2019 MLB Draft thread, June 3 - 5

[Schad]

So, we've reached that time of the year again: there are less than six weeks to go before we select a bunch of players who are bad at defense and will never win anything, as is the Mark Shapiro way. Picks are as follows:

1st round: 11th overall.
2nd round: 52nd overall.
3rd round: 88th overall.
4th round: 117th overall
5th-40th: every 30 picks thereafter.

ARE THERE HIGH SCHOOL ARMS TO LUST AFTER!?

Damned right there are. Quinn Priester is a helium guy: a cold-climate RHSP who has jumped into the first round conversation and could go higher on the strength of his fastball and elite-level curveball spin. There's Matthew Allen, a beefy young gentleman whose MLB Pipeline photo bears an unsettling resemblance to a young Brad Garrett. There's Brennan Malone, the classic 'big fastball and projectable everything' prospect. There's Daniel Espino, who hits 100, flashes plus secondary stuff, and generally looks like he's trying to dislocate his right shoulder. And there'll probably be a half-dozen others who catch the eye.


ARE THERE LARGE ADULT SONS!?

Not just large adult sons: large adult Jays sons! Al Leiter's kid Jack has first-round stuff. Glenallen Hill Jr has a good chance to go on the second day. There's also Bobby Witt Jr, who will likely be off the board before we pick. Jordan Groshans' older brother Jaxx (urrrrrrrgh) is a potential top 10 rounder, for what it's worth.

Also, that Glenallen Hill's kid is only now a draft-eligible HSer is the first time that one of these hasn't made me feel ancient. It could still be 2004, you don't **** know!


ARE THERE GREAT NAMES!?

I'm sorry to say that the first day of this draft has some of the dullest names imaginable. I mean, Adley Rutschman (the presumptive 1st overall pick) sounds like he could have played with Honus Wagner, so it's a nice throwback name. And J.J. Bleday rolls off the tongue wonderfully. Keoni Cavaco, Sammy Siani, Hunter Barco...these are decent names, but are these the sort of names that would cause me to throw away all logic and draft them on that basis alone, a la Touki Touissant? No, no they are not.

[-MetA4-]

We're at kind of a weird spot IMO. Literally no idea who is even going to be available to us, or who I'd even prefer at this point. Corbin Carroll looks like the highest rated player who COULD maybe get pushed down to us, but he just as easily could be gone. Manoah looks like he's risen past our pick, Thompson is rising and could be available but he's kind of blah IMO (arm concerns, inconsistency in general). Stott could be there (but probably not), but do we really want to take another SS (even accounting for not drafting based off need). Jung and Busch are uninspiring IMO. I think they'd love to get one of Bleday or Bishop but it looks like a zero possibility on Bleday and a slim chance of Bishop being there at this point.

Could be another under-slot situation. Brett Baty is old as **** for a HS kid but he's killing the baseball.

[Schad]

Really don't want Thompson; he has all of the red flags.

We're definitely in an interesting position, though. Unless someone tumbles, we kinda have the first pick of the rest of the draft...slot difference between our pick at 11 and the 20th pick is over $1m, so it wouldn't shock me either if we went underslot on someone who might otherwise expect to go in the 20s. One of the pop-up guys like Priester or Cavaco could be a possibility there, depending on what their demand mid-round might be like.

I'd love for us to pick up a competitive balance pick in trade, though the opportunities for doing so during the season are often few and far between. An extra mil or so in bonus pool would really open up options.

[-MetA4-]

Yeah I'm not into Thompson either. Manoah I'd be interested in rolling the dice on even with the reliever risk.

You are right that we are kind of picking first among the "3rd tier", which isn't ideal. It looked a lot better for us when Misner was rising up the board and it looked like we could at least have a good shot at landing him, but then he tanked in SEC play and has fallen back down again. I guess they could still take that shot if they feel confident in fixing him because his tools still haven't changed.

[Schad]

I wouldn't be against Manoah. Think there's a good chance he goes above our pick, though; the thirst for college arms is always strong, and he's been so dominant against big programs this past month.

If nothing else, with he/Pearson, we'd be well on our way to having a dominant volleyball team if baseball doesn't work out.

[Wally West]

Spencer Jones intrigues the s*** out of me! 6'7" outfielder/first baseman, projects to have 65-70 raw power but if he fills out, I see a future 80 on the power tool even in game, projects to be an average hitter, above average runner. If he wasn't hurt, probably would be in the running for our pick. Also pitches too so could have that as a fallback option or play both ways in pro-ball. Also intrigued by the pure stuff of Daniel Espino and Jackson Rutledge but Espino's arm action is a red flag and Rutledge projects to have below average command as we stand. I'd probably still roll the dice of Rutledge though as he has similarities to our own Nate Pearson.

[Skin Blues]

Spencer Jones intrigues the s*** out of me! 6'7" outfielder/first baseman, projects to have 65-70 raw power but if he fills out, I see a future 80 on the power tool even in game, projects to be an average hitter, above average runner. If he wasn't hurt, probably would be in the running for our pick. Also pitches too so could have that as a fallback option or play both ways in pro-ball. Also intrigued by the pure stuff of Daniel Espino and Jackson Rutledge but Espino's arm action is a red flag and Rutledge projects to have below average command as we stand. I'd probably still roll the dice of Rutledge though as he has similarities to our own Nate Pearson.

Reminds me of Cody Bellinger. That'd be nice.

[Wally West]

Spencer Jones intrigues the s*** out of me! 6'7" outfielder/first baseman, projects to have 65-70 raw power but if he fills out, I see a future 80 on the power tool even in game, projects to be an average hitter, above average runner. If he wasn't hurt, probably would be in the running for our pick. Also pitches too so could have that as a fallback option or play both ways in pro-ball. Also intrigued by the pure stuff of Daniel Espino and Jackson Rutledge but Espino's arm action is a red flag and Rutledge projects to have below average command as we stand. I'd probably still roll the dice of Rutledge though as he has similarities to our own Nate Pearson.

Reminds me of Cody Bellinger. That'd be nice.

That's actually no bad of a comp in terms of tools and progression as Bellinger only hit 1 homerun in high school. It'll be interesting to see if he does come back in time before the draft as he's hurt. From everything I know about him, I'd absolutely roll the dice.

[Schad]

Speculative, but might as well post.

Jennifer : Loved your top 10 mock! Who would be your pick for the Blue Jays in that scenario?

12:30
Kiley McDaniel: Don’t have a ton of dope on their preferences there, but the leading candidates would be the four referenced in the article (Jung, Busch, Carroll, Thompson) as top 10 candidates that didn’t make the mock. I think they are leaning college and Jung would be my best guess.

Mike: Who are the known “hard signs” from the HS ranks who demand way more than your current ranking on your BOARD?

12:41
Kiley McDaniel: Rumors are $4M+ on Jack Leiter, sounds like Spencer Jones will be $2M+, Jerrion Ealy is probably about $2M. There’s some prep arms we have at the bottom of the 40’s or 35+’s that are $1.5M or more. Blake Walston also sounds like he’ll be overslot if he gets outside of the comp round. Brett Thomas sounds like he’ll be a good bit over $1M. Tre Fletcher should be tough after the first day. Vanderbilt looks well positioned to get a couple more studs on campus again, since they have half the guys I just mentioned and a couple others on the board with a big number.

[-MetA4-]

New BA mock; as I expected

11 Tor
Brett Baty
Lake Travis (Austin) HS 3B

Notes:
Toronto has been in to see Lakeside (Seattle) High outfielder Corbin Carroll quite a bit this spring, but they’ve also lately had some heat in to bear down on Lake Travis (Austin) High third baseman Brett Baty. While the two are vastly different prospects, they are the best prep bats on the board here. Last year the Blue Jays popped Texas-based prep shortstop Jordan Groshans and signed him under slot at No. 12 and they could do something similar this year with Baty, who will get Nolan Gorman comps but will also get dinged by draft models that punish older players.

[Black Watch]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-s-first-2019-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

New MLB.com mock draft has us taking Jackson Rutledge in the first round

Here is mlb.com's top 100 in this year's draft class: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

[dagger]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-s-first-2019-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

New MLB.com mock draft has us taking Jackson Rutledge in the first round

Here is mlb.com's top 100 in this year's draft class: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

Considering the Jays didn't hesitate to go JUCO with Nate Pearson, they might view Rutledge favorably, and like the idea of another power arm.

[Schad]

Random note: one of Rutledge's coaches at San Jacinto is Woody Williams.

Wouldn't be against him, though he seems to be a really divisive prospect beyond his fastball. Some places like the breaking stuff, some don't. Some think that his command needs to be cleaned up a bit, some think he's pretty raw in that regard. Only turned 20 a month ago, so he's not much older than some high school prospects. Be curious what his ask might be.

[SharoneWright]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-pipeline-s-first-2019-mock-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

New MLB.com mock draft has us taking Jackson Rutledge in the first round

Here is mlb.com's top 100 in this year's draft class: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=draft

Thanks! A nice quick summation of some of the bigger names for those of us who haven't been following as closely.

[Wally West]

Keith Law’s Mock Draft version 1.0

11. Toronto Blue Jays: Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

I keep hearing Toronto with college guys (even though its first-rounder from last year, prep infielder Jordan Groshans, is off to a fantastic start in low-A), and if Manoah gets here, that's a huge win.

Here’s 2080 Baseball which is less reputable’s first mock draft.

1:11 Blue Jays: Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside (WA)
Video | Video | Video | Video

The UCLA commit is a burner (plus-plus run) who can go get it on the grass in addition to legging out extra bases with ease. He has excellent feel for the barrel and good strength in his core to go with fast twitch actions, hinting at a nice bump in future power. Carroll slots in well to a Blue Jays system that has well blended high floor college picks and upside high schoolers. –NF

[phillipmike]

https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-mock-draft-2019-oregon-state-catcher-heavy-favorite-to-go-no-1-overall-to-orioles/

11. Blue Jays:
Pick: SS Bryson Stott, UNLV
At this point Stott is the best player still on the board, and I don't see the Blue Jays messing around. They'll take the best player. Stott went into this weekend with a .365/.498/.652 batting line and 10 homers in 46 games. A lefty hitting middle infielder with good bat-to-ball skills and a history of good performance at the Division I level will forever be a target at the top of the draft. Even if he has to move to second base, Stotts can do a lot to help his club win.

[emptytheclip]

https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/mlb-mock-draft/
https://www.baseballamerica.com/rankings/2019-top-mlb-draft-prospects/

Brett Baty
Lake Travis (Austin) HS3B
Notes:
Toronto has been in to see Lakeside (Seattle) High outfielder Corbin Carroll quite a bit this spring, but they’ve also lately had some heat in to bear down on Lake Travis (Austin) High third baseman Brett Baty. While the two are vastly different prospects, they are the best prep bats on the board here. Last year the Blue Jays popped Texas-based prep shortstop Jordan Groshans and signed him under slot at No. 12 and they could do something similar this year with Baty, who will get Nolan Gorman comps but will also get dinged by draft models that punish older players.

Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 218 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Texas
Scouting Report: If there’s a player who could rival Rece Hinds for the most raw power in the 2018 class, Baty might be the best bet. The corner infielder from Texas brings plenty of pop to the table with a physical, 6-foot-3, 218-pound frame and quick, uppercut swing from the left side. Baty hit the ball hard more consistently than most prep hitters throughout the summer and routinely stands out during batting practice with power to all fields. Like many big, power-hitting high school infielders, defense will be the question with Baty. He’s a more natural fit for first base and will need to improve his glovework, exchange and throwing accuracy to continue at third base. Baty is committed to Texas.

Baseball America also mocked us for Corbin Caroll previously

Corbin Carroll
Lakeside (Seattle) HSOF
Notes:
We’ve previously had Carroll as high as No. 6. That’s starting to seem too rich, though through no fault of his play this spring. He’s hit exactly as expected. It’s more a case of Carroll’s size being questioned, at least when compared to some of the players who seem more safely in the top 10 range at the moment. Carroll should garner interest throughout the teens and the Mets specifically have higher-level decision makers going in to get looks.

Ht: 5-10 | Wt: 160 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: UCLA
Scouting Report: Carroll established himself as one of the best pure bats in the class over the summer after dominating at the plate in every high-profile event he attended. The 5-foot-9, 165-pound outfielder has a quick, balanced swing and a terrific feel for the barrel, as well as a keen understanding of the strike zone and a patient approach in the lefthanded batter’s box. Carroll is more than willing to take a walk and then cause havoc on the bases as a plus runner, but he also has sneaky pop in his bat that allows him to hit for extra bases. Defensively, Carroll projects to stick in center field and be a solid defender there. Add everything up and there are no real holes in Carroll’s game—unless you want to nitpick his size. He is committed to UCLA.

I’ll post a couple more from the names mentioned above since people might be interested.

Bryson Stott
It sounds like Atlanta is hoping Bishop falls to them at No. 9. In this scenario it comes close, but with the Rangers taking him the Braves could pivot to the best college shortstop in the class. Most sources think the Braves are going to lean towards a college hitter here and that makes sense on a number of levels despite Atlanta’s typical proclivity for high-upside prep pitchers. Atlanta’s No. 4 ranked farm system is overflowing with arms and could use more up the middle position players. Yeah, yeah, you don’t draft for need blah, blah, blah but this pick would make sense on both talent and need. So we’re going with it.

Nevada-Las VegasSS
Notes:
Ht: 6-3 | Wt: 195 | B-T: L-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Scouting Report: One of the top shortstops in the 2019 class, Stott has hit well in two years with Nevada-Las Vegas in the Mountain West Conference, posting a combined .333 /.405/.474 slash line during his first two years. Stott joined the Collegiate National Team this summer and impressed the coaching staff with his defensive work up the middle, with improved footwork as well as solid body control and accurate throws to the bag. He showed solid feel for the barrel, but scouts were disappointed with the amount of impact Stott generated with an approach that was too frequently slap-heavy. The look raised some concern for his overall offensive package, but Stott does have a solid wood-bat track record outside of Team USA, in both the Cape Cod and Northwoods Summer Leagues.

Alek Manoah
With the top hitters in the class gone, a small run of pitching could start around here and Manoah has been making his case with exclamation points the last four weeks. Against Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Kansas and Texas Manoah has thrown 33 innings with 49 strikeouts, two walks and just one run allowed (0.27 ERA). He’s been the most dominant pitcher in the country for a month and has answered questions about his ability to start, hold his stuff and throw strikes—he’s cut his walk rate significantly from his freshman and senior seasons. Kentucky lefthander Zack Thompson starts to get mentioned in this range as well, though his medical history complicates things.

Ht: 6-6 | Wt: 260 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Scouting Report: Manoah has mostly worked out of the bullpen over the last two years for West Virginia, but this summer he was one of the best starters on the Cape. Manoah strikes an imposing figure on the mound at a listed 6-foot-7, 270 pounds and has the fastball to match. He pitches in the mid-90s and can touch 98 mph in shorter stints. His slider is his best secondary pitch and has the makings of a plus offering. He also mixes in a good changeup. Manoah fills the strike zone and holds his velocity well, giving plenty of indications that he can remain in the rotation. He figures to become one of the highest drafted players in West Virginia history, with a chance to become the program’s first first-rounder since 1997.

Jackson Rutledge
Only three junior college pitchers have been picked higher than No. 14, and all of those pitchers (RHP Alex Fernandez, RHP Kevin Appier, Aaron Akin) were selected in the 80s and 90s. Rutledge won’t set an all-time record for the highest-selected juco arm, but he could beat the mark set by Phil Bickford (No. 18 in 2015) this century. Improved control and a refined slider have allowed Rutledge to put himself in first round consideration this spring.

Ht: 6-8 | Wt: 260 | B-T: R-R
Commit/Drafted: Never Drafted
Scouting Report: The top junior college prospect not named Carter Stewart, Rutledge was ranked No. 183 on the 2017 BA 500 coming out of high school. A built righthander at 6-foot-8 and 260 pounds, Rutledge has a frame that could potentially handle a large workload, even as the game trends in the other direction at the major league level. He has a premium fastball that was in the low 90s out of high school and has ticked up since then, and it has outstanding downward, running life thanks to the natural angle he gets from his three-quarter arm slot. Rutledge also has a slider that could wind up being a putaway offering.

[Schad]

I'd be happy with Carroll. I find the size concerns increasingly bizarre in today's game, given that there are a lot of midgets with bat speed producing at least average power. Being 5'9"ish hasn't exactly harmed Andrew Benintendi.

[emptytheclip]

Spencer Jones intrigues the s*** out of me! 6'7" outfielder/first baseman, projects to have 65-70 raw power but if he fills out, I see a future 80 on the power tool even in game, projects to be an average hitter, above average runner. If he wasn't hurt, probably would be in the running for our pick. Also pitches too so could have that as a fallback option or play both ways in pro-ball. Also intrigued by the pure stuff of Daniel Espino and Jackson Rutledge but Espino's arm action is a red flag and Rutledge projects to have below average command as we stand. I'd probably still roll the dice of Rutledge though as he has similarities to our own Nate Pearson.

Here’s what BA has on Spencer Jones

Spencer Jones, Rank no. 81
La Costa Canyon HS, Carlsbad, Calif.
LHP
Notes:
Ht: 6-7 | Wt: 212 | B-T: L-L
Commit/Drafted: Vanderbilt
Scouting Report: The top two-way player in the class, Jones is a lanky, 6-foot-7, 212-pound lefthanded pitcher and first baseman. While he has more upside as a pitcher, Jones did show good feel for the barrel and is surprisingly athletic for his size, stealing bases and posting a 4.22-second home-to-first run time at the Area Code Games this summer. On the mound, Jones throws a fastball that is mostly in the 89-93 mph range in short stints, but also has a mid- to upper-70s curveball with tremendous depth that projects as a plus offering. Because of his size, athleticism and the efficiency of his delivery despite only pitching seriously for about a year, Jones has some of the highest upside of any player in the class. He is committed to Vanderbilt.

[emptytheclip]

I'd be happy with Carroll. I find the size concerns increasingly bizarre in today's game, given that there are a lot of midgets with bat speed producing at least average power. Being 5'9"ish hasn't exactly harmed Andrew Benintendi.

I know they say “don’t draft for need”, but coincidentally some of the top prospect in our pick range happen to be outfielders, and we could really use one. Give me a guy that has tremendous hitting ability and we’ll figure out the rest later. I love the Groshans pick now but at the time I really wanted Jared Kelenic to fall to us, they’re both mashing now in A ball.

When Bledday’s stock was rising I was hoping he wouldn’t go too far up past our pick at 11, but then he had and go crush the hell out of baseballs in the SEC.

Bishop scares me a little bit, he’s exploded onto first round mocks despite mediocre numbers as a freshmen and sophomore. Both Bishop and Misner are very toolsy OF guys with some risk but solid upside. Potential 4 or 5 tool college guys that might not need 5 yrs to reach the majors.

Caroll is probably my pick between the three if Bledday is taken (most likely). His size doesn’t really bother me. 5-10 with shoes, 165lbs at 18 years old. Sign me up if his tools are real.

I know MLB Pipeline isn’t always accurate, but they graded Carroll’s tools:
Hit: 60 | Power: 40 | Run: 70 | Arm: 45 | Field: 55 | Overall: 55

I’d take an 18 year old with plus hit, speed, and glove and figure out the rest later. Bonus points for being a lefty like Kelenic last year.