nomorezorro wrote:i think it's worth interrogating what a "high upside" prospect actually looks like, because i have a feeling people's perceptions aren't necessarily aligned with reality on this front
other than giannis and i guess maybe paul george, i can't think of any stars that started out as raw, toolsy guys who didn't show a ton of on-court impact before getting drafted. i really don't think picking a player like that is a higher-upside play than hoping a "low ceiling" dude can go from good to great
You're on the right track.
It's the same conversation as Tyrus Thomas vs. LaMarcus Aldridge. Thomas, the raw, but more talented player, was perceived by the Bulls as having higher upside. Aldridge, the more skilled player, but not as talented player, was seen as low upside. Thomas is out of the league for a variety of reasons related to intangibles, decision making and feel for the game. Aldridge made 7 all-star appearances in 13 seasons.
There's more layers in that comparison, but we always make the mistake of attributing uber athletes or players with "tools" to having huge upside. Talent is what's unlocked when a player develops the intangibles: Feel, Basketball IQ, Decision-Making, Consistency, etc.
You look at Nikola Jokic; why is he so good? He's a slow 7'0 center, who looks like he barely works out. He must be low upside. Yet, he has elite BBIQ, became one of the best passing centers ever and became an elite overall decision maker. His passing effectively drives an entire offense in a league where guards and wings dominate. Jokic' feel for the game is insane and he simply knows how to outsmart his opponents despite lacking natural advantages.
On the opposite end of the spectrum, you look at Giannis, a player who came into the league with all the natural tools: Elite athlete, big-time wingspan, long stride player, very quick for his size, you name it. But why is he so good? He got better at making high volume decisions, his feel for the game improved significantly, he plays smarter and he developed consistency. That unlocked his natural tools that now supplement his game.
The problem with a player like Reddish is that he's bad at the things that unlock talent. It's going to take a lot of work just to get him to a baseline of respectability. Hell, he may never reach that threshold. Tools are simply what you have to work with and they're easily displayed for show. You can watch someone like Gerald Green dunk and shoot all day in a gym; he'll look like a future superstar. But, if he doesn't know how to apply them, then it means nothing.
well that settles that
