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kulaz3000 wrote:I think it's way too early for accurate mock drafts, I think once the Finals is over, is when things will really ramp up, and you'll see more accurate predictions.
I really don't know why, but I have this strange hunch that Reddish is going top 6.
johnnyvann840 wrote:cjbulls wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:It's become such a game. And honestly I really truly believe that there are a lot of idiots involved in a lot of NBA teams draft processes. I have to laugh when I hear poster say oh these guys are professionals and they're the experts. So many of them got their jobs with nepotism... knowing somebody... being an X player who really doesn't know how to evaluate. Some people have an eye for talent naturally and some people just don't.
Look what Michael Porter Jr pulled off last year and the guy could barely walk and he got drafted in the lottery. Hasn't really played basketball in how long now? I mean ffs all you have to do is watch the couple of games that he did play in college and it was so clear that he was having major problems with his back even then 5 months after his surgery.
Lies, fake promises, guys pulling out of workouts, etc. Some of these NBA executives are so afraid of missing out on the next big thing that they fall for this crap. And then you get this groupthink herd mentality about certain players and I'll sit here and watch the same guys in wonder what the hell these morons are even talking about.
kodo is 100% correct. It's become a game to show as little as you possibly can. Most of these guys have already played a full College season and you can see what they are all about and what they can do.... all they can do at this point is hurt themselves in a team sanctioned work out where they actually have to play 5 on 5 or even 3 on 3. So we wind up with these choreographed "Pro days" and garbage like that that only shows the players best side.
I love it even more when a poster comes in and acts like people who dedicate 40 hours a week year round into evaluating players are idiots. The draft is an imperfect science and there is plenty of reasonable ground to disagree. A coach's son who has been doing this for 20 years full-time and has access to information and sources that don't reach the public can't possibly know something. We should trust Johnnyvann's "natural eye" for youtube mixtapes.
Your MPJ example is perfect. You have zero access to the medicals, zero access to much of his pre-college tape, zero interviews with the kid, ran zero background checks, but you knew he was a bust. No, that's how it worked out. There was a lot of uncertainty, so a guy projected to go top 3 went #14, a reasonable compromise even if it's not one I would have done at 14. We will see if they regret not taking Zhaire Smith, their backup option. So far he looks to have plenty of bust potential.
The league is hurting itself by letting players get away with this. Instead of punishing them (through a drop in draft stock) for not providing info (either workouts, medicals, measurements), the league tends to reward them which continues the cycle.
Let me put it really simple for you cj. I'm just a nobody and I can't claim to be an expert on
anything basketball, BUT, I will put my draft boards and my talent evals against any NBA teams for the last 5 years and I would do extremely well. Just because somebody has a job and a title and does something for 40 hrs a week (which is a joke to begin with), doesn't mean they're good at it. I'm 53 years old and if if there is one thing I've learned in life it's to question EVERYTHING. Don't trust anybody else's opinion on something when you can see it for yourself. Trust you own eyes. In these cases none of this stuff is secret... it's all out there. I've had the advantage of knowing some people and can go sit in an editing bay at a major sports network and have game footage and pretty much whatever right at my fingertips. That helps. But again, I don't get paid to give my opinion and I don't care. Doesn't mean I would trust some guy because he works for an NBA team unless he's already proven himself to me in some way. Most of them haven't. Hell, I would take SEVERAL posters here and put more value on their opinions than I would a lot of NBA execs... especially the ones who got their jobs through nepotism, cronyism, etc. GimmeDat probably knows more than most of these players than a lot of those clowns do. Seriously.
Regarding Porter. Only an idiot couldn't have seen this coming. The kid looked like a stiff 5 months after having his first surgery and that was the only basketball he played since high school. It is going to be 2.5 years since he last played competitive basketball healthy and that was in highschool (not counting his debacle at the end of his one year at Mizzou because he looked bad and hurt) if he even plays this season. He's a walking disabled list waiting to happen. We had doctors here on this site telling us how foolish and risky it would be to draft a kid like him after microdiscetomy. Luckily, the Bulls didn't fall for his lies and fraudulent behavior leading up to the draft.
BigUps wrote:AshyLarrysDiaper wrote:JimmyJammer wrote:According to this article, apparently, 9 out of 10 mock drafts have the Bulls picking Coby White at 7, which is the closest to a consensus that you are going to find outside of the top 3 picks. If you are a Bulls fan and you happen to not like White for any reason, you better hold on to your Bible and start praying for another team to pick him before 7. I, on the other hand, have no problem with this turn of events.
https://www.nba.com/draft/2019/consensus-mock-draft
Maybe the Bulls would draft Coby White, maybe not. But a lot of these mocks have him going to Chicago because of lazy thinking.
The Bulls need a PG + Garland is off the board = Bulls draft Coby White. That's it.
I knew this would happen post-lottery, and I hate how boring it's made a lot of the pre-draft analysis.
There is some lazy train of thought and then there is the actual reality some wont believe in that Coby White could actually be the best player available at 7 too. He could fit a need and be BPA. It is possible and at this point in the draft process I think thats most of what is happening.
I just don't get the Coby White detractors on the board. He's a damn fine prospect.
jump wrote:I keep having the feeling we are going to be sitting at 7 deciding between Hunter and Reddish.
Do we think Hunter is at least safe? A better version of Hutch? Maybe can become the back up PF? Potential to become something special?
Or do we think Reddish's obvious natural ability HAS to express itself as a pro? That the Duke freshman season was an aboration...that he indeed had a secret injury that hampered his oh so obvious talents?
kulaz3000 wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:Am2626 wrote:This is the mock draft before the start of the college season. It’s funny how so much can change in 1 year. 7 of the top 9 pojected picks will be available for the Bulls at 7. In my opinion getting rid of the one and done rule is a big mistake. If anything it should be raised to 2 years. Expect a lot of projects and busts once high school kids can jump straight to the NBA.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/syndication.bleacherreport.com/amp/2789663-way-too-soon-2019-nba-mock-draft-rj-barrett-early-favorite-to-go-no-1.amp.html
So true. This miss rate is already so high and the best players are getting spread around these drafts so much already. Just wait until the one and done rule is gone. The NBA needs a "minor league" badly. A place where these children (I mean a college freshman is still just a child as it is) can park for a year or two and learn a little about life and basketball before getting that big payday. I know the NBA has talked about making the GLeague more of that type of thing.
It's going to get bad and even harder to evaluate what are just kids, basically, even more so. Draft is going to become just darts at a board for all but the clear cut superstar like Lebron. He's the only player that has been in the last couple of decades that it was crystal CLEAR he was going to be a superstar when he was in high school. Derrick Rose was about as close as you can get when he was a high schooler and he wasn't even the clear cut pick over Beasley in that draft after his freshman year at Memphis and he did nothing to hurt his stock.
I think the main reason why they are lowering the age limit is help the G-League. I think eventually, they want a G-league team for each franchise, and to start building up the talent pool in that league, so it becomes a legitimate farming league, which I think overtime will happen.
The G-league is already working quite well, but once there are younger prospects coming into the league, it will only help the league that much more with more talent, albeit more raw talent.
dumbell78 wrote:kulaz3000 wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:
So true. This miss rate is already so high and the best players are getting spread around these drafts so much already. Just wait until the one and done rule is gone. The NBA needs a "minor league" badly. A place where these children (I mean a college freshman is still just a child as it is) can park for a year or two and learn a little about life and basketball before getting that big payday. I know the NBA has talked about making the GLeague more of that type of thing.
It's going to get bad and even harder to evaluate what are just kids, basically, even more so. Draft is going to become just darts at a board for all but the clear cut superstar like Lebron. He's the only player that has been in the last couple of decades that it was crystal CLEAR he was going to be a superstar when he was in high school. Derrick Rose was about as close as you can get when he was a high schooler and he wasn't even the clear cut pick over Beasley in that draft after his freshman year at Memphis and he did nothing to hurt his stock.
I think the main reason why they are lowering the age limit is help the G-League. I think eventually, they want a G-league team for each franchise, and to start building up the talent pool in that league, so it becomes a legitimate farming league, which I think overtime will happen.
The G-league is already working quite well, but once there are younger prospects coming into the league, it will only help the league that much more with more talent, albeit more raw talent.
Silver indirectly said as much on Get Up when talking about the Hamilton kid going to Australia for one year out of HS. Silver is frankly envious of that and wants it to happen in the States as opposed to over seas. G League should be primed for that approach.
Plus I'm all for crippling the fraudsters in the NCAA. Anything to take $$ away from that cesspool.
Benedict Miller wrote:Hopefully Hunter slides to the Bulls. We need a player with his defensive versatility on the roster.
kulaz3000 wrote:dumbell78 wrote:kulaz3000 wrote:
I think the main reason why they are lowering the age limit is help the G-League. I think eventually, they want a G-league team for each franchise, and to start building up the talent pool in that league, so it becomes a legitimate farming league, which I think overtime will happen.
The G-league is already working quite well, but once there are younger prospects coming into the league, it will only help the league that much more with more talent, albeit more raw talent.
Silver indirectly said as much on Get Up when talking about the Hamilton kid going to Australia for one year out of HS. Silver is frankly envious of that and wants it to happen in the States as opposed to over seas. G League should be primed for that approach.
Plus I'm all for crippling the fraudsters in the NCAA. Anything to take $$ away from that cesspool.
Agreed, and the more talent they can put into the G-league the more people will want to actually go and pay to watch these games, which will inevitably allow larger salaries for the players.
It's been a slow process, but the league has been progressing really well, and as I said, soon enough, perhaps in a decades time, it will likely end up being a full fledged minor league where I think it would be viable for players to come straight out of high school straight into the G-league instead of opting to go to college or an international league.
BigUps wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:So White and Garland are both reported to have promises in the top six? Is that right?
Who knows, but lets just talk about the idea of this promise stuff. What advantage to the team is there to promise someone a top 10ish pick? Sure, they dont go workout for other teams, but is that really that big of a deal? Wouldn't you also want to take a look at other potential options to pick as well?
I just don't really see the advantage of promising players who will be picked early in the draft. Later on, sure, but top 10 seems silly.
johnnyvann840 wrote:So White and Garland are both reported to have promises in the top six? Is that right?
Bullbleep wrote:BigUps wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:So White and Garland are both reported to have promises in the top six? Is that right?
Who knows, but lets just talk about the idea of this promise stuff. What advantage to the team is there to promise someone a top 10ish pick? Sure, they dont go workout for other teams, but is that really that big of a deal? Wouldn't you also want to take a look at other potential options to pick as well?
I just don't really see the advantage of promising players who will be picked early in the draft. Later on, sure, but top 10 seems silly.
This! Promises at the top of the draft make zero sense for either teams or players. The team making the promise loses the flexibility to move up/down/trade at a place in the draft where that may really matter. If a different player the team really likes, but doesn’t believe will be available, happens to slide, that team is screwed. On the player side, he’s potentially giving up draft slots where the salary differences are larger. At the top of the draft, each lower slot represents roughly a 10% cut in the player’s contract. In Hutchison territory, a promise may make sense for both parties. At the top of the draft, they make sense for neither.
Its just conjecture that Garland and/or White left the combine because of a promise, and it’s the type of conjecture that flunks the logic test...
jump wrote:I keep having the feeling we are going to be sitting at 7 deciding between Hunter and Reddish.
Do we think Hunter is at least safe? A better version of Hutch? Maybe can become the back up PF? Potential to become something special?
Or do we think Reddish's obvious natural ability HAS to express itself as a pro? That the Duke freshman season was an aboration...that he indeed had a secret injury that hampered his oh so obvious talents?
kulaz3000 wrote:Agreed, and the more talent they can put into the G-league the more people will want to actually go and pay to watch these games, which will inevitably allow larger salaries for the players.
It's been a slow process, but the league has been progressing really well, and as I said, soon enough, perhaps in a decades time, it will likely end up being a full fledged minor league where I think it would be viable for players to come straight out of high school straight into the G-league instead of opting to go to college or an international league.
Bulls Fan 23 wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:cjbulls wrote:
I love it even more when a poster comes in and acts like people who dedicate 40 hours a week year round into evaluating players are idiots. The draft is an imperfect science and there is plenty of reasonable ground to disagree. A coach's son who has been doing this for 20 years full-time and has access to information and sources that don't reach the public can't possibly know something. We should trust Johnnyvann's "natural eye" for youtube mixtapes.
Your MPJ example is perfect. You have zero access to the medicals, zero access to much of his pre-college tape, zero interviews with the kid, ran zero background checks, but you knew he was a bust. No, that's how it worked out. There was a lot of uncertainty, so a guy projected to go top 3 went #14, a reasonable compromise even if it's not one I would have done at 14. We will see if they regret not taking Zhaire Smith, their backup option. So far he looks to have plenty of bust potential.
The league is hurting itself by letting players get away with this. Instead of punishing them (through a drop in draft stock) for not providing info (either workouts, medicals, measurements), the league tends to reward them which continues the cycle.
Let me put it really simple for you cj. I'm just a nobody and I can't claim to be an expert on
anything basketball, BUT, I will put my draft boards and my talent evals against any NBA teams for the last 5 years and I would do extremely well. Just because somebody has a job and a title and does something for 40 hrs a week (which is a joke to begin with), doesn't mean they're good at it. I'm 53 years old and if if there is one thing I've learned in life it's to question EVERYTHING. Don't trust anybody else's opinion on something when you can see it for yourself. Trust you own eyes. In these cases none of this stuff is secret... it's all out there. I've had the advantage of knowing some people and can go sit in an editing bay at a major sports network and have game footage and pretty much whatever right at my fingertips. That helps. But again, I don't get paid to give my opinion and I don't care. Doesn't mean I would trust some guy because he works for an NBA team unless he's already proven himself to me in some way. Most of them haven't. Hell, I would take SEVERAL posters here and put more value on their opinions than I would a lot of NBA execs... especially the ones who got their jobs through nepotism, cronyism, etc. GimmeDat probably knows more than most of these players than a lot of those clowns do. Seriously.
Regarding Porter. Only an idiot couldn't have seen this coming. The kid looked like a stiff 5 months after having his first surgery and that was the only basketball he played since high school. It is going to be 2.5 years since he last played competitive basketball healthy and that was in highschool (not counting his debacle at the end of his one year at Mizzou because he looked bad and hurt) if he even plays this season. He's a walking disabled list waiting to happen. We had doctors here on this site telling us how foolish and risky it would be to draft a kid like him after microdiscetomy. Luckily, the Bulls didn't fall for his lies and fraudulent behavior leading up to the draft.
Johnny, I look forward every year to your player analysis. I don't watch a lot of college bball and you are very good at evaluating talent. I've enjoyed some of the gems you've identified.
Keep it up
MeloRoseNoah wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:So White and Garland are both reported to have promises in the top six? Is that right?
Yup, it’s very likely for Garland to be a Lakers and White to be a Suns. This is the best scenario for us, allowing us to get the possible 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft at #7.
A lot of people are sleeping on Hunter bc of his stiffness. I don’t know whether he’s going to be a star or not. But I’m certain that Hunter will be a legit third or fourth option on offense with legit defensive lockdown potential on a championship caliber team. That’s great value for the #7 overall pick.
gundysmullet wrote:MeloRoseNoah wrote:johnnyvann840 wrote:So White and Garland are both reported to have promises in the top six? Is that right?
Yup, it’s very likely for Garland to be a Lakers and White to be a Suns. This is the best scenario for us, allowing us to get the possible 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft at #7.
A lot of people are sleeping on Hunter bc of his stiffness. I don’t know whether he’s going to be a star or not. But I’m certain that Hunter will be a legit third or fourth option on offense with legit defensive lockdown potential on a championship caliber team. That’s great value for the #7 overall pick.
If the collective team is called the Lakers and Suns wouldn’t one player be a Laker or a Sun? I’ve always wondered about this; kind of like when political commentators say attorneys general instead of attorney generals.
ThreeYearPlan wrote:Bulls fans defend HomoSapien more than Rose.
HomoSapien wrote:gundysmullet wrote:MeloRoseNoah wrote:
Yup, it’s very likely for Garland to be a Lakers and White to be a Suns. This is the best scenario for us, allowing us to get the possible 2nd or 3rd best player in this draft at #7.
A lot of people are sleeping on Hunter bc of his stiffness. I don’t know whether he’s going to be a star or not. But I’m certain that Hunter will be a legit third or fourth option on offense with legit defensive lockdown potential on a championship caliber team. That’s great value for the #7 overall pick.
If the collective team is called the Lakers and Suns wouldn’t one player be a Laker or a Sun? I’ve always wondered about this; kind of like when political commentators say attorneys general instead of attorney generals.
It's not the Lakers. They have no need to make a promise to Garland or White, because both will definitely be on the board when they pick. On top of that, they're probably still actively searching the trade market to build a contender around LeBron.
It's likely the Suns (Garland) and Cavs (White). At 6'5", White work well with Sexton and can help make up for his deficiencies in the passing department.