The CP3 Thread 18-19 Part 1

[eminence]

I think the more accurate take away is that CP3 just doesn't have that star level in him any more. Shouldn't be a huge surprise, this is what his 14th season? On the whole he's been a good playoff performer over his career (with a few notable failings like pretty much any player).

[HeartBreakKid]

Yeah I don't get it - this is how he's been playing the whole year, how is he choking? He's clearly past it.

[bledredwine]

Chris Paul shrinking in the most important playoff moments happens EVERY. SINGLE. YEAR.

But there's a group of posters who won't aknowledge it. At this point, you just accept it for what it is- pure denial.

When I get to this point (as I have with some of the other players on this forum as well, you know who I'm alluding to), I can finally be at peace with knowing it's not actually a matter of facts but rather that they choose to believe what they want.

How did he shrink last year? He was the best player on both the Rockets and Warriors. Or the year before that...or the year before that. Losing doesn't mean shrinking. "there are a group of people who refuse to acknowledge that".


Chris Paul is not in his prime anymore...

We've been over all of this and you know very well Chris Paul's constant struggles that I'm speaking of, last year or not.
Here's a the re-pasted post from the other thread which I believe you saw. Now add this year's disappearance and going 3 for 14 with 3 turnovers, and 5 fouls in a pivotal game with James Harden crushing it to his list.

Re-Pasted Post

Chris Paul has more playoff series in which he was outplayed by a notable PG (2009 Billups, 2012 Parker, 2014 Curry, 2014 Westbrook) than vice-versa (2008 Parker and 2016 Lillard). How can someone be a top 5 PG of all-time when he is usually outplayed by opposing PGs from his own era in playoff series?

If Chris Paul was one to confidently win his matchups, then I would have a different opinion of him. But add that he hasn't stood out from Westbrook/young Steph and the collapses? I can't rank him top 5... since 2008 (despite game 7, he was top 5 IMO)

This article explains my woes with Paul better than my memory can. Paul has simply had way too many collapses in the playoffs. - http://chrispauloverrated.blogspot.com/2017/02/section-1-myth-that-chris-paul-doesnt.html



2008 WCSF

1. Tyson Chandler was mainly responsible for Duncan shooting 42.1% FG in the 2008 WCSF

Tim Duncan 2008 Playoffs

10 games vs PHX/LAL
23.6 ppg 15.6 rpg 46.1% FG (95/206)

7 games vs NOH
15.3 ppg 13.0 rpg 42.1% FG (40/95)

This is the 3rd-worst shooting series of Duncan's career after the 2016 WCSF (Age 40 and last series of his career) and 2005 Finals. Stacked defensive help by Chandler.

2. Paul had a huge statistical series, but choked in the most critical stretch of Game 7 with the season on the line.

In the last 6:50 of Game 7, CP3 had 0 points on 0/2 FG with 1 assist to 1 turnover

3. He allowed Tony Parker to have 8 points in the 4th quarter including the sealing shot in CP3's overrated face, and expose his defense for the series.

4. Jannero Pargo had 16 pts in 4th quarter of Game 7.

5. Chandler held Duncan to 2 pts in 4th quarter of Game 7
- Both points came on a foul by David West

6. David West had 20 ppg 9 rpg on 45% in the series. Some of this was due to Paul's passing, but West also had 15-16 ppg during the Pacers 2012 ECSF, 2013 ECF, and 2014 ECF playoff runs. West was playing less minutes than in New Orleans, in longer playoff runs, and without any good playmakers to set him up.

No excuses about not enough help there.

CP3 individually failed his team in the season-deciding stretch of Game 7, not the other way around. If any true all-time great had 0 points in the last near-7 minutes of a Game 7, and got the dagger nailed in their face, everybody would be all over them regardless of their statistical performance.

But because everyone unconsciously knows that CP3 isn't a true great, nobody remembers this choke job because he isn't held to an all-time great standard (even though most don't realize it), yet he gets undeserved praise an all-time great without being held to that standard.

2009 1st Round

Paul was dominated, exposed, outplayed, and destroyed individually by Chauncey Billups, after Paul had his best statistical year. Paul individually failed his team, not the other way around, by getting destroyed by Billups.

The Nuggets were the better team, because Billups was on the team and thoroughly destroyed Paul individually - proving he was vastly superior than Paul on both the team and individual levels

Chauncey Billups
23-4-7 on 48%, 1.2 TOpg and 66% 3PT

Billups completely dominated Chris Paul individually
during the 2009 Playoffs, yet Chris Paul rarely receives
criticism for his individually horrendous performance

Chris Paul
17-4-10 on 41%, 4.8 TOpg

Billups badly exposed Chris Paul's defense. He scored way more efficiently and was the way better playmaker, Paul had quadruple the turnovers as Billups. Billups had a 6:1 ast:to ratio to Paul's 2:1

This was after CP3 had his best statistical year, joining Magic and KJ as the only players to average 20-10 on 50% in a season (Magic and KJ did it twice each).

2010 - injured

2011 and 2013
He put up big numbers in 1st round exits with sub-par help. Rod Strickland did the same thing against better teams from 1994-1997, with less help. No big deal, nothing all-time great worthy.

2012 WCSF
Paul = 13-4-9-3 on 37% in 38 mpg and 4.5 TOpg
Bledsoe = 12-3-2-2-1 on 70% in 22 mpg (16 less mpg)
Blake Griffin - 21-8-2-1-2 on 47%

So much for Paul not having help. He wasn't even the 2nd best player on his team or the 2nd best PG in the series.

Chris Paul played horribly individually against
the only 60+ win team (adjusted for 82 games)
he has faced in the playoffs, the 2012 Spurs.
After both Parker (7-11 on 11%) and Paul (6-10 on 23%) played terrible in Game 1
Parker averaged 21-4-7 on 40% for the last 3 games
C. Paul averaged 15-4-9 on 41% in the last 3 games.

Parker clearly outplayed Chris Paul for the series after accounting for the Game 1 anomaly in which both played poorly. CP3 individually failed his team, not the other way around.

2014 1st Round
Steph Curry
23-4-8 on 44%

Chris Paul
17-5-9 on 42%

Paul won only because he had the better supporting cast. Curry clearly outplayed him, despite having less help. Curry had to play more minutes obviously, because his 2nd option Klay Thompson was outscored by Jamal Crawford off the bench in 12 less mpg, and because Griffin was the best Clipper in the series putting up 23-6-4 on 53%, taking the pressure off CP3.

CP3 also averaged 3.8 fouls per game in the series, up from his 2014 season average 2.5. With 5+ fouls in 3 of 7 games and 4+ fouls in 4 of 7 games. His inability to defend without foul trouble contributed to Curry's individually superior performance and Paul's lesser minutes compared to Curry.

For all the excuses we hear about how CP3 "never has any help" and has to "carry the team" the only reason the Clippers made it to the 2nd round is because Paul got bailed out by his teammates, such as Griffin being the best Clipper in that series, after Curry outplayed him individually. Not the other way around. Further undermining the "no-help" excuses and doctrines of CP3 apologists.



Had Paul, in Game 5, not turned the ball over
to Russell, fouled him on the three, and
turned it over on the game-winning attempt,
the Clippers would have been in great
position to advance to the 2014 WCF.
2014 WCSF
CP3 was individually outplayed by Russell Westbrook.

Russell Westbrook
28-6-9 on 49% and 50/57 FTs (89%)

Chris Paul
23-4-12 on 51% and 18/24 FTs (75%)

Westbrook scored way more and way more efficiently as he went to the line more than twice as much, shooting almost 90%. Paul also choked away the eventually deciding Game 5 with his 2 turnovers in the clutch, including on the game winning attempt. He fouled Westbrook on his 3pter, so Russell made 3 FTs to take the lead.

Westbrook outplayed him in the clutch of the eventually deciding game, further cementing that Westbrook outplayed him for the series. Had Paul not done that epic choke job, the Clippers would have been up 3-2 with Game 6 in LA.

Chris Paul apologists have fabricated a myth claiming that he played great defense on Durant, but the truth is that Durant repeatedly had success in the few brief instances Paul matched up with him.

It's worth noting that despite Paul's good statistics, he allowed Westbrook to perform even better due to Paul's bad defense, negating the value of Paul's good statistical performance. Paul individually failed his team, not the other way around, by getting outplayed by OKC's 2nd best player and by choking away the swing Game 5 that went on to decide the series.

2015 WCSF
Griffin led the Clippers to a 1-1 split to steal homecourt without Chris Paul, putting up 30-15-9 on 52% without him in the first 2 games. They did exactly what they were supposed to without Paul. Blake had 27-12-5 on 56% and Deandre had 14-13 with 2 spg 2 bpg in the series. No excuses about help

Game 5
- CP3 had 12 points and 4 assists after losing by 15+
- roughly half of his 22-10 stat line were in blowout situations

Despite great help from Griffin and
Deandre, Paul choked away a 3-1 lead,
the worst of which was shooting 1-6
in the 4th quarter of Game 6 before
a garbage time three, blowing a
13-point 4th quarter lead

Game 6
- CP3 had 1-6 FG in the 4th quarter before a garbage time 3 to make it 2-7 FG
- His failure to step up led to the Clippers blowing a 13-point 4th quarter lead

Game 7
- CP3 had 17 points 3 assists for 3 quarters, losing by 17 at the end of 3
- had 9 points and 7 assists in the 4th when it was already too late, losing by 13
- finished with a deceptive 26-10 stat line

Games 5-6-7
Blake 28-12-3 on 55%
Deandre 12-12 wth 2.3 spg 2.7 bpg
Keep in mind the Rockets best perimeter defender Patrick Beverly did not play in this series, but Paul still couldn't beat an undermanned team - more proof of his severe incompetence as a leader. As if failing to make it to the WCF despite never playing a Finals/Title caliber team despite plenty of help isn't proof enough.

CP3 wasn't even the best player when they won in the 1st round against the Spurs, so we can't hear any excuses about help when he wasn't even the main reason they made it to the 2nd round

2015 1st Rd
Griffin 24-13-7 on 47% FG - 76% FT
Paul 23-5-8 on 51% FG - 97% FT

Griffin only had only 0.5 less APG than CP3 but had +8.5 RPG and +1.4 PPG than CP3. In each of the last 2 playoff series that Chris Paul won, Blake led both teams in scoring and Deandre led both teams in rebounding and blocks, against the 2014 Warriors and 2015 Spurs. Chris Paul was not even the best player in half the playoff series he won.

2016 - injured
But Lillard shot 60% when guarded by Paul's overrated defense

2017 1st Round
In the 2017 1st Round, Chris Paul dealt with the absence of Blake Griffin due to injury after Game 3. Paul deserves some credit for a good statistical series, but at the same time he also deserves criticism for having 0 points in the 4th quarter of Game 7 and shooting 32% for Game 7 as a whole. Chris Paul also played terrible defense, getting lit up by George Hill and Gordon Hayward.

Chris Paul, Game 7 vs Jazz
- 2 points on 1/9 FG, 4 ast to 2 TOs in the 2nd half of Game 7
- 0 points on 0/8 FG, 4 ast to 2 TOs after 11:00 mark of 3rd quarter

The Jazz were not that great when at full health, and weren't at full health for more than half the series. Gobert missed the first 3 games due to injury and Hayward missed the last 3 quarters of Game 4 due to illness. So for the first 4 games out of 7 the Jazz were missing one of their two best players. Not that surprising that CP3 had a big statistical series against a team that was undermanned in most of the games, and won't pass the 2nd round even if fully healthy.

The most important thing we learned from this series is that the Clippers are
- 1-3 in the playoffs when CP3 plays but Griffin does not
- 1-1 in the playoffs when Griffin plays and CP3 does not, while playing against a better team in the Rockets.

And CP3 and Griffin were in their primes during all of those games, so it is not an unfair sample size. So the great help that Blake Griffin has given to the Clippers and his vital role in their success has been grossly undervalued all this time by the Chris Paul apologists who, rather than appreciate how much Paul benefits from great help like Griffin, prefer to use use him as a scapegoat for Paul's individual shortcomings as a Clipper instead.

In summary, Chris Paul had
- a 20+ ppg teammate in all four of his 2nd-round series exits (2008, 2012, 2014, 2015)
- a 22-24 ppg and 11-15 rpg teammate in 3 of his 4 series wins
- had Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan lead all players in both teams in PPG, RPG, BPG in 2 of his 4 series wins (2014 and 2015 1st Rounds)
- while never facing the best teams - no team that beat him made the Finals.

[NinjaSheppard]

Chris Paul really lives rent free in bledredwine's head

[Eskobar13]

Couldn't read it all the way to the end. Amazing story though.

[Colbinii]

We've been over all of this and you know very well Chris Paul's constant struggles that I'm speaking of, last year or not.
Here's a the re-pasted post from the other thread which I believe you saw. Now add this year's disappearance and going 3 for 14 with 3 turnovers, and 5 fouls in a pivotal game with James Harden crushing it to his list.

Starting here before I ride the rest of the roller coaster. Arms, hands and other extremities are to remain inside the cart at all times..

Chris Paul didn't even disappear to the same degree in which James Harden did. Here is James Harden's shot chart for the final 8:30 of the game last night.

Spoiler:

Chris Paul has more playoff series in which he was outplayed by a notable PG (2009 Billups, 2012 Parker, 2014 Curry, 2014 Westbrook) than vice-versa (2008 Parker and 2016 Lillard). How can someone be a top 5 PG of all-time when he is usually outplayed by opposing PGs from his own era in playoff series?

It is worth noting that Chris Paul's teams were much worse than the counterparts in 2009 and 2012. It is also worth noting that 2012 Parker didn't outplay CP3, nor did 2014 Curry or 2014 Westbrook for that matter.

Jumping to 2014 in the GSW series, Curry posted a statline of 23/3.6/8.4, 26 turnovers and 12 steals. Chris Paul on the other-hand posted 17.4/4.7/9 with 25 turnovers and 22 steals. Although Curry had an edge in efficiency by a whopping 4.3 TS%,, Paul was a much better defender than Curry throughout the series. In the clutch time, Steph Curry shot 1-8 in the series, an unimpressive number.

To conclude =Steph Curry had outplayed Chris Paul isn't a statement backed up by results or a collection of statistics.

Bouncing over to the next series for Chris Paul he went up against the prime Oklahoma City Thunder team with 3 stars [2 superstars] while Chris Paul had a young Blake Griffin, a player who has never been a Superstar or top 5 player in the league. This series was extremely close, one of the closest series I have witnessed. The point-differential over the course of the 6 game series was 5 points.

Statistically speaking, there is no way to conclude Russell Westbrook was better than Chris Paul.
Westbrook: 27.8/6.0/8.8 with 11 steals, 25 turnovers on an efficient 61.8 TS%.
Chris Paul: 22.5/3.7/11.8 with 15 steals, 14 turnovers on an efficient 61.1 TS%.

Again, I am curious how you can claim that Chris Paul was outplayed in either of these series if you are taking things at face value and not holding biases against certain players. It is astonishing to me that you can come to these robust conclusions.

2011 and 2013
He put up big numbers in 1st round exits with sub-par help. Rod Strickland did the same thing against better teams from 1994-1997, with less help. No big deal, nothing all-time great worthy.

This isn't true nor fair. You can't just sweep these series under the rug as CP3 played fantastic during them, much better than Rod Strickland. The teams Strickland played against were also not better teams.
Lakers: 57-win, 6.01 SRS
Grizzles: 56-win, 4.32 SRS (Remember Blake Griffin was injured while Memphis had the 2nd best defense in the league at 100.3, so sweeping this under the rug isn't fair, is it?)
Rockets: 58-win, 4.19 SRS
Suns: 59-win, 3.85 SRS (Strickland was not great this series)
Jazz: 55-win, 6.25 SRS (Strickland went 5/16 in a game 5 win or go home game, again much worse than CP3)

I am struggling how you can conclude these teams were better teams. They were comparable teams based on every metric we have for measuring a teams goodness.

Chris Paul played horribly individually against
the only 60+ win team (adjusted for 82 games)
he has faced in the playoffs, the 2012 Spurs.

Is there something special about using 60 wins instead of SRS?
Do you believe wins are a better baraometer for measuring team success than SRS is, which if you didn't know takes into account opponents strength?

RE: Curry and Westbrook in 2014, look above as I covered this in more detail than you did while posting things in an even-keeled manner.

RE 2015 WCSF: Chris Paul was the best player in this series.

2016 - injured
But Lillard shot 60% when guarded by Paul's overrated defense

You are remembering this series incorrectly. Austin Rivers was primarily guarding Lillard.
Looking at how Rivers and CP3 defended shooters in the series...
Rivers:
20-24 ft: 48.4%
24+ ft: 40%
Paul:
20-24 ft: 25.7%
24+ ft: 27.3%

in summary, Chris Paul had
- a 20+ ppg teammate in all four of his 2nd-round series exits (2008, 2012, 2014, 2015)
- a 22-24 ppg and 11-15 rpg teammate in 3 of his 4 series wins
- had Blake Griffin and Deandre Jordan lead all players in both teams in PPG, RPG, BPG in 2 of his 4 series wins (2014 and 2015 1st Rounds)
- while never facing the best teams - no team that beat him made the Finals.

Here is another interesting fact about Chris Paul and the difference in SRS between CP3's team and opponent:
2012 Spurs: +4.46
2013 Grizzles: -2.11 (Griffin injured)
2014 Thunder: -.61 (When Westbrook played the Thunder were playing at a 10-11 SRS level, equivalent to the 1996 Bulls)
2015 Rockets: -2.98
2016: Injured
2017: -.44 (Griffin only played 3 games)

[TroubleS0me]

Its tough CP3 seeing struggle offensively, knowing how he was during his prime & peak

[JordansBulls]

One thing is true, had this game been yesterday it would had been cancelled with the weather in Houston. Damn this city has the worst weather.

[HeartBreakKid]

Chris Paul really did not have a bad game at all. I wouldn't be surprised if in hindsight people will say Steph Curry out played him despite CP3 being way better this game.

[bledredwine]

earlier this game, CP was awesome.

But having him and Harden on the floor is a recipe for pressure choking.

It happens time and time again.

[Basileus777]

Chris Paul really did not have a bad game at all. I wouldn't be surprised if in hindsight people will say Steph Curry out played him despite CP3 being way better this game.

Paul was dreadful for a quarter. Steph was dreadful for a half. Steph's 2nd half was a better performance than Paul's though, so I don't really agree with your assessment.

[HeartBreakKid]

earlier this game, CP was awesome.

But having him and Harden on the floor is a recipe for pressure choking.

It happens time and time again.

it was the opposite...he started off bad and got better as the game went on.

[The High Cyde]

There's no recovering from this

[GSP]

That game 5 is gonna haunt him forever

He's gonna be a rich man's Mavs JKidd going forward

[MartinToVaught]

That contract is looking even worse now than the day it was signed.

[williamwehttam]

I thought CP3 played well until the homestretch, where the Rockets should have been feeding their MVP more often.

[TroubleS0me]

That contract is looking even worse now than the day it was signed.

here we go again...but yes I agree, he struggled in the playoffs this time

[TroubleS0me]

3rd option on a team @ this point of his career

[thekdog34]

He had a very good game tonight. No complaints at all with a 34 year old star from me.

I don't think we'll see prime Paul anymore but he'll still be good IMO

[Colbinii]

earlier this game, CP was awesome.

But having him and Harden on the floor is a recipe for pressure choking.

It happens time and time again.

it was the opposite...he started off bad and got better as the game went on.

Yeah but you actually watched the game while Bledredwine chilled his red wine and watched YouTube videos of Michael Jordan from 1985.