Revisting (Schroder Traded, Young drafted) 2018 draft strategy

[thecampster]

First a player comparison 2018 Dennis Schroder vs 2019 Trae Young

Schroder

17.1 FGA, 43.6 FG%, 3.1 3 FGa/g, 19.4 ppg, 6.2 apg, 3.1 rpg

Young

15.5 FGA, 41.8 FG%, 6.0 3 FGa/g, 19.1 ppg, 8.1 apg, 3.7 rpg

I was a bit surprised when I looked at the numbers and they showed that Young was a better rebounder (marginally) and a more efficient scorer. Although his FG% was lower, it was because he attempted 2x 3's per game which gave him a better eFG%. He managed virtually the same scoring average on 1.6 less shots while getting nearly 2 more assists per game.

By dealing Schroder to OKC and drafting Young exchange the Hawks saved 12 million a year in salary. Although the move cost the Hawks 1 year of Carmelo at $29 million with no return...the 4 year salary savings of 48 million more than makes up the difference. Additionally, the move netted the Hawks a 2022 lottery protected 1st round pick (if it were this year it would be 21st overall).

Additionally, by trading down in the draft for Young, the Hawks picked up a second 1st round pick (likely to convey this year at 9).

When looking at the entire draft strategy in 2018, the Hawks were in a bind with Schroder, a volatile player with pending legal trouble. However, the Hawks gambled by trading away Schroder (an established good player) but look to have ended up with a superior player, cap space and 2 future 1st rounders in the process. (yes I know the trade down was only 1 pick...but the strategy actually brought a second with trading Schroder). It is going to be hard not to look back on 2018 as one of the best drafts in Hawks history. They entered the draft in total confusion (loss of Bud, PG legal trouble, bad reputation) and came away with a great young core, cap flexibility and 3 future bonus 1st round draft picks.

[peoriabird]

Schoeder was traded after the draft

[Geaux_Hawks]

Schoeder was traded after the draft

I think he is looking at the process as a whole.

[King Ken]

Both players had their flaws. I wanted to keep Dennis and draft Bagley. Once it was clear he was going #2, I wanted Doncic, Bamba or Young. A case could be made for all three. Bamba had the unicorn potential to be the defender Gobert is while being the offensive player Gobert never was. Doncic had the best readiness and he was the best player by far and I was sold on him being a superstar in the NBA. Young, I was less sold on but I felt out of everyone BUT Bagley, he had the most potential just due to his abilities to transcendent the game on offense but his defense was nonexistent.

So when it came down to it, my list took like this:

1. Doncic
2. Bamba
3. Young

I liked Doncic the most. Bamba 2nd because I liked his fit with Collins. I also thought he would help Dennis defensively by cleaning up mistakes but I knew year 1 would be a wash for him but I was looking at him long term. I personally thought year 1 would be a wash for Trae too. He played well beyond my expectations before the draft came.

Dennis was a better player than Trae was at that stage and I didn't want to move from Dennis because I still believed he could develop into a top 15-20 PG. Maybe never a top 10 PG but a Jeff Teague level with the right personnel at that time.

I wasn't happy with the trade. I wasn't happy at all. I loved that we got Trae Young but I hate that we lost Doncic who I felt at that time had a much higher floor and a more likely potential. Trae had insane potential but so much had to go right. It's almost like the way I look at Kyler Murray. They need the right system and playing style. I didn't think Bud was a fit and even when Bud quit, I was thinking LP was going to play the style Philly currently plays. I didn't see us going to a D'Antoni Houston style from a defensive minded coach. I was high on Trae but I had questions and we had Dennis.

I liked Kevin once June came around. I didn't see too much of him before that but when I watched his games, I was sold that he could be around the range of 13-30 which is possible. Just like this year, the tier 4 range was absolutely LOADED. My first year expectations for Kevin was G-League for most of the year and flashes at some point. He too completely outplayed my expectations, especially on defense which I actually liked in college for him.

I wasn't sure who we needed to draft at #19 last year as I said on the board at that time. Because I didn't know the direction of the team, I just was like, BPA. I felt we did that plus it was a system fit into how we wanted to play. I predicted we would draft him and Omari before we drafted them just due to the Trae pick.

Looking back at it now: A lot worked out. Trae played beyond expectations as did Kevin. Both were perfect fits for the new system. Dennis got traded and looks like ass and if he did that for another year here, he would be a bad contract so we won on that one and everyone got better under LP other than Baze who did as well till the injury and he lost his athletic ability in the 2nd half of the season.

Overall, it worked out. We now have an identity and a system. Drafting and scouting should be much easier because of that. This is something our old teams only figured out under Bud and the 60 win season and the 90's Hawks did as well but they never drafted all that well. We got an excellent talent evaluator in TS. Things look on the up and up.

I still like Luka and I still feel Bagley will be the best player in this class but Trae has superstar potential and I love the selection as it met my biggest need: We need a transcendent talent and a face of the franchise. Trae is that.If we landed Bagley or Doncic, I would feel the same way and Bamba, I would be more worried as Hawks scouts were right, he just wasn't ready. These are hard to see when you aren't there for the workouts or UT practices. Gametape can only help so much which is why I try to just trust our scouts and coaches.

I was team, anyone but JJJ last year like I am team anyone but Culver this year. Not because I didn't like JJJ because I did and if he was in this year's draft I would trade both picks to move up to get him but last year, we needed a transcendent player. We needed a face of the franchise. We didn't need potentially elite high end role player. We needed "a guy", A Steph, A MJ, A Kobe, A Penny, A Durant. We needed A guy. JJJ is perfect for right now. If we got 2nd overall and Memphis was like JJJ for 2nd overall. I would do it in a heartbeat but not for where we were. Dennis, JJJ and Collins would be limited as hell. On top of that, we would be one of these these teams hoping we can land Morant like Chicago and most of the other bottom 5 teams. I rather have that guy and worry about the rest later which is what we did.

As for Culver, I just don't think he is going to translate. I hope we don't touch him but we will see. Workouts are critical and they test everything. So they have a good take on the players.

[ATL Boy]

Getting rid of Schroder goes beyond the numbers. We didn't want him being the primary veteran voice in a young locker room, especially after he publicly declared that he didn't want to be here. That being said, however, the numbers between a first-year Trae and an in-prime Dennis make that trade look even better.

The real prize will be the cap space we've free up in not having to pay Dennis $15.5 mil over the next two years. It gives us a chance to really have options in both this free agency period and especially the FA period next year when Baze and Plumlee expire as well. The fact that we could even get a first rounder out of is just gravy. Very savvy move by Schlenk.

[graymule]

IF, and that's a great big IF, Hawks do as well in the next draft as they did in the last one, look out! Hawks will be in
the playoffs and the team no one wants to face!!

Three draft picks, all exceeding expectations and "old" Hawks doing so well. And, those free agents! WOW!!

[kerrypack]

King Ken, you said it well. I really wanted Doncic and he might end up the better player, but getting two picks for one could be the better calculus and Trae has done better than expected.

With hurt and trae better than expected will be interesting to see where we go in this draft. Like any year, a lot of crap shoots out there.

Both players had their flaws. I wanted to keep Dennis and draft Bagley. Once it was clear he was going #2, I wanted Doncic, Bamba or Young. A case could be made for all three. Bamba had the unicorn potential to be the defender Gobert is while being the offensive player Gobert never was. Doncic had the best readiness and he was the best player by far and I was sold on him being a superstar in the NBA. Young, I was less sold on but I felt out of everyone BUT Bagley, he had the most potential just due to his abilities to transcendent the game on offense but his defense was nonexistent.

So when it came down to it, my list took like this:

1. Doncic
2. Bamba
3. Young

I liked Doncic the most. Bamba 2nd because I liked his fit with Collins. I also thought he would help Dennis defensively by cleaning up mistakes but I knew year 1 would be a wash for him but I was looking at him long term. I personally thought year 1 would be a wash for Trae too. He played well beyond my expectations before the draft came.

Dennis was a better player than Trae was at that stage and I didn't want to move from Dennis because I still believed he could develop into a top 15-20 PG. Maybe never a top 10 PG but a Jeff Teague level with the right personnel at that time.

I wasn't happy with the trade. I wasn't happy at all. I loved that we got Trae Young but I hate that we lost Doncic who I felt at that time had a much higher floor and a more likely potential. Trae had insane potential but so much had to go right. It's almost like the way I look at Kyler Murray. They need the right system and playing style. I didn't think Bud was a fit and even when Bud quit, I was thinking LP was going to play the style Philly currently plays. I didn't see us going to a D'Antoni Houston style from a defensive minded coach. I was high on Trae but I had questions and we had Dennis.

I liked Kevin once June came around. I didn't see too much of him before that but when I watched his games, I was sold that he could be around the range of 13-30 which is possible. Just like this year, the tier 4 range was absolutely LOADED. My first year expectations for Kevin was G-League for most of the year and flashes at some point. He too completely outplayed my expectations, especially on defense which I actually liked in college for him.

I wasn't sure who we needed to draft at #19 last year as I said on the board at that time. Because I didn't know the direction of the team, I just was like, BPA. I felt we did that plus it was a system fit into how we wanted to play. I predicted we would draft him and Omari before we drafted them just due to the Trae pick.

Looking back at it now: A lot worked out. Trae played beyond expectations as did Kevin. Both were perfect fits for the new system. Dennis got traded and looks like ass and if he did that for another year here, he would be a bad contract so we won on that one and everyone got better under LP other than Baze who did as well till the injury and he lost his athletic ability in the 2nd half of the season.

Overall, it worked out. We now have an identity and a system. Drafting and scouting should be much easier because of that. This is something our old teams only figured out under Bud and the 60 win season and the 90's Hawks did as well but they never drafted all that well. We got an excellent talent evaluator in TS. Things look on the up and up.

I still like Luka and I still feel Bagley will be the best player in this class but Trae has superstar potential and I love the selection as it met my biggest need: We need a transcendent talent and a face of the franchise. Trae is that.If we landed Bagley or Doncic, I would feel the same way and Bamba, I would be more worried as Hawks scouts were right, he just wasn't ready. These are hard to see when you aren't there for the workouts or UT practices. Gametape can only help so much which is why I try to just trust our scouts and coaches.

I was team, anyone but JJJ last year like I am team anyone but Culver this year. Not because I didn't like JJJ because I did and if he was in this year's draft I would trade both picks to move up to get him but last year, we needed a transcendent player. We needed a face of the franchise. We didn't need potentially elite high end role player. We needed "a guy", A Steph, A MJ, A Kobe, A Penny, A Durant. We needed A guy. JJJ is perfect for right now. If we got 2nd overall and Memphis was like JJJ for 2nd overall. I would do it in a heartbeat but not for where we were. Dennis, JJJ and Collins would be limited as hell. On top of that, we would be one of these these teams hoping we can land Morant like Chicago and most of the other bottom 5 teams. I rather have that guy and worry about the rest later which is what we did.

As for Culver, I just don't think he is going to translate. I hope we don't touch him but we will see. Workouts are critical and they test everything. So they have a good take on the players.

[peoriabird]

:D

IF, and that's a great big IF, Hawks do as well in the next draft as they did in the last one, look out! Hawks will be in
the playoffs and the team no one wants to face!!

Three draft picks, all exceeding expectations and "old" Hawks doing so well. And, those free agents! WOW!!

The Hawks are in the playoffs next year regardless of who we draft or sign in free agency...They are better than Detroit right now and are equal or better offensively than the other bottom 3 playoff teams in the East. Just have to work on that defense and Trae's efficiency this summer.

By the way, no Sabonas or Vusevic for me...They aren't worth the money.

[shakes0]

:D

IF, and that's a great big IF, Hawks do as well in the next draft as they did in the last one, look out! Hawks will be in
the playoffs and the team no one wants to face!!

Three draft picks, all exceeding expectations and "old" Hawks doing so well. And, those free agents! WOW!!

The Hawks are in the playoffs next year regardless of who we draft or sign in free agency...They are better than Detroit right now and are equal or better offensively than the other bottom 3 playoff teams in the East. Just have to work on that defense and Trae's efficiency this summer.

By the way, no Sabonas or Vusevic for me...They aren't worth the money.

this is such homer bs

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

[REHawksFan]

:D

IF, and that's a great big IF, Hawks do as well in the next draft as they did in the last one, look out! Hawks will be in
the playoffs and the team no one wants to face!!

Three draft picks, all exceeding expectations and "old" Hawks doing so well. And, those free agents! WOW!!

The Hawks are in the playoffs next year regardless of who we draft or sign in free agency...They are better than Detroit right now and are equal or better offensively than the other bottom 3 playoff teams in the East. Just have to work on that defense and Trae's efficiency this summer.

By the way, no Sabonas or Vusevic for me...They aren't worth the money.

this is such homer bs

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

Meh. Qualitatively dismissing their playoff chances next year (which less than 10% is doing exactly that) is equally negative. The reality is none of us know what the Hawks will do nor do we know what other teams will look like so it's nearly impossible to say at this juncture.

With that said, I'll jump into the fray and just say that it's certainly possible if not probable that the hawks are competing for the playoffs next year. There's only 13 games difference between Atlanta and the 6th spot. That can be made up in a number of ways.

For instance, Collins sat out 21 games in which the Hawks went 5-16. If he plays those games, the Hawks are likely 4 games better based on their WP when he plays. Additionally, the Hawks finished the season 23-30 once Trae got his feet under him by mid December. Just using that WP for the whole year would give an additional 7-8 wins.

Now look at the teams between the Hawks and the playoffs - Orlando, Detroit, Charlotte, Miami, and Wash. Nearly every one of those teams has MAJOR question marks about their roster going forward. Whether its Vuc in Orl, Kemba in Char, DWade in Miami, or Wall in Wash. Those are MAJOR contributors that may not be with the team next season. Maybe they get replaced, maybe they don't. But the only MAJOR player the Hawks have to replace (maybe) is Dedmon and his production is far easier to replace than Kemba, DWade, or Vucevic.

Now look at the teams chasing the Hawks - NYK, Cleveland, and Chicago? The Hawks are ahead of all of those teams (no disrespect intended to your bulls). The reality is, the Eastern Conference affords teams the possibility of a quick rebuild if they make the right decisions. For the Hawks, they will improve simply by getting natural progression from their current young core. And keep in mind that Pierce will be installing his defense this year which wasn't even taught this past year. Add in potentially high draft choices and maybe a FA or two and who know how high they could get.

None of this is guaranteed by any stretch, but it's isn't outlandish to predict the Hawks will compete for the playoffs next season depending on what they and other teams do. And it seems very apparent to anyone paying attention that the Hawks are at least better positioned to make a jump compared to these other teams.

[King Ken]

:D

IF, and that's a great big IF, Hawks do as well in the next draft as they did in the last one, look out! Hawks will be in
the playoffs and the team no one wants to face!!

Three draft picks, all exceeding expectations and "old" Hawks doing so well. And, those free agents! WOW!!

The Hawks are in the playoffs next year regardless of who we draft or sign in free agency...They are better than Detroit right now and are equal or better offensively than the other bottom 3 playoff teams in the East. Just have to work on that defense and Trae's efficiency this summer.

By the way, no Sabonas or Vusevic for me...They aren't worth the money.

this is such homer bs

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

I too have us in the 99%.

Why?

1. Stud prospect PG 2nd years always is 10-15 more wins.
2. Kevin 2nd year and Collins 3rd year. Watch for Collins and Trae to ASers.
3. We got a system that works. That's a big part of it. Nets went from 28 wins to 42 because they had a system that works.

Why we will fail in the playoffs next year.

1. Terrible defense
2. SF position and Center D.
3. Experience

If we could solve 1 and 2 in the offseason, we could be OKC scary. When they were in year 3 of their rebuild.

[peoriabird]

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

Except you'll just disappear like the rest of the dooms day nay sayers so I may as well say my goodbyes now. Still kinda upset that I didn't get a chance to say goodbye to KB21.

[observer1995]

I think next season has a chance at being a low-end playoff team, but I need to see what happens in the offseason before calling it. For as well as the team played after starting 6-23, depth was still shallow, and you saw it manifest in games and could see it in box scores. The team still needs more guys (whether it’s through the draft and/or FAgency) and the younger guys need more experience. Heck the playoff experience as long as the pieces are there (I think even if you sign a veteran PG which I feel will happen, you’re going to need 1 more guy that can handle to be able to target a positive experience there) would be helpful if you’re able to challenge in the series some before losing.

I also think 20/21 is the season where you really take a step but what’s annoying is free agency is weak in 2020. If you’re thinking that 20/21 is “the” year, you really have to explore your options in THIS free agency. Not do anything stupid of course, but if you think it'd be a helpful move for now and the future, make the move.

[graymule]

Old homer checking back in. Vince Carter coming back. That's a plus. Collins and Huerter, starters, were both injured
to start the season and Spellman out, injured, to end the season. Plumlee, injured most all season. How will he be???

Hawks will draft someone. How good or bad he will be? We can only hope that some of these will help our depth. Alex
Len should be back at center and we don't know about Dedmon but he wanted to stay here before.

B

[graymule]

System quit on me. Bembry, healthy at last, became an important piece of our puzzle. Add to all this, Lloyd Pierce
and his crew are here from day one, a season's experience under their belts and ready to teach what they didn't have
time or opportunity to do last season.

To this old homer, this all adds up to being in the playoffs next season. If our health holds out, we will be there!!!

[shakes0]

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

Except you'll just disappear like the rest of the dooms day nay sayers so I may as well say my goodbyes now. Still kinda upset that I didn't get a chance to say goodbye to KB21.

Dude, I've been posting here consistently for a year now. I think it's pretty obvious to the regulars that I'm not going anywhere, I'm fully committed as long as Trae is an employee. Have you even been here 6 months?

[shakes0]

The Hawks are in the playoffs next year regardless of who we draft or sign in free agency...They are better than Detroit right now and are equal or better offensively than the other bottom 3 playoff teams in the East. Just have to work on that defense and Trae's efficiency this summer.

By the way, no Sabonas or Vusevic for me...They aren't worth the money.

this is such homer bs

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

Meh. Qualitatively dismissing their playoff chances next year (which less than 10% is doing exactly that) is equally negative. The reality is none of us know what the Hawks will do nor do we know what other teams will look like so it's nearly impossible to say at this juncture.

With that said, I'll jump into the fray and just say that it's certainly possible if not probable that the hawks are competing for the playoffs next year. There's only 13 games difference between Atlanta and the 6th spot. That can be made up in a number of ways.

For instance, Collins sat out 21 games in which the Hawks went 5-16. If he plays those games, the Hawks are likely 4 games better based on their WP when he plays. Additionally, the Hawks finished the season 23-30 once Trae got his feet under him by mid December. Just using that WP for the whole year would give an additional 7-8 wins.

Now look at the teams between the Hawks and the playoffs - Orlando, Detroit, Charlotte, Miami, and Wash. Nearly every one of those teams has MAJOR question marks about their roster going forward. Whether its Vuc in Orl, Kemba in Char, DWade in Miami, or Wall in Wash. Those are MAJOR contributors that may not be with the team next season. Maybe they get replaced, maybe they don't. But the only MAJOR player the Hawks have to replace (maybe) is Dedmon and his production is far easier to replace than Kemba, DWade, or Vucevic.

Now look at the teams chasing the Hawks - NYK, Cleveland, and Chicago? The Hawks are ahead of all of those teams (no disrespect intended to your bulls). The reality is, the Eastern Conference affords teams the possibility of a quick rebuild if they make the right decisions. For the Hawks, they will improve simply by getting natural progression from their current young core. And keep in mind that Pierce will be installing his defense this year which wasn't even taught this past year. Add in potentially high draft choices and maybe a FA or two and who know how high they could get.

None of this is guaranteed by any stretch, but it's isn't outlandish to predict the Hawks will compete for the playoffs next season depending on what they and other teams do. And it seems very apparent to anyone paying attention that the Hawks are at least better positioned to make a jump compared to these other teams.

Great homer speech! It touched all the bases of a thorough homer speech...."my team is the only team that had to deal with injuries and all the other teams except my team have roster questions going into next year".

You talk about roster issues for other teams, but at this point there's no guarantee that Atlanta is going to be able to field a roster that is better than the team ATL had this season, other than the expected improvement of Trae, JC, Huerter and Spellman.


Like I said, I hope you guys are right and I'm dead wrong and next year we are laughing about this as we watch ATL in the playoffs, but I think a more likely scenario is you guys are setting yourself up to be disappointed. My goal for next season is for the rooks to show noticeable improvement and the roster to be tweaked with the influx of some promising wing rookies and hopefully a rim protector big man. Anything more than that is pure gravy for me.

[peoriabird]

think 20/21 is the season where you really take a step but what’s annoying is free agency is weak in 2020. If you’re thinking that 20/21 is “the” year, you really have to explore your options in THIS free agency. Not do anything stupid of course, but if you think it'd be a helpful move for now and the future, make the move.

Why 20/21 over 19/20? Even if this team adds nothing throught the draft, no one in free agency and no one gets better at anything, we still make a run at the playoffs if the team is healthier next year. But all know that it would be impossible for the 1st 3 to happen. Of course we will add a useful player or 2 out of 5 draft picks from this up coming draft. Of course we will add a useful player or 2 with over $40 million in cap money to spend this off season. And of course all of our young players will get better and develop more cohesion over the summer. And of course the management won't be interested in perposefully losing games next year. If somehow none of the above results in 10-15 extra wins then I personally will be worried about our future.

[peoriabird]

I hope you're right and you get to tell me "told you so" next year, but I doubt it. I'd say less than 10% chance the Hawks make the playoffs next year.

Except you'll just disappear like the rest of the dooms day nay sayers so I may as well say my goodbyes now. Still kinda upset that I didn't get a chance to say goodbye to KB21.

Dude, I've been posting here consistently for a year now. I think it's pretty obvious to the regulars that I'm not going anywhere, I'm fully committed as long as Trae is an employee. Have you even been here 6 months?

KB21 was a regular too! And he is now gone for the same reason.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

You talk about roster issues for other teams, but at this point there's no guarantee that Atlanta is going to be able to field a roster that is better than the team ATL had this season, other than the expected improvement of Trae, JC, Huerter and Spellman.


Like I said, I hope you guys are right and I'm dead wrong and next year we are laughing about this as we watch ATL in the playoffs, but I think a more likely scenario is you guys are setting yourself up to be disappointed. My goal for next season is for the rooks to show noticeable improvement and the roster to be tweaked with the influx of some promising wing rookies and hopefully a rim protector big man. Anything more than that is pure gravy for me.

That doesn't seem like a particularly useful metric. When you look at the age and experience of our players and their development curves to date, you should project there will collectively be some positive development next season (most likely not uniform improvement but collective, net improvement). When you look at the fact that there are two lottery picks likely being added to the roster and how the management team has drafted in recent years, you should project that those are likely to improve the quality of the roster. And when you look at the amount of cap room available and the attractiveness of the team compared to how it was positioned in FA the last few years, you should project that they will add more talent in FA than they have done recently.

None of that guarantees anything and there are a lot of scenarios where they could stumble and regress. But the most reasonable projections should have them with an improved roster next season both in absolute terms and relative to the competition.