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AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway?

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AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#1 » by Instincts » Thu Apr 11, 2019 8:14 pm

AG's Season:

GP MPG FG% 3P% FT% REB AST BLK STL PF TO PTS
78 33.8 44.9 34.9 73.1 7.4 3.7 0.7 0.7 2.2 2.1 16.0

Still battling inconsistency of youth, but as a whole I am very pleased with AG's continued improvement this season.

- With his contact year behind him, AG returned to his team oriented nature, with a focus on becoming an efficient player two way player.
- Assist totals and play making took a large step forward.
- Drive game has progressed, still has room to improve, but signs are flashing that he will figure this out as well. He has a variety of moves, is seeing the floor better, and is being more decisive in his drive. One thing that is bothering is his lack of ability to extend/ stretch arm forward for a layup, he always seems inclined to bring the ball back over his head resulting in missing easy finish opportunities.

See highlights below from one game. Last nights game. The year over year improvement is drastic. And i did not include the elite dunks, put backs, and improved shooting as that is expected at this point. The below highlights only focus on the drive and post game.

1) Jab step to quick drive - :48 mark
2) Decisive post spin - 1:03 mark
3) Slow euro step drive - 2:13 mark
4) Power drive - 3:39 mark



I have heard others complain about AG's mid range fade away, I personally think it will become a weapon. It is a very difficult shot to defend with his athleticism and it is becoming more and more consistent.

I will restate my opinion AG will see at least one all star game ( a definable litmus test for a star) and that he still has a percentage chance of a much higher ceiling. A lot will depend if his shooting percentages can take another step forward in the next two years and whether the drive game continues to improve. I realize no one is untouchable, but I have a hard time fathoming a trade of AG, his high floor and higher ceiling simply present to much value to this rebuilding franchise.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#2 » by Knightro » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:13 pm

This is going to be a polarizing thread.

Areas Gordon improved this season
-Passing vision
-Willingness to pass
-Willingness to defend (his actual defense hasn't improved much, he just didn't commit to that end or give nearly as much effort the last two years)

Areas Gordon did not improve this season
-Shooting
-Ball handling
-Shot creation
-Rebounding
-Decision making

We are five years into this thing. Could AG develop more? Maybe he can. Oladipo did. It's not impossible.

But it's more likely that Gordon is what he is at this point. He's a good cutter, good in transition, solid defender, solid rebounder, solid passer, decent shooter but he's not spectacular at much of anything.

He's on a very fair declining contract, but he's certainly not a star and I just don't see the ball handling chops for him to ever be a star.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#3 » by JF5 » Thu Apr 11, 2019 11:31 pm

This is going to be a touchy subject...

I feel like AG is close to his max potential. His shooting and IQ will improve but everything else will not...

-He still barely has an tangible offensive game outside of cutting and spotting up.
-His shooting is still pretty sub-optimal... I thought his efficiency would get better but it didn't. I think that he'll shoot better once he cuts out the inefficient shots he takes by either taking it to the rim or shooting the 3 (Comes with better BBIQ).
-Ball-handling still really isn't that good.

The shots you see him taking in the highlights are the shots he's been taking for the last 3 seasons. Some games you'll see him make them but overall he's atrocious at converting at them at a consistent level.

What I will say is that he's improved as a team player overall. His defense is better, his passing is better, and he's playing more to his strengths. hopefully he keeps on improving... But it just seems after 5 years of development that this is what he'll essentially be which is not a bad thing.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#4 » by fendilim » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:06 am

Shot seection has been better.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#5 » by BadMofoPimp » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:16 am

Knightro wrote:This is going to be a polarizing thread.

Areas Gordon improved this season
-Passing vision
-Willingness to pass
-Willingness to defend (his actual defense hasn't improved much, he just didn't commit to that end or give nearly as much effort the last two years)

Areas Gordon did not improve this season
-Shooting
-Ball handling
-Shot creation
-Rebounding
-Decision making

We are five years into this thing. Could AG develop more? Maybe he can. Oladipo did. It's not impossible.

But it's more likely that Gordon is what he is at this point. He's a good cutter, good in transition, solid defender, solid rebounder, solid passer, decent shooter but he's not spectacular at much of anything.

He's on a very fair declining contract, but he's certainly not a star and I just don't see the ball handling chops for him to ever be a star.


If Aaaron shot better from the field, the 3 and FT line, then how can you say he did not improve shooting.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#6 » by BadHombre » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:19 am

This thread won't go anywhere constructive. A lot of people have already formed a hardline position on Gordon that he's capped out, hasn't improved from what he was, and won't improve further, whilst others are adamant that his game will continue to mature and improve.

That's pretty much the summary of anything to come. Let's check back in after 3 seasons and see what's happening.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#7 » by Knightro » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:26 am

BadMofoPimp wrote:If Aaaron shot better from the field, the 3 and FT line, then how can you say he did not improve shooting.


I mean technically his shooting improved, but his TS% and eFG% both improved by such marginal levels that they’re basically flat.

eFG% went from .500 last year to .507. Less than one percent improvement.

TS% went from .530 last year to .538 this year. Again less than one percent improvement.

Under 1% is not really tangible improvement.

Plus his eFG% and TS% this season we’re both actually lower than they were when he was a 2nd year player and only about half a percentage point in both cases higher than his career marks.

Long story short, his shooting has stayed consistently the same over the last four years. Pretty much within 1%.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#8 » by pinoynurse » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:51 am

not sure if he can improve much scoring wise. If he does, i see him more as a post up fade away small forward ala andrew wiggins. Just doesnt have the ball handling ability. Shooting may or not may not improve. Love his work ethic just not sure if that can overcome his poor mechanics
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#9 » by Knightro » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:05 am

Like many others have said, the bigger issue for Gordon is ball handling more than shooting.

He’s not an awful shooter. He’s pretty consistently a slightly below average shooter. It’s not out of the question he could improve with enough reps and mechanical work to be a solidly average/above average shooter.

Ball handling is his issue. That’s just not a skill that typically improves dramatically once you get into the pros and especially not 6 years into your career like AG will be next season.

He just doesn’t have the ability to consistently get to spots using his handle.

If it isn’t happening by year 5, it’s probably just not happening. That pretty dramatically limits his overall ceiling as an offensive player as he would need to greatly improve his shooting to make up for the fact his ball handling is very likely never going to be that good.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#10 » by MagicStarwipe » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:46 am

Absolutely nothing to be down on about AG. Came into the league as an awful shooter and is now a legit threat and solid FT shooter. He has always had decent passing ability and he's finally starting to unlock that in the NBA. Hopefully he keeps that up. His decision making has gotten a lot better. His defense is extremely good. At 23, I see no reason why he won't continue to improve.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#11 » by Xatticus » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:57 am

I'm happy with the season he has had. There is an old saying in soccer that you don't start to learn the tactics of the game until your legs start to go. It's pretty common for young players that are blessed with exceptional athleticism to rely on that aspect of their game excessively. This is the first season in which I think we saw clear evidence of tactical growth from Gordon.

He is vastly improved as a shooter over where he was in his first few seasons, even though it hasn't manifested in demonstrable improvement in his metrics. His metrics in his first couple years were buoyed by the high percentage of his field goal attempts at the rim. He is still getting those shots, but the breadth of his offensive game has expanded. He can score from more spots on the floor. His usage has climbed without his efficiency taking a hit.

His offensive awareness has improved substantially. He is now looking to facilitate for others. He uses switches to bludgeon smaller defenders. He has been rock solid at the defensive end for most of the year. I look forward to seeing if he continues to grow next year.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#12 » by J_Magic » Fri Apr 12, 2019 4:53 am

Gordon's passing game has opened up his entire game. Shots are easier when he continues to make the right plays. He'll never be a premier scorer like Tmac, but he can be a Pippen style player.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#13 » by NEM » Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:13 am

AG has a great year. Showed a lot of improvement as far as play making and slowing down. He’s destined to be an elite role player and that’s what we need from him, especially if we keep vooch, JI continues his upward trend, and Fultz ends up panning out. He’ll be a better version of draymond green. Or like draymond/Marion hybrid
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#14 » by pepe1991 » Fri Apr 12, 2019 6:34 am

There are 71 guys in nba this year who averaged at least 15,00 ppg.
Scoring in general is inflated this days like crazy. Ayton is averaging 16 ppg ,10 rpg and probably won't get any ROY votes, just goes to show you how crazy numbers of individual players are.

Gordon's advance stats are not really different from previous year. Knightro already mentioned TS and eFG so i won't, but when you look where he is ranked against other PFs ( where ESPN ranks him) you get better picture:
22# among PFs in real plus minus
34th in PER
50# in TS%
47th in rebounding percentage

among 69 players that played that position, he doesn't rank in any standings among elite players.
if you compare his numbers to SFs , he gets ranked even lower.

Let's see what he can do in playoffs. But "potential" should be thing of a past , guy will next year be 24 while playing his 6th nba season with over 340 games played. There is always chance of some overtime miracle but at some point you have to come with grips of reality and accept him for what he is, not what you want him to be.

As for improved passer, i don't know how much he actually improved and how much of assist boosts comes to dumping ball to Vučević. If you look at APGs , Gordon,Evan and Dj are having huge improvments in that category. DJ with only 4 mpg more went from 3,8 apg to 5,3. Evan went from 2,9 to 3,6.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#15 » by MagicFrenchie » Fri Apr 12, 2019 12:30 pm

Well I guess we'll know more after that series.
who knows maybe he was saving his best and is gonna drop 30 /10 average on them dinosaurs.
One can hope.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#16 » by Knightro » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:09 pm

I'm afraid my tone is coming off like I'm knocking AG and I'm really not.

Outside of Vucevic, he's definitely the Magic's most consistent two-way player.

He's better defensively than Augustin, Fournier and Ross
He's better offensively than Isaac, Iwundu and MCW

I just don't really see much more significant growth to be had.

His ball handling just isn't strong enough for him to make a dramatic leap as an offensive player.

His shooting has been a steady plateau in the 50-51% eFG and 53-54% TS% over the last four years. I do think shooting is generally a lot easier to improve compared to ball handling, so AG could still make some gains as a shooter, but I don't expect anything dramatic there either.

Gordon's already in phenomenal shape and is already an extremely hard worker, so I don't think we're going to see an Oladipo-like leap where his game improves via working harder in the gym and getting into the best shape of his life.

He's just a very solid, relatively unspectacular positive contributing two-way player. Gordon doesn't hurt you on either end of the floor and he makes 19.8M, 18.1M and 16.4M over the next three years, his age 24-25-26 seasons. It's an extremely fair contract for his production.

I would only trade him if it made major sense (aka dramatically upgrading the backcourt).
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#17 » by NBlue » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:40 pm

If you are looking at AG as a 4 I think its absurd to suggest that his ball handling is poor. Relative to other 4s he is a very good ball handler -- certainly well above average.

Also, let's talk a bit about those assists. Yes, certainly, I think Cliff's system has helped to improve AG's assists as it has the team across the board but I find it a bit silly to dismiss them that easily. Among power forwards averaging 28 mpg or more (starters) AG is tied for THIRD amongst power forward in assist ratio (behind only Draymond and Giannis and tied with Blake). I do think that is a significant statistic and one that is also a significant improvement.

I think the primary issue so many here and elsewhere want to look at him more as a 3. That's not really what he does on offense. He can play there, sure, and he guards 3s all the time (not to mention 2s, 5s and even 1s). He can do just about everything defensively - and its true that he is not nearly as good offensively as he is on defense. But numbers and the eye test demonstrate that he has gotten so much more comfortable passing the ball on offense. And one thing that has not been pointed out is that his offensive game has clearly developed as the season as moved along and Cliff has placed him in more of a defined role. As he has that continuity moving forward into next year I would definitely expect him to make strides in all aspects of his game.

And can we please remember that AG IS 23 YEARS OLD! Yes, he has been in the NBA for 5 years but he is still only 23 and won't reach his prime for another 4 years or so. By contrast Oladipo is a full 3 years and 4 months older and at AG's age he was still toiling in Orlando under Skiles - wasn't until almost 2 years later that he broke out -- at the age of 25 in Indy. If you have watched AG this year and haven't seen the improvements he has made I think its hard to have a reasonable conversation about it.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#18 » by Catledge » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:48 pm

Knightro wrote:I'm afraid my tone is coming off like I'm knocking AG and I'm really not.

Outside of Vucevic, he's definitely the Magic's most consistent two-way player.

He's better defensively than Augustin, Fournier and Ross
He's better offensively than Isaac, Iwundu and MCW

I just don't really see much more significant growth to be had.

His ball handling just isn't strong enough for him to make a dramatic leap as an offensive player.

His shooting has been a steady plateau in the 50-51% eFG and 53-54% TS% over the last four years. I do think shooting is generally a lot easier to improve compared to ball handling, so AG could still make some gains as a shooter, but I don't expect anything dramatic there either.

Gordon's already in phenomenal shape and is already an extremely hard worker, so I don't think we're going to see an Oladipo-like leap where his game improves via working harder in the gym and getting into the best shape of his life.

He's just a very solid, relatively unspectacular positive contributing two-way player. Gordon doesn't hurt you on either end of the floor and he makes 19.8M, 18.1M and 16.4M over the next three years, his age 24-25-26 seasons. It's an extremely fair contract for his production.

I would only trade him if it made major sense (aka dramatically upgrading the backcourt).


I think it is very likely that Gordon will continue to improve at least marginally, meaning that he is likely to get slightly better at the things he is already decent at.

And I agree that the Oladipo-like leap isn't very likely, but it's worth noting that people said almost the exact sames things about Oladipo before he made his leap. Dipo's ball handling, shooting, rim finishing, and decision making were all cited as reasons for why he had hit his ceiling. Lots of people had similarly inaccurate views on Harris, and pretty much everybody (including me) had given up hope on Vooch making the kind of leap he made this year.

This is why I feel that people are overstating things a bit when they say that he is who he is at this point. I'll grant that hoping for major improvements is a long shot, but it's a long shot among many other possible long shots (like tanking for the next Lebron or singing a big FA), and it's one we get to take while paying fair value for his current production and not having to tank.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#19 » by NBlue » Fri Apr 12, 2019 1:54 pm

pepe1991 wrote:
Gordon's advance stats are not really different from previous year. Knightro already mentioned TS and eFG so i won't, but when you look where he is ranked against other PFs ( where ESPN ranks him) you get better picture:
22# among PFs in real plus minus
34th in PER
50# in TS%
47th in rebounding percentage

among 69 players that played that position, he doesn't rank in any standings among elite players.
if you compare his numbers to SFs , he gets ranked even lower.



Hmmmmmmm.......

Under your analysis Draymond must be a pretty terrible power forward. I see he is 50th in PER, 59th in TS% and 40th in rebounding percentage. Its amazing that the dude even in the NBA.

That, or perhaps you are using these stats in an absurd fashion. The top 4 TS% in the league at the 4 are Dwight Powell, Meyers Leonard, Richaun Holmes and Cheick Diallo and, not to take anything away from those guys, but its absurd to take in that statistic along with the others and not consider the greater picture.

You have consistently not thought highly AG's basketball contributions over an extended period and I think you are entitled to your opinion on that and -- not just that -- there are a lot of people around the league and in our own fanbase that feel the same way. That said, your analysis here is a bit silly.
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Re: AG's Regular Season Review: Still improving, how much more runway? 

Post#20 » by swarlesbarkley » Fri Apr 12, 2019 2:13 pm

I like where AG is at. Not looking at any numbers, I like that he is a guy who can get hot and put up 30/40 point games but even when his shot isn't falling or he's not being aggressive, he still contributes with his defense, rebounds, and now his passing. Maybe he's not a star but he's the type of player you need on a winning team AND he gives us some cool highlight dunks (ESPN exposure). Plus, he's still super young so who knows what he becomes in 3-4 years.

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