Dat2U wrote:DCZards wrote:If you keep Beal and manage to squeeze out enough wins to make the playoffs, your young ballers like Brown and Bryant will be developing and learning how to win...and you’ll still likely end up with a top 20 draft pick next season and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.
If you keep Beal and don’t make the playoffs, you’re a lottery team with decent odds of coming away with a top 5 pick in the draft and Wall returning full-time for the 2020-21.
If a true godfather deal comes along for Beal, you take it and run. But that deal would have to include a young player with all-star potential and a few high draft picks.
Those are all win-win situations for the Zards, imo.nate33 wrote:Doc really nailed it with this great post:doclinkin wrote:Basically our only hope of a championship is the same as almost every other team: that Zion-like transformative franchise player (ZLTFP). Your feeling is we can only land him by swapping Beal for at most one or two extra bites at that apple. Maybe then we get better luck with a few % points better odds. And if not then we add talented players. Ok.
My feeling is: if we get lucky we get lucky. But. Trading Beal subtracts one skilled player who helps any young talent we do land to actually reach that potential. He is a good mentor. Plays hard on defense. Is coachable. Improving. Has learned to kick his skittles habit and fix his nutrition and conditioning. He passes the ball and rewards you with assists when you pass to him.
Swapping that out for a few young players who may develop. Or a couple more chances at that ZLTFP. Doesn’t seem like the best road to contention. In an era where mediocre teams are just about as likely as the bottom feeders to get the top ZLTFP in any draft.
If we keep Beal, in three years or so, we will have Beal plus an (X)% chance and another superstar. If we trade Beal, we will have no Beal and an (X+Y)% chance at a superstar. If Y was a really big number, I'd consider it. But it isn't. With the new lottery odds, Y is a fairly small number. I'd rather keep Beal. And if that X percent chance pans out, we will have Beal AND a superstar, which is the foundation for a championship team.
These are fine points if time weren't a factor.
Even a good looking rookie doesn't necessarily change the fortunes of this franchise immediately. I keep saying it but I think people are underestimating the bareness of the cupboard surrounding Mr. Beal.
Outside of Beal were basically a newly born expansion franchise except we have no cap room, no expansion draft from which to add talent and incredibly expensive remnants of a buffoon who led a decade & half **** show.
The optimism here is encouraging yet laughable. I appreciate it and I'm disgusted by it at the same time.
The real irony, is that you prove our point. Outside of Beal we only have young players. And Beal is 25. With Beal, we are likely to still be a lottery team - look at the Pelicans with Anthony Davis and the Lakers with LBJ. If Beal was 28 or 29 fine trade him. At 25, it's easier to keep him and build around him, than trading him and building around...well building around nothing. By all accounts Beal is only getting better. What's the big push to trade him this offseason? Especially in such a weak draft.
How many wins does this team get next year with Beal vs. without Beal? And when will we be competitive again after trading Beal? Just because the team is in a tough position, doesn't mean we should make a rash decision especially when it makes thins so pronouncedly worse. Adding Lonzo Ball or Kyle Kuzma or Ingram or Mitchell Robinson or RJ Barrett, makes a perennial bottom feeder team. And then we'll just hope that we can find a player that's as good as Bradley is now.