2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[Dadouv47]

I’m as frustrated as anyone, but this post is nonsense.

?? explain plz. what is no sense about saying that being an (above) average team is the worst position possible for a team in the NBA?

I’m not saying that a rebuild shouldn’t happen. I am saying that OKC is a FAR better team than “barely a top 10 team in the league” which is exactly what you said.

Well right now I have Bucks, Sixers, Boston and Raptors ahead of us in the East (maybe they won't be as good next year because of Kawhi/Jimmy Butler/Harris free agency). Could make a case about an healthy Pacers team as well but still think we are better.
In the West GSW/Houton/Denver are way better than us and we are in the mix with an healthy Utah and Portland squad so yeah we are a 10 top team but not by a wild margin.

[SecondTake]

?? explain plz. what is no sense about saying that being an (above) average team is the worst position possible for a team in the NBA?

I’m not saying that a rebuild shouldn’t happen. I am saying that OKC is a FAR better team than “barely a top 10 team in the league” which is exactly what you said.

Well right now I have Bucks, Sixers, Boston and Raptors ahead of us in the East (maybe they won't be as good next year because of Kawhi/Jimmy Butler/Harris free agency). Could make a case about an healthy Pacers team as well but still think we are better.
In the West GSW/Houton/Denver are way better than us and we are in the mix with an healthy Utah and Portland squad so yeah we are a 10 top team but not by a wild margin.

Boston has been a joke. Sixers is a toss up. Only teams that are definitely better are GSW and MIL. HOU and TOR is probably better although we could beat both. Denver looks better but I'll wait for the postseason to make a judgment on that. We're a top 5 team when we're 'on'.

[SecondTake]

That lotto team is more worrying than the Rockets or Bucks even at full strength. Somehow.

Think the rockets could play with full team. Not sure they will be locked for 3rd spot and it could be better for them if we play the Warriors (and not them too). Not that we are a good team but pretty sure Houston/Gs prefer to play the Spurs or Clippers in a first round series.

I don't know how any coach and/or player could possibly be worried about us as their 1st round opponent if they've paid attention to what we've done since the All-Star break. I don't care what "name" players we have on our roster. We're easily the least intimidating Western Conference playoff team and there's only two or three Eastern Conference playoff teams who would be easier first round fodder than us.

The last 2 games looked like 'old' thunder. I think we'll hit our stride again by the time the playoffs roll in. We're already showing signs. When this team was firing we were clearly a top 3 team in the West. We're getting back to that level.

[NaturalThunder]

Think the rockets could play with full team. Not sure they will be locked for 3rd spot and it could be better for them if we play the Warriors (and not them too). Not that we are a good team but pretty sure Houston/Gs prefer to play the Spurs or Clippers in a first round series.

I don't know how any coach and/or player could possibly be worried about us as their 1st round opponent if they've paid attention to what we've done since the All-Star break. I don't care what "name" players we have on our roster. We're easily the least intimidating Western Conference playoff team and there's only two or three Eastern Conference playoff teams who would be easier first round fodder than us.

The last 2 games looked like 'old' thunder. I think we'll hit our stride again by the time the playoffs roll in. We're already showing signs. When this team was firing we were clearly a top 3 team in the West. We're getting back to that level.

We're not a top 3 team in the West. When firing on all cylinders, we're the 4th best team in the West, but the Warriors, Nuggets, and Rockets, when firing on all cylinders, are deeper, more well-rounded, better coached teams than us. Unfortunately, because of our awful play since the All-Star break, we're going to have to play one of those three teams in the 1st round and any of the three will dispose of us in no more than 5 games.

[Kizz Fastfists]

I’m not saying that a rebuild shouldn’t happen. I am saying that OKC is a FAR better team than “barely a top 10 team in the league” which is exactly what you said.

Toronto, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston, GS, Denver and Houston are clearly better than OKC. That puts them at best 8th, which is barely top 10. It could be argued that Indy, Utah, SA, Portland and LAC are better which would put OKC out of the top 10.

[Dn4sty]

I’m not saying that a rebuild shouldn’t happen. I am saying that OKC is a FAR better team than “barely a top 10 team in the league” which is exactly what you said.

Toronto, Milwaukee, Philly, Boston, GS, Denver and Houston are clearly better than OKC. That puts them at best 8th, which is barely top 10. It could be argued that Indy, Utah, SA, Portland and LAC are better which would put OKC out of the top 10.

I’ll be the first to admit I read the original post a bit wrong. It’s been a long week

[Dn4sty]

So 6 seed is on the table and a first round matchup against Portland.

[NaturalThunder]

So 6 seed is on the table and a first round matchup against Portland.

Yes, but that's probably a longshot since the Rockets would pretty much have to lose out and the Blazers would have to win out.

The Blazers have the Lakers and Kings left, two very winnable games for them. It's pretty amazing how they keep winning with McCollum being out injured for awhile and now Nurkic has been out for a few weeks. A 53-win season is still very much in play for them. Stotts is a really good coach and Lillard probably deserves a few MVP votes this year.

But yeah, if we beat the Rockets on Tuesday (doubtful) and the Blazers win their last two, the Blazers would finish 3rd and the Rockets 4th.

The Jazz just lost the Lakers which makes the 5-seed in play for us, too, unless I'm mistaken. I know we own the tiebreaker over the Jazz because we swept the season series. The Jazz have the Nuggets at home the Clippers on the road remaining.


That's still a longshot, though. I can't see us beating both the Rockets and Bucks. The Bucks are the most likely since they're locked into their seed so they might be resting everyone, but the Rockets have 3rd place on the line so they very much have something to play for.

[Thunder Up]

welp, after last night there’s somehow a very real possibility the Thunder win out, Jazz lose out, and Thunder snag the 5 seed

[Dadouv47]

Right now the only thing that matters is beating the Rockets to avoid the 8th seed. If we do we will see what is possible depending on other results (I would want to avoid both Gs or Houston in a first round and Portland without Nurkic is a dream scenario but right now I'm fine with just avoiding Gs)

[Pillendreher]

Potential Assists - FGA for Westbrook:

Games 1-38: 19.5 - 19.6
Games 39-56: 22.6 - 19.2
Games 57-77: 19.7 - 22.2
Games 78-80: 25.7 - 21.0

A Russ that passes more is better than a Russ that chucks more.

[Dadouv47]

Potential Assists - FGA for Westbrook:

Games 1-38: 19.5 - 19.6
Games 39-56: 22.6 - 19.2
Games 57-77: 19.7 - 22.2
Games 78-80: 25.7 - 21.0

A Russ that passes more is better than a Russ that chucks more.

to be fair to Russ I feel he's shooting more when our team is incapable of scoring. It's the first year that he really took a step back on his shooting. If Russ could rely more on our team to shoot well on a nightly basis we wouldn't be struggling so much (that's not an excuse for his terrible shooting percentage this year though )

[slick_watts]

what is a 'potential assist'?

[Kizz Fastfists]

what is a 'potential assist'?

A pass that leads to the opportunity for an assist. If the shot is made it is an assist. If the shot is missed then it is nothing in the box score. The problem with only looking at potential assists, in the case of Russ, is that Russ hunts assist opportunities. Russ has 4 more potential assists than anyone else this season at 20.6, but is behind players like Jokic and Blake Griffin in passes per game and they are only averaging 11 potential assists. Most of the things Russ does is in the pursuit of the triple double and not in the pursuit of winning basketball.

Russ doesn't pass to move the defense to create space for the team to score easy points. He passes expecting the person to shoot so that he can get 1 of his 10 needed assists for the night. I'm not saying that Russ doesn't want to win, but he has built his entire game around getting the triple double more than playing a winning style of basketball. That is not all on Russ as he never had an NBA coach who preached winning basketball, especially offense. Brooks let Russ and kd run their iso shows and do as they wanted and Donovan continues that trend. Russ is a great player, but his individual glory does not translate to wins the way it would if he had been taught how to use his ability to play more efficient team basketball.

[Dn4sty]

what is a 'potential assist'?

A pass that leads to the opportunity for an assist. If the shot is made it is an assist. If the shot is missed then it is nothing in the box score. The problem with only looking at potential assists, in the case of Russ, is that Russ hunts assist opportunities. Russ has 4 more potential assists than anyone else this season at 20.6, but is behind players like Jokic and Blake Griffin in passes per game and they are only averaging 11 potential assists. Most of the things Russ does is in the pursuit of the triple double and not in the pursuit of winning basketball.

Russ doesn't pass to move the defense to create space for the team to score easy points. He passes expecting the person to shoot so that he can get 1 of his 10 needed assists for the night. I'm not saying that Russ doesn't want to win, but he has built his entire game around getting the triple double more than playing a winning style of basketball. That is not all on Russ as he never had an NBA coach who preached winning basketball, especially offense. Brooks let Russ and kd run their iso shows and do as they wanted and Donovan continues that trend. Russ is a great player, but his individual glory does not translate to wins the way it would if he had been taught how to use his ability to play more efficient team basketball.

What is the Thunder winning percentage when Russ gets a triple double?

This post barely deserves a response.

[Dadouv47]

what is a 'potential assist'?

A pass that leads to the opportunity for an assist. If the shot is made it is an assist. If the shot is missed then it is nothing in the box score. The problem with only looking at potential assists, in the case of Russ, is that Russ hunts assist opportunities. Russ has 4 more potential assists than anyone else this season at 20.6, but is behind players like Jokic and Blake Griffin in passes per game and they are only averaging 11 potential assists. Most of the things Russ does is in the pursuit of the triple double and not in the pursuit of winning basketball.

Russ doesn't pass to move the defense to create space for the team to score easy points. He passes expecting the person to shoot so that he can get 1 of his 10 needed assists for the night. I'm not saying that Russ doesn't want to win, but he has built his entire game around getting the triple double more than playing a winning style of basketball. That is not all on Russ as he never had an NBA coach who preached winning basketball, especially offense. Brooks let Russ and kd run their iso shows and do as they wanted and Donovan continues that trend. Russ is a great player, but his individual glory does not translate to wins the way it would if he had been taught how to use his ability to play more efficient team basketball.

What is the Thunder winning percentage when Russ gets a triple double?

This post barely deserves a response.

Well Slick likes to blame Russ for everything but the lack of passing has always been and is still a problem though (it has been a problem since 2010). We had the same issue with Harden, Durant etc. I blame the coaching staff more than anyone else because I remember we were to able to increase ball movement and make those extra passes in order to win some tough playoffs series in the past.

[Kizz Fastfists]

What is the Thunder winning percentage when Russ gets a triple double?

Is that correlation or causation?

[bondom34]

What is the Thunder winning percentage when Russ gets a triple double?

Is that correlation or causation?

You were the one who made the first rather baseless and pretty dumb claim, I'd say it's on you to actually provide insight at that point.

[Kizz Fastfists]

If the team believes it is causation then should the entire first half of the game be focused on getting Russ his triple double? I'm clearly in the correlation side. While this list is old it shows that Russ gets triple doubles more frequently against bad teams. I can't find a more recent list right now. I might dig for one later.

https://stats.nba.com/articles/westbrook-triple-doubles-vs-everybody/

Does anyone wish to argue that OKC is more likely to win a game where Russ gets 10 rebounds instead of Russ getting 7 with Adams getting the other 3 because Russ stayed on his man instead of sliding down to position for a rebound?

https://www.nba.com/features/kidd_tripledoubles.html

Kidd's teams won at a significantly higher rate when he had a triple double. Again, I'm going with correlation.

It being correlation instead of causation does NOT diminish the feat. Getting a triple double is a GREAT accomplishment. Averaging one for a season is beyond impressive. Averaging one for three straight season is all-time great status without needing to know anything else. I'm simply saying that OKC does not win or lose based on a triple double from Russ. They win or lose based on how the team plays and who the opponent is and how they play. Russ has missed triple doubles because his teammates couldn't make shots on a given night and he ended with 7-8 assists. If his teammates had been making shots he gets the triple double and OKC wins, but Russ' play would have been the exact same. When playing opponents that are not shooing well there are more rebound opportunities making it more likely for Russ to grab 10 rebounds. If those shots fall he might come up short. It doe NOT take away from the greatness of Russ to say it is correlation. It is just acknowledgment that Russ does not hold the power of winning and losing a team game all by himself.

[bondom34]

I hesitate to feed the troll but that's not what you said. You're trying too hard to be smart, and it backfires.

but he has built his entire game around getting the triple double more than playing a winning style of basketball.

Exact quote. And exactly wrong. Now, you can walk it back and try to sound smart or own the dumb thing said was a dumb thing (granted same person I believe also claimed Westbrook had no skill and won MVP which still remains one of the weirder things anyone has ever said). I know what will happen. Either you're lying now or then. Or just trying to get cute.

As for the rebounding thing, we've already established it's coached, and that KD did the same thing (see his 2016 stats), and that historically it's led to better offense.

https://uproxx.com/dimemag/russell-westbrook-rebounding-thunder-triple-doubles-offense/
From February.

Full quote:

Over the past three years, opponents have missed 508 free throws that turned into live rebounds against the Thunder. In that period, Oklahoma City as a whole has scored 526 points on those possessions for an unremarkable 103.5 offensive rating, per pbpstats.com. The average team’s offense after missed free throws puts up 106.0 points per 100 possessions, for comparison.

That number skyrockets when it’s Westbrook who gets the rebound, all the way up to 113.1, which would be good for third in the league behind Denver and Toronto. We’ve all seen the highlights of Westbrook taking in a miss and going coast-to-coast, but even if he’s unable to score immediately, the pressure he puts on a defense every time he picks up a rebound is unlike almost any other player in the league. The vast difference between Westbrook’s possessions and his team’s overall mark makes it even clearer that they should get the ball to him as early and often as possible. They simply don’t have anybody else on the team who can do what Westbrook does after a rebound.

After a missed field goal attempt, the results are largely similar. When it’s Westbrook grabbing the board, Oklahoma City is nearly unstoppable, to the tune of a 115.0 offensive rating over the last three years. Curb it back to the last two years (after Paul George joined the team) and that already absurd efficiency jumps to 117.9 points per 100 possessions. The league-wide average in offensive rating in these situations hovers around 111 points per 100 possessions, while only the Houston Rockets have been better than Westbrook in offensive efficiency after an opponent’s missed field goal over the last two years.

But hey I guess Durant didn't play winning basketball either? Or nah you're just trolling again.