Scoots1994 wrote:CrimsonCrew wrote:Scoots1994 wrote:
It's pretty rare to find a #1 WR below the top 15 picks.
That statement reflects exactly the sort of attitude to which I am objecting. According to your argument, which is basically a more extreme version of the one Jikkle is making about DBs, we shouldn't have wasted our second- and third-round picks on a WR, since they're unlikely to develop into elite players. Obviously that's silly. There have been lots of good WRs - even first-ballot HOF WRs - taken outside the first 15 picks. And you don't necessarily need elite players at every spot. You need guys who can hold down a spot and do it well, mixed in with some guys who are special at their position.
It's pretty unusual to find a pro bowl TE in the 5th. Really upset we just wasted the pick on that Kittle guy. What were we thinking? The reality is that all picks are a crap shoot, and the odds of finding good players decrease the further you go into a draft. Smart teams add lots of players and competition to the most important spots (QB, of course, but more cogent for this discussion are CB, DE, OT, WR, FS). That's how you find the values that are absolutely vital to enduring success in today's NFL. I haven't seen any indication to date that Lynch and Shanahan get that. As I said above, we have had a huge need a pass-rusher since they came in. For two years we basically just ignored the position. We took a few low-risk chances in FA, which is a strategy I agree with. But we did nothing in the draft (unless they considered Solomon Thomas an impact edge rusher; if they did, we're probably just sunk). So this year we threw a ton of resources to solve the long-standing position. And just to be clear, I don't disagree with those decisions (Ford trade and contract, Bosa pick). But you can't solve every position with that approach. I'm also not at all confident they would have solved the pass rush issue. Even if they had moved up for Harold Landry instead of Pettis last year, as I wanted, we would have still had a need at the position. But at least we'd have some players competing there.
Returning to your statement, who needs a #1 receiver anyway? Especially in Shanahan's system. Pierre Garcon put up elite numbers under Shanahan in Washington, but I wouldn't consider him a #1 receiver (granted he was a very good player throughout his career; he was also a sixth-round pick, incidentally). Of the top receivers in today's NFL, Tyreek Hill, Michael Thomas, Juju Smith-Schuster, Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Robert Woods, Keenan Allen, Kenny Golladay, Tyler Boyd, Stefon Diggs, Jarvis Landry, and Tyler Lockett were all taken outside the first round. All were top-20 in receiving yards this past season. Two of the best were undrafted. And to clarify, although I wasn't thrilled with Samuel at 36, that pick was almost certainly my second-favorite of this draft. My bigger issues were reaching for Hurd and drafting a punter instead of adding guys on the back end. Hurd in the fourth or fifth would have been great. A punter in the sixth would have been fine. Our FO is suggesting that they think our team is much better than it is. If everything goes off without a hitch, then we should be playoff competitors. But if we suffer one or two important injuries - and let's not even factor in QB here - we're hosed.
Wow. I didn't make any of those arguments with my statement. The reality is that the vast majority of hall of fame WRs in the last 30 years have been taken at the very top of the draft.
I didn't say that's what the 49ers needed to do.
That appeared to be the suggestion of your argument. Obviously I don't think you are proposing that we should never take a WR outside the top-15, but my view is that we should hold that opinion in every round. Every draft has at least a couple players who can contribute - and often be very good - in the last couple rounds or even who go undrafted. That is true of high and low-value positions.
The reality is that more HOF players at any position were taken in the first than any other round. That's not a surprise. Though later-round WRs tend to have more success than many other premium positions (obviously relatively few centers, guards, TEs, FBs, box safeties get drafted in the first round, so accounting for that). You still want to add as many players to the mix as possible at high-impact positions.
And you're wrong about HOFers. Looking at those last 30 years (of hall classes, anyway; not sure if you mean players within the last thirty years), 16 WRs have been admitted to the hall. Half of them were first round picks, and three of those went top-15 (fewer than 20%). The other eight all went in the third or later (an impressive five fourth-rounders, two thirds, and a seventh). It's not a vast majority that went early first. It's a few.
If we're looking at potential upcoming classes, Isaac Bruce, Steve Smith, and Hines Ward all went in the third. Antonio Brown went in the sixth. Anquan Boldin in the second. It is true that several early WRs have been dominant over the past decade, including Fitzgerald, Andre and Calvin Johnson, AJ Green, Julio Jones, and Odell Beckham. I expect all of them to make the HOF, and they all went top-15 (all top-6 except Beckham). But again, there are lots of productive WRs from all over the draft.
I've been a fan of John Dorsey & the moves he's made from the beginning, but now I may have to go to fanboy status.