The third time's the charm - First Round Series vs Portland

Pillendreher · Post #1 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:16 am

Let's talk Playoffs.

Series Schedule:

Regular season games:

1/5: Thunder wins 111-109
1/23: Thunder wins 123-114
2/12: Thunder wins 120-111
3/8: Thunder wins 129-121

Regular season stats (per stats.nba.com):

Portland: 113.6 ORtG (3rd overall) | 109.5 DRtG (16th overall) | +4.1 NetRtG (7th overall)
Thunder: 109.8 ORtG (16th overall) | 106.4 DRtG (4th overall) | +3.4 NetRtG (9th overall)

Impact of Nurkic (per stats.nba.com):

73 games with him: +3.6 on offense, +0.1 on defense
9 games without him: +7.6 on offense, +0.5 on defense

The last 9 games of the season were all against teams way below their level save for the Denver ones (Chicago, Atlanta, Detroit, Minnesota, Memphis, Lakers, Kings).

Synergy Play Type Stats

-Portland averages the 3rd fewest transition possessions per game and has allowed the 6th fewest PPP on opposing transition possessions
-We average the 2nd most isolation possessions per game; meanwhile Portland averages the 9th fewest opposing isolation possessions per game
-All season long they've been an excellent PnR team: 97th percentile in possessions the ball handler finished in the PnR. Defensively, they give up the 3rd most ball handler possessions and the 5th most PPP. Meanwhile we give up the 2nd fewest PnR ball handler PPP. Affecting their PnR will be key.
-The Blazers are just 25th in spot up possessions per game and 22nd in PPP in those possessions on offense. They only average the 28th most defensive spot up possessions though. One has to assume that number will go up in the Playoffs because they will probably let us shoot it.

Things to watch for:

-Jerami Grant finished the season with the highest 3P% on the team. Over the last 25 games he has made 41.9 % of his 3s. Him being able to knock down shots will be key for us.
-Same goes for Ferguson. After his hot 6 week run, he was slumping big time, but he has been knocking down some shots as of late. 41.9 % from over his last 10. When both him and Grant make 3s, our offensive ceiling gets raised significantly.
-Paul George has absolutely killed the Trail Blazers this season: 38.0/10.5/5.5/2.8 on 45.2 % from the field and 45.9 % from 3 (63.4 TS%). I really hope he can keep that up somewhat, because he has been the main difference maker this season against Portland.
-With Nurkic out, the team will have to go at Kanter every single possession. He can't handle Adams. We need to take advantage of that. Make them make defensive adjustments. As soon as they try to make up for the lack of Nurkic, that should open up other things offensively.
-The bench will need to steady the ship somewhat. The Blazers have a couple of "energy guys" on their bench. We can't compete in a shootout with our bench, which means defense will be very important. During the regular season, our defense has been stellar with our bench on the floor vs Portland: 92.9 DRtG with Noel on the floor.

One of these two teams will finally get out of the first round. This is our chance. Let's do it.

Pillendreher · Post #2 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:24 am

77 % to make it out of the 1st round, 49 % to make it out of the 2nd round (ie 64 % to beat our 2nd round matchup). I'll take it.

Post #3 » by **retrobro90** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 7:51 am

I think Kanter won't play all that much honestly. Collins/Leonard probably take a lot of those minutes or at least I would do that if I were Stotts. I think we struggle against 5s that can stretch. Especially if Adams is hobbled and can't switch or hedge and recover.

Pillendreher · Post #4 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:12 am

retrobro90 wrote:I think Kanter won't play all that much honestly. Collins/Leonard probably take a lot of those minutes or at least I would do that if I were Stotts. I think we struggle against 5s that can stretch. Especially if Adams is hobbled and can't switch or hedge and recover.

I could live with that as well. Collins can't really shoot (he's 99/334 from 10+ feet in the first two seasons of hid career) and while Leonard is a guy that can drain a 3, he'd have to be a volume shooter and maker to make up for Adams' advantage on the interior, which isn't really his game. Hell, if you could steer Portland towards a much more prominent Leonard, it'd be excellent for us.

Post #5 » by **Dadouv47** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 9:54 am

Thunder up!

Time to PG13 to get better from his shoulder, Adams to be ok and Russ to hit his shots.

NaturalThunder · Post #6 » by **NaturalThunder** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:13 am

Cannot believe I wake up to finding out the Blazers won and are our first round matchup. When I went to bed the last score I saw was 87-62, Kings winning.

The Blazers rolled out basically their G-League squad, only played 6 players, all five starters played 40+ minutes, three players played all 48, and they still erased a 25 point halftime deficit.

JustOneFix · Post #7 » by **JustOneFix** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:24 am

I'm still in complete disbelif how this turned out. We got the team in the first round that we beat 4-0 this season and GS is on the other side of the bracket. This is beyond my wildest and most optimistic expectations...

hardenASG13 · Post #8 » by **hardenASG13** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:37 am

JustOneFix wrote:I'm still in complete disbelif how this turned out. We got the team in the first round that we beat 4-0 this season and GS is on the other side of the bracket. This is beyond my wildest and most optimistic expectations...

Dont forget that houston also is in the other half. Dream scenario, especially with Westbrook and grant playing so well, and Ferguson coming back around. Schroeder has shown that he likely will take over a game or 2 in a 7 game series as well, which is why he's such a weapon off the bench, a notion this board has been against for some reason all year. Those regular season numbers you've killed him on mean absolutely 0 as of today.

Slick, you said they'd be an underdog here. They are not. Take my bet! OKC wins the series you go away forever, portland wins I do the same. Back up the talk, okc has Westbrook at point and Schroeder at 6th man.....lets go!

Pillendreher · Post #9 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:38 am

Team ORtG vs combined 3 pt makes for Ferguson and Grant this season:

0-3 makes from 3: 108.0 team ORtG
>= 4 makes from 3: 116.7 team ORtG

Those two will get open shots and they will have to make them.

hardenASG13 · Post #10 » by **hardenASG13** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:40 am

hardenASG13 wrote:
JustOneFix wrote:I'm still in complete disbelif how this turned out. We got the team in the first round that we beat 4-0 this season and GS is on the other side of the bracket. This is beyond my wildest and most optimistic expectations...

Dont forget that houston also is in the other half. Dream scenario, especially with Westbrook and grant playing so well, and Ferguson coming back around. Schroeder has shown that he likely will take over a game or 2 in a 7 game series as well, which is why he's such a weapon off the bench, a notion this board has been against for some reason all year. Those regular season numbers you've killed him on mean absolutely 0 as of today. Can he get hot in a playoff game or 2 per series? That's is and has been all that matters. No reason to think he cant.

Slick, you said they'd be an underdog here. They are not. Take my bet! OKC wins the series you go away forever, portland wins I do the same. Back up the talk, okc has Westbrook at point and Schroeder at 6th man.....lets go!

Post #11 » by **Dadouv47** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:06 pm

Please rename the thread. I loved it but it makes me nervous. Every nice/optimista thread name turns into a nightmare scenario

Bergmaniac · Post #12 » by **Bergmaniac** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:08 pm

Big chance for you, I hope you will be able to take it, I am rooting for you in the West. Portland shouldn't be underestimated though even with Nurkic out.

Pillendreher · Post #13 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 12:21 pm

hardenASG13 wrote:Schroeder has shown that he likely will take over a game or 2 in a 7 game series as well, which is why he's such a weapon off the bench, a notion this board has been against for some reason all year. Those regular season numbers you've killed him on mean absolutely 0 as of today. Can he get hot in a playoff game or 2 per series? That's is and has been all that matters. No reason to think he cant.

This is simple maths any adult should be capable of doing and understanding. Dennis Schröder will play a finite amount of games this postseason. His regular season indicates that we'll get a lot of up and down performances from him. And even though you fail to acknowledge this, it's not just the good performances that matter. It's the whole package.

Let's say we beat them in 6 and Schröder has two games in which he "gets hot" while playing like his more usual than some people want to admit bad self in the other four. Those two most likely will not be enough for him bricking shots left and right in the other four. His post ASB performance illustrates this issue perfectly:

He's had a couple of games in which he was great offensively, but he's also had so many horrible ones that those great games are simply overshadowed. League average is at 56 TS% and Schröder has been at 48.2 since the ASB. Every time we don't get "Hot Schröder", it hurts the team in a way that goes beyond simple volatility because Schröder is not a 15 minutes off the bench kind of guy, but a 30+ minutes kind of guy. And when his shot doesn't fall, he's a big fat negative on the court since you're not getting surplus value defensively from him either.

Thundershock88 · Post #14 » by **Thundershock88** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 2:21 pm

We SHOULD win this series. With that said, we SHOULD have beaten the Jazz last year too. This is going to be an intense series. Lot of bad blood between these guys.

thekaoswithin · Post #15 » by **thekaoswithin** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:44 pm

Our starters are better at every position (except SG), and with shorter rotation that's the biggest factor. We can do this as long as role players hit their shots.

Post #16 » by **Dadouv47** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 3:50 pm

Thundershock88 wrote:We SHOULD win this series. With that said, we SHOULD have beaten the Jazz last year too. This is going to be an intense series. Lot of bad blood between these guys.

That's what worries me the most. Our team is all about extra motivation against great teams (on the other hand the Blazers will play with less pressure because losing without Nurkic is pretty normal). At least we have a big rivalry with the Blazers which I hope should motivate Russ (and the rest of the team as well).

OfficialRef · Post #17 » by **OfficialRef** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:17 pm

we win this easily. I can see us dropping a game but thats it.

Kanter will get abused in pnr by george and westbrook and they have NO ONE that can handle russ

Pillendreher · Post #18 » by **Pillendreher** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:31 pm

Read on Twitter

Post #19 » by **ThunderBolt** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:41 pm

OfficialRef wrote:we win this easily. I can see us dropping a game but thats it.

Kanter will get abused in pnr by george and westbrook and they have NO ONE that can handle russ

“We”?

Post #20 » by **slick_watts** » Thu Apr 11, 2019 4:45 pm

if adams can hold up playing the minutes we will need him to play i think we could win in six games. portland will do their best to abuse westbrook and ferguson defensively. no nurkic is good but portland hasn't rolled over and died without him either. really, a lot rides on what our high variance backcourt players end up doing-- and that's gonna be the story for any playoff series.