2018-19 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[bondom34]

Giannis/Brook: 99.9 DRtg

Giannis/no Brook: 96.1

Brook no Giannis 101.1

So why's Brook the better defender? This seems like a weird one to argue against Giannis.

Because this isn’t a strong enough argument by itself? All sorts of things could be causing these numbers that ave nothing to do with the quality of players involved themselves. There have been strong arguments posited in Lopez’ favor and this doesn’t do anything to refute them other than be a useful data point to consider.

Giannis leading in DRAPM, DRPM, DPIPM, and his lineups look better seems to be a pretty comprehensive argument. Giannis without Lopez is still an elite defense, so crediting Lopez with this improvement doesn't seem to do anything but try to discredit him when he's been better by pretty much every measure.

Giannis is also better in opponent FG%, deflections, and using PBP stats holding them to a worse opponent shot quality. Lopez has improved, he's not close to this discussion though.

[eminence]

"There is a good argument he is the best defender on the best defensive team in the league."

I'll disagree with this one, as Lopez clearly doesn't play for the Jazz

[Dr Spaceman]

Giannis/Brook: 99.9 DRtg

Giannis/no Brook: 96.1

Brook no Giannis 101.1

So why's Brook the better defender? This seems like a weird one to argue against Giannis.

Because this isn’t a strong enough argument by itself? All sorts of things could be causing these numbers that ave nothing to do with the quality of players involved themselves. There have been strong arguments posited in Lopez’ favor and this doesn’t do anything to refute them other than be a useful data point to consider.

Giannis leading in DRAPM, DRPM, DPIPM, and his lineups look better seems to be a pretty comprehensive argument. Giannis without Lopez is still an elite defense, so crediting Lopez with this improvement doesn't seem to do anything but try to discredit him when he's been better by pretty much every measure.

Giannis is also better in opponent FG%, deflections, and using PBP stats holding them to a worse opponent shot quality. Lopez has improved, he's not close to this discussion though.

Lopez missed 1 game this year which means the Giannis on/Brook off this year is basically exclusively bench minutes. I know the more advanced plus/minus stuff is meant to account for this but it’s not perfect and doubly so when players spend 70% of their minutes together (as Lopez does with Giannis). Lopez spends a higher proportion of his minutes playing against starters than Giannis does which is typical of a low minute starter and so while it’s clear Giannis can replicate some of what zLopez does (minus the rebounding) it’s not clear he’d scale the same way they do together.

I don’t know why this has to be taken as me trying to “discredit” Giannis. Good players deserved to be praised and Lopez’ play has been very praise-worthy. It is as strange to me as it is to you that Lopez finds himself in the DPOY discussion but he does and he’d still be in the discussion even if it turns out he’s second best on his team because the gap between the two isn’t big in either direction (as Colvini indicated by having Giannis 4th)

[E-Balla]

Reggie had seasons where he could be ranked that high offensively. Hell in 95 you could argue he was a top 1 offensive player. 25.5 playoff points per game on +9 rTS is literally Steph Curry-level scoring production.

You haven’t made a case for why Brook’s limitations don’t allow him to be this good defensively, you just said “he has these limitations so he’s not that good”. He excels in the areas that are most important for a defense throughout the whole history of the game.

I think the gap here is that his point is that Giannis covers for Brook allowing him to impact the game as much as he does. So while Brook excels at rebounding and defending the rim, he's well below average in other areas but Giannis is so dominant horizontally and vertically they can cover for it. If Brook is killed on a PNR, Giannis is one of the top 10 rim defenders in the league and one of the top 5 help defenders so when looking at overall impact what you're seeing when you see Brook is a player with all his negatives negated and all his positives still positives. Let's say on an average team Brook would save them 6 baskets a game but give up 4 for an overall +2 basket impact, on the Bucks he's saving them 6 baskets a game while giving up only 1 because Giannis and the rest of the team can save those other 3 Brook would normally give up.

Personally I think with the low minutes of the other top defenders he could sneak into the top 5 for voting but he's clearly under Giannis, PG, Gobert, and Turner IMO. Maybe he tops Siakam.

Does Giannis also not get enabled by having Brook out there? With a back line defender of Lopz’s Caliber you can be much more aggressive in help and press tighter on shooters and especially work the passing lanes more which is exactly what Giannis has done this year. With more backline responsibility Giannis probably doesn’t have the season he’s having either. They’re very synergistic in that way.

And it’s not like Giannis doesn’t have weaknesses covered by the scheme. He can’t get over a screen but the Bucks have 3 excellent point of attack defenders in Bledsoe, Middleton and Brogdon so Giannis gets to cover the worst perimeter player and play free safety helping off that guy.

Agreed they're synergistic completely but Giannis could do just fine without Brook, like I said he's one of the top rim defenders in the league. He'd make less positive plays without Brook around but I don't think he'd make more negative plays.

As far as going over screens goes it's easy to forget but he's a bigman because of everything else he does. Going over screens is a weakness for literally every bigman defender in the league right now, I don't think that example was particularly good considering it can be said about every DPOY candidate to a worse extent outside of PG.

[Colbinii]

Lopez is elite at challenging shots at the rim and boxing out.But the Bucks scheme around his slow legs.He is basically told to drop back in the paint every time and wait to challenge players there.
His numbers are so good because the Bucks don't ask him to do what he can't.They put him in a position to succeed and he excels at it.
But that doesn't mean he is the 3rd best defender in the league.

So, a few things.

1) If I were to say the things I value most on defense are challenging shots and the rim and boxing out [which, let's be honest, are vital for a great defense] then wouldn't I have a great platform already presented to form an argument on?

2) Rudy Gobert isn't asked to challenge players at the perimeter. Is he not your best defensive player? Because to me he fits the bill of "elite at challenging shots at the rim and boxing out".

[bondom34]

Because this isn’t a strong enough argument by itself? All sorts of things could be causing these numbers that ave nothing to do with the quality of players involved themselves. There have been strong arguments posited in Lopez’ favor and this doesn’t do anything to refute them other than be a useful data point to consider.

Giannis leading in DRAPM, DRPM, DPIPM, and his lineups look better seems to be a pretty comprehensive argument. Giannis without Lopez is still an elite defense, so crediting Lopez with this improvement doesn't seem to do anything but try to discredit him when he's been better by pretty much every measure.

Giannis is also better in opponent FG%, deflections, and using PBP stats holding them to a worse opponent shot quality. Lopez has improved, he's not close to this discussion though.

Lopez missed 1 game this year which means the Giannis on/Brook off this year is basically exclusively bench minutes. I know the more advanced plus/minus stuff is meant to account for this but it’s not perfect and doubly so when players spend 70% of their minutes together (as Lopez does with Giannis). Lopez spends a higher proportion of his minutes playing against starters than Giannis does which is typical of a low minute starter and so while it’s clear Giannis can replicate some of what zLopez does (minus the rebounding) it’s not clear he’d scale the same way they do together.

I don’t know why this has to be taken as me trying to “discredit” Giannis. Good players deserved to be praised and Lopez’ play has been very praise-worthy. It is as strange to me as it is to you that Lopez finds himself in the DPOY discussion but he does and he’d still be in the discussion even if it turns out he’s second best on his team because the gap between the two isn’t big in either direction (as Colvini indicated by having Giannis 4th)

Lopez does deserve credit, but when he's been not the best defender on his own team by most every metric I'm not seeing how he's getting more credit than the better defender. Giannis also spends about an equal time per game w/o Brook as Brook w/o him, so they're going against relatively similar competition (and as you said APM tries to account for this). Adding to that Giannis can guard the perimeter and pick and roll and that he's scaled from being on the best defense a year ago without Brook to the best now with him, and that Lopez's backup has been one of Ersan/Wilson a fair portion of the year and Ersan's on court D rating is pretty similar to Lopez without Giannis, their scheme seems built to cover these guys. Giannis has been the difference in them being just a "good" defense to a great one. Lopez being better than he was doesn't really bring him close to Giannis, and going by what I'm hearing/reading from things scouts seem to indicate the same.

[Colbinii]

"There is a good argument he is the best defender on the best defensive team in the league."

I'll disagree with this one, as Lopez clearly doesn't play for the Jazz

Or the Timberwolves.

[Texas Chuck]

Lopez is elite at challenging shots at the rim and boxing out.But the Bucks scheme around his slow legs.He is basically told to drop back in the paint every time and wait to challenge players there.
His numbers are so good because the Bucks don't ask him to do what he can't.They put him in a position to succeed and he excels at it.
But that doesn't mean he is the 3rd best defender in the league.

So, a few things.

1) If I were to say the things I value most on defense are challenging shots and the rim and boxing out [which, let's be honest, are vital for a great defense] then wouldn't I have a great platform already presented to form an argument on?

2) Rudy Gobert isn't asked to challenge players at the perimeter. Is he not your best defensive player? Because to me he fits the bill of "elite at challenging shots at the rim and boxing out".

Gobert defends and shows out on the perimeter much more effectively than BroLo. He's also superior in the role of traditional rim protector. I don't believe you should really use him to justify BroLo's case.

BroLo has always been good in the areas you mention, but DPOY caliber? In relatively limited minutes? I think we are losing ourselves in some numbers when we start including solid guys like him over truly elite defenders.

[Colbinii]

Lopez is elite at challenging shots at the rim and boxing out.But the Bucks scheme around his slow legs.He is basically told to drop back in the paint every time and wait to challenge players there.
His numbers are so good because the Bucks don't ask him to do what he can't.They put him in a position to succeed and he excels at it.
But that doesn't mean he is the 3rd best defender in the league.

So, a few things.

1) If I were to say the things I value most on defense are challenging shots and the rim and boxing out [which, let's be honest, are vital for a great defense] then wouldn't I have a great platform already presented to form an argument on?

2) Rudy Gobert isn't asked to challenge players at the perimeter. Is he not your best defensive player? Because to me he fits the bill of "elite at challenging shots at the rim and boxing out".

Gobert defends and shows out on the perimeter much more effectively than BroLo. He's also superior in the role of traditional rim protector. I don't believe you should really use him to justify BroLo's case.

BroLo has always been good in the areas you mention, but DPOY caliber? In relatively limited minutes? I think we are losing ourselves in some numbers when we start including solid guys like him over truly elite defenders.

Gobert is much better when coming out of the paint, but he is also in a league of his own [and a focus Draymond Green] when looking at defenders in the current NBA. As for rim protection, I don't think the gap between Lopez and Gobert is as large as one might think [which Gobert having a clear edge].

Who do you think are the truly elite defenders that I am missing?

[Texas Chuck]

Who do you think are the truly elite defenders that I am missing?

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

[E-Balla]

Who do you think are the truly elite defenders that I am missing?

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

Those Nets teams were dreadful because he didn't even box out back then, just didn't board. Now he rebounds and it's made a huge difference. I still don't think he's 3rd or arguably third but he's on the 2nd tier of defensive players.

[Colbinii]

Who do you think are the truly elite defenders that I am missing?

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

Those Nets teams were dreadful because he didn't even box out back then, just didn't board. Now he rebounds and it's made a huge difference. I still don't think he's 3rd or arguably third but he's on the 2nd tier of defensive players.

That's fair. The only guys I have on a pedestal above everyone are Gobert and Draymond. Then I have about 5 guys real close.

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[E-Balla]

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

Those Nets teams were dreadful because he didn't even box out back then, just didn't board. Now he rebounds and it's made a huge difference. I still don't think he's 3rd or arguably third but he's on the 2nd tier of defensive players.

That's fair. The only guys I have on a pedestal above everyone are Gobert and Draymond. Then I have about 5 guys real close.

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No PG?

[Colbinii]

Those Nets teams were dreadful because he didn't even box out back then, just didn't board. Now he rebounds and it's made a huge difference. I still don't think he's 3rd or arguably third but he's on the 2nd tier of defensive players.

That's fair. The only guys I have on a pedestal above everyone are Gobert and Draymond. Then I have about 5 guys real close.

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No PG?

I struggle with him as he isnt a great rim protector. I have him with Covington, Danny Green, Marc Gasol, Brook Lopez and Myles Turner.

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[E-Balla]

That's fair. The only guys I have on a pedestal above everyone are Gobert and Draymond. Then I have about 5 guys real close.

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No PG?

I struggle with him as he isnt a great rim protector. I have him with Covington, Danny Green, Marc Gasol, Brook Lopez and Myles Turner.

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When it comes to being a rim protector I always see it as an easy path to being a great defender, but not the only path. PG leads the league in deflections with 3.8 a game, steals with 2.2 a game, loose balls recovered with 2.1 a game, is 5th in contested shots per game among non bigs, leads the league in DRAPM by a distance (the gap between him and Giannis in 2nd place is equal to the gap between Giannis and Chris Paul at 13 which makes this the best non Deke single season DRAPM ever by z-score), and there's a 200 minute gap between him and the next DPOY candidate... Honestly I might've just convinced myself PG should easily be the DPOY.

[ShotCreator]

Who do you think are the truly elite defenders that I am missing?

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

You can make the exact same argument against Giannis.

[Texas Chuck]

Who do you think are the truly elite defenders that I am missing?

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

You can make the exact same argument against Giannis.

Can you? You don't think Giannis' game is growing in ways BroLo's at this point isn't? I think it's different though maybe I'm being unfair to Lopez due to his age. I'm open to debate here.

No doubt Giannis benefited from a much more competent head coach(as did Lopez), but we've seen Lopez play for much longer and it's more established the impact he's able to have--at least imo.

I wouldn't have Giannis as my DPOY either btw---that's Rudy Gobert for me. But if you were asking me to rate the most important reasons behind the great defense of the Bucks this year it would be:

Giannis
Bud
Lopez

[Colbinii]

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

You can make the exact same argument against Giannis.

Can you? You don't think Giannis' game is growing in ways BroLo's at this point isn't? I think it's different though maybe I'm being unfair to Lopez due to his age. I'm open to debate here.

No doubt Giannis benefited from a much more competent head coach(as did Lopez), but we've seen Lopez play for much longer and it's more established the impact he's able to have--at least imo.

I wouldn't have Giannis as my DPOY either btw---that's Rudy Gobert for me. But if you were asking me to rate the most important reasons behind the great defense of the Bucks this year it would be:

Giannis
Bud
Lopez

You have the gap between Lopez and Giannis to be large enough that you can quantify Bud's impact as a coach and insert it between the two players?

I mean, I have Giannis and Lopez as 1a/1b.

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[Dr Spaceman]

I wouldn't say you are missing them, but having BroLo at 3rd imo has him ahead of clearly superior defensive players.

I don't mind the BroLo love. He's been a criminally underrated player for a long time. But I just can't buy that he's the 3rd best defender in the league. Lakers were surprisingly solid defensive last year and he deserves some of the credit for that, but those Nets teams were dreadful defensively and it's not that he's changed his game massively in 2 years to where we would say he's now anchoring a great defense.

You can make the exact same argument against Giannis.

Can you? You don't think Giannis' game is growing in ways BroLo's at this point isn't? I think it's different though maybe I'm being unfair to Lopez due to his age. I'm open to debate here.

No doubt Giannis benefited from a much more competent head coach(as did Lopez), but we've seen Lopez play for much longer and it's more established the impact he's able to have--at least imo.

I wouldn't have Giannis as my DPOY either btw---that's Rudy Gobert for me. But if you were asking me to rate the most important reasons behind the great defense of the Bucks this year it would be:

Giannis
Bud
Lopez

I don’t know how you can say this about Lopez given his offensive game has gone from a low-post bruiser who never shot outside 15 feet to a guy who bombs threes at the same rate as Klay Thompson. I’d say if you’re skeptical about him te-making his game it’s definitely an age thing because he’s the complete opposite of what he used to be. He went from one of the worst defensive bigs in the league to one of the best and transitioned his whole offensive game to be behind the arc.

As far as specific things, well back in his Brooklyn years he was crashing the offensive glass like crazy which always put him out of position defensively and he was typically one of the last down the floor. Now he’s the first down the floor and he has one of the lowest ORB rates ever recorded at his height. He now blocks guys on the way up rather than trying to jump and meet them at the apex and his footwork is so improved he looks like a different guy. As E-Balla said he went from one of the worst defensive rebounding bigs to arguably the best although this transition started a few years ago.

Like I said, the BroLo phenomenon is jsut as strange to me but it’s a real thing.

[Texas Chuck]

I don’t know how you can say this about Lopez given his offensive game has gone from a low-post bruiser who never shot outside 15 feet to a guy who bombs threes at the same rate as Klay Thompson. I’d say if you’re skeptical about him te-making his game it’s definitely an age thing because he’s the complete opposite of what he used to be. He went from one of the worst defensive bigs in the league to one of the best and transitioned his whole offensive game to be behind the arc.

As far as specific things, well back in his Brooklyn years he was crashing the offensive glass like crazy which always put him out of position defensively and he was typically one of the last down the floor. Now he’s the first down the floor and he has one of the lowest ORB rates ever recorded at his height. He now blocks guys on the way up rather than trying to jump and meet them at the apex and his footwork is so improved he looks like a different guy. As E-Balla said he went from one of the worst defensive rebounding bigs to arguably the best although this transition started a few years ago.

Like I said, the BroLo phenomenon is jsut as strange to me but it’s a real thing.

He's been shooting 3's at volume for 3 years now. He went from 8 attempts per 100 2 years ago, to 9 last year, and 10 this year. Not really what I would call a massive change. The difference is on previous teams they needed him to carry the offense so they used his very skilled post-game and his mid-range shooting as well. Bucks have the luxury of using him in a reduced role. Again coaching and scheme more than player.

As for his defense he's always graded out well as a rim protector. He was a better defensive rebounder earlier in his career. His best rate by far was as a rookie. I won't pretend to have paid close attention to his boxing out year by year--props to you and eballa for that level of commitment, but I'm not buying that he's suddenly this great team defensive rebounder after years of allegedly being terrible.

Crashing the offensive glass is a scheme issue and something to hold a coach responsible for not a player.