wasn't even calling you out, personally, I was trying to arrive at an answer of whether or not I was correct or incorrect.

Had the roles been reversed, I would have been: "wait, maybe I have no clue what I'm talking about and I take it back, my bad" but that's because I am actually intelligent and wouldn't take someone questioning my statement as some kind of major slight towards me. But you decided to call me night stain because you lack intelligence. It's ok, I forgive you, but I decided to play along for a couple of posts...just for "old self" sake.

[personanongrata]

It's all about lottery night now.

[Hazer]

HAHAHA. Good one, Spank2nique. You had no clue what you were talking about and you're now trying to twist it into you being an "optimist".

(I can play this game too, dummy).

Watch on YouTube

Yeah, go ahead and keep posting nonsense when all you did was mistake what I was saying originally as some kind of slight towards you when all I was trying to to do was establish the truth of the situation. There is no "at least we don't have to pay attention to the mavs next year" until we actually establish that.

Idiots do dumb things like post internet meme videos when they are called out. I mean, I wasn't even calling you out, personally, I was trying to arrive at an answer of whether or not I was correct or incorrect.

Had the roles been reversed, I would have been: "wait, maybe I have no clue what I'm talking about and I take it back, my bad" but that's because I am actually intelligent and wouldn't take someone questioning my statement as some kind of major slight towards me. But you decided to call me night stain because you lack intelligence. It's ok, I forgive you, but I decided to play along for a couple of posts...just for "old self" sake.

Spud knows about ping pong balls and lottery odds, he’s been part of that specific conversation here for many many months. Sensible posters understand he was referring to the likelihood of a result, due to improved odds.

[Hazer]

When word got through that Dallas beat the Grizzlies in OT and that we officially clinched the 5th pick I found myself shifting focus from rooting for the loss in the game against MIL (to clinch the 5th pick in case DAL did lose so that I could root for a guilt free win at the Farm on Wednesday) to outright rooting for a victory and it felt liberating, like a weight was lifted off my shoulders knowing that this is the last time that I'll have to feel guilty if the Hawks win. Two years of tanking took the spirit out of me, I couldn't imagine going through it yearly like Suns fans or the Process Sixers.

As for the Mavericks now, they've still got a game against PHX which I think they'll win. Would be great for them to end up in that 7th sweet spot tied with another team while Memphis takes over 6 (I really don't want their pick conveying to Boston).

We've officially almost made it to the other side.

Reminder: Hawks clinched 5th position, not 5th pick yet. There’s still that little matter of lottery ping pong balls.

[D21]

Mavs fans are probably going nuts. No Luka and they just staged a mini 2 minute comeback to take it to overtime.

Pretty sure they are not

I don't understand posts like this. We have no idea where Dallas is going to end up until the lottery, am I wrong? I mean, shouldn't we be rooting for the Wizards, Grizz, Pelicans to keep losing in order to place Dallas at 7 or 8 just to help the odds that they will not end up in the top 5?

Its all luck of the draw so don't stress out over last minute positioning. You'll see come lottery time how all that hard work for perfect positioning goes out the window.

It’s just for odds maximization, that simple

We have maximize the odds of our own pick, now, that's right that the best thing to maximize odds to get DAL's pick would be finishing at 7, 8 or 9th, but the best thing would be in between, with MEM, DAL, WAS, NOP finishing tied.
All odds shared, and a coin flip. DAL could be 6th, but with odds = 1/4 from odds of 6+7+8+9
Any tied for DAL improves our odds to get it

[graymule]

Just hope the Hawk's pick doesn't move too far away from #1 - like 8th or 10th.

[peoriabird]

Just hope the Hawk's pick doesn't move too far away from #1 - like 8th or 10th.

I don't think it matters that much in this draft.

[personanongrata]

The amount attention placed on, what are basically incremental differences in lottery odds, is completely irrational. 14% vs 12% vs 10% is pretty insignificant. The new odds will make a big difference in how random the lottery is, but people wont realize it until a couple drafts have passed.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

The amount attention placed on, what are basically incremental differences in lottery odds, is completely irrational. 14% vs 12% vs 10% is pretty insignificant. The new odds will make a big difference in how random the lottery is, but people wont realize it until a couple drafts have passed.

It makes the default position all the more important than ever. Because the lottery will be increasingly random, you can't overlook the importance of the floor with your lottery pick. If you don't get lucky, that is all you'll have to go on.

[personanongrata]

The amount attention placed on, what are basically incremental differences in lottery odds, is completely irrational. 14% vs 12% vs 10% is pretty insignificant. The new odds will make a big difference in how random the lottery is, but people wont realize it until a couple drafts have passed.

It makes the default position all the more important than ever. Because the lottery will be increasingly random, you can't overlook the importance of the floor with your lottery pick. If you don't get lucky, that is all you'll have to go on.

Perhaps, but no one talks about the floor. Everyone talks about striking rich in the lottery.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

The amount attention placed on, what are basically incremental differences in lottery odds, is completely irrational. 14% vs 12% vs 10% is pretty insignificant. The new odds will make a big difference in how random the lottery is, but people wont realize it until a couple drafts have passed.

It makes the default position all the more important than ever. Because the lottery will be increasingly random, you can't overlook the importance of the floor with your lottery pick. If you don't get lucky, that is all you'll have to go on.

Perhaps, but no one talks about the floor. Everyone talks about striking rich in the lottery.

Striking it rich is the most exciting possibility but anyone being strategic needs to look at all the scenarios. Default positioning becomes even more important when you have flattened lottery odds and 4 slots being draw in the lottery. The difference between the 7th and the 10th pick could be huge depending on how deep the lottery talent pool is in a given year and that positioning will be dictated by that default positioning playing out after the lottery balls are done.

For our own pick, I definitely love that we kept it at 5 rather than sliding to 6 or worse. Both gives you the better odds at the lottery slots but also gives you a much better floor.

[Spud2nique]

Just hope the Hawk's pick doesn't move too far away from #1 - like 8th or 10th.

I don't think it matters that much in this draft.

Of course it does. Even one slot up or down and you are gaining or losing leverage on a player or a trade. To say that it doesn’t matter is kind of a lazy perspective imho.

[Yungsta404]

The amount attention placed on, what are basically incremental differences in lottery odds, is completely irrational. 14% vs 12% vs 10% is pretty insignificant. The new odds will make a big difference in how random the lottery is, but people wont realize it until a couple drafts have passed.

It makes the default position all the more important than ever. Because the lottery will be increasingly random, you can't overlook the importance of the floor with your lottery pick. If you don't get lucky, that is all you'll have to go on.

http://www.tankathon.com/

I been playing around with this Draft Lottery simulator and the results have been pretty scary for our pick but the chances of us keeping the Dallas Pick has been pretty good

[Buzzard]

Mavs fans are probably going nuts. No Luka and they just staged a mini 2 minute comeback to take it to overtime.

Pretty sure they are not

Its all luck of the draw so don't stress out over last minute positioning. You'll see come lottery time how all that hard work for perfect positioning goes out the window.

It’s just for odds maximization, that simple

They have gotten quiet with Luka pretty much being put on the shelf and this weird stretch where they are playing almost .500 ball without him. A few did whine a little; one in particular who cannot figure out why the Mavs are so horrible at tanking.

I have become really interested in Fernando and Bol should we keep that Mavs pick. I wonder what Travis thinks of them?