Post#264 » by Richfield » Wed May 29, 2019 7:27 am
What's in a name? Hope?
This could sound crazy, because maybe it is. But you know what else is crazy? Human behavior.
This is for you extra superstitious draft junkies out there. The ones looking for any little edge or hint to go in one direction over the other. And fair warning when/if you get done reading this you might just not see what I'm seeing, or imagining. Proceed at your own risk.
I've had some "to-my-self" theories about names over the years, and human behavior when it comes to draft picks and internet discussion of certain types of names. I think we can all admit that when a player has an exotic name of certain types, it makes it that much more satisfying to draft them. A recent example might be recent NFL draft pick Rock Ya-Sin. Wouldn't you love to have a guy on your team with a name like that? I know I would. But I don't know why. Here's to wishing Rock Ya-Sin a successful NFL career.
That being said, when the goal is not just the satisfaction of saying a guy's name or wearing it on your back, but to have success on the basketball court, how does human behavior and our affinity for particular types of names affect our ability to accurately judge talent?
I'd like to acknowledge that keeping this to myself would save me from the inevitable "that's ridiculous" or "what are you smoking, can I have some" responses, and so I want to make it clear that I am not claiming there might be something wrong with guys of particular types of names. Rather I am attempting to shed light on what MIGHT be, I stress might, one of those crazy little human behaviors that we don't have much explanation for. A phenomenon if you will. I don't believe this phenomenon is inherent to those that possess these names, but perhaps in the humans observing people that possess these names. Scouts, fans, maybe some coaches.
I've had this feeling in recent years that it's not only guys with exotic names that we like and root for, it might also be guys with first names that are represented by 2 initials. Don't ask me to explain it, it's just a feeling. As if maybe they're somehow cast as an underdog to root for. Or that term of endearment or nickname like that of a family member, guys that you want a reason to say their name as one from your own team. Again, not something I can easily put into words.
Instead of saying it's just a feeling, I just scrapped together a recent names to take a look at the data. Whether its a phenomenon that actually exists I am not prepared to make any statements. More of a question. I've thought about it enough times that maybe getting it out of my head and into a place where it might entertain or get torn to shreds will allow the thoughts to stop tormenting me. I say tormenting me because when I look at mock drafts these days, and see a guy with 2 initial first names, I worry that perhaps they're being rated too highly because of their 2-initial first name, and that possible human tendency to want to pick guys like that.
I went back as far as when drafts went down to 2 rounds. I also have a feeling that modern day media and internet basketball fandom and discussion contribute or are source of the theory. Mock drafts and consensus media discussion seem to sometimes create actual draft bumps, so going back much further than I did is not as relevant to hyping effect involved in the theory. I admit I am a fan of AC Green, consider him a guy I'd want on my team, and there may have been successes or failures in drafts just after his that would add or subtract to the theory. But for consistency sake, I went back as far as 1989 when the NBA went to just 2 rounds. I also did not consider undrafted free agents who may have gotten opportunities nor the results of those opportunities if applicable.
The theory is that we root for these guys, an unexplained human behavior. And whether it's an over confidencing effect, an under-dogging effect, or that we consider them more like the exotic names we want, mentioned above, whatever the reason is it possible we often lean toward picking them over their basketball equals, if not superiors?
Not saying these guys aren't good players, maybe 1 or 2 could be considered great. Maybe these names are perfectly statistically even with any other names as far as hit miss at those draft positions. I don't have the resources to say for sure. But what if they're not? What if we pick them because we also want to root for them more, in addition to their on court talents?
From the list there is definitely a hit or two. CJ McCollum has been excellent for a 10th pick, as long as he and Giannis weren't the two you were trying to decide between. Some other quality guys I'd consider not misses, good rotation players for #10 pick also went after him (Adams, Gobert). Others of these guys you might say they were drafted just right and have had good NBA careers for their draft position. I'm also not clear on if this theory relates to actual draft position or just the feeling that guys with these names get mentioned disproportionately often in basketball forums. I included Acie Law on the list because a lot of us hear that name and thing AC the first time, I know I did, and there was a time I thought he'd be successful in the NBA, I thought it was because he had good court vision. And I put HS next to JR's name to remind that he was not a known product coming out of college. Tough call for a HS guy.
1989-2018 draftees with 2-initial first names followed by their draft position:
JR Reid (5)
BJ Armstrong (18)
AJ English (37)
PJ Brown (29)
BJ Tyler (20)
CJ Bruton (52)
JR Henderson (56)
AJ Bramlett (39)
JR Koch (46)
AJ Guyton (32)
TJ Ford (8)
JR Smith (18) HS
CJ Miles (34)
JJ Redick (11)
PJ Tucker (35)
JR Pinnock (58)
Acie Law (11)
DJ Strawberry (59)
OJ Mayo (3)
DJ Augustin (9)
JJ Hickson (19)
DJ White (29)
JR Giddens (30)
AJ Price (52)
CJ McCollum (10)
TJ Warren (14)
PJ Hairston (26)
CJ Wilcox (28)
KJ McDaniels (32)
RJ Hunter (28)
JP Tokoto (58)
AJ Hammons (46)
TJ Leaf (18)
OG Anunoby (23)
Admit it. You thought a lot of these guys would be better than they actually were. I had to read a lot of these names constantly on NBA forums over the years. Was it the 2-initial first names that contributed to some of their scouting miscalculations?
From the list, the guys I think are deserving of the spots they were drafted are McCollum, BJ Armstrong, PJ Brown, CJ Miles, PJ Tucker, TJ Warren, and a half nod to JJ Redick (2 allstar went after him, but some busts before him), and another half to OG Anunoby (I want to disqualify OG from list because his name could fit the exotic category too). With those two halves adding to 1, that makes 7 guys out of the list of 34 you would say were good picks at that position. I'll throw in JR Smith and make it 8/34. I like Augustin but too many good players went after him.
8/34 is a good success rate if it's a later pick. Or a not good success rate if it's an earlier pick. So I don't know how to really quantify and test the theory at this point. I can only ask opinion. I did not average the draft positions and divide the success rate by draft position to compare to all names of those same numbers, because I don't know if that was the statistically wise angle to view this from. Part of this post is about throwing out the theory and asking if you guys see anything there? Do guys get a bump in either mock drafts or actual drafts when they have 2-initial first names? This doesn't apply to everybody, but weren't some of you a little more hopeful of these names than how they panned out? Anybody want to plead guilty? Or this is just a crackpot theory?
This post is dedicated to the staunchest of RJ Barrett supporters out there.
