2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[PlayerUp]

Lol the only thing that Reddish has proven is that he’s a straight bum who played like a sissy in college.

Sometimes it can take a year for players to figure it out.

[Axolotl]

After supermodels and pizza we need new analaogies for Cam:

Cameron Reddish: he has the water, he has the hops, he has the barley - but he doesn't have the yeast.

[Andi Obst]

I don't follow college or international basketball enough to be an expert on this, but from what I've seen I'm definitely interested in trading down. Maybe Boston really falls in love with a prospect at 7? They have 3 first rounders and probably don't want to give 3 or more roster spots to rookies.

[rtblues]

REDDISH: I get the usage aspect, but explain to me how playing on a team with Barrett and Zion diminishes your performances?
In theory, he should have had more open looks than if he were the #1 option somewhere getting double-teamed.
Instead, despite the luxury of having two guys who warrant double-teams before you, he has a terrible shooting year
with absolute CRAP percentages from three and TWO.

In the days of advanced analytics, why are so many choosing to dismiss them in the case of Reddish?

I pass on him, and if he succeeds with another team, so be it, I am wrong, but I don't see it. I heard a lot about him
so I started watching him, and waiting, and waiting, but he just never really turned it on.

Unless you are ranking him based on the one half of basketball when Zion blew the shoe out, where he played well, finally.
That's a bit too tiny of a sample size for me. NOT a believer, hard pass. Empty gym shooting, yeah, I am pretty good at that too.
So ignore the recent video. Or, watch it, and see how he has a very bad habit of bringing the ball down before he shoots it, giving
him a low release point, translation, that crap's getting smashed in the NBA. Just NO...

[rtblues]

After supermodels and pizza we need new analaogies for Cam:

Cameron Reddish: he has the water, he has the hops, he has the barley - but he doesn't have the yeast.

I'll keep it much shorter, Cam Wiggins...

[Red Larrivee]

Hunter redshirted. Virginia made him. Your “freshman” numbers are from his sophomore season. I wonder what Reddish would put up next year on Virginia. Would he be a sixth man?

The numbers need context. Just like Paul George who put up pedestrian numbers for a last place Fresno State mid-major. So to trash Reddish’s numbers without acknowledging his different situation isn’t reasonable.

They don’t excuse his terrible efficiency, but they say not many other players were put in that position for comparison. Put Reddish on Fresno State for two years and let’s see his numbers.

I like how your hypothetical is based on Reddish playing for another team, while ignoring the obvious fact that he chose to play for Duke. It's not like he was forced to play there. Either way, your evaluation can't be built on hypotheticals. Otherwise, you could excuse the production of every prospect for no particular reason.

You're making a decent case why Reddish might've improved if he went back to Duke to play against college competition as a sophomore. You're not making a good case why he'll suddenly play a lot better against tougher competition in the NBA.

[JimmyJammer]

You can apply a higher minimum chance to players who actually showed more against the same competition. It's why I don't get why Reddish is considered high upside, but others are considered low ceiling.

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Reddish is still living off equity he built through four years of high school basketball, which many people are having a hard time to let go of. Just imagine what it will be like in two years when young players will be coming straight out of high school.

So why isn't there a bigger cry for Little or Grimes then? Don't they have HS equity?

Or even RJ Barrett, I don't know anyone saying he should go #1 or #2? Or that the Bulls must trade up for him. #1 Prospect! Where is the HS Equity?

Same could be said of Bol, but there's still a few crazies on this board that want him. But just like the Reddish supporters, it's about the physical traits and skills that people like. No one is saying, well he was good in HS, therefore....

Let me tell you this, there are many prospects who would not go through the year that Reddish went through at Duke and still be mentioned as being in the top 10 of an upcoming draft, regardless if it is a weak draft or not. So, he is indeed living off his high school hype and his measurables. I have nothing against that, though. I am really rooting for the kid to succeed because he is a very good and humble kid.

[cjbulls]

REDDISH: I get the usage aspect, but explain to me how playing on a team with Barrett and Zion diminishes your performances?
In theory, he should have had more open looks than if he were the #1 option somewhere getting double-teamed.
Instead, despite the luxury of having two guys who warrant double-teams before you, he has a terrible shooting year
with absolute CRAP percentages from three and TWO.

In the days of advanced analytics, why are so many choosing to dismiss them in the case of Reddish?

I pass on him, and if he succeeds with another team, so be it, I am wrong, but I don't see it. I heard a lot about him
so I started watching him, and waiting, and waiting, but he just never really turned it on.

Unless you are ranking him based on the one half of basketball when Zion blew the shoe out, where he played well, finally.
That's a bit too tiny of a sample size for me. NOT a believer, hard pass. Empty gym shooting, yeah, I am pretty good at that too.
So ignore the recent video. Or, watch it, and see how he has a very bad habit of bringing the ball down before he shoots it, giving
him a low release point, translation, that crap's getting smashed in the NBA. Just NO...

Why did Bosh’s numbers fall when playing with LeBron and Wade?

That last point was certainly an issue for Love, who thrived in the low post for Minnesota, both in terms of scoring and turning rebounds into nifty outlet passes, only to be stationed at the three-point line for much of his time on the court with James. When James and Love teamed up on the Cavs in 2014, a former teammate on the Heat, Chris Bosh, offered some advice on what Love could expect.

“It’s a lot more difficult taking a step back, because you’re used to doing something a certain way and getting looks a certain way,” Bosh, a star in Toronto who took a back seat to James and Dwyane Wade in Miami, said at the time to Bleacher Report. “It’s going to be very difficult for [Love]. Even if I was in his corner and I was able to tell him what to expect and what to do, it still doesn’t make any difference. You still have to go through things, you still have to figure out things on your own. It’s extremely difficult and extremely frustrating. He’s going to have to deal with that.”

Why did Kevin Loves numbers fall when playing with LeBron and Kyrie?

“You have to be resilient. I had a lot of hard nights. There were dark times,” Love said.

[GimmeDat]

Reddish's raw numbers might've standed to go down playing alongside RJ/Zion, but his efficiency stood to go up because the quality of looks he was getting was so much better. So why was he abysmally inefficient?

And if he was better off without them, how come his numbers were worse with one or both out?

Love and Bosh as comparisons don't make sense. They were sensational in their roles offensively for their teams.

[R3AL1TY]

K Love and Bosh numbers suffered in certain aspects when playing with LeBron but their numbers definitely wern't abysmal or very inefficient like Cam's.

[cjbulls]

Reddish's raw numbers might've standed to go down playing alongside RJ/Zion, but his efficiency stood to go up because the quality of looks he was getting was so much better. So why was he abysmally inefficient?

And if he was better off without them, how come his numbers were worse with one or both out?

Love and Bosh as comparisons don't make sense. They were sensational in their roles offensively for their teams.

Love and Bosh’s efficiency went down when they switched teams: care to explain?

I’m not sure what you mean by sensational in their roles? Both Bosh and Love were perceived as not pulling their weight and subject to trade on their new teams. Both were sensational on their old teams, just like Cam was on his.

Read the quotes from Bosh. It’s a difficult change. Reddish went from point guard in HS/AAU to the fourth ball handling option. And he made the change as an 18 year old kid off on his own for the first time. The other two at least had maturity, past success and money.

[Red Larrivee]

So then why did his production still suck in the 6 games without Zion?

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[GimmeDat]

Reddish's raw numbers might've standed to go down playing alongside RJ/Zion, but his efficiency stood to go up because the quality of looks he was getting was so much better. So why was he abysmally inefficient?

And if he was better off without them, how come his numbers were worse with one or both out?

Love and Bosh as comparisons don't make sense. They were sensational in their roles offensively for their teams.

Love and Bosh’s efficiency went down when they switched teams: care to explain?

I’m not sure what you mean by sensational in their roles? Both Bosh and Love were perceived as not pulling their weight and subject to trade on their new teams. Both were sensational on their old teams, just like Cam was on his.

Read the quotes from Bosh. It’s a difficult change. Reddish went from point guard in HS/AAU to the fourth ball handling option. And he made the change as an 18 year old kid off on his own for the first time. The other two at least had maturity, past success and money.

I would accredit that to the fact that their roles required them to take more jump-shots as they were playing off of others more. It also didn't help that when Bosh first came to Miami, he hadn't stretched his shot out to 3 point range yet. There is always a level of sacrifice to changing roles, you have to give up more on-ball wrinkles to your arsenal, I would be the first to concede that.

But the thing with Reddish.. he took 16 attempts per 40. His usage was barely less than RJ or Zion - he didn't really have to compromise that much. And if the argument is that he had foresaken the 'PG/initiator' role, then why did he look really bad whenever he had the ball in his hands, with a poor handle and 3.6 TO's to 2.6 assists per 40? These are things that shouldn't have been an issue given his role.

I don't want to write off Cam, I had massive hopes for him out of HS and thought the same way about his skill-set. I do hold hope for him, but if I try to delve in to that hope, it's hard to find any objective reasoning to explain how he can go from the season he just had at Duke to the player people thought he was in HS. It seems like a poor bet.

[DanTown8587]

If you take Goga, you have to trade Wendell for #8 immediately.

Why is that? Wendell is worth way more than that. He's also the superior prospect of the 2.

If you draft Goga and think Wendell is better then why make that pick at all.

[cjbulls]

Reddish's raw numbers might've standed to go down playing alongside RJ/Zion, but his efficiency stood to go up because the quality of looks he was getting was so much better. So why was he abysmally inefficient?

And if he was better off without them, how come his numbers were worse with one or both out?

Love and Bosh as comparisons don't make sense. They were sensational in their roles offensively for their teams.

Love and Bosh’s efficiency went down when they switched teams: care to explain?

I’m not sure what you mean by sensational in their roles? Both Bosh and Love were perceived as not pulling their weight and subject to trade on their new teams. Both were sensational on their old teams, just like Cam was on his.

Read the quotes from Bosh. It’s a difficult change. Reddish went from point guard in HS/AAU to the fourth ball handling option. And he made the change as an 18 year old kid off on his own for the first time. The other two at least had maturity, past success and money.

I would accredit that to the fact that their roles required them to take more jump-shots as they were playing off of others more. It also didn't help that when Bosh first came to Miami, he hadn't stretched his shot out to 3 point range yet. There is always a level of sacrifice to changing roles, you have to give up more on-ball wrinkles to your arsenal, I would be the first to concede that.

But the thing with Reddish.. he took 16 attempts per 40. His usage was barely less than RJ or Zion - he didn't really have to compromise that much. And if the argument is that he had foresaken the 'PG/initiator' role, then why did he look really bad whenever he had the ball in his hands, with a poor handle and 3.6 TO's to 2.6 assists per 40? These are things that shouldn't have been an issue given his role.

I don't want to write off Cam, I had massive hopes for him out of HS and thought the same way about his skill-set. I do hold hope for him, but if I try to delve in to that hope, it's hard to find any objective reasoning to explain how he can go from the season he just had at Duke to the player people thought he was in HS. It seems like a poor bet.

Or you can look at it the other way: other than this one 35 game sample, he has been a good player. Most players would just go back to school or transfer. It’s just rare for someone to struggle but then still be talented enough to go so high that they enter the draft.

It’s still types of shots that’s matter. You said it yourself. Most of his shots came off-ball. And it could be a confidence thing as the year goes on and he feels more and more pressure. It’s why I think it would help for him to go somewhere like the Cavs where he can have more free reign.

He obviously struggled. But in many ways he can improve, like his handle and drive. He’s going to have trainers and coaches and everyone else studying his tape and working to improve that. He is said to have the most “natural talent” in the draft. He just needs the right situation to try to unlock it.

[JohnnyTapwater]

Reddish is a virgo.

Sorry. I'm a virgo, and I know how we tend to think. He's a mutable sign which means he'll adapt to his surroundings for the greater good. That's a big reason why he fell back. I know he's probably harder on himself than anybody could be. He's a perfectionist that is probably working day and night to get his shot making more consistent. I believe in his work ethic just by knowing his zodiac sign.

I know, I know.

[GimmeDat]

If you take Goga, you have to trade Wendell for #8 immediately.

Why is that? Wendell is worth way more than that. He's also the superior prospect of the 2.

If you draft Goga and think Wendell is better then why make that pick at all.

Because you think he's the best player available regardless of need?

I said myself, I wouldn't take him because he's too much of a double up, and I don't think he's head and shoulders the BPA. But if you do think he's the clear BPA, that shouldn't dissuade the Bulls from taking him, if they've explored all trade up/down/out options and nothing is fair value.

[DanTown8587]

It’s easy to ignore the hypotheticals when they don’t suit your purpose. Hunter would have had abysmal stats with that type of usage at Duke as a freshman. Just keep that in mind before you dismiss Reddish.

You mean the same Hunter who at Virginia was sixth man of the year and all freshman ACC and had numbers of 30 points / 13 rebounds per 100 possessions with a PER of 23.5 and TS% of .584% on a usage of 25.7% compared to Reddish as a freshman having 25 points / 7 rebounds per 100 with a PER of 13.6 on a .499 TS% with a usage of 25.3%.

It’s easy to ignore facts and only create wild, unprovable hypothesis to try and make an argument but that doesn’t make you right.

I’m not a GM, but I don’t bank on the hope of bad players becoming good in the Pros. There are only a handful of players that were outright bad in college (post creation of one and done) and they were all bigs who either changed role or changed body.

The problem with Reddish is let’s say your scouting belief of Reddish having good skills is true; now I have to figure out why he was so atrociously bad if he really is this talented.

Reddish is all hype that exists on Instagram posts and message boards.

Hunter redshirted. Virginia made him. Your “freshman” numbers are from his sophomore season. I wonder what Reddish would put up next year on Virginia. Would he be a sixth man?

The numbers need context. Just like Paul George who put up pedestrian numbers for a last place Fresno State mid-major. So to trash Reddish’s numbers without acknowledging his different situation isn’t reasonable.

They don’t excuse his terrible efficiency, but they say not many other players were put in that position for comparison. Put Reddish on Fresno State for two years and let’s see his numbers.

You keep making this “it’s so tough to be a third fiddle” argument like he’s Bosh or Love or someone playing with LeBron but in both those cases, those players were still good and efficient, they just put up lesser numbers with less usage.

Your basic argument is Reddish needs to be the guy to be good or else he’s a negative player out there and that is a completely different argument than those two. It also means how likely do you think Reddish is to be better than say Lavine in terms of production or team value?

There are plenty of talented and athletic players who simply end up in and out of the league or they toil around the league for years as the bane of a fan bases ire. You don’t draft that guy 7.

And in Paul George’s case, he didn’t have a great handle or jump shot but he was supremely athletic and flashed ability to create. He had to drastically improve in the league; that’s not the Reddish argument you’re making.

[DanTown8587]

Why is that? Wendell is worth way more than that. He's also the superior prospect of the 2.

If you draft Goga and think Wendell is better then why make that pick at all.

Because you think he's the best player available regardless of need?

I said myself, I wouldn't take him because he's too much of a double up, and I don't think he's head and shoulders the BPA. But if you do think he's the clear BPA, that shouldn't dissuade the Bulls from taking him, if they've explored all trade up/down/out options and nothing is fair value.

He’s not the best player available if you think he’s a backup. The idea of BPA isn’t to take the BPA in terms of talent, it’s in terms of impact to your team.

[cjbulls]

For all the “numbers, numbers, numbers” people. Here is analysis from Kevin Pelton, the ESPN stats analyst. He also has Reddish ranked #5 overall.

Nobody in this year's draft inspires stronger takes than Reddish, who had a disappointing freshman campaign as the third option on a Blue Devils team featuring three surefire lottery picks. Despite the talent around him, Reddish's true shooting percentage (.499) was only slightly better than Horton-Tucker's. He made worse than 40 percent of his 2-point attempts and barely 33 percent from 3-point range.

The inclusion of stats from the Nike EYBL (collected by ESPN Stats & Information's Neil Johnson) boosts Reddish in my projections. Among 2018-19 freshmen in the top 100, only Oregon's Bol Bol rated better than Reddish during 2017 EYBL play between their junior and senior years of high school. Reddish wasn't all that much more efficient against EYBL competition, but he was responsible for a larger share of his team's offense and more effective as a distributor -- even after considering the change in level of play. That suggests some of Reddish's skills might have been hidden because of Duke's depth.

Ultimately, Reddish's NBA potential might hinge on his ability to consistently make 3-pointers. That hasn't happened at any level of competition. However, Reddish's accuracy at the free throw line (77 percent as a freshman) suggests untapped potential as a shooter. I've found that free throw shooting in college is slightly more predictive of NBA 3-point accuracy than 3-point percentage in college.