2019 Deadline Thread

[Wo1verine]

Obviously not surprising lets hope we don't waste lots of our time with Vlad being cheap.

The 2019 Toronto Blue Jays campaign became infinitely more interesting late last week when the team finally called up 20-year-old phenom Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a transaction that could merely end up being the tip of the iceberg according to MLB insider Ken Rosenthal.

Guerrero’s major-league debut and high-ceiling potential has sparked interest from baseball fans and pundits south of the border in addition to Canada and during a Monday roundtable discussion with Brain Kenny, Sarah Langs and Dan O’Dowd on MLB Network, Rosenthal provided some insight into how Blue Jays management might choose to construct the roster going forward.

“It’s going to be really interesting to watch the Jays over the next few months because what I believe they’re going to do – what I’m told they’re going to do – is try to trade [Marcus] Stroman, [Aaron] Sanchez, [Justin] Smoak and others to get more young talent in Vladdy’s age range and service class and then build up that way,” Rosenthal said.

https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/report-blue-jays-try-trading-stroman-sanchez-smoak/

[duppyy]

Hopefully, we get great returns. Also can't wait for Bo to get healed up and join the big club.

[Ado05]

Sounds good. Hopefully they can hit some home runs.

[Natural11]

Makes sense. Our lack of young pitching prospects is a concern. But I am looking forward to seeing Bo once he's recovered and I expect we may see Biggio this year as well.

I wonder how the fan base will react to trading Stroman, Sanchez and Smoak if we're overachieving though. It seems as though the fan base has accepted that this is a rebuild season based on attendance, yet here they are at .500 and playing quite well of late.

[dagger]

Makes sense. Our lack of young pitching prospects is a concern. But I am looking forward to seeing Bo once he's recovered and I expect we may see Biggio this year as well.

I wonder how the fan base will react to trading Stroman, Sanchez and Smoak if we're overachieving though. It seems as though the fan base has accepted that this is a rebuild season based on attendance, yet here they are at .500 and playing quite well of late.

I suspect that management will take its time, let a market develop and hopefully have two contenders in the same division - like Dodgers and Padres - compete for Stroman in particular. With the Shoemaker injury and a heavier schedule coming up, with Borucki almost a month away at the very least and with no pitching depth left at Buffalo, this bit of overachieving is unlikely to last.

[Tanner]

They better hit a f'n grand slam with a Stroman trade if they move him. The market is making keeping players more desirable than trading them, as players are signing more reasonable extensions and teams don't trade top prospects anymore so trades are less advantageous. Best case for the Jays is if a team that hasn't won in a while and has a deep farm system is on the market for a Sp (Padres).

[Schad]

The market has been more favourable, but on a player-by-player basis; Eovaldi certainly didn't sign a sweetheart extension, as an example. So the question is whether Stroman's willing to sign a below-market (relative to what the market was a year or two ago) deal right now, or whether he'd like to get closer to free agency before making a decision. Because if it's the latter, we simply cannot afford to wait him out.

[sule]

My concern with trading Stroman and Sanchez, besides them being young pitchers in or near their primes, is that if we are expecting to be in or near contention in 2-3 years time, who are the stud pitchers on the farm that are ready to come up and make an impact and become a #1 on a contender?

And if we don't have that, then how much is it going to cost to acquire starting pitchers capable of leading this team? People can shout about variance in pitcher performance all they want, but how do we acquire a near full starting lineup of pitchers that can carry the load in the AL East? In free agency, we'd be competing with the BoSox and Yankees and Angels and Dodgers for top pitchers, and any trades will likely have to include top prospects from the farm.

I might be wrong, but I don't see any clear ace pitchers on the farm at the moment.

[Schad]

My concern with trading Stroman and Sanchez, besides them being young pitchers in or near their primes, is that if we are expecting to be in or near contention in 2-3 years time, who are the stud pitchers on the farm that are ready to come up and make an impact and become a #1 on a contender?

And if we don't have that, then how much is it going to cost to acquire starting pitchers capable of leading this team? People can shout about variance in pitcher performance all they want, but how do we acquire a near full starting lineup of pitchers that can carry the load in the AL East? In free agency, we'd be competing with the BoSox and Yankees and Angels and Dodgers for top pitchers, and any trades will likely have to include top prospects from the farm.

I might be wrong, but I don't see any clear ace pitchers on the farm at the moment.

Well, that's the issue with the pitching we do have, as well. Stroman has been an above-average starter to this point in his career, but he hasn't been an ace, and he doesn't really have ace stuff or ace control. There's plenty of value in a solid #2, if that's indeed what he is, but spending more than $20m a year to lock that down when he'll be in his 30s by the time we're competing isn't the greatest place to start.

Sanchez is...I have no idea. Probably not even a starter unless his control improves. Probably doesn't have a tonne of trade value either, but if someone's giving up substance because they see the radar gun and his 2016 results, you kinda take it and run.

[Tanner]

The market has been more favourable, but on a player-by-player basis; Eovaldi certainly didn't sign a sweetheart extension, as an example. So the question is whether Stroman's willing to sign a below-market (relative to what the market was a year or two ago) deal right now, or whether he'd like to get closer to free agency before making a decision. Because if it's the latter, we simply cannot afford to wait him out.

I think a deal with him is possible in the winter when he has a year of arb left (Verlander and Sale signed extensions with a year left on their deals), but then you run the risk of not working a deal out and having to trade him with even less control than he comes with now. I don't know what the right answer is. I don't think trading him for B level prospects really helps us long term, but signing him for another 4 years would at least give the Jays a 3-3.5 war starter during a time when we don't have much in the system. Of course there is risk in that too since he is a pitcher and that by itself makes it risky.

The return would have to be great for me to move him. The Jays don't have the type of track record that Tampa does with player development where they can trade him for Meadows/Glasnow types and turn them into stars, but that's really the only way to do it. . If we get players far away from the bigs, then it doesn't line up with Vlad's time frame.

[Schad]

Perhaps a deal is possible with him, but it'd be on his terms; we wouldn't really have any leverage with him one year from FA with Stroman coming off a good season, so we would need to be prepared to pay his asking price. And if we aren't, then we have no business doing it, because it'd be a massive and purely speculative value sink.

And even if a player isn't up for a couple years, an ETA 2021 prospect is likely to be productive for more of our competitive Vlad years than an extended Stroman. Barring a miracle, we aren't a playoff team this year or next; Stroman on a five-year deal gets you a 2021-2023 window, whereas a pitching prospect hitting their stride in 2022 gives you a window of four years through the end of Vlad's arb time. And, of course, if we keep Vlad they'll still be around for further prime years.

[S.W.A.N]

Trade them all. Getting value for these guys should be paramount. Especially if they continue to have success this year and build up more value. We need an influx of talent that better lines up with Vlad and the B's prime years.

I'd be excited to get back some high end pitching prospects if possible.

[guvernator]

Stroman will fetch a lot if hes starting the ASG. Both Braves and Padres need pitching and I can't stop dreaming of a Pearson/Gore 1-2 punch in 2021.

[BigLeagueChew]

Stroman is 5th in FIP right now.

Another surpring name among FIP leaders, Matt Boyd.

[Metallikid]

Other than Smoak don't we have the other two under contract for several more seasons? Why would we give up controllable good starting pitchers when that's our biggest weakness?

[Schad]

Other than Smoak don't we have the other two under contract for several more seasons? Why would we give up controllable good starting pitchers when that's our biggest weakness?

Both Sanchez and Stroman will hit free agency after next season.

[Metallikid]

Other than Smoak don't we have the other two under contract for several more seasons? Why would we give up controllable good starting pitchers when that's our biggest weakness?

Both Sanchez and Stroman will hit free agency after next season.

How difficult is it actually going to be to retain them? It's not like we have any replacements. Is Shapiro going to build our entire pitching staff from Matt Shoemakers?

[Schad]

How difficult is it actually going to be to retain them? It's not like we have any replacements. Is Shapiro going to build our entire pitching staff from Matt Shoemakers?

No idea. Stroman's projected salary is something like $20m a year over 5. Sanchez I wouldn't give a long-term extension to, because he remains totally unfamiliar with the strike zone.

Our replacements would, presumably, be some combination of prospects and pickups, and yeah: in the next couple seasons, a fair number of Shoemakers, because the next couple seasons don't really matter. Nate Pearson's a serious pitching prospect: has some red flags (as do most pitching prospects), but he has some of the most dominant stuff in the minor leagues. We also have a motley collection of guys nearer to the majors, and a couple high-end arms that are quite a bit further away. The goal would be to fill one slot early in the rotation with a home-grown arm, maybe one or two back-end rotation/depth spots from the farm, and perhaps find the rest elsewhere. But again, we have a couple seasons to figure out what we have before we really need to worry about the specifics.

[Metallikid]

How difficult is it actually going to be to retain them? It's not like we have any replacements. Is Shapiro going to build our entire pitching staff from Matt Shoemakers?

No idea. Stroman's projected salary is something like $20m a year over 5. Sanchez I wouldn't give a long-term extension to, because he remains totally unfamiliar with the strike zone.

Our replacements would, presumably, be some combination of prospects and pickups, and yeah: in the next couple seasons, a fair number of Shoemakers, because the next couple seasons don't really matter. Nate Pearson's a serious pitching prospect: has some red flags (as do most pitching prospects), but he has some of the most dominant stuff in the minor leagues. We also have a motley collection of guys nearer to the majors, and a couple high-end arms that are quite a bit further away. The goal would be to fill one slot early in the rotation with a home-grown arm, maybe one or two back-end rotation/depth spots from the farm, and perhaps find the rest elsewhere. But again, we have a couple seasons to figure out what we have before we really need to worry about the specifics.

That's a reasonable take, but why let this kind of info out now help them at all? It just depresses the price. And that's besides trading them during the season. We should have just moved them this offseason and started the season with question marks that we could evaluate. Do you agree?

[Schad]

That's a reasonable take, but why let this kind of info out now help them at all? It just depresses the price. And that's besides trading them during the season. We should have just moved them this offseason and started the season with question marks that we could evaluate. Do you agree?

Everyone in baseball knows and has known that we're looking to move them, though. We actually tried in the winter, but our asking price (on Stroman, in particular) was considered to be too high, given that his headline stats from 2018 kinda sucked. Even with the lost control time, Stroman after a good half-season should be more valuable than Stroman coming off his worst professional season and a 5.54 ERA.

With Sanchez, I honestly don't know what the best direction is. He's coming off two injury-plagued years where his performance has been middling at best, but perhaps if he keeps his ERA anomalously low and stays healthy, a team will overlook the crazy walk rate/low swinging strike count and talk themselves into him as a mid-rotation guy with the stuff to be better with a little refinement.