The Consiglieri wrote:
I think the last paragraph summarizes where we just see things differently. To me your contending, or rebuilding. You never, ever, want to be caught in the middle.
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The Beal situation is simple. We have no means by which to build around him. Others have addressed this more effectively than I have, but to sum up my perspective on it: we couldn't win squat with young, hyper athletic Beal and Wall, what are we going to accomplish with older/old Beal, and broken down never gonna be the same Wall eating up franchise player money?
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You mention that we can do things. Yes, but the things we can do are tinkering. We will not attract prime free agents because we can't pay them.
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If you want to watch Beal play all NBA third team basketball for a 20 something win to me for the foreseeable future that's your prerogative. I just cannot understand why that would ever trump hope for competing.
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He owes us nothing after giving us 10 years of excellent play, and should go barring some Zion-like transformative franchise lottery victory).
New lotto rules disagree. You can do just fine being caught in the middle. The odds are no longer prohibitively stacked against you for trying hard but having an off year.
Wall is signed here for large dollars. There’s no point giving up on him. I submit we don’t know what may happen when he comes back from rehab.
We do know the Wall we last had was playing on bone spurs and fighting thru pain playing way too many minutes and taking his rest not on the bench or in rehab but on the defensive side of the ball. It affected his offseason conditioning since it hurt to stand, so his primary cardio was riding a bike. Too many fans gave up on him as a lazy player. Not a player who was killing himself to stay on the court while he should have rested. Now he has no choice.
Injury. Fatherhood. His mothers cancer. New regime with better oversight and accountability. Enforced rest and true rehab with medical oversight from a competent front office. Load management. The Wall you have given up on has every chance to come back a renewed player.
And now we ditch GMEG who seemed to have a philosophy that prevented the team from landing competent back-ups. It seems to me Ernie built teams that always leaned too heavily on starters, knowing if they were out we could tank for lotto picks and have an injury excuse. Look at the parade of hasbeens and hopeless cases Ernie had at back up PG. Whether incompetence or intentional we have gone out of our way to land players who could not play. Look at how many minutes we have always played our stars. Arenas, Wall, Beal. Under Ernie we have always lead the league in both starters minutes and games lost to injury. You don’t recall everyone bitching we were playing Arenas/Beal/Wall etc too many minutes when they were coming back from stress injuries?
Yes we were mediocre with Beal/Wall as our starters. However our starting five was commonly among the most efficient in the league in +/- We just had nothing behind them. Ever.
You suggest we are doomed to field 20 win teams. Ok then we will be in the lotto.
But recognize no team wins unless they draft a franchise changing superstar as their best player. The lotto is the only chance for teams to land the Zion-like transformative franchise player. It’s a cold hard fact. Free agents won’t do it. And nobody trades those players. In order to win a championship you have to draft the right player in the right year. Then build around them. Luck is the best chance you’ve got.
The exceptions underline the rule. Miami won when free agent LeBJ joined Wade (the centerpiece of the earlier Miami championship contender) with Bosh. They came at a discount to play with each other. The Cavs won because free agent LeBJ didn’t like the bad press from that Decision and decided to return to the team that drafted him despite crappy ownership.
Durant joined GSW because they had their superstar already drafted and in place and Westbrook is hard to deal with.
Ok. If you want to follow the Celtics model for a single championship you can stockpile picks and swap them for disgruntled stars poached from smaller markets and poorly managed teams. But aside from one ring that’s not really been working for them. And even there as cited earlier they had Pierce in place to build around.
The Larry Brown Pistons and maybe next years Clippers are the only teams who have built contenders by chemistry and free agency. And in the case of the Pistons it took a meltdown and chemistry issues in a team of top mega talent players (who drafted their alpha dog guard, and landed Shaq because Hollywood).
Basically our only hope of a championship is the same as almost every other team: that Zion-like transformative franchise player (ZLTFP). Your feeling is we can only land him by swapping Beal for at most one or two extra bites at that apple. Maybe then we get better luck with a few % points better odds. And if not then we add talented players. Ok.
My feeling is: if we get lucky we get lucky. But. Trading Beal subtracts one skilled player who helps any young talent we do land to actually reach that potential. He is a good mentor. Plays hard on defense. Is coachable. Improving. Has learned to kick his skittles habit and fix his nutrition and conditioning. He passes the ball and rewards you with assists when you pass to him.
Swapping that out for a few young players who may develop. Or a couple more chances at that ZLTFP. Doesn’t seem like the best road to contention. In an era where mediocre teams are just about as likely as the bottom feeders to get the top ZLTFP in any draft.
ALSO! Insurance is paying Wall. Our owners have more freedom to exceed the lux tax if they want. We are not as strapped for money or anxious about the cap as other teams.
ALSO scuttlebutt is Powell-Jobs bought into the Wiz as a gift to boyfriend Adrian Fenty. Lux tax payments are wiped away by a few hours interest accumulated in her portfolio. [EDIT Hmm, reports suggest they may no longer be dating. Oh well. Still we seemed to have no problem bearing the lux tax payments over the past couple years. Her 20% stake may have been a factor.].
ALSO we have no idea yet how legalized sports gambling may affect the overall salary cap if the NBA can get a piece of this with inteactive TV and online avenues etc on prospect bets. We do know Ted has been pushing for it and prepared to take advantage of the change in law for a long time. The recent retooling of the phone booth Capital One Center was with an eye towards this and he booted out the Greene Turtle to make room for his own in-arena sports book. There's extra money coming if the NBA and ownership is smart. This necessitates that player's get a percentage stake, effectively to match player salaries with team profits.
The cap may raise enough that todays supermax looks like tomorrow's relative bargain. But our team has revenue streams that give us unique positioning if we choose to be buyers in the market. Player's agents know this.
We have new management coming in. Different outlook. We don’t need to hang onto the same doom and gloom mindset we have had as Wizards fans. You don’t know. You don’t know what the future holds. Let the incoming GM assess the squad and take his time getting a rolling start and see what we can assemble. If we re sign Brad he becomes an asset whose destiny we control. And given his upward trend if we decide we should swap him we can probably get a better deal than a few chancey rolls of the dice.
So okay yeah: No we are not winning a championship in the next couple years. But. We have put up with decades of hopeless suckitude. We can be patient for a couple years of hopeful suckitude. With smarter people piloting the ship. And possibly. Possibly. Players who are already on the roster shutting the mouths of naysayers and doom addicts who expect nothing but misery as payment for their fandom.
