Andrew Wiggins and the wolves future

[wolfen]

FOr the good of the team, Saunders must ensure Wiggins understands he has to earn a starting roster spot. Period. If we draft a wing, then I consider that as "message sent".

ROCO is a nice 3 & D player and I hope we dont mess it up by babying Wiggins ... if Wiggins dont see it, is not motivated, or is just unwilling to earn that spot then, so be it. We just cannot move forward writing the same check and expecting different results.

Absolutely. Well said. Been meaning to write an an extended post about the Wiggins situation here lately but this thing called work keeps getting in the way. Stay tuned.

[Killboard]

Good news, K.Knox knocked Wiggins out of worst defensive forward/wing in the league on RealGM's Dunk'd On podcast. He was still in the top 3(Knox and non trying LeBron) and the other host put J.Collins and Knox ahead of Wiggins for worst.

......

Also note, there's a good number of positive players on the roster.
Gibson +11
Towns +10
Deing +7
Covington +6
Jones +2
Deng +4

Reynolds 0

And some negatives...
Rose -3
Teague -4
Tolliver -5
KBD -10
Okogie -12
Wiggins -15

Good post, AirP. I listened to that podcast as well, and the way they introduced how they made their choices (like, athletic potential to be better, not caring, etc), I thought Wiggins was a shoe-in for #1. Still, being #3 among forwards is still horribly bad.

I wanted to mention that they brought up Towns as one of the three most improved centers defensively. They said he’s still not good, but he’s not awful, and with some help (like Covington), he might be better.

Lastly, I’m also glad that you posted the ratings for the rest of the team. People may be surprised to see Okogie so low, but this should not be unexpected. Okogie hustles and makes some good defensive plays, but hardly any players are positives defensively their first year. Okogie has some tools and he has heart - I expect him to get better and better

As we always mention BKref ratings are not team based or take into account how the team perfomed when those players were on the floor, they are estimated based on how they performed on the individual possessions used. NBA.com has total different ratings and IMO are much better weighting the impact that a player had in the game for his whole team.

Deng +10
Roco +3
KAT +1.4
Rose +1
Tyus +0.6
Teague -0.2
Okogie -0.6
Wiggins -0.9
Saric -1.3
Gibson -2
Dieng -2.2
Tolliver -3.9
KBD -5.6
Butler -8.1

[Worm Guts]

I've said it before but people seem to think I'm kidding: if no trade options are available, I'd start exploring buy-out options. The team needs to get rid of this guy!

That doesn’t solve the main issue of the salary cap burden.

It's way worse than salary cap burden at this point, and even their it would save SOME money.

Only if Wiggins is willing to take less money, which he doesn’t have to, and even then I’m not sure the full amount wouldn’t cost against the cap.

[AirP.]

As we always mention BKref ratings are not team based or take into account how the team perfomed when those players were on the floor, they are estimated based on how they performed on the individual possessions used. NBA.com has total different ratings and IMO are much better weighting the impact that a player had in the game for his whole team.

As we always mention BKref ratings are not team based or take into account how the team perfomed when those players were on the floor, they are estimated based on how they performed on the individual possessions used. NBA.com has total different ratings and IMO are much better weighting the impact that a player had in the game for his whole team.

Deng +10
Roco +3
KAT +1.4
Rose +1
Tyus +0.6
Teague -0.2
Okogie -0.6
Wiggins -0.9
Saric -1.3
Gibson -2
Dieng -2.2
Tolliver -3.9
KBD -5.6
Butler -8.1

BBRef's numbers are based off what the team does and ALSO takes in consideration what the individual player contributes, this is why Wiggins is so bad on BBREF (low TS%, bad defense) and why it's mitigated on NBA.COM because he's basically carried by his teammates to a better overall number(and why Town's rating on NBA.COM is so much worse).

NBA.Com's calculation is this...
100*((Points)/(POSS)
That's it... all the points and possessions while a player is on the court, doesn't matter if Towns is carrying you or J.Crawford is pulling you down, it's why Wiggins is only 2.3 difference from Towns and almost all of us can agree the divide is by far greater than that.

Since probably nobody goes to look at the way BBREF is calculated, I'll post the ORTG calculation here.
BTW... Oliver Dean's wikipeia(who came up with the formulas that bbref uses).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dean_Oliver_(statistician)

Offensive Rating
In Dean's words, "Individual offensive rating is the number of points produced by a player per hundred total individual possessions. In other words, 'How many points is a player likely to generate when he tries?'"

The basic building blocks of the Offensive Rating calculation are Individual Total Possessions and Individual Points Produced. The formula for Total Possessions is broken down into four components: Scoring Possessions, Missed FG Possessions, Missed FT Possessions, and Turnovers.

The Scoring Possessions formula is by far the most complex:

ScPoss = (FG_Part + AST_Part + FT_Part) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + ORB_Part
where:

FG_Part = FGM * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
qAST = ((MP / (Team_MP / 5)) * (1.14 * ((Team_AST - AST) / Team_FGM))) + ((((Team_AST / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - AST) / ((Team_FGM / Team_MP) * MP * 5 - FGM)) * (1 - (MP / (Team_MP / 5))))
AST_Part = 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
FT_Part = (1-(1-(FTM/FTA))^2)*0.4*FTA
Team_Scoring_Poss = Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * Team_FTA * 0.4
Team_ORB_Weight = ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play%) / ((1 - Team_ORB%) * Team_Play% + Team_ORB% * (1 - Team_Play%))
Team_ORB% = Team_ORB / (Team_ORB + (Opponent_TRB - Opponent_ORB))
Team_Play% = Team_Scoring_Poss / (Team_FGA + Team_FTA * 0.4 + Team_TOV)
ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%
Missed FG and Missed FT Possessions are calculated as follows:

FGxPoss = (FGA - FGM) * (1 - 1.07 * Team_ORB%)
FTxPoss = ((1 - (FTM / FTA))^2) * 0.4 * FTA
Total Possessions are then computed like so:

TotPoss = ScPoss + FGxPoss + FTxPoss + TOV
Now, Individual Points Produced must also be calculated:

PProd = (PProd_FG_Part + PProd_AST_Part + FTM) * (1 - (Team_ORB / Team_Scoring_Poss) * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play%) + PProd_ORB_Part
where:

PProd_FG_Part = 2 * (FGM + 0.5 * 3PM) * (1 - 0.5 * ((PTS - FTM) / (2 * FGA)) * qAST)
PProd_AST_Part = 2 * ((Team_FGM - FGM + 0.5 * (Team_3PM - 3PM)) / (Team_FGM - FGM)) * 0.5 * (((Team_PTS - Team_FTM) - (PTS - FTM)) / (2 * (Team_FGA - FGA))) * AST
PProd_ORB_Part = ORB * Team_ORB_Weight * Team_Play% * (Team_PTS / (Team_FGM + (1 - (1 - (Team_FTM / Team_FTA))^2) * 0.4 * Team_FTA))
After all of that, we can finally calculate the player's individual Offensive Rating:

ORtg = 100 * (PProd / TotPoss)
As a side note, we can also calculate what Oliver calls Floor Percentage, which answers the question, "What percentage of the time that a player wants to score does he actually score?":

Floor% = ScPoss / TotPoss
The difference between Offensive Rating and Floor Percentage, Oliver notes, is the average number of Points Produced per Scoring Possession. "Though [Shaquille O'Neal] may have a high floor percentage," Oliver writes, "his poor foul shooting means that he has a lot of one-point possessions, bringing his offensive rating down a bit. Good three-point shooters like Reggie Miller, who may not have the highest floor percentage, will have higher offensive ratings."

On a side note... to really see this work, BBRef calculates the ORTG and DRTGs in their boxscores, so when you see someone have weird +/- in normal box scores, head over to bbref's box scores to see how each individual player contributed to the overall score based on their time on the court. That player may have been on the court with other players who either tanked or helped their +/-. Is it exact, no, but it gives you a much better representation of what a player brought to the team in that particular time frame.

For a quick example(an unsual example for Towns), the Wolves vs Miami, Towns is +6 in the game but had 11 TOs but shows up in BBREF's ORTG as 68 for the game... he personally cost Minnesota 11 possessions, not Wiggins, not Tyus, not whoever... Towns. It lets you see that player's impact on the team during his time on the court.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201904050MIN.html

[mplsfonz23]

That doesn’t solve the main issue of the salary cap burden.

It's way worse than salary cap burden at this point, and even their it would save SOME money.

Only if Wiggins is willing to take less money, which he doesn’t have to, and even then I’m not sure the full amount wouldn’t cost against the cap.

Pretty sure it doesn't work that way. We are stuck with his salary until someone takes him off our hands. So just dumping a guy doesn't make sense. Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

[Worm Guts]

It's way worse than salary cap burden at this point, and even their it would save SOME money.

Only if Wiggins is willing to take less money, which he doesn’t have to, and even then I’m not sure the full amount wouldn’t cost against the cap.

Pretty sure it doesn't work that way. We are stuck with his salary until someone takes him off our hands. So just dumping a guy doesn't make sense. Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

You can negotiate a smaller payout if the player is willing, but I’m pretty sure the cap number stays the same.

[Killboard]

On a side note... to really see this work, BBRef calculates the ORTG and DRTGs in their boxscores, so when you see someone have weird +/- in normal box scores, head over to bbref's box scores to see how each individual player contributed to the overall score based on their time on the court. That player may have been on the court with other players who either tanked or helped their +/-. Is it exact, no, but it gives you a much better representation of what a player brought to the team in that particular time frame.

For a quick example(an unsual example for Towns), the Wolves vs Miami, Towns is +6 in the game but had 11 TOs but shows up in BBREF's ORTG as 68 for the game... he personally cost Minnesota 11 possessions, not Wiggins, not Tyus, not whoever... Towns. It lets you see that player's impact on the team during his time on the court.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201904050MIN.html

The thing is they only use individual boxscore stats to calculate the RTG. I'm not saying it hasn't their uses, but it doesn't account for anything a player can make to improve his team play that aren't in the boxscore. By using team output you assess other things, gravity, hockey assist, switches, box outs etc, which is a more compelling stat.
As for how much a teamate carry you or not, you can use nbawowy for example, which let you choose specific combinations of on/off players.

[minimus]

Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

This thing alone is worth of bringing KG here. That is hidden resource that we can still use once, KG and Glen can get alone.

[mplsfonz23]

Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

This thing alone is worth of bringing KG here. That is hidden resource that we can still use once, KG and Glen can get alone.

I think that fence is broken. Once KG said Glen screwed up this franchise because he don't know sh*t about basketball.
Now KG is right, but a person with an ego like Glen's makes it hard to pay somebody even if it's for the betterment of the team.

[minimus]

Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

This thing alone is worth of bringing KG here. That is hidden resource that we can still use once, KG and Glen can get alone.

I think that fence is broken. Once KG said Glen screwed up this franchise because he don't know sh*t about basketball.
Now KG is right, but a person with an ego like Glen's makes it hard to pay somebody even if it's for the betterment of the team.

Yeah, I know. I just hope that grown men can find solution. Also I don't think that it was wise for KG to say publicly such things about Glen. Michael Jordan obviously knows much more about basketball that Glen, but it does not help CHA at all.

[Jedzz]

Only if Wiggins is willing to take less money, which he doesn’t have to, and even then I’m not sure the full amount wouldn’t cost against the cap.

Pretty sure it doesn't work that way. We are stuck with his salary until someone takes him off our hands. So just dumping a guy doesn't make sense. Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

You can negotiate a smaller payout if the player is willing, but I’m pretty sure the cap number stays the same.

Why should Wiggins be willing to accept less now? It's money coming to his bank whether the team lets him play or not at this point. Worse thing the team can do is threaten to otherwise trade him to somewhere he would hate to go. I don't see how cutting him is any leverage for asking him to accept less in getting fired. The only players that may have done so probably wanted out and had to agree in order to get out fast enough for their liking.

[Worm Guts]

Pretty sure it doesn't work that way. We are stuck with his salary until someone takes him off our hands. So just dumping a guy doesn't make sense. Call me an idiot, but I really hope he works this summer and comes back to prove everyone wrong about him. He told KG his goal is to be an all star next season. I should be a playoff run, but if he's close to an all star, we should make the PO's.

You can negotiate a smaller payout if the player is willing, but I’m pretty sure the cap number stays the same.

Why should Wiggins be willing to accept less now? It's money coming to his bank whether the team lets him play or not at this point. Worse thing the team can do is threaten to otherwise trade him to somewhere he would hate to go. I don't see how cutting him is any leverage for asking him to accept less in getting fired. The only players that may have done so probably wanted out and had to agree in order to get out fast enough for their liking.

He shouldn't and he probably wouldn't, but it is possible and it's been done before.

[Jedzz]

Ryan has to do everything at his reach to put a offseason plan that involves at least KAT and Wigs together. As late I have seen KAT finding Wigs of backdoor cuts like never before. I think big part of Wiggins problems is sinergy with other pieces and I think one offseason of practice a 1-2 game could do wonders for him.

Why hasn't that already occurred would be my question. Why has he not been cutting at all for the past three seasons. Go way back and even Martin used to cut more than Wiggins has, and Martin at least had a history of being a decent shooter beyond the arc, was less athletically mobile, and had a reason to stand and wait around for the pass. I watch Kat with the ball getting doubled tripled now, anyone on the team for that matter, and everyone else just stands out at the arc waiting for them to solve it themselves. Saw it happen at least twice in the last game. Is this something they are going to fix in the last week of September next year but they couldn't have fixed it two months ago?

[Jedzz]

You can negotiate a smaller payout if the player is willing, but I’m pretty sure the cap number stays the same.

Why should Wiggins be willing to accept less now? It's money coming to his bank whether the team lets him play or not at this point. Worse thing the team can do is threaten to otherwise trade him to somewhere he would hate to go. I don't see how cutting him is any leverage for asking him to accept less in getting fired. The only players that may have done so probably wanted out and had to agree in order to get out fast enough for their liking.

He shouldn't and he probably wouldn't, but it is possible and it's been done before.

Well then to help that purpose they must move forward with threats to trade him somewhere he wouldn't want to play, or to assure him a bench spot and 5 minutes max a game. Anything to gain some kind of leverage before offering the chance to get out on his own by taking less in a buy out.

[Klomp]

Why hasn't that already occurred would be my question. Why has he not been cutting at all for the past three seasons. Go way back and even Martin used to cut more than Wiggins has, and Martin at least had a history of being a decent shooter beyond the arc, was less athletically mobile, and had a reason to stand and wait around for the pass. I watch Kat with the ball getting doubled tripled now, anyone on the team for that matter, and everyone else just stands out at the arc waiting for them to solve it themselves. Saw it happen at least twice in the last game. Is this something they are going to fix in the last week of September next year but they couldn't have fixed it two months ago?

[mplsfonz23]

Ryan has to do everything at his reach to put a offseason plan that involves at least KAT and Wigs together. As late I have seen KAT finding Wigs of backdoor cuts like never before. I think big part of Wiggins problems is sinergy with other pieces and I think one offseason of practice a 1-2 game could do wonders for him.

Why hasn't that already occurred would be my question. Why has he not been cutting at all for the past three seasons. Go way back and even Martin used to cut more than Wiggins has, and Martin at least had a history of being a decent shooter beyond the arc, was less athletically mobile, and had a reason to stand and wait around for the pass. I watch Kat with the ball getting doubled tripled now, anyone on the team for that matter, and everyone else just stands out at the arc waiting for them to solve it themselves. Saw it happen at least twice in the last game. Is this something they are going to fix in the last week of September next year but they couldn't have fixed it two months ago?

Good question. Kind of like why don't they throw more alley opps to Towns? Pretty sure he could use a nice spin lob dunk in his arsenal.

[AirP.]

On a side note... to really see this work, BBRef calculates the ORTG and DRTGs in their boxscores, so when you see someone have weird +/- in normal box scores, head over to bbref's box scores to see how each individual player contributed to the overall score based on their time on the court. That player may have been on the court with other players who either tanked or helped their +/-. Is it exact, no, but it gives you a much better representation of what a player brought to the team in that particular time frame.

For a quick example(an unsual example for Towns), the Wolves vs Miami, Towns is +6 in the game but had 11 TOs but shows up in BBREF's ORTG as 68 for the game... he personally cost Minnesota 11 possessions, not Wiggins, not Tyus, not whoever... Towns. It lets you see that player's impact on the team during his time on the court.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201904050MIN.html

The thing is they only use individual boxscore stats to calculate the RTG. I'm not saying it hasn't their uses, but it doesn't account for anything a player can make to improve his team play that aren't in the boxscore. By using team output you assess other things, gravity, hockey assist, switches, box outs etc, which is a more compelling stat.
As for how much a teamate carry you or not, you can use nbawowy for example, which let you choose specific combinations of on/off players.

Hockey assist, switches, box outs, no, NBA.com has no more indication of that then BBRef since BOTH utilize what the team does in it's calculations, BBRef's calculation just goes in depth more by looking at what the individual contributed to those stats. If Wiggins comes down and misses 5 straight shots, there should be some type of indication in his ortg that he caused 0 points and not penalize the rest of his teammates just as much because he's on the court with them. To me, there should be individual accountability which I don't get from NBA.Com's simple calculation.

It's not a perfect equation, but it's one that seems to indicate the better players are way better then the bad ones, NBA.Coms doesn't really separate the players all that much and with that, doesn't give much info.

[shrink]

In the NBA, only teams that are under the cap are allowed to renegotiate a contract. 4-5 year deals become eligible for renegotiation three years after the signing. Guaranteed contracts cannot be renegotiated with a pay cut.

[Klomp]

In the NBA, only teams that are under the cap are allowed to renegotiate a contract. 4-5 year deals become eligible for renegotiation three years after the signing. Guaranteed contracts cannot be renegotiated with a pay cut.

I believe they were talking about buyout situations.

[Killboard]

On a side note... to really see this work, BBRef calculates the ORTG and DRTGs in their boxscores, so when you see someone have weird +/- in normal box scores, head over to bbref's box scores to see how each individual player contributed to the overall score based on their time on the court. That player may have been on the court with other players who either tanked or helped their +/-. Is it exact, no, but it gives you a much better representation of what a player brought to the team in that particular time frame.

For a quick example(an unsual example for Towns), the Wolves vs Miami, Towns is +6 in the game but had 11 TOs but shows up in BBREF's ORTG as 68 for the game... he personally cost Minnesota 11 possessions, not Wiggins, not Tyus, not whoever... Towns. It lets you see that player's impact on the team during his time on the court.
https://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/201904050MIN.html

The thing is they only use individual boxscore stats to calculate the RTG. I'm not saying it hasn't their uses, but it doesn't account for anything a player can make to improve his team play that aren't in the boxscore. By using team output you assess other things, gravity, hockey assist, switches, box outs etc, which is a more compelling stat.
As for how much a teamate carry you or not, you can use nbawowy for example, which let you choose specific combinations of on/off players.

Hockey assist, switches, box outs, no, NBA.com has no more indication of that then BBRef since BOTH utilize what the team does in it's calculations, BBRef's calculation just goes in depth more by looking at what the individual contributed to those stats. If Wiggins comes down and misses 5 straight shots, there should be some type of indication in his ortg that he caused 0 points and not penalize the rest of his teammates just as much because he's on the court with them. To me, there should be individual accountability which I don't get from NBA.Com's simple calculation.

It's not a perfect equation, but it's one that seems to indicate the better players are way better then the bad ones, NBA.Coms doesn't really separate the players all that much and with that, doesn't give much info.

But it's still a calculation and an estimated, weighting the individual box score stats and team box score stats in arbitrary way. Nba.com is the team pure output on both sides of the floor. Both could have his own legitimacy. Is just that one is trying to isolate things and the other is compelling. Still, there is a chance that by isolating things you are leaving out others.