2019 NBA Finals Thread, Part 1 | Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors

[California Gold]

As per usual....

....fans of the Raptors saying their team can win = INSUFFERABLY COCKY

....fans of every other team saying their team will whomp the Raps = JUST BEING REASONABLE

I'm not really saying that at all. I think the Warriors are the lone exception in the entire league given how they've pretty much smacked around everyone for the last 4 years outside of Cleveland who almost needed a miracle themselves. If this almost any other team, I'd agree. If the Roles were reversed, I'd be saying the same thing. A team earns its reputation over several years -- especially one that might be the greatest team ever assembled (with or without Durant).

If raps can pull off the upset, it would be that much sweeter. Warriors are really the GOAT ever assembled.

Agreed. Although you know what some of the naysayers will come back with lol (Durant wasn't playing for X games!). It would be cool to see the Raptors pull it off.

[John Murdoch]

Assuming KD doesnt play , Nurse should sick Kawhi on Draymond to nuetralize him pushing pace . Steph is goin to get his but you cant allow Dray to have lines like 15/10/10 like he was putting up in the portland series . Gasol will likely be only played in short stints with kerr using his death lineup .

Lowry on Steph
DG or Norm on Klay
Kawhi on Dray
Siakm on Iggy
Gasol on Bogut or Looney

[RaptorHooter]

Assuming KD doesnt play , Nurse should sick Kawhi on Draymond to nuetralize him pushing pace . Steph is goin to get his but you cant allow Dray to have lines like 15/10/10 like he was putting up in the portland series . Gasol will likely be only played in short stints with kerr using his death lineup .

Lowry on Steph
DG or Norm on Klay
Kawhi on Dray
Siakm on Iggy
Gasol on Bogut or Looney

Lowry covers big guys, not fast guys.

[Duffman100]

I can't believe I'm actually rooting for the Raptors...

Let it embrace you. It'll feel strange at first and then so, so good.

[jason bourne]

I posted this on another thread, but just wanted to post it here for posterity. It goes to show the planning and plotting going on before the Finals or maybe it was just two old friends getting together for lunch. Would Pops want revenge on Kawhi? Would he know stuff about him that others don't? Maybe he wanted to show Steve a new wine (I added another link below to show how food and wine may have built the Spurs championships.)?



Steve Kerr wouldn't miss an opportunity to get a free meal. He saw Pops was in the City and knows he is a huge food and wine connoisseur. I'm sure they talked about Kawhi, Nick Nurse, and the Raptors among other things.

They're the NORTH, but we the WEST.

Read on Twitter

http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/26524600/secret-team-dinners-built-spurs-dynasty

[John Murdoch]

Assuming KD doesnt play , Nurse should sick Kawhi on Draymond to nuetralize him pushing pace . Steph is goin to get his but you cant allow Dray to have lines like 15/10/10 like he was putting up in the portland series . Gasol will likely be only played in short stints with kerr using his death lineup .

Lowry on Steph
DG or Norm on Klay
Kawhi on Dray
Siakm on Iggy
Gasol on Bogut or Looney

Lowry covers big guys, not fast guys.

Its not like steph is blowing past guys , 3pt spammer thru and thru

[RaptorHooter]

Assuming KD doesnt play , Nurse should sick Kawhi on Draymond to nuetralize him pushing pace . Steph is goin to get his but you cant allow Dray to have lines like 15/10/10 like he was putting up in the portland series . Gasol will likely be only played in short stints with kerr using his death lineup .

Lowry on Steph
DG or Norm on Klay
Kawhi on Dray
Siakm on Iggy
Gasol on Bogut or Looney

Lowry covers big guys, not fast guys.

Its not like steph is blowing past guys , 3pt spammer thru and thru

It's the endless running and fighting through screens that Lowry will want to avoid.

[Triples333]

This series is going to be extremely close, and Toronto absolutely has the defense to slow down the shorthanded Warriors. It's a close enough series that it will come down to whether the role players are hitting their shots or not. Which we saw was the difference for Toronto over Milwaukee; Van Vleet's 3pt resurrection from dumpster to 'best in history' was enough to swing the series. Had he shot even 50% from 3 in the final 4 games, it's Bucks in 6.

Does Green make more than one 3 over the final 4 games in this scenario?

Green was being removed from the rotation due to his non performance over the course of the playoffs. His continued failure in limited minutes definitely pailes in comparison to the monumental outburst from Van Vleet (who again went from terrible all year to the most efficient scorer history for 3 games).

Obviously that will never be repeated but it's missing the underlying point. The role players that do step up and have huge games will likely be enough to swing a series that is this close (gambling odds be damned). I will still lean Golden State simply because they're the smarter, battle tested team, and they have a 100% Curry+Green.

[everdiso]

just a what if scenario here, but if durant doesn't come back, and the raptors win the series, that means the core of steph + klay + green would be 1-2 in the finals w/o KD and the one win was a cavs team w/o irving + love. does it hurt their legacy? especially if kd leaves?

this post gave me an idea....why don't we go back and look at the history of the warriors pre-KD?

2013-14: 51 wins, lost 1st round

Curry (25): 36.5mpg, 28.3usg%, .225ws48, 7.4bpm --- PLYF: 42.3mpg, 23.1usg%, .131ws48, 3.7bpm
Dray (23): 21.9mpg, 14.8usg%, .119ws48, 2.8bpm ---- PLYF: 32.6mpg, 16.4usg%, .109ws48, 6.8bpm
Klay (23): 35.4mpg, 22.6usg%, .112ws48, 0.7bpm ---- PLYF: 36.7mpg, 20.5usg%, .045ws48, 0.6bpm
Iggy (30): 32.4mpg, 13.3usg%, .135ws48, 3.0bpm ---- PLYF: 35.4mpg, 16.7usg%, .049ws48, 1.3bpm
Lee (30): 33.2mpg, 24.3usg%, .160ws48, 0.8bpm ----- PLYF: 31.0mpg, 20.1usg%, .081ws48, 1.3bpm

Barnes (21): 28.3mpg, 16.8usg%, .070ws48, -1.4bpm - PLYF: 22.3mpg, 16.4usg%, .033ws48, -1.5bpm
O'Neal (35): 20.1mpg, 17.8usg%, .146ws48, -1.3bpm -- PLYF: 12.0mpg, 20.0usg%, .118ws48, -1.8bpm
Speights (26): 12.4mpg, 25.4usg%, .103ws48, -5.2bpm - PLYF: 9.7mpg, 27.1usg%, .146ws48, 1.5bpm

So the band was still young, but the band was all together at this point. Steph was already a super elite player, Klay was Klay, and Iggy was Iggy. Dray wasn't yet Dray during the regular season, but turned into Dray come playoffs. Lee was mediocre, the bench stunk. Unfortunately, this young team choked hard in the playoffs, led by Curry. Just poor performance across the board, except for the aforementioned Dray, the only guy to step up and he stepped up huge. This was also before they went all-in on their smallball lineup.


2014-15: 67wins, won Championship

Curry (26): 32.7mpg, 28.9usg%, .288ws48, 9.9bpm -------- PLYF: 39.3mpg, 31.0usg%, .228ws48, 8.7bpm
Dray (24): 31.5mpg, 17.2usg%, .163ws48, 5.0bpm --------- PLYF: 37.3mpg, 19.2usg%, .161ws48, 6.0bpm
Klay (24): 31.9mpg, 27.6usg%, .172ws48, 2.7bpm ---------- PLYF: 36.2mpg, 23.3usg%, .118ws48, 1.5bpm
Iggy (31): 26.9mpg, 13.3usg%, .117ws48, 1.6bpm ---------- PLYF: 30.2mpg, 15.1usg%, .170ws48, 4.1bpm
Barnes (22): 28.3mpg, 14.9usg%, .139ws48, 1.1bpm ------ PLYF: 32.4mpg, 15.6usg%, .115w48, 1.6bpm

Bogut (30): 23.6mpg, 13.2usg%, .159ws48, 4.1bpm -------- PLYF: 23.2mpg, 10.9usg%, .153ws48, 4.6bpm
Livingston (28): 18.8mpg, 15.9usg%, .107ws48, -1.7bpm -- PLYF: 17.9mpg, 13.3usg%, .118ws48, -0.5bpm
Barbosa (32): 14.9mpg, 20.5usg%, .137ws48, -0.8bpm ----- PLYF: 10.9mpg, 21.5usg%, .113ws48, -2.1bpm

Curry got even better. And now Dray joined him as a full time elite player. Klay actually had maybe his best year impact wise. And Iggy stepped up into Playoffs Iggy for the first time. Bogut being healthy again ended up being a bigtime impact add as well. And this time there was no choking come playoffs time. well, Klay choked a bit (though really his regular season may have been the career outlier here), but Iggy stepped up so large it didn;'t matter. Barnes actually looked like a useful player at this point too, though he was riding coattails.


2015-16: 73 wins, lost Finals

Curry (27): 34.2mpg, 32.6usg%, .318ws48, 12.5bpm ---------- PLYF: 34.1mpg, 32.1usg%, .152ws48, 6.4bpm
Dray (25): 34.7mpg, 18.8usg%, .190ws48, 5.8bpm ------------- PLYF: 38.2mpg, 18.9usg%, .171ws48, 7.1bpm
Klay (25): 33.3mpg, 26.3usg%, .144ws48, 0.7bpm ------------- PLYF: 35.4mpg, 28.0usg%, .142ws48, 2.8bpm
Iggy (32): 26.6mpg, 12.1usg%, .122ws48, 1.6bpm ------------- PLYF: 32.0mpg, 12.1usg%, .133ws48, 3.8bpm
Barnes (23): 30.9mpg, 15.9usg%, .116ws48, -0.2bpm --------- PLYF: 31.0mpg, 14.5usg%, .047ws48, -1.2bpm

Bogut (31): 20.7mpg, 11.4usg%, .180ws48, 4.5bpm ------------ PLYF: 16.6mpg, 12.3usg%, .194ws48, 7.4bpm
Livingston (29): 19.5mpg, 14.2usg%, .145ws48m, -0.5bpm --- PLYF: 21.4mpg, 18.2usg%, .108ws48, -0.7bpm
Barbosa (33): 15.9mpg, 18.1usg%, .091ws48, -2.1bpm -------- PLYF: 11.0mpg, 18.7usg%, .172ws48, 2.1bpm


Now this is pretty interesting. Curry went supernova this year, putting one of the elite impact seasons of all time. He was THE reason they won 73 games. Just amazing. But, looking at the numbers, I can't get past the fact that for the 2nd time in 3yrs, he kinda choked in the playoffs. He was still really damn good, but nowhere near what he was in the regular season. Dray and Iggy stepped up as usual in the playoffs again, and even Klay joined the party this time, but Steph just wasn't the same Steph in the playoffs, and that's probably whey they didn't win. In fact, the year they won is the only year where Stef maintained his super-elite regular season performance right through the playoffs.

Now we look at this year's team, without KD, and ask ourselves which of these three Warriors squads this year's team most closely resembles:

2018-19: 57 wins, in Finals

Curry (30): 33.8mpg, 30.4usg%, .199ws48, 6.3bpm -------- PLYF: 37.2mpg, 28.7usg%, .195ws48, 5.3bpm
Dray (28): 31.3mpg, 13.1usg%, .100ws48, 2.0bpm --------- PLYF: 37.7mpg, 17.5usg%, .139ws48, 5.7bpm
Klay (28): 34.0mpg, 25.6usg%, .095ws48, -0.8bpm --------- PLYF: 39.4mpg, 21.8usg%, .042ws48, -0.9bpm
Iggy (35): 23.2mpg, 10.4usg%, .129ws48, 1.9bpm ---------- PLYF: 29.4mpg, 13.6usg%, .152ws48. 5.1bpm
Cousins (28): 25.7mpg, 28.1usg%, .151ws48, 3.6bpm ------ PLYF: 12.5mpg, 34.3usg%, -.138ws48, -4.6bpm

Looney (22): 18.5mpg, 12.8usg%, .195ws48, 3.7bpm ------- PLYF: 20.5mpg, 11.6usg%, .209ws48, 4.8bpm
Livingston (33): 15.1mpg, 12.0usg%, .101ws48, -1.5bpm --- PLYF: 14.0mpg, 11.9usg%, .097ws48, -1.5bpm
McKinnie (26): 13.9mpg, 13.9usg%, .100ws48, -2.5bpm ---- PLYF: 11.1mpg, 11.9usg%, .087ws48, -3.5bpm

So I think everyone is prepared to concede that the warriors' regular season performance has to be taken with large doses of salt, as they weren't keeping their foot on the gas all year.

And indeed, we can see that clearly here - once again, Playoffs Dray and Playoffs Iggy have stepped up as always despite their poor regular seasons. Klay hasn't stepped up, though, and he is starting to look like he's gone from "good but overrated" to "kinda bad and still overrated".

What's interesting to me here again is Mr.Curry - once again he had a great regular season, but maybe not quite as high impact as the pre-KD years. The one year they won without KD, Curry was elite of elite in the playoffs - and this year he's not quite there. Of course, what makes it more interesting is that he sure as hell looked like he was there last series. So the question is can Curry go supernova against the raps like he did against the Blazers? I'd say he probably needs to, because there's less support than usual. Dray and Iggy are great as always, but Klay doesn't seem to be prime Klay anymore, and now of course with the injuries the depth beyond that looks spottier than usual as well.

If I had to say which previous Playoffs Warriors the current team most resembles based on these numbers, I'd have to say the '16 Warriors that lost in the finals - Curry looks very good but maybe not super-elite, Dray and Iggy both look great, the 5th starter is a big question mark and they have one big off the bench consistently having a good impact....they seem very similar player by player with one exception - Klay seems to be a noticably lesser player now than he was then.

Interesting take.

Not sure your read is accurate on Klay, Curry though. Stats are stats, but they both have improved the non scoring sides of their games significantly since 2015. Curry and Klay are both much better on defense, rebounding, setting screens. Klay had key defensive stops and blocks on all the warriors comebacks, often feeding Greenn as he went nova on pushing the ball late game, carried team early in 2 key games, when offense was sputtering, Curry 0 pts.

I dont think stats always properly measure impact on a game (see prev post on Klay shutting down Lilliard, but not being much in scoring side). Granted Lilliard was hurt, but he played very consistent winning ball, albiet inconsistent on shooting. That said, in crunch time both he and Curry, and Green hit their shots to come back and win. Iggy even was hurt at the end of game 4, and the core 3 got it done. Saying they pkayed poorly because of relative stat drops for small samples is over reaching IMHO. Interesting, but over reaching for a team real time adjusting to lineup shuffles. Klay is hurt most by lineup shuffles as his looks come most from the machine being well oiled (which it wasnt). The rest of his game was rock solid. Minimal turnovers and boxing out so the warriors dominated rb battle, were something the whole team did better than opponents and not on stat sheets other than in Wins. Greens usage went up as teams sold out defenses to stop splashes, so he and Iggy look a bit inflated too.

This series will be a unique challenge. Toronto has a great approach, the warriors a bit more adaptability to their gameplans. It may come down to coaching and role player performances. Of course if any star goes nova, that can decide games too. A hot Curry can be almost unbeatable, but how often that occurs is never certain, and doing that at playoff intensity is much harder, as some East rising stars discovered this year.

No doubt the stats are iffy but I think there's a useful snapshot there, and I tried not to sweat small differences too much.

As for Klay....well, he's a fascinating case. The stats are all pretty sure he's the most overrated player in the league, but the rings suggest otherwise.

I think I disagree with you on the "adaptability", though. Without KD I think the warriors game plan is straightforward, even if it's very hard to stop. But there's only one game plan for them now - and if the raps can slow down the splash bros I'm not sure there's any plan B for the offense. The raps though are insanely adaptable - they can play through Kawhi wing ISOs, or through warriors-style screens and threes, or they can go big in the post with gasol/ibaka/Siakam. Defensively, they can go big or small as well as needed....literally without needing to use any inferior defenders.

[everdiso]

This series is going to be extremely close, and Toronto absolutely has the defense to slow down the shorthanded Warriors. It's a close enough series that it will come down to whether the role players are hitting their shots or not. Which we saw was the difference for Toronto over Milwaukee; Van Vleet's 3pt resurrection from dumpster to 'best in history' was enough to swing the series. Had he shot even 50% from 3 in the final 4 games, it's Bucks in 6.

Does Green make more than one 3 over the final 4 games in this scenario?

Green was being removed from the rotation due to his non performance over the course of the playoffs. His continued failure in limited minutes definitely pailes in comparison to the monumental outburst from Van Vleet (who again went from terrible all year to the most efficient scorer history for 3 games).

Obviously that will never be repeated but it's missing the underlying point. The role players that do step up and have huge games will likely be enough to swing a series that is this close (gambling odds be damned). I will still lean Golden State simply because they're the smarter, battle tested team, and they have a 100% Curry+Green.

You can't say "bucks win if Fred isn't hot from 3" and then ignore the guys who were ice cold from 3.

Raps shot 37% from 3 in the series, just like they have all year.

[Triples333]

Does Green make more than one 3 over the final 4 games in this scenario?

Green was being removed from the rotation due to his non performance over the course of the playoffs. His continued failure in limited minutes definitely pailes in comparison to the monumental outburst from Van Vleet (who again went from terrible all year to the most efficient scorer history for 3 games).

Obviously that will never be repeated but it's missing the underlying point. The role players that do step up and have huge games will likely be enough to swing a series that is this close (gambling odds be damned). I will still lean Golden State simply because they're the smarter, battle tested team, and they have a 100% Curry+Green.

You can't say "bucks win if Fred isn't hot from 3" and then ignore the guys who were ice cold from 3.

Raps shot 37% from 3 in the series, just like they have all year.

Let's put it this way. If they both shot their playoff averages (or hell their career high 3pt %'s), the Raptors don't win (objectively, by the numbers). Van Vleet going absolutely nova was a massive series changer for them, and there is no shame in that. It was an extremely close series, and those things can often swing the pendulum one way or the other. Just like I think will be the case against the short-handed Warriors (assuming again no Durant, Cousins).

[Raps in 4]

Im concerned about Kawhi. He looked like he was 60 years old by Game 3 of the last series. Front rimming shots and had zero lift/explosion. Is this guy going to hold up over a finals series? He needs to average 35-40 a night and play 44 minutes.

He played 52 minutes in game 3.

[TOStateofMind]

Seeing the extremes are absolutely hilarious though. You got a lot of GS sweeps and then you also some trying to pretend like GS are some underdogs all of a sudden

[Raps in 4]

Durant is traveling with the team to Toronto according to Haynes.

Read on Twitter

He's coming only to see Drake, he won't play.

Raps were his favourite team growing up, no way he misses the craziness.

Do you guys think Durant might request a S&T to Toronto if we beat the Warriors?

[everdiso]

Green was being removed from the rotation due to his non performance over the course of the playoffs. His continued failure in limited minutes definitely pailes in comparison to the monumental outburst from Van Vleet (who again went from terrible all year to the most efficient scorer history for 3 games).

Obviously that will never be repeated but it's missing the underlying point. The role players that do step up and have huge games will likely be enough to swing a series that is this close (gambling odds be damned). I will still lean Golden State simply because they're the smarter, battle tested team, and they have a 100% Curry+Green.

You can't say "bucks win if Fred isn't hot from 3" and then ignore the guys who were ice cold from 3.

Raps shot 37% from 3 in the series, just like they have all year.

Let's put it this way. If they both shot their playoff averages (or hell their career high 3pt %'s), the Raptors don't win (objectively, by the numbers). Van Vleet going absolutely nova was a massive series changer for them, and there is no shame in that. It was an extremely close series, and those things can often swing the pendulum one way or the other. Just like I think will be the case against the short-handed Warriors (assuming again no Durant, Cousins).

1) Green and Fred combined to shoot 39.2% on 8.5 attempts per game that series. In the regular season, they combined to shoot 42.4% on 10.0 attempts per game. So they actually combined to shoot worse this series than they did in the regular season.

2) This also ignores that Siakam shot 25.0% and Serge shot 10% from 3.


The best way to put it is that the Raps shot 37% from 3 that series, just like they did in the regular season.

[Triples333]

You can't say "bucks win if Fred isn't hot from 3" and then ignore the guys who were ice cold from 3.

Raps shot 37% from 3 in the series, just like they have all year.

Let's put it this way. If they both shot their playoff averages (or hell their career high 3pt %'s), the Raptors don't win (objectively, by the numbers). Van Vleet going absolutely nova was a massive series changer for them, and there is no shame in that. It was an extremely close series, and those things can often swing the pendulum one way or the other. Just like I think will be the case against the short-handed Warriors (assuming again no Durant, Cousins).

1) Green and Fred combined to shoot 39.2% on 8.5 attempts per game that series. In the regular season, they combined to shoot 42.4% on 10.0 attempts per game. So they actually combined to shoot worse this series than they did in the regular season.

2) This also ignores that Siakam shot 25.0% and Serge shot 10% from 3.


The best way to put it is that the Raps shot 37% from 3 that series, just like they did in the regular season.

Lol what am I dealing with right now? This will be my last response to this nonsense. That massive chasm/shift in the shooting from the first 3 games to the Final 3 games is precisely my point. When the role players shot like scrubs, they lost. When they delivered, they won. This is a very simple, benign comment to illustrate that this is ultimately what I believe to be a close Finals upcoming (very similar to Tor/Milwaukee). In a more lopsided series, you can get away with the stars of the better team dictating the outcome in double digit victories.

[PhilBlackson]

Assuming KD doesnt play , Nurse should sick Kawhi on Draymond to nuetralize him pushing pace . Steph is goin to get his but you cant allow Dray to have lines like 15/10/10 like he was putting up in the portland series . Gasol will likely be only played in short stints with kerr using his death lineup .

Lowry on Steph
DG or Norm on Klay
Kawhi on Dray
Siakm on Iggy
Gasol on Bogut or Looney

Personally I'm putting Siakam's length, speed and endurance to use and he's guarding Klay and occasionally switching on to Steph. Those guys are quick (as Pascal is) and need something to disrupt the rhythm/mechanics of their shot. Exactly why at times.... I'm using Kawhi too.

I'll let guys like Iggy and Dray try to beat me and in fact it's why I'm putting Lowry on Draymond. He'd be pesky as hell and doesn't need to be glued to him on the perimeter since Dray isn't a reliable 3pt shooter. DG/Norm take Iggy and work as help defenders on Steph/Klay. I'm only occasionally putting Kawhi on Iggy or Draymond when we need to pace him otherwise we're doing everything we can to turn the taps off on the Splash Bros (period).

[RaptorHooter]

Let's put it this way. If they both shot their playoff averages (or hell their career high 3pt %'s), the Raptors don't win (objectively, by the numbers). Van Vleet going absolutely nova was a massive series changer for them, and there is no shame in that. It was an extremely close series, and those things can often swing the pendulum one way or the other. Just like I think will be the case against the short-handed Warriors (assuming again no Durant, Cousins).

1) Green and Fred combined to shoot 39.2% on 8.5 attempts per game that series. In the regular season, they combined to shoot 42.4% on 10.0 attempts per game. So they actually combined to shoot worse this series than they did in the regular season.

2) This also ignores that Siakam shot 25.0% and Serge shot 10% from 3.


The best way to put it is that the Raps shot 37% from 3 that series, just like they did in the regular season.

Lol what am I dealing with right now? This will be my last response to this nonsense. That massive chasm/shift in the shooting from the first 3 games to the Final 3 games is precisely my point. When the role players shot like scrubs, they lost. When they delivered, they won. This is a very simple, benign comment to illustrate that this is ultimately what I believe to be a close Finals upcoming (very similar to Tor/Milwaukee). In a more lopsided series, you can get away with the stars of the better team dictating the outcome in double digit victories.

Fred lit it up starting the day after his child was born, he obviously won't keep shooting 80%, but Green won't keep shooting 10% either. They're both consistent 40%ers, the 3's will be flying on both ends, hopefully they can stay up with the Splash Bros.

[Son Goku 25]

damnn man, this series is so far away.

Then after game 1, it'll be another few days haha great for players though which is main thing.

[everdiso]

Let's put it this way. If they both shot their playoff averages (or hell their career high 3pt %'s), the Raptors don't win (objectively, by the numbers). Van Vleet going absolutely nova was a massive series changer for them, and there is no shame in that. It was an extremely close series, and those things can often swing the pendulum one way or the other. Just like I think will be the case against the short-handed Warriors (assuming again no Durant, Cousins).

1) Green and Fred combined to shoot 39.2% on 8.5 attempts per game that series. In the regular season, they combined to shoot 42.4% on 10.0 attempts per game. So they actually combined to shoot worse this series than they did in the regular season.

2) This also ignores that Siakam shot 25.0% and Serge shot 10% from 3.


The best way to put it is that the Raps shot 37% from 3 that series, just like they did in the regular season.

Lol what am I dealing with right now? This will be my last response to this nonsense. That massive chasm/shift in the shooting from the first 3 games to the Final 3 games is precisely my point. When the role players shot like scrubs, they lost. When they delivered, they won. This is a very simple, benign comment to illustrate that this is ultimately what I believe to be a close Finals upcoming (very similar to Tor/Milwaukee). In a more lopsided series, you can get away with the stars of the better team dictating the outcome in double digit victories.

You said if Fred doesn't get hot the raps lose in 6.

It's a nonsensical statement, implying that one player's tiny sample hot streak is more important than another player's tiny sample size cold streak.