I'll put test in spoiler so you can ignore this if you are not interested in reading
Spoiler:
My goal here is to push the "jump" season back a year, and instead look for incremental improvements and setting up cap room for 2020 for what is likely to be a decent FA class. Right now it doesn’t look like a good FA year…but let’s not forget that a HUGE load of FAs are available this season, and while many teams have money, there’s clearly not enough money to go around for that many players. If even a few "big name" FAs move teams (Walker, KD, Thompson, Kwahi, Bulter, Harris, Middleton, Brogdon, Russell, etc) then that’s going to eat up a huge chunk of the league’s available cap space. There are going to be a lot of NBA-quality players available on the secondary market, and those guys aren’t going to want to sign long-term deals at lower rates. Just like in 2018, I imagine there will be more than a handful of guys who sign 1-year deals and look for a potential payday in 2020, when the FA pool isn’t stacked with several Franchise-level players to gobble up the majority of the available FA dollars.
My 2019 Magic off-season will then consist with maintaining the status quo, nabbing some cheap help on the secondary market, and taking my risks on late draft picks.
First up, I’m re-signing both Ross and Vucevic. I look at 2020 and see Mozgov and Fournier’s likely PO opt-out as freeing up nearly $34 million, so I attempt to get Ross & Vucevic on board for around that amount total. It will likely be a little higher, but I don’t think by much. Ross is currently making $10.5M, but as a firm bench-player, he likely won’t get starter-money. I’m going to peg bringing him back on a 3-yr, $42M deal ($14M per year). I think it might be possible to get him for less, but I’m being conservative here. I’d consider a 4th year that was either a Team Option or Non-Guaranteed money. Next, I’m giving Vucevic a 4-year, $90M deal ($24M, $23M, $22M, $21M) with the final year being a Player Option. That totals $38M added to the cap sheet between the two. Yes, this puts the Magic into the luxury tax. With Mozgov’s dead contract that’s just gonna happen. The DeVos family can afford it.
Again, looking to the 2020 off-season, the Magic would only have at $100M on the books (before cap-holds). That’s ignoring if Fournier opts out (down to $83M), and if Fultz hasn’t shown anything they can pass on his QO and his $12M comes off, too (down to $71M); and that’s with the 2020 salary cap expected to be around $118M ($47M in cap room) and luxury tax around $143M. So, Ross and Vucevic’s new deals won’t hinder the Magic too much next off-season. Augustin would have a cap-hold, but obviously at 32 he would be someone worth letting go of to make cap room for a big name player (or, hopefully, he signs a "final" long-term deal for cheap to stay).
But enough about 2020. Back to 2019’s off-season.
Obviously, I’m going to exercise the option on Iwundu for next year. Birch I’d like to keep around, but if he gets a decent offer somewhere you let him go and sign some other 3rd string Center on a min deal. There will be lots of those out there. They may not be as good as Birch, but Bamba will be getting the backup role anyways, if only to verify whether he’s worth long-term investment. The list has names like Koufos, Chandler, McGee, Noah, Monroe, etc. Same goes for a backup PG. I’d look for someone better than Briscoe, and guys like Beverly, McConnell, Lin, Ish Smith, or even Rondo should be fine since the goal is for Fultz to play as much as possible. Keep in mind, both the FA signing for PG and Cn here know there’s a realistic chance that they could end up playing real minutes, due to the uncertainty of Fultz/Bamba, so it’s not just a typical 3rd string gig. Keep Briscoe on a 2-way deal in case of injuries.
My 2019 Magic off-season will then consist with maintaining the status quo, nabbing some cheap help on the secondary market, and taking my risks on late draft picks.
First up, I’m re-signing both Ross and Vucevic. I look at 2020 and see Mozgov and Fournier’s likely PO opt-out as freeing up nearly $34 million, so I attempt to get Ross & Vucevic on board for around that amount total. It will likely be a little higher, but I don’t think by much. Ross is currently making $10.5M, but as a firm bench-player, he likely won’t get starter-money. I’m going to peg bringing him back on a 3-yr, $42M deal ($14M per year). I think it might be possible to get him for less, but I’m being conservative here. I’d consider a 4th year that was either a Team Option or Non-Guaranteed money. Next, I’m giving Vucevic a 4-year, $90M deal ($24M, $23M, $22M, $21M) with the final year being a Player Option. That totals $38M added to the cap sheet between the two. Yes, this puts the Magic into the luxury tax. With Mozgov’s dead contract that’s just gonna happen. The DeVos family can afford it.
Again, looking to the 2020 off-season, the Magic would only have at $100M on the books (before cap-holds). That’s ignoring if Fournier opts out (down to $83M), and if Fultz hasn’t shown anything they can pass on his QO and his $12M comes off, too (down to $71M); and that’s with the 2020 salary cap expected to be around $118M ($47M in cap room) and luxury tax around $143M. So, Ross and Vucevic’s new deals won’t hinder the Magic too much next off-season. Augustin would have a cap-hold, but obviously at 32 he would be someone worth letting go of to make cap room for a big name player (or, hopefully, he signs a "final" long-term deal for cheap to stay).
But enough about 2020. Back to 2019’s off-season.
Obviously, I’m going to exercise the option on Iwundu for next year. Birch I’d like to keep around, but if he gets a decent offer somewhere you let him go and sign some other 3rd string Center on a min deal. There will be lots of those out there. They may not be as good as Birch, but Bamba will be getting the backup role anyways, if only to verify whether he’s worth long-term investment. The list has names like Koufos, Chandler, McGee, Noah, Monroe, etc. Same goes for a backup PG. I’d look for someone better than Briscoe, and guys like Beverly, McConnell, Lin, Ish Smith, or even Rondo should be fine since the goal is for Fultz to play as much as possible. Keep in mind, both the FA signing for PG and Cn here know there’s a realistic chance that they could end up playing real minutes, due to the uncertainty of Fultz/Bamba, so it’s not just a typical 3rd string gig. Keep Briscoe on a 2-way deal in case of injuries.