Whole Truth wrote:psman2 wrote:Whole Truth wrote:
I'm not too sure this team is a lock for bottom 5 without Conley.
What if Morant comes in & balls out the gate?, possible. What if Jaren takes a leap in his game working with Garnett?, possible. I already know some Memphis fans still don't realize what they got in the Gasol trade with both Jonas & Delon as some have suggested not retain him. Your team also has young quality depth, other young players that are still improving.
I'm not as sure as you but I like the new lotto system where there's still a chance. The good news in this is most of the talent is in the top 6 where the pick is protected putting your team in a good position to pick quality or convey where it drops off for a win win situation.
I would be thrilled if Ja and JJJ are so good out of the gate that we win a lot more than expected, that would be a good outcome for me even if we convey the pick. I just don’t see a rookie PG leading a team without a top 50 player to anything but a bottom 5 record. We can strategically rest vets and play with the rotations later in the year some to ensure a bad enough record.
I could see us losing Wright if someone comes strong in FA too if another team wants to gamble he can be their starter, I think it is 50/50 he is back at this point. Under 10 we keep him likely over that I think we let him walk.
Considering Jackson was expected to be the rawest of the big men prospects at 19 this past season, his production should have been somewhat unexpected!. The only thing I see potentially holding Ja back from jumping into the league with his skillset is his slim frame & strength but my overall point was you never know. Educated guessing, is not exact science. What is not a guess, is Jonas play was not an anomaly for Memphis. It's his game extended in mins allowed & he's still improving defensively so there's room for him to improve as well.
Some facts about Jonas advanced defensive #'s that Memphis fans might not know.
Jonas has played 11,844 mins against starters & 457 against reserves over 7 seasons, where DeRozan, Lowry & most players get a benefit of playing against weaker apposing benches for stretches. Most of those 457 mins came this past season which elevated his numbers. Under the guise of demotion.
He didn't finish games either in favor of defensive alternatives/specialist under a defensive coach who didn't value his offense. If he started games off poorly he was not afforded opportunity to finish, if DeRozan was struggling as a high usage scorer, poor defender & Jonas was playing well individually, all of his minutes were ties to playing with DeRozan, there was no separation for Jonas to play with a defensive perimeter upgrade. Players can have hot & cold stretches, Jonas never afforded the opportunity to play out of a cold stretch as Raptors were contenders out the gate. Part reason was systematic, to minimize these two players defensive flaws & Jonas has some, Casey had Jonas sitting back in the post to give up the mid range jumper. This was in part to protect DeRozan giving up blow by's, guarding in space, failing to close out & to have Jonas in good rebounding position. Jonas allowing that mid range jumper, was by design.
Both Noah & Gasol were former DPOY's, here there defensive ratings with Memphis compared with Jonas.
Gasol 106 Drtg
Noah 105 Drtg
Jonas 105 Drtg
How is it with a depleted Memphis roster they remained top 5 in defense with Jonas starting?. How is it, Raptors manage to be top 5 in defense in the East with Jonas starting?. Offense & Rebounding, are a part of playing defense, Jonas efficiency, rebounding offsets a lot of his defensive short comings. Problem is under Casey they never took advantage of his efficiency. He was there to cleanup the high usage lower efficiency of DeRozan & Lowry, set picks as a garbage man big, which eliminated a good portion of his strength as a player.
In short, if resigned, Jonas will be good for Memphis. If Jaren, Ja excel with some solid contribution from Memphis quality depth I think they will string together wins. I know it was the East but Jonas, DeRozan & Lowry with holes at SF/PF were a 50 win core for 6 seasons. Jaren, is better than anything Raptors had at PF up till Pascals emergence this year. They had a revolving door at SF till Kawhi this year. Bradley may not be as good a scorer as Derozan but under high usage he could replicate what DeRozan brought to the table while being considerably better defensively. Lowry has declined statistically over the years but he impacts the game mainly with his intangibles. His pnr with Jonas was the Raptors most effective, efficient offense. Ja comes in with his athleticism & passing coming off Jonas screening ability if he has any consistency from range out the gate best believe I think this team will be better than expected. Put versatile defenders who can seamlessly switch, shoot the 3 ball around a Jonas/JA pnr screening action & yeah, I can envision unexpected success.
Noah is a former DPOY, Gasol is a former DPOY, Jonas is labelled a poor defender. Here's their Drtg with Memphis
Gasol 106 Drtg
Noah 105 Drtg
Jonas 105 Drtg
To lend to my point Raptors drafted a defensive pnr big man in Poeltl who posted impressive defensive numbers with last years Raptors bench unit.
He had a 125 Drtg playing with the starting unit Jonas was ties to. Look at Gasol against the Bucks, they're not unlike the Cavs roster. He like Jonas can be stretched out but he's slower footed
JV's defensive problem is that he can't guard the PnR. That was why he got killed in the playoffs. In the regular season (especially towards the end when games aren't quite as important for some teams), his defense is fine. He defends the paint and sometimes gets put in the PnR and we pay for it. But he then helps make up for it on the offensive end. We'll have to see but there is a chance he opts out or we move him for an additional asset. I think a decent team to compare next year's team to is this year's Atlanta team. Trae's vision was great for them like we hope Ja's will be for us. They had a couple decent vets in Bazemore and Dedmon. Collins was great on offense and contributed to winning on a similar level to what JJJ hopefully will (though I expect JJJ to be a bit better due to his defense). Prince and Heurter are good young players. It will depend on what we get back for Conley, but I think our team likely finishes about like the Hawks did which was 5th worst record. I say we end up around 5-7 and are in a similar position to convey as we were this year.
