2019 Draft Thread - Tonight, 6/20, 4:00PM PST ESPN.

[Case2012]

Hey guys, been a minute.

Thoughts on draft prospects? Personally I'm hoping Bol Bol slides to us. He was super impressive offensively before he went down with a broken foot.

Tacko Fall looks interesting from a defensive standpoint, and I'm very interested in Cameron Johnson as a Klay Thompson type at the 3.

Who do you like at our spot?

Edit by TSE 6/20:

Okay guys.

Title updated. The draft 'starts' at 4:00, but that might actually be 5:00 if that 'start' time is the hour leadup from ESPN.

The following reporters/insiders will be reporting picks and trades before they're even announced on screen, so if you're a cord cutter or simply don't want to give ESPN your viewership:

https://twitter.com/ShamsCharania
https://twitter.com/wojespn
https://twitter.com/TheSteinLine

I assume also:

https://twitter.com/ChrisBHaynes

Our local reporters:

https://twitter.com/CHold
https://twitter.com/BlazerFreeman
https://twitter.com/jwquick
https://twitter.com/mtokito

Though at least one of those we can use the term reporter on questionably.

If you feel like following along on the NBA's still terribly reworked site a year later:

https://www.nba.com/draft

or

https://www.espn.com/nba/

[The Sebastian Express]

Matisse Thybulle.

[Fitz303]

Cameron Johnson, if he's there, would probably be my pick at the moment. Experienced, shooter, improved defense, can play both forward positions. Would be a seamless fit.

I'm not one to choose someone just because they played for Oregon, but Louis King will probably be there at 25, and he'd be a very intriguing prospect.

Tacko Fall could be an interesting player if we got a 2nd rd pick. I think he'd be more like Boban than Gobert, but could be a good rotation Center right away.

[Wizenheimer]

Portland doesn't need yet another project, whether it's a big, a wing, or a guard. They already have 3; or 5 if you count Layman and Meyers. Enough. And if for some loopy reason they want one, then buy a 2nd round pick and waste it

that 25th pick should be used to leverage some salary reduction

[Fitz303]

Portland doesn't need yet another project, whether it's a big, a wing, or a guard. They already have 3; or 5 if you count Layman and Meyers. Enough. And if for some loopy reason they want one, then buy a 2nd round pick and waste it

that 25th pick should be used to leverage some salary reduction

I'm for that as well, but the team that I have the highest hopes of trading with (Atlanta), isn't looking for draft picks this year. They have 5(!) already, and would likely want a future pick. I could see it moved for an established player, but the 25th pick in a draft that many aren't thrilled with already probably isn't going to net much. I have no idea which way Olshey is going this year. If there's someone there who's ready to contribute (i.e. Cam Johnson... 4 yr UNC kid who's long and can shoot) I think you make that pick and continue to bolster your rotation.

[Wizenheimer]

Portland doesn't need yet another project, whether it's a big, a wing, or a guard. They already have 3; or 5 if you count Layman and Meyers. Enough. And if for some loopy reason they want one, then buy a 2nd round pick and waste it

that 25th pick should be used to leverage some salary reduction

I'm for that as well, but the team that I have the highest hopes of trading with (Atlanta), isn't looking for draft picks this year. They have 5(!) already, and would likely want a future pick. I could see it moved for an established player, but the 25th pick in a draft that many aren't thrilled with already probably isn't going to net much. I have no idea which way Olshey is going this year. If there's someone there who's ready to contribute (i.e. Cam Johnson... 4 yr UNC kid who's long and can shoot) I think you make that pick and continue to bolster your rotation.

Atlanta doesn't have any cap-space. The only team that does is Dallas

* trade the 25th pick for a future first and go into the off-season with an extra future first

* or, package that pick with ET or Meyers and trade for a cheaper player.

* Would Dallas trade Courtney Lee for ET + 25th? That would cut 8M off of Portland's cap, which isn't anything to sneeze at. Would they give Portland a TPE for Meyers and the 25th? That's over 13M off the cap

that 25th pick will have more value before and during the draft then anybody they draft will have in the off-season. Now, I'm assuming there's a ceiling on how much tax JA will be willing to pay next season. Maybe that ceiling is a lot higher than I'm imagining

[JasonStern]

Bol Bol isn't falling to 25.

there are worse options than locking a player in on a cheap rookie scale contract for multiple years, especially if they pan out and can be used to replace a more expensive starter or bench player. plus using the 1st and buying a 2nd round pick would help keep Olshey's "one of the youngest teams" narrative going.

using the 25th for cap space savings really only makes sense if it helps us retain some of the players currently on the roster. and even then, some posters here appear to be wildly overvaluing the 25th pick in a weak draft.

[BlazersBroncos]

Ideally, we could move Evan Turner in a 3 way type deal with Atlanta. Something like:

PDX TRADES - Evan Turner, #25 PDX RECEIVES - #42
ATL TRADES - #42 ATL RECEIVES - Evan Turner, Future R1
TEAM X TRADES - Future R1 TEAM X RECEIVES - #25

Then we use #42 on Luka Samanic F and stash him for a year. Bring him over after Jake Layman's QO year.

I honestly think Evan Turner could fit well in ATL. Great veteran presence, and a secondary ballhandler on a team that really only has Young.

[Fitz303]

Portland doesn't need yet another project, whether it's a big, a wing, or a guard. They already have 3; or 5 if you count Layman and Meyers. Enough. And if for some loopy reason they want one, then buy a 2nd round pick and waste it

that 25th pick should be used to leverage some salary reduction

I'm for that as well, but the team that I have the highest hopes of trading with (Atlanta), isn't looking for draft picks this year. They have 5(!) already, and would likely want a future pick. I could see it moved for an established player, but the 25th pick in a draft that many aren't thrilled with already probably isn't going to net much. I have no idea which way Olshey is going this year. If there's someone there who's ready to contribute (i.e. Cam Johnson... 4 yr UNC kid who's long and can shoot) I think you make that pick and continue to bolster your rotation.

Atlanta doesn't have any cap-space. The only team that does is Dallas

* trade the 25th pick for a future first and go into the off-season with an extra future first

* or, package that pick with ET or Meyers and trade for a cheaper player.

* Would Dallas trade Courtney Lee for ET + 25th? That would cut 8M off of Portland's cap, which isn't anything to sneeze at. Would they give Portland a TPE for Meyers and the 25th? That's over 13M off the cap

that 25th pick will have more value before and during the draft then anybody they draft will have in the off-season. Now, I'm assuming there's a ceiling on how much tax JA will be willing to pay next season. Maybe that ceiling is a lot higher than I'm imagining

Any trade would be agreed upon on draft night, and completed on the 1st. Dallas isn't going to give up their cap space. They have hopes of signing someone like Kemba Walker this offseason. Atlanta is going to have a TON of cap space, and likely no major FAs to sign with it. They'd be the team most likely to take on a year of salary for future assets.

I think you undersell certain players coming into the league and their ability to contribute right away. Players like Johnson, who is 23 years old, may not have the ceiling of Simons, but may already have the ability to contribute better than Jake Layman at his likely 3-4 million salary next season. There is something to be said for having solid rotation players on rookie contracts.

[Wizenheimer]

I think you undersell certain players coming into the league and their ability to contribute right away. Players like Johnson, who is 23 years old, may not have the ceiling of Simons, but may already have the ability to contribute better than Jake Layman at his likely 3-4 million salary next season. There is something to be said for having solid rotation players on rookie contracts.

Layman, Stauskas, Simons, Trent, Skal, Swanigan, Baldwin...how much are guys like that helping in the playoffs? How many are "solid rotation players" right now? None of them are and there's no guarantee that any of those guys will be better next season, at least not better enough to matriculate to that solid rotation role

I get the idea of cheap end of bench guys on rookie contracts. But they aren't as cheap as they used to be. The 25th pick will cost around 2M next season and escalate rapidly in cost. It will be about 3M/year over the 4 year rookie scale, with the 4th season being well over 4M and maybe closer to 5M than 4M

meanwhile, a vet minimum will be about 1.6-1.7M in team guarantee and cap-impact over the next 3 years, and you're much more certain to know what you're getting

I'm not going to get in a twist if Portland uses the pick to add another rookie. I just don't believe that it will help Portland over the next couple of seasons, which is what's left of Dame and CJ's contracts

[BlazersBroncos]

Ya, the idea that a 25th pick will immediately contribute more than Layman did this season is pretty wishful thinking.

[Fitz303]

I think you undersell certain players coming into the league and their ability to contribute right away. Players like Johnson, who is 23 years old, may not have the ceiling of Simons, but may already have the ability to contribute better than Jake Layman at his likely 3-4 million salary next season. There is something to be said for having solid rotation players on rookie contracts.

Layman, Stauskas, Simons, Trent, Skal, Swanigan, Baldwin...how much are guys like that helping in the playoffs? How many are "solid rotation players" right now? None of them are and there's no guarantee that any of those guys will be better next season, at least not better enough to matriculate to that solid rotation role

I get the idea of cheap end of bench guys on rookie contracts. But they aren't as cheap as they used to be. The 25th pick will cost around 2M next season and escalate rapidly in cost. It will be about 3M/year over the 4 year rookie scale, with the 4th season being well over 4M and maybe closer to 5M than 4M

meanwhile, a vet minimum will be about 1.6-1.7M in team guarantee and cap-impact over the next 3 years, and you're much more certain to know what you're getting

I'm not going to get in a twist if Portland uses the pick to add another rookie. I just don't believe that it will help Portland over the next couple of seasons, which is what's left of Dame and CJ's contracts

The 25th pick this year gets 1.7 Million. I'd say the odds of getting a player who is ready to contribute right away with that pick is about the same as signing a useful player off the scrap heap with that dollar amount. I'll take the chance with the young guy over another Nik Stauskas.

As for the first guys you named, Layman probably should be getting some minutes at this point, the way Aminu has been playing.. Simons was drafted as a project (not advocating another player like him). I don't know what their thinking with Trent is right now. Skal and Baldwin were not guys that they drafted. Swanigan was a bust.

I'm not married to the idea of keeping the pick. I'm all for moving it for cap space, if it allows us to keep Hood easier. However, I wouldn't trade it for just a future pick, if you think there are rotation players there.

Ya, the idea that a 25th pick will immediately contribute more than Layman did this season is pretty wishful thinking.

In just the last 3 years:
2018
26th Pick - Landry Shamet
2017
22nd Pick - Jarrett Allen
23rd Pick - OG Anunoby
27th pick - Kyle Kuzma
29th Pick - Derrick White
30th Pick - Josh Hart
2016
27th pick - Paskal Siakam
29th Pick - Dejounte Murray

I don't think it's all that wishful thinking. That's just guys within a few picks of the Blazers current spot. If you draft well, you can get guys who are ready to contribute within a year or so. Outside of Kuzma and Hart, all of those guys have played significant minutes in the playoffs either this year or last (Anunoby and Murray last year. Out this year with injuries)

[Wizenheimer]

The 25th pick this year gets 1.7 Million.

that's just the scale. 1st round picks always get the allowed 20% bump over scale. That's why Simons had a scale of 1.53M but he got a salary of 1.84M.

There is a special procedure in place to phase-in a 45% increase to the rookie salary scales for the 2017-18 through 2019-20 seasons (15% per year over three years). There is a "baseline" scale for 2017-18 that does not include the 15% increase used for the actual 2017-18 rookie scale. For 2018-19 they first apply the percentage change in the salary cap from 2017-18 (as described above) to the 2017-18 baseline scale to create the 2018-19 baseline scale, and then they increase all resulting amounts by 30% to create the actual rookie scale. For 2019-20 they repeat the process, starting with the baseline scale for 2018-19, applying the cap percentage increase or decrease to create the 2019-20 baseline scale, and then applying a 45% increase to create the 2019-20 rookie scale.

http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q47

the 'current' scale for the 25th pick is $1,468,400. The cap is going up 8% so the new baseline is 1.568M. A 45% bump puts the new scale 2.3M. And a 20% max salary bump would put it up to 2.76M. That seems high but I remember reading that the 3rd year of the rookie scale increase was really going to spike the salaries.

IIRC, vet minimum contracts are paid based upon years but the team only pays the scale of a 2 year vet and that's the number that goes on the cap. The balance over that amount is paid by the league. So if that rookie scale above is correct, a rookie could cost 1 million more than a vet. And in Portland's situation that could add 2-3M more in luxury tax

I'd say the odds of getting a player who is ready to contribute right away with that pick is about the same as signing a useful player off the scrap heap with that dollar amount. I'll take the chance with the young guy over another Nik Stauskas.

I disagree with that starting with the notion that signing Stauskas was simply a stupid move destined to fail. Connaughton was and is a better. Stauskas had never been the player Olshey hyped when he was signed. Some of the players who played for a vet minimum this year include:

Dante Cunningham
Reggie Bullock
Jeff Green
Amir Johnson
JaVale McGee
Gerald Green
Andrew Bogut
Devin Harris
Vince Carter
Jamal Crawford
Tyson Chandler
Wayne Ellington
Derrick Rose
Omri Casspi
Quincy Pondexter
Jonas Jerebko
Greg Monroe
Nerlens Noel
Ian Clark
T.J. McConnell
Jahlil Okafor
Austin Rivers

as I said, you know what you're getting with vets and what role they could fill.

[DusterBuster]

Read on Twitter

If he's available with a late 1st, why not swing big?

[Wizenheimer]

yeah, I saw those numbers on Fall....unreal

I just looked at 3 different mock drafts and the only one that listed him had him going to the Spurs at #49. Investing a first in him might be too big an investment. Could buy a 2nd though

he sure looks like the kind of dinosaur the league has evolved away from. On the other hand, Philly found Boban useful

[red_power]

Bald spots on his head make me really wondering how old he really is

[red_power]

Anyway I hope this topic won't be very active this year, because blazers badly need to turn Meyers and Turner into a useful players to compete against title contenders, and a 1st round is one of very few assets Olshey has to offer.

[No-Man]

Easily Grant Williams if he is there, no brainer

[No-Man]

Boban is way more skilled than Tacko

[Masterfully]

Grant Williams looks solid. He’s undersized and a weak rebounder though. My personal fave is Daniel Gafford. But anybody at 25 is going to have issues keeping them from going higher.

I’m also up for taking a chance on a young wing like Horton-Tucker or Keldon Johnson or Louis King.