ECQF | P2 (2) Toronto Raptors vs (7) Orlando Magic

[orlando_joe]

It doesn't matter that Toronto is winning. It's actually better to bring up the massive FT discrepancy now so it's not seen as an excuse for losing. However, Orlando had 6 more FTA in game 1, 7 more FTA in game 2 and 13 more FTA in game 3, and we're seeing a gross trend in this series.

Orlando averaged 19.2 FTA (30th) and drew 18.7 PF/game (tied for 30th) in the season; so far they've averaged 22.3 FTA and drew 21.7 PF/game. Orlando's opponents averaged 20.9 FTA (5th) and drew 18.6 PF (2nd) against them in the season.

Toronto averaged 22.0 FTA (21st) and drew 20.5 PF/game (19th) in the season; so far they've averaged 13.7 FTA and drew 18.0 PF/game. Toronto's opponents averaged 22.3 FTA (12th) and drew 21.0 PF/game (16th).

So all of Orlando's numbers are better (FTA = +3.1, PF = -0.6, OPP FTA = -7.2, OPP PF = +3.0) while all of Toronto's numbers are worse (FTA = -7.3, PF = +0.7, OPP FTA = +0.0, OPP PF = -2.5).

It may not seem like a noteworthy difference when just looking at PFs, but when you take into account the above stats, it's very clear Toronto has been getting the short end of the stick. Orlando was/is a disciplined defensive team, but they still allowed their opponents to average ~21 FTA for the season. Toronto's opponents only averaged 1.4 more FTA than Orlando's opponents and Toronto themselves averaged 2.8 more FTA than Orlando, but somehow we still find ourselves looking at a 67-41 FTA advantage in favour of Orlando. All things considered, the difference should not be anywhere close to that massive, especially when you take into account things like HCA and "superstar whistles," which everyone claims to be real things.

bla,bla,bla...I bet in next rd raptors get ton of calls...because they will be getting fouled!! ...lol
also raptors not getting to line in last 2 min...because magic not putting them on line to extend the game..

Good counterpoint. You sure changed my views with that post.

Sent from my LG-H831 using RealGM mobile app

yea it was very clear magic have got short end of the stick...just want to point it out

[VFX]

Copied and pasted from the Raptors board...

Orlando (regular season followed by playoffs)
Gordon: 3.2 FTA, 2.2 PF | 3.0 FTA, 3.0 PF (-0.2 FTA, +0.8 PF)
Vucevic: 2.8 FTA, 2.0 PF | 4.0 FTA, 1.7 PF (+1.2 FTA, -0.2 PF)
Augustin: 2.6 FTA, 1.4 PF | 3.7 FTA, 1.7 PF (+1.1 FTA, +0.3 PF)
Fournier: 2.1 FTA, 2.8 PF | 1.3 FTA, 2.7 PF (-0.8 FTA, -0.1 PF)
MCW: 1.9 FTA, 1.7 PF | 0.3 FTA, 2.7 PF (-1.6 FTA, +1.0 PF)
Isaac: 1.8 FTA, 1.9 PF | 2.7 FTA, 1.7 PF (+0.9 FTA, -0.2 PF)
Ross: 1.8 FTA, 1.5 PF | 4.3 FTA, 1.7 PF (+2.5 FTA, +0.2 PF)
Birch: 1.7 FTA, 1.4 PF | 1.7 FTA, 1.7 PF (+0.0 FTA, +0.3 PF)
Iwundu: 1.5 FTA, 1.8 PF | 1.3 FTA, 1.3 PF (-0.2 FTA, -0.5 PF)


Toronto (regular season followed by playoffs)
Leonard: 7.1 FTA, 1.5 PF | 4.3 FTA, 3.0 PF (-2.8 FTA, +1.5 PF)
Siakam: 3.8 FTA, 3.0 PF | 1.3 FTA, 2.7 PF (-2.5 FTA, -0.3 PF)
Gasol: 3.2 FTA, 2.7 PF | 0.7 FTA, 2.3 PF (-2.5 FTA, -0.4 PF)
Lowry: 3.0 FTA, 2.6 PF | 3.0 FTA, 3.7 PF (+0.0 FTA, +1.1 PF)
Ibaka: 2.4 FTA, 2.9 PF | 1.3 FTA, 2.0 PF (-1.1 FTA, -0.9 PF)
FVV: 1.8 FTA, 1.7 PF | 0.7 FTA, 1.7 PF (-1.1 FTA, +0.0 PF)
Powell: 1.3 FTA, 1.6 PF | 0.7 FTA, 1.3 PF (-0.6 FTA, -0.3 PF)
Green: 0.6 FTA, 2.1 PF | 0.7 FTA, 3.0 PF (+0.1 FTA, +0.9 PF)

Almost every rotation player for Toronto is seeing a substantial drop in FTA (and Kawhi, Siakam and Gasol are all at least 2.5 FTA/game lower) while Orlando's main rotation players are generally getting to the line at the same rate with a noticeable increase for Ross (2.5 more FTA), Vucevic (1.2 more FTA) and Augustin (1.1 more FTA). Similarly, some of Toronto's highest IQ players and best defenders are getting called for more PFs (Kawhi 1.5 more PF, Lowry 1.1 more PF, Green 0.9 more PF) while the only noteworthy increases for Orlando are Gordon (0.8 more PF) - who has been guarding Kawhi Leonard - and MCW (1.0 more PF) - who has seen a ~33% increase in his minutes.

I just don't understand how a team like Orlando - a very good but young and inexperienced defensive team - is getting the benefit of the doubt on the defensive end while a team like Toronto - a very good and experienced defensive team - is getting called for touch fouls.

Another way of looking at this is that Orlando is one of the worst teams in the NBA at getting to the line during the regular season. Most Magic fans know that. Toronto has been extremely active defensively in limiting Vuc’s touches inside, which would attribute to more calls.

So yeah, Orlando is going to be getting to the line more often than they usually would, either because of a playoff atmosphere or Toronto’s defense. Either way, it’s working out well for Toronto so I don’t really see the issue here.

So, as a team Magic cumulatively makes 1.6 more PFs in playoffs than in regular season. Where's the issue? Cliff generally tries to limit turnovers and fouls, with maximum efforts on defensive rebounding. It is the staple of his defensive strategy.

Raps are winning, why such need to play a victim here?

Because Raps fans are insecure, even when they are winning in a series, due to choking every season and never living up to expectations set by fans and media?

[HangTime]

The nba needs to have an a stat for breaking down fouls.

Offensive fouls
Shoot fouls
Non-shooting fouls
Shooting fouls (in the bonus)
Non-shooting fouls (in the bonus)

Also, how is Lowry not getting continuation when fouled on his jump shot?

Other guys get fouled, when they're further away from a shooting motion, and they get the continuation.

[PD28]

Some upset Magics fans up in here lol

[VanWest82]

It doesn't matter that Toronto is winning. It's actually better to bring up the massive FT discrepancy now so it's not seen as an excuse for losing. However, Orlando had 6 more FTA in game 1, 7 more FTA in game 2 and 13 more FTA in game 3, and we're seeing a gross trend in this series.

Orlando averaged 19.2 FTA (30th) and drew 18.7 PF/game (tied for 30th) in the season; so far they've averaged 22.3 FTA and drew 21.7 PF/game. Orlando's opponents averaged 20.9 FTA (5th) and drew 18.6 PF (2nd) against them in the season.

Toronto averaged 22.0 FTA (21st) and drew 20.5 PF/game (19th) in the season; so far they've averaged 13.7 FTA and drew 18.0 PF/game. Toronto's opponents averaged 22.3 FTA (12th) and drew 21.0 PF/game (16th).

So all of Orlando's numbers are better (FTA = +3.1, PF = -0.6, OPP FTA = -7.2, OPP PF = +3.0) while all of Toronto's numbers are worse (FTA = -7.3, PF = +0.7, OPP FTA = +0.0, OPP PF = -2.5).

It may not seem like a noteworthy difference when just looking at PFs, but when you take into account the above stats, it's very clear Toronto has been getting the short end of the stick. Orlando was/is a disciplined defensive team, but they still allowed their opponents to average ~21 FTA for the season. Toronto's opponents only averaged 1.4 more FTA than Orlando's opponents and Toronto themselves averaged 2.8 more FTA than Orlando, but somehow we still find ourselves looking at a 67-41 FTA advantage in favour of Orlando. All things considered, the difference should not be anywhere close to that massive, especially when you take into account things like HCA and "superstar whistles," which everyone claims to be real things.

bla,bla,bla...I bet in next rd raptors get ton of calls...because they will be getting fouled!! ...lol
also raptors not getting to line in last 2 min...because magic not putting them on line to extend the game..

Good counterpoint. You sure changed my views with that post.

Sent from my LG-H831 using RealGM mobile app

These stats don't mean much. You could have a 67-41 FT disparity and the games could be called 100% correct. It doesn't matter that FT trends continue, only that the ref made the correct call. Having said that, they did not make the correct call on Kawhi's 3rd and Gasol's 4th foul in games 2&3, and in an alternate reality that might have F'd them, but it didn't.

It's funny to me how all these officiating complaints never contain video evidence. The reason is because there isn't much. Kawhi got hacked by Vuc mid 1st in game three. He had that bump in transition in the 1st and 4th quarters too. Game two was a train wreck because we got up big early and refs stepped in so it didn't get out of control. That happens in most games where one team is getting trounced. Game one was fine. This isn't a conspiracy.

[Ramed Nazored]

Yep. The NBA hates Toronto. They should just give up now, since they're just going to get screwed over next round. Or the round after that. Why even try to advance?

Hell, everyone hates Canada. What's there point of even living up there? Just give up. Move to the US. It's the only way anyone will care about or love you.

Why not actually engage with the boatloads of data highlighting the silly disparity in FT attempts and mount a counter argument?

Are you capable?

Capable? Yes, definitely.
Do I have the time right now? Not really.

Do I think there's credible enough data from three current games to reject the a priori assumption that the officiating is unbiased? Probably not.

A priori? No.

The outcry is a result of the data, which would indicate that given the regular season trends, attempts at the bucket/drives attempts vs FT attempts, and All-Stars Vs. Marginal Players who take less shots at the rim vs. foul shots attempted indicate partiality of some kind. Tribalism and bias just prevent *MOST Magic fans from acknowledging it.

I made no assumptions until I saw the numbers, as I realize that I can't trust the "eye test" given my obvious confirmation bias. MY response comes from the numbers, which are heavily skewed in one direction.

[orlando_joe]

I think the more your players and coach cry..the more the refs should swallow whistle ..almost never happens that's why flopping and crying happens..it real clear if you watch games raptors cry on every play..maybe refs had enough..thats how it should be..not cave

[15Years]

Some upset Magics fans up in here lol

Salt runs deep within the magic kingdom

[Kabookalu]

Why can't we all just get along.

[Potential]

I think the more your players and coach cry..the more the refs should swallow whistle ..almost never happens that's why flopping and crying happens..it real clear if you watch games raptors cry on every play..maybe refs had enough..thats how it should be..not cave

Orlando is getting all the calls. Adam Silver called them and told them they're going to be getting all the whistles this series. So far it's 67-41 for Orlando.

[Kabookalu]

There's a case to be made on both sides. Gasol has gotten away with a lot of hacking himself on Vucevic in the post, and Kawhi is getting mugged.

[ORL_on_FIRE]

Need a win tonight.

[spikeslovechild]

Need a win tonight.

Rooting for you guys.

[RaptorPride]

Need a win tonight.

Rooting for you guys.

Thanks

[yellowknifer]

Predicting another 5v8 victory for Toronto.

[simple_jack]

Key to tonight’s game for Orlando...


Stop Kawhi again. Hope he still has the flu

[LBJKB24MJ23]

Gasol foul situation is going to be a factor

Flu like symptoms for Kawhi?

Danny green needs to get going

Someone from the bench needs to step for the Raptors

[Young Stapler]

Gonna be the FVV Show tonight!

[Sisqo]

Another way of looking at this is that Orlando is one of the worst teams in the NBA at getting to the line during the regular season. Most Magic fans know that. Toronto has been extremely active defensively in limiting Vuc’s touches inside, which would attribute to more calls.

So yeah, Orlando is going to be getting to the line more often than they usually would, either because of a playoff atmosphere or Toronto’s defense. Either way, it’s working out well for Toronto so I don’t really see the issue here.

So, as a team Magic cumulatively makes 1.6 more PFs in playoffs than in regular season. Where's the issue? Cliff generally tries to limit turnovers and fouls, with maximum efforts on defensive rebounding. It is the staple of his defensive strategy.

Raps are winning, why such need to play a victim here?

Because Raps fans are insecure, even when they are winning in a series, due to choking every season and never living up to expectations set by fans and media?

I'm confused. Half of you say we are insecure the other half say we are cocky. Which is it?

[VFX]

So, as a team Magic cumulatively makes 1.6 more PFs in playoffs than in regular season. Where's the issue? Cliff generally tries to limit turnovers and fouls, with maximum efforts on defensive rebounding. It is the staple of his defensive strategy.

Raps are winning, why such need to play a victim here?

Because Raps fans are insecure, even when they are winning in a series, due to choking every season and never living up to expectations set by fans and media?

I'm confused. Half of you say we are insecure the other half say we are cocky. Which is it?

Don’t understand how people saying “cocky”. You have one of the best players in the game right now playing in a weak east. Orlando was happy to even make the playoffs. Still somehow stole a game from Toronto with little to no offense and you guys doing a great job of limiting Vuc.