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The Troy Brown Thread

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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#421 » by Illmatic12 » Wed Apr 3, 2019 3:44 pm

Interview with Troy Brown, great kid .

I like that he's seeing Beal as a model for his own all-around game. Sounds like Brad has been huge for the development of the young guys

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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#422 » by nate33 » Wed Apr 3, 2019 5:49 pm

Dark Faze wrote:Good thing about his play is that it absolutely knocks Ariza out of DC--the idea of extending him was always silly.

Yup. At this point, I'd only bring him back for the vet minimum. I'd still like him as a veteran mentor and guy you can typically count on in a tight game; but I'm not going to invest much in him when he clearly isn't part of our future. I'm pretty sure he'll get a better offer from a contending team elsewhere.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#423 » by dckingsfan » Wed Apr 3, 2019 6:09 pm

nate33 wrote:
Dark Faze wrote:Good thing about his play is that it absolutely knocks Ariza out of DC--the idea of extending him was always silly.

Yup. At this point, I'd only bring him back for the vet minimum. I'd still like him as a veteran mentor and guy you can typically count on in a tight game; but I'm not going to invest much in him when he clearly isn't part of our future. I'm pretty sure he'll get a better offer from a contending team elsewhere.

I think Ariza plays a different position - well, I hope that is clear. He shouldn't be playing SF - he should be a combo guard.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#424 » by DCZards » Wed Apr 3, 2019 6:16 pm

payitforward wrote:
So you agree that we could have gotten Huerter & Robinson. Or Spellman & Robinson -- is that it?

As to Centers -- you will recall that Williams fouled his nest a few days before the draft & fell @ a dozen spots. I certainly wasn't calling for him at #15 by that point. In fact, I was calling for us to trade down -- repeatedly.

That said, of course we'll never know what would have happened -- which is why I used the word "might." Still, fine. I'm willing to compromise: Ernie hit a bloop single -- & that's not a description of Brown but of Ernie's work in the 2018 draft. :) Can't say he struck out, obviously. But... he wasn't as solid as the word "double" would imply.


EG deserves more credit for the Brown pick than calling it a "bloop single" (Of course, I know you're factoring in the second round pick as well.) I think the Brown pick at #15 will turn out to be one of EG's best draft night moves. May not be a home run, but at the minimum a solid double...maybe even eventually a triple in the gap. Time will tell.

It would have been great to have gotten two first round picks for the 15th pick used on Brown. But how realistic is that? How often, if ever, has a team been able to trade a #15 pick for two picks later in the first round? You might get two picks at the end of the first round for the 15th pick but I doubt that you can get two top 25 picks for it.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#425 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 3, 2019 9:43 pm

prime1time wrote:Evan Turner is an interesting comparison. I can definitely see it, but because Evan is a career 29.4% 3-point shooter, it's hard to play out the fits in my head. Next year will give us a much better feel for where this his skill level is because this year the sample size is so small. I do think we hit a home-run with the pick though. Evan Turner with a 3-point shot, is an elite role player. Maybe if we are lucky Brown Jr. will also grown an inch or two lol. Looking forward to seeing him grow.


Dat says it all the time, but it REALLY really is all about the 3pt shot with Troy Brown jr, in terms of his efficiency and overall effectiveness as a player. He can be special if he can shoot it. He can be an inefficient chucker and mediocre player if not.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#426 » by NatP4 » Wed Apr 3, 2019 9:44 pm

Dark Faze wrote:Good thing about his play is that it absolutely knocks Ariza out of DC--the idea of extending him was always silly.


Trading for him was completely asinine
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#427 » by payitforward » Tue Apr 16, 2019 1:09 pm

Strikes me it's time to look back on Troy Brown's rookie season & assess how he's done & his prospects going forward. nate & doc have each just written about him in the draft thread; their remarks give us a good way to get started on his overall rookie assessment:

nate33 wrote:...Troy Brown, on the other hand, is a very versatile player with a great handle, passing instincts, and a nose for the ball to get rebounds and steals. He has a great feel for the game and enough wiggle to do stuff off the bounce. His jumper is lousy but not broken, and showed signs of improvement throughout the season. Troy has the capability of becoming a primary ball handler and decision maker - a stronger and more aggressive Satoransky. There's a small chance that he can even be a star, but it would require a lot of hard work to improve his shooting. Defensively, he's not as tall, strong or long as a Hunter so he really can't switch onto 4's and 5's.


doclinkin wrote:A better Troy Brown is a pretty good player, just not an allstar. He makes your team better all around and is a good fit with any team. Not a flashy pick, but a solid player. My read is: as a lotto pick fans will be underwhelmed at his early production but he will earn a long career and be a coach's favorite whatever team he ends up on. He needs to build a 3 pt shot to be a useful player overall.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#428 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 2:06 pm

A look back at the draft:

Image

I highlighted the guys picked after us that either played a lot more minutes than Brown or had a substantially higher WS/48 on more than garbage time minutes.

It looks like Troy Brown was a pretty good pick. Huerter, Shamet and Holiday look a bit better, but Brown is outperforming most of the other players in the second half of the first round. It looks even better when you factor that Brown is the second youngest guy to play at least 200 minutes (the youngest being Knox).

It's also worth noting that many of us (myself included) were disappointed that EG didn't grab Zhaire Smith. As it turned out, Smith couldn't even get on the floor in his rookie year.

So far, the biggest prize in this draft outside of the top of the lottery is Mitchell Robinson, who was picked 36th.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#429 » by MDStar » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:05 pm

Is Troy Brown Jr. considered the long term answer at the SF position?

I think with an improved 3P% as others have stated, that he certainly has the potential and should get every opportunity to be a mainstay next to Beal on the wing for the foreseeable future. In comparing his 1 year of college to his 1 year with the Wizards, his 3P% went up to 32% from 29%. Not a major jump but considering the deeper line and the increased competition, I feel this slight uptick is a good sign of him getting close to the 37-38% area.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#430 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:14 pm

MDStar wrote:Is Troy Brown Jr. considered the long term answer at the SF position?

I think with an improved 3P% as others have stated, that he certainly has the potential and should get every opportunity to be a mainstay next to Beal on the wing for the foreseeable future. In comparing his 1 year of college to his 1 year with the Wizards, his 3P% went up to 32% from 29%. Not a major jump but considering the deeper line and the increased competition, I feel this slight uptick is a good sign of him getting close to the 37-38% area.

I think of Brown as a "combo-wing". He can play PG, SG or SF. It doesn't really matter. His role will depend upon who is alongside him. Just get him on the court.

Right now, his biggest limitation is that he needs shooting around him because he's not that good of a shooter himself. But as his shot improves, he'll become a totally positionless guard/wing.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#431 » by MDStar » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:38 pm

nate33 wrote:
MDStar wrote:Is Troy Brown Jr. considered the long term answer at the SF position?

I think with an improved 3P% as others have stated, that he certainly has the potential and should get every opportunity to be a mainstay next to Beal on the wing for the foreseeable future. In comparing his 1 year of college to his 1 year with the Wizards, his 3P% went up to 32% from 29%. Not a major jump but considering the deeper line and the increased competition, I feel this slight uptick is a good sign of him getting close to the 37-38% area.

I think of Brown as a "combo-wing". He can play PG, SG or SF. It doesn't really matter. His role will depend upon who is alongside him. Just get him on the court.

Right now, his biggest limitation is that he needs shooting around him because he's not that good of a shooter himself. But as his shot improves, he'll become a totally positionless guard/wing.


Does that mean that you view him more as a 6th man than a starter?
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#432 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 16, 2019 4:52 pm

MDStar wrote:
nate33 wrote:
MDStar wrote:Is Troy Brown Jr. considered the long term answer at the SF position?

I think with an improved 3P% as others have stated, that he certainly has the potential and should get every opportunity to be a mainstay next to Beal on the wing for the foreseeable future. In comparing his 1 year of college to his 1 year with the Wizards, his 3P% went up to 32% from 29%. Not a major jump but considering the deeper line and the increased competition, I feel this slight uptick is a good sign of him getting close to the 37-38% area.

I think of Brown as a "combo-wing". He can play PG, SG or SF. It doesn't really matter. His role will depend upon who is alongside him. Just get him on the court.

Right now, his biggest limitation is that he needs shooting around him because he's not that good of a shooter himself. But as his shot improves, he'll become a totally positionless guard/wing.


Does that mean that you view him more as a 6th man than a starter?

No. If he becomes a competent three point shooter, he's definitely starting material. I'm just saying it doesn't really matter if you designate him a PG, SG or SF. He can play any of those positions (assuming he learns to shoot).
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#433 » by DCZards » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:07 pm

nate33 wrote:I highlighted the guys picked after us that either played a lot more minutes than Brown or had a substantially higher WS/48 on more than garbage time minutes.

It looks like Troy Brown was a pretty good pick. Huerter, Shamet and Holiday look a bit better, but Brown is outperforming most of the other players in the second half of the first round. It looks even better when you factor that Brown is the second youngest guy to play at least 200 minutes (the youngest being Knox).

It's also worth noting that many of us (myself included) were disappointed that EG didn't grab Zhaire Smith. As it turned out, Smith couldn't even get on the floor in his rookie year.

So far, the biggest prize in this draft outside of the top of the lottery is Mitchell Robinson, who was picked 36th.


I knew little or nothing about Brown before we drafted him, but it does look like the Zards took the right guy with its pick. Troy's shortcomings, especially his shooting and lack of strength, are obvious. But his high bball IQ, skilled passing and ballhandling, and instincts as a rebounder and defender are just as obvious.

Brown's shooting improved during the course of the season and I expect him to get stronger as his body matures and he hits the weight room.

In fairness to Zhaire Smith, he was injured early in the season (broken foot) and then had a food allergy that led to him losing 20 pounds and missing time. However, he started getting some run with the Sixers at the end of the season.

I was touting Robinson before last year's draft. He's raw as hell but his length and athleticism are difference makers.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#434 » by dckingsfan » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:07 pm

I just don't see him as a SF in the league in this day and age... I see him as a guard/combo guard that can guard 3 positions.

Those who say he needs to develop his 3 point shot are dead-on in this case. And once he develops the shot he needs to put it up at a higher volume (unlike Sato).
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#435 » by payitforward » Tue Apr 16, 2019 5:25 pm

Troy Brown's numbers as a rookie were very good overall. In 730 minutes, he was already -- to use Doc's phrase -- "a useful player overall." & that's despite the lack of a 3 point shot (not to mention a 2 point shot! or being good from the line!). In fact -- despite his low % scoring -- he performed at an above average level for an NBA wing overall.

The biggest reason to make that judgment is because of his rebounding. Compared to an average NBA wing, Troy pulled down 31% more defensive boards -- & almost 92% more offensive boards!

In fact, you could create a kind of omnibus measure of offensive efficiency, which includes his own scoring of course but also includes his overall creation of offensive opportunities, by using the formula for TS%: simply subtract offensive boards & steals from his FG attempts & add turnovers to his FG attempts. Using that composite measure, Troy's overall efficiency is within a hair of average (though on a bit lower usage than average).

On that basis, his superior defensive rebounding & his above average number of assists pull him up above average productivity for a wing.

What's all this mean? Simple: he's 3 months shy of turning 20, & he's already good; if he learns to shoot he's going to be one heck of a player.

25 rookies played more minutes than Troy Brown Jr.. Of those, only two players taken later in the draft than Troy put up more productive numbers at their position than he did -- MItchell Robinson & Chandler Hutchison (in Robinson's case they were better by a lot!! He put up the best numbers of any rookie).

Who else among those 25 were significantly better than Troy? Luka Doncic, DeAndre Ayton, Mikal Bridges, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Marvin Bagley & Miles Bridges -- i.e. 3 of the first 5 & the number 10, 11 & 12 picks.

You could make an argument for Wendell Carter -- but his numbers weren't good for a 4-5; not near average. Same for Spellman.

All in all, a good rookie season from a guy who has a shot to turn out a very good player.

(But was still a poor choice @ #15)
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#436 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 17, 2019 1:46 am

nate33 wrote:A look back at the draft:

Image

I highlighted the guys picked after us that either played a lot more minutes than Brown or had a substantially higher WS/48 on more than garbage time minutes.

It looks like Troy Brown was a pretty good pick. Huerter, Shamet and Holiday look a bit better, but Brown is outperforming most of the other players in the second half of the first round. It looks even better when you factor that Brown is the second youngest guy to play at least 200 minutes (the youngest being Knox).

It's also worth noting that many of us (myself included) were disappointed that EG didn't grab Zhaire Smith. As it turned out, Smith couldn't even get on the floor in his rookie year.

So far, the biggest prize in this draft outside of the top of the lottery is Mitchell Robinson, who was picked 36th.

As far as I am able to tell, Win Shares (&, therefore, WS/48) is a useless roll-up. It can't actually be correlated with actual wins, because it starts with them!

Of course, no matter how bad a metric is, there is no question it will capture the very best performers. You could create a metric out of whole cloth in 30 seconds that would accomplish that goal! It's just no good for the vast majority of players.

For example, it takes little effort to understand that Troy Brown was better than both Huerter & Shamet -- an easy comparison as they are all 3 wings.

It's simplest to see in Huerter's case -- he & Brown scored nearly the same # of points per 40 minutes (1/2 point difference). Huerter posted a higher eFG% -- but once you see that he turned it over more often, & Brown got back some missed field goal attempts by way of offensive boards, their offensive efficiencies are identical.

Then, when you look at the rest of what the 2 guys did, it isn't really close: Brown had more assists & way more defensive boards. He was decisively better (not hugely -- but not ambiguously either).

Shamet scored the ball more efficiently than either of the other guys. But... he did nothing else at anywhere near Brown's level. He didn't rebound on either end of the court, didn't get assists, etc.

Now, what is certainly fair to point out is that a) both guys were taken after Troy; Shamet was taken 11 picks later! Perhaps we could have gotten Shamet & another player if we'd traded down?

Moreover, both those guys played a lot more minutes than Troy played -- that gives you somewhat more confidence that their numbers mean something.

As to Mitchell Robinson, not only was "the biggest prize in this draft outside of the top of the lottery" but in fact he posted the best numbers of any rookie, period. Compare his numbers to Ayton's when you have a chance. Zards wanted him, & he turns out to have been right: he'd have been the best pick by far!
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#437 » by I_Like_Dirt » Wed Apr 17, 2019 3:15 pm

I'm still not sure about Robinson. He's got physical tools but is kinda a hack at this point. He gambles for blocks pretty badly right now. If he manages to learn the game, he would be a very good player. He has a really long ways to go in terms of learning the game, though. The Knicks were only a little better defensively with him on the floor, and the Knicks were awful defensively and his biggest strength is compensating for mistakes with length. He scored efficiently but he didn't actually take many shots. It's hard to get him the ball in places he can actually score from because he's so limited and he's a rather poor passer. I think his upside is Hassan Whiteside or something around that level. Compare him to Troy Brown and Brown appears to be able to process the overall game way better despite his lesser physical tools.

I like Robinson's chances of having a quality NBA career but I wouldn't call him the prize of the draft unless he totally turns things around. The prize of fantasy basketball drafts, sure, and he should have gone in the 1st round, but he still has some serious question marks about his game. I think there are a lot of players in this draft who are tough to read. I'm curious to see what Josh Okogie does in Minnesota over time, for example. Hamidou Diallo also looks intriguing in OKC. There are quite a few players that all might really develop and figuring out which ones will and which ones won't seems like a tall order at this point.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#438 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:02 pm

I_Like_Dirt wrote:I'm still not sure about Robinson. He's got physical tools but is kinda a hack at this point. He gambles for blocks pretty badly right now. If he manages to learn the game, he would be a very good player. He has a really long ways to go in terms of learning the game, though. The Knicks were only a little better defensively with him on the floor, and the Knicks were awful defensively and his biggest strength is compensating for mistakes with length. He scored efficiently but he didn't actually take many shots. It's hard to get him the ball in places he can actually score from because he's so limited and he's a rather poor passer. I think his upside is Hassan Whiteside or something around that level. Compare him to Troy Brown and Brown appears to be able to process the overall game way better despite his lesser physical tools.

I like Robinson's chances of having a quality NBA career but I wouldn't call him the prize of the draft unless he totally turns things around. The prize of fantasy basketball drafts, sure, and he should have gone in the 1st round, but he still has some serious question marks about his game. I think there are a lot of players in this draft who are tough to read. I'm curious to see what Josh Okogie does in Minnesota over time, for example. Hamidou Diallo also looks intriguing in OKC. There are quite a few players that all might really develop and figuring out which ones will and which ones won't seems like a tall order at this point.

It's too early to figure out "which ones will and which ones won't" with any accuracy, but Mitchell Robinson already has. He got over 5 offensive rebounds per 40 minutes last year. He blocked almost 5 shots per 40 minutes last year. He posted a TS% of 69+%

Of course, he doesn't score a lot of points, right? So, his upside is probably somewhere around a mediocre player like maybe Bill Russell, right?

Definitely needs to "totally turn things around." Especially having come into the league never even having played college ball.

Robinson being good, however good, doesn't make Brown any worse. Robinson being less good doesn't make Brown better.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#439 » by dckingsfan » Wed Apr 17, 2019 7:07 pm

payitforward wrote:
nate33 wrote:A look back at the draft:

Image

I highlighted the guys picked after us that either played a lot more minutes than Brown or had a substantially higher WS/48 on more than garbage time minutes.

It looks like Troy Brown was a pretty good pick. Huerter, Shamet and Holiday look a bit better, but Brown is outperforming most of the other players in the second half of the first round. It looks even better when you factor that Brown is the second youngest guy to play at least 200 minutes (the youngest being Knox).

It's also worth noting that many of us (myself included) were disappointed that EG didn't grab Zhaire Smith. As it turned out, Smith couldn't even get on the floor in his rookie year.

So far, the biggest prize in this draft outside of the top of the lottery is Mitchell Robinson, who was picked 36th.

As far as I am able to tell, Win Shares (&, therefore, WS/48) is a useless roll-up. It can't actually be correlated with actual wins, because it starts with them!

Of course, no matter how bad a metric is, there is no question it will capture the very best performers. You could create a metric out of whole cloth in 30 seconds that would accomplish that goal! It's just no good for the vast majority of players.

For example, it takes little effort to understand that Troy Brown was better than both Huerter & Shamet -- an easy comparison as they are all 3 wings.

It's simplest to see in Huerter's case -- he & Brown scored nearly the same # of points per 40 minutes (1/2 point difference). Huerter posted a higher eFG% -- but once you see that he turned it over more often, & Brown got back some missed field goal attempts by way of offensive boards, their offensive efficiencies are identical.

Then, when you look at the rest of what the 2 guys did, it isn't really close: Brown had more assists & way more defensive boards. He was decisively better (not hugely -- but not ambiguously either).

Shamet scored the ball more efficiently than either of the other guys. But... he did nothing else at anywhere near Brown's level. He didn't rebound on either end of the court, didn't get assists, etc.

Now, what is certainly fair to point out is that a) both guys were taken after Troy; Shamet was taken 11 picks later! Perhaps we could have gotten Shamet & another player if we'd traded down?

Moreover, both those guys played a lot more minutes than Troy played -- that gives you somewhat more confidence that their numbers mean something.

As to Mitchell Robinson, not only was "the biggest prize in this draft outside of the top of the lottery" but in fact he posted the best numbers of any rookie, period. Compare his numbers to Ayton's when you have a chance. Zards wanted him, & he turns out to have been right: he'd have been the best pick by far!

The trade would have had to be with Atlanta the 27th and 34th pick for ours. Then we take Shamet and Robinson. Move Bryant to PF. All things 20/20.
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Re: The Troy Brown Thread 

Post#440 » by payitforward » Wed Apr 17, 2019 9:17 pm

Shamet went #26.

Oh, & the Hawks didn't have the #27 pick.

Otherwise you've nailed it! :)

Doesn't matter really... I was thinking our #15 to the Sixers for their #s 26 & 38. Or to the Hawks for their #s30 & 34 -- which could have brought Spellman/Robinson.
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