My top 5 is pretty set and I don't see much changing unless Kawhi beats the Bucks vastly outplaying Giannis and makes the Finals look like the 2015 Finals.
1. Giannis
2. Jokic
3. Harden
4. PG13
5. Kawhi
Everyone has major negatives outside of Jokic, Giannis, PG13, and Harden to me. KD got hurt in the playoffs, Curry has gone through the moments in tough situations, Embiid was terrible offensively against Toronto, Kawhi missed a quarter of the season resting and is probably the freshest player in the playoffs (not to mention he's blunting his offensive impact so his numbers look better than how he affects the team), Dame looked horrible against Golden State and was the 2nd best player on his team against Denver, and maybe there's someone else I'm missing that deserves a mention but I can't think of anyone.
HeartBreakKid wrote:I''m not sure if on/off is the best indicator - but I've stumbled into this conundrum before while assessing KG (and Duncan).Doctor MJ wrote:
KG going from '04 to '05 saw his On court +/- go way down and his Off go way up. By all +/- impact studies he was considerably less effective in '05 than '04.
To me, Kevin Garnett's 3 "main years" when he's really in his peak is 2003, 2004 and 2005.
You are right in that 2005 his impact stats are not as good as 2004. However, in 2003, his impact stats are the best in the NBA - that is quintessential high +/- KG and I still feel like people are scared to say Kevin Garnett was better than Tim Duncan in 2003. I ask myself all the time - do I really have Duncan as the best player in 03 because I truly think this or because I am just following everyone else?
I mean, Tim Duncan won a championship with a non star studded team while KG was bumped in the first round, however - Duncan's "bad" team wasn't actually bad relative to KG's, it was superior and much better coached (some how this gets lost in the shuffle, the Spurs were just a more efficient machine than pretty much any version of the Timberwolves even 04).
Even in the playoffs Kevin Garnett was good in 2003 - if we want to cut it down to just first round performances so the sample sizes are even, KG in 03 (27/16/5, 51%/60%, 5 FTA, 3 TOV) still looks a bit better looking than Duncan in 03 ( 19/16/5, 52%/69%, 9 FTA, 3.7 TOV, 3.5 BLK) or KG in 04 for that matter (26/15/7, 45%/71%, 8.5 FTA, 4.5 tov).
But perhaps the greater point is this - what are really the two big Kevin Garnett years? The two years where he is most accomplished from a narrative stand point? 2004 (his MVP season) and 2008 (his championship season).
What are the only two years Kevin Garnett ever won POY? 2004 and 2008 (and really, in 2008 he was hardly the only candidate). Kevin Garnett was a better player in Minnesota than he was in Boston, and the level of competition wasn't really worse in the 00s than what he faced in 08 yet he still won POY.
I'm late but I feel like people forget those +/- numbers are estimates. We don't truly know anyone's actual on court ratings and on/off prior to 2008.
Now into your actual point, I'm sorry it's crazy. KG having a better first round than Duncan is irrelevant when he averaged 27/15/5 the rest of the way. That whole postseason Duncan only had a negative +/- twice even though they went 16-8. It's legitimately a postseason performance only 5 players can say they've ever come close to. KG isn't one of those 5. To take KG over him that year you'd basically have to ignore the fact that Duncan played 3 series consecutively better than any KG ever played, for what reason? Because he was #1 in RAPM (which is technically just an estimated number, not a solid number as we don't have real possession numbers), and Duncan was 4th? Is that a big enough gap to justify what everyone's eyes saw?
As far as competition goes who was KG's competition in 08? Chris Paul, a 0 time POY and Kobe, another 0 time POY in a season that's not his best according to anyone?
Now who is his competition in 03? Duncan, a top 5 player all time in his best season. T-Mac, during a season just as good as Wade and Kobe's best. Shaq in his last MDE level season (where he outplayed KG head to head in the playoffs). Kobe in what many would call his best season (where he also outplayed KG head to head in the playoffs). Dirk in a year he had his highest est. on/court rating and by far his highest est. on/off that's arguably his best year prior to 09.
03 along with 90 and 09 are probably the years with the toughest POY competition. KG not winning is a testament to the other players in the league not to some narrative driving Duncan over him. Like really the idea that his competition in 08 was anywhere near close to 2003? Crazy.
Tim Duncan is an even greater example.
The years Tim Duncan won a championship as the 'guy' were 1999, 2003, 2005 and 2007.
The years he won the retro player of the year were 1999, 2003, 2005, 2007.
Isn't that a bit too much of a coincidence? Was Tim Duncan really better in 1999 than he was in 2002? That's incredibly hard for me to believe (just glancing, he was better in 02 than in 99) - and his competition Shaq in 1999 was worse than he was in 2002? (offensively sure, but defense and games played - nope, seems like 99 Shaq was better than 02 Shaq).
This is an absurd opinion to hold. 99 is Shaq's worst prime defensive year. He lead LA to a 23rd ranked defense and they underachieved all year, even if IMO he was the best player in basketball. The defense argument vs 02 ain't holding up to scrutiny though, he was also a more complete offensive player in 02 even if he was banged up all year.
That's equally as hard for me to believe.
The narratives around Duncan, Shaq and Garnett getting POYs are highly tied to the years they won big accolades, the correlation is as high as you could possibly get actually.
Ever think they won big accolades because they were better? Sometimes a cigar is a cigar.
I'd take Shaq in 99 over Duncan but they went head to head that year and Duncan averaged 29 ppg on 60 TS% (which is absurd in that league environment) while Shaq played great but not too special. Duncan then followed that up with one of the 20 best Finals performances ever against NY. The argument for him over Shaq is as simple as his superior postseason performance coupled with Shaq's clear coasting the regular season actually negatively affecting his team.
As far as 02 goes both players were better first off. Shaq in 99 wasn't the defender or passer he was in 02, Duncan improved by leaps and bounds and regularly played like he did in the 99 playoffs, if not a little better. The big difference here in favor of Duncan is health and him vastly outplaying Shaq head to head. Unfortunately Shaq's season didn't end there and after that he averaged 30/14/2 in an iconic series against the Kings putting up 41/17 and 35/13 facing elimination and he followed that up with a top 15ish Finals performance ever and arguably the most dominant finals performance ever. Like he averaged 36/13/3 on 63 TS% in the last 7 games of the playoffs.
But we are also talking about 76 Erving going against 76 Kareem - 76 Kareem had a much better year than he did in 75. However, Kareem did not even make the playoffs that year (but famously won MVP despite not making the post season).
Julius Erving being superior to Kareem Abdul-Jabar doesn't sound that accurate to me, it sounds like that's just the year he's "supposed" to win it.
Whether or not Kareem had a better year is irrelevant when Dr. J also had a way better year in 76.
Julius Erving in 75 won the MVP in the RS - but was upset in the post season, so yes, I would also argue that his season might not have been as good as his 76 season. However, his competition in 75 was iwaaaay nferior - Rick Barry is really not that great of a player, and that was a year where everyone was giving their votes to Bob McAdoo (he placed second). Julius Erving is not an inferior player to Rick Barry, much less Bob McAdoo.
The highest placing ABA player that year in 1975? Artis Gilmore. Who won the ABA Championship that year? The Kentucky Colonels.
Dr.J was in his peak for 1975, he very much was the same player as he was in 76 - his sample size over his MVP RS kind of points to this. I hate to use the "no one at the time argument thought this" - but, well, I don't think anyone in 1975 thought Artis Gilmore was better than Dr.J.
Dr.J had the best RS of his career in 1975, and had already been an ABA champion the year right before so it's not like he was an RS darling - everyone already knew his play was not empy, it transfers over into post season play and not only did he not win RPOY, he placed 4th place behind Rick Barry, Bob McAdoo and Artis Gilmore. I would argue it is very hard that one of those guys was better than Dr.J that year, but all three? Almost zero chance.
Look at 75 and 76 Dr. J. His scoring, efficiency, assist percentage, steal percentage,and usage all went up. His turnover percentage went down. His rebounding percentage was the same. How the **** is that his best regular season? If anyone is focusing on accolades and narratives it seems like you're focusing on his co-MVP (because unlike his superior 74 and 76 seasons he couldn't even win MVP straight out) and ignoring he was better in literally every way in 76. You're looking at team wins and talking about narratives being a problem at the same time.
In the playoffs he went from 27/10/5 on 50 TS% while getting upset in what's one of his worst series if not his worst series to 35/13/5/2/2 on 57 TS% in what's one of the most dominant back to back series performances ever to upset a Nuggets team that was 2nd in SRS the next season in the NBA. Dr. J wasn't just better in 76 he was miles better.
As far as Artis, Bob, and Rick Barry go:
Artis outplayed him in the 1 game tie breaker, averaged 23 ppg while anchoring the #1 defense, won a ring, and didn't have a terrible series to get upset. You play to win the game, postseason performance is above all else.
Bob McAdoo on the other hand was amazing. He averaged 35 ppg on 57 TS% in the regular season (aka the same as Dr. J in the 76 postseason) and 37 ppg on 53 TS% against a top 2 frontcourt ever, the best team in the league, and the best defense in the league (a -6.4 defense). What exactly is Dr. J's argument over him? He was better in other seasons outside of 75?
And Barry is simple. The best shooter in the league, and a strong defender averaged 31/6/6 in the regular season leading a supporting cast with one other above average player (who was a rookie) to the #2 offense. He then took that weak team to the Finals and averaged 30/4/5 to sweep a Wizards team that would've went down as one of the best teams of the decade outside of the Bucks and Lakers.
You play to win the game and they weren't so far from him in the regular season that their amazing postseasons should've elevate them over Dr. J playing like ass to get upset.
Fair enough, though it's worth mentioning Walton didn't get POY. Hey, Kareem did pretty well for himself - he only won like 7 of the POYs, but I'm just saying there's a chance he might have lost one or 2 of them to some guys with sexier stories.
I have no attachment to the 70s, Kareem or Dr.J - I just was reading the RPOY threads in the 70s a month or 2 ago and simply was not all that convinced of the arguments made in some threads. Not saying every post has to be an ElGee book, but a lot of them were kind of just write offs due to lack of success coded in prettier words.
I think your main issue here is you're taking POY to be the best player, not the person with the best year. In a single year there's 1 goal, win a ring. The narrative matters there mainly because the "narrative" is how and why one player won while the other didn't. Duncan not winning in 02 seems like an issue with him winning in 99 until you remember he ended Shaq's season in 99 but not in 02 so Shaq was able to turn in 2 monster performances to take the top spot. I think of it like a race, and if you drop out early you can keep that first spot, but you can also be surpassed.
Let's say Kawhi eliminates the Bucks and somehow beats the Warriors, should he not be POY because Giannis was better up until losing? I'd say Kawhi should be POY for turning in a performance in the last 2 rounds good enough to drag the Raps to a finals win.