2018-2019 OKC Thunder Regular Season Pt 1: A Renewed Hope

[slick_watts]

especially this year, westbrook getting a triple double = westbrook gets a lot of defensive rebounds = opponents miss a lot of shots = higher chance of winning.

there's some correlation between westbrook getting a defensive rebound and the offense being a bit better when he's on the court. that article is a little misleading since it's including minutes that westbrook is off the court, which obviously is dumb to include. especially when pbpstats and other tools make it so easy to exclude them. but over 400-ish possessions the last three years on missed FTA there's a 8-9pp100 difference and on FGA it's about 6-7pp100 difference.

it should be noted that these differences have a lot of variance season to season.. in westbrook's mvp season there was actually a slight negative correlation on both free throws and fg when westbrook got the defensive rebound. and there's a slight negative correlation on fga this year. 114.6pp100 on westbrook fga drb compared to 115.2pp100 when a teammate secures one with westbrook on the court. so if we're solely evaluating westbrook on this season alone, it is much more difficult to argue for the value of his defensive rebounds. last season there was super high correlation on both.

if westbrook was making free throws and scoring at league average efficiency, the improvement in impact would dwarf the impact his defensive rebounding has for sure though. even if you take those numbers at face value for the three years cumulatively. i think that's what people mean by he's focusing on the wrong things. even his rebound distribution this year is worse, as he's career low orb%. orb having more value than drb, obviously.

[slick_watts]

Does anyone wish to argue that OKC is more likely to win a game where Russ gets 10 rebounds instead of Russ getting 7 with Adams getting the other 3 because Russ stayed on his man instead of sliding down to position for a rebound?

this is the other part of it that is difficult to quantify. in 2017-18 there was enough wiggle room to say for sure westbrook's defensive rebounding relative to a teammate was worth whatever the team was giving up defensively to get him in position. this season? it might not be. mvp season? might not have been.

some people will argue westbrook doesn't hurt the team going for defensive rebounds. but i think everyone's seen plenty of cases where it has to at least agree that it is a non-zero impact.

[bondom34]

If you ignore offensive benefits and only focus on specific negative cases sure. But we can do that for any habit of any player.
Just so we agree this always hurt them. Including the pre 2017 days. But that would require saying something remotely positive, which isn't expected or accepted here.

[slick_watts]

If you ignore offensive benefits sure. Just so we agree this always hurt them. Including the pre 2017 days. But that would require saying something remotely positive, which isn't expected or accepted here.

could you be a little more clear as to what you are responding to?

[bondom34]

If you ignore offensive benefits sure. Just so we agree this always hurt them. Including the pre 2017 days. But that would require saying something remotely positive, which isn't expected or accepted here.

could you be a little more clear as to what you are responding to?

Oh nothing about nothing.

[bondom34]

If you ignore offensive benefits sure. Just so we agree this always hurt them. Including the pre 2017 days. But that would require saying something remotely positive, which isn't expected or accepted here.

could you be a little more clear as to what you are responding to?

Oh nothing about nothing.

[slick_watts]

If you ignore offensive benefits sure. Just so we agree this always hurt them. Including the pre 2017 days. But that would require saying something remotely positive, which isn't expected or accepted here.

could you be a little more clear as to what you are responding to?

Oh nothing about nothing.

i think this is a very interesting topic of discussion (rw drb and its effect on offense) which only recently has become something that's feasibly 'researchable' using public tools. you don't think so? i mean, you posted the article. you don't think it's interesting or noteworthy that there is significant year to year variance?

it raises another interesting thought i've had in a similar vein. if jerami grant attempts a three in our next game.. what's the expected value of that shot? he's shooting 39% from three this year compared to 29% last year, and 33% career. what's the value of a westbrook defensive rebound to the offense? is it what we've seen this year (negligible), what we saw last year (huge), or the last three years cumulatively? i lean towards the cumulative in both cases with some preferential nudge to recency but its' somewhat subjective with high variance outcomes like this.

[bondom34]

could you be a little more clear as to what you are responding to?

Oh nothing about nothing.

i think this is a very interesting topic of discussion (rw drb and its effect on offense) which only recently has become something that's feasibly 'researchable' using public tools. you don't think so? i mean, you posted the article. you don't think it's interesting or noteworthy that there is significant year to year variance?

it raises another interesting thought i've had in a similar vein. if jerami grant attempts a three in our next game.. what's the expected value of that shot? he's shooting 39% from three this year compared to 29% last year, and 33% career. what's the value of a westbrook defensive rebound to the offense? is it what we've seen this year (negligible), what we saw last year (huge), or the last three years cumulatively? i lean towards the cumulative in both cases with some preferential nudge to recency but its' somewhat subjective with high variance outcomes like this.

It's somewhat interesting. I find more use in how it's worked historically, and generally prefer to discuss elsewhere. .I just don't like to see people clearly either trilling or just derailing everything as Kizz does with constant oh woe is me, the sky is falling type stuff. Other than that I discuss elsewhere tbh

[slick_watts]

Oh nothing about nothing.

i think this is a very interesting topic of discussion (rw drb and its effect on offense) which only recently has become something that's feasibly 'researchable' using public tools. you don't think so? i mean, you posted the article. you don't think it's interesting or noteworthy that there is significant year to year variance?

it raises another interesting thought i've had in a similar vein. if jerami grant attempts a three in our next game.. what's the expected value of that shot? he's shooting 39% from three this year compared to 29% last year, and 33% career. what's the value of a westbrook defensive rebound to the offense? is it what we've seen this year (negligible), what we saw last year (huge), or the last three years cumulatively? i lean towards the cumulative in both cases with some preferential nudge to recency but its' somewhat subjective with high variance outcomes like this.

It's somewhat interesting. I find more use in how it's worked historically, and generally prefer to discuss elsewhere. .I just don't like to see people clearly either trilling or just derailing everything as Kizz does with constant oh woe is me, the sky is falling type stuff. Other than that I discuss elsewhere tbh

my theory on rw drb variance is melo-related but i haven't been able to find any proof.

you can discuss elsewhere but i'm one of the pioneers of researching into this stuff, back to when we had to do it with video clips and excel. pbpstats is spoiling us.

[bondom34]

i think this is a very interesting topic of discussion (rw drb and its effect on offense) which only recently has become something that's feasibly 'researchable' using public tools. you don't think so? i mean, you posted the article. you don't think it's interesting or noteworthy that there is significant year to year variance?

it raises another interesting thought i've had in a similar vein. if jerami grant attempts a three in our next game.. what's the expected value of that shot? he's shooting 39% from three this year compared to 29% last year, and 33% career. what's the value of a westbrook defensive rebound to the offense? is it what we've seen this year (negligible), what we saw last year (huge), or the last three years cumulatively? i lean towards the cumulative in both cases with some preferential nudge to recency but its' somewhat subjective with high variance outcomes like this.

It's somewhat interesting. I find more use in how it's worked historically, and generally prefer to discuss elsewhere. .I just don't like to see people clearly either trilling or just derailing everything as Kizz does with constant oh woe is me, the sky is falling type stuff. Other than that I discuss elsewhere tbh

my theory on rw drb variance is melo-related but i haven't been able to find any proof.

you can discuss elsewhere but i'm one of the pioneers of researching into this stuff, back to when we had to do it with video clips and excel. pbpstats is spoiling us.

Have fun pioneer man. I'll continue to read and dig for info myself.

[slick_watts]

It's somewhat interesting. I find more use in how it's worked historically, and generally prefer to discuss elsewhere. .I just don't like to see people clearly either trilling or just derailing everything as Kizz does with constant oh woe is me, the sky is falling type stuff. Other than that I discuss elsewhere tbh

my theory on rw drb variance is melo-related but i haven't been able to find any proof.

you can discuss elsewhere but i'm one of the pioneers of researching into this stuff, back to when we had to do it with video clips and excel. pbpstats is spoiling us.

Have fun pioneer man. I'll continue to read and dig for info myself.

your reading did not have the interesting and potentially swaying year to year splits. a glaring omission if anyone is seriously researching that data! how would you have come across that information otherwise? my guess is you wouldn't have.

[bondom34]

my theory on rw drb variance is melo-related but i haven't been able to find any proof.

you can discuss elsewhere but i'm one of the pioneers of researching into this stuff, back to when we had to do it with video clips and excel. pbpstats is spoiling us.

Have fun pioneer man. I'll continue to read and dig for info myself.

your reading did not have the interesting and potentially swaying year to year splits. a glaring omission if anyone is seriously researching that data! how would you have come across that information otherwise? my guess is you wouldn't have.

I find a larger sample better. Just me. But that's all. As I said, I'll discuss elsewhere.

[slick_watts]

Have fun pioneer man. I'll continue to read and dig for info myself.

your reading did not have the interesting and potentially swaying year to year splits. a glaring omission if anyone is seriously researching that data! how would you have come across that information otherwise? my guess is you wouldn't have.

I find a larger sample better. Just me. But that's all. As I said, I'll discuss elsewhere.

nah, you'll be back. you always come back. you know where to find the woke takes.

[bondom34]

Nah, only here to disperse general trolling. This place can be yours, I'd rather avoid the "woke takes" with people who already know your act.

[slick_watts]

Nah, only here to disperse general trolling. This place can be yours, I'd rather avoid the "woke takes" with people who already know your act.

you sure you don't wanna talk about westbrook decline being a real thing after you berated me for suggesting it for two years now?

[bondom34]

If you keep saying it, you'll eventually be right. What a brilliant thought. Bye now, but keep trying to spread your word here. It didn't work elsewhere.

[slick_watts]

If you keep saying it, you'll eventually be right. What a brilliant thought. Bye now, but keep trying to spread your word here. It didn't work elsewhere.

every thunder board or community you post on has been influenced by my thoughts over the last decade. you cannot escape.

[bondom34]

Yeah, I can escape being talked down to by you. I have, and bye now.

[slick_watts]

Yeah, I can escape being talked down to by you. I have, and bye now.

says mr. too-good-for-thunder-fandom.

[RalphSampsonJr]

Classic slick and dom back n forths.. how ive missed them!