2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[kodo]

If Cam had stopped playing he'd be looked on a bit more favorably but he's still in the same tier. So I doubt he'd be drafted top 3. He's still in that 5-8 tier.

With Morant, Garland, Barrett you have play creators who can create on ball and initiate an offense or act as a safety valve when the offense is well defended. Culver also fits here to some extent.

With Reddish you have a guy who is almost completely assisted by the play or other guys. In the Kentucky game which was one of Reddish's best games he had only 2 baskets which he made for himself and both were straight line drives on small defenders. Everything else from his 22 point game was a catch & shoot from standing around the perimeter not moving.

If a team drafts Reddish and it works out, he'll be a good 3&D guy for them like Robert Covington or Ariza. But teams drafting top 3 want to roll the dice for a potentially bigger payoff.

[panthermark]

Most people would take a crap shoot over #7 this year.

Memphis is a bottom 5 team with their rebuild (although I love the Morant/JJJ pairing for the future). They are not going to come close making the playoffs in the next two years in the Western Conference. So the pick will be in the 1-10 range. This year's 7 is more like a traditional draft's 10, plus you get the upside it could be #1.

The Memphis pick is 1-6 protected next year....so you are looking at the #7 pick (again) at best....or unprotected 2 years from now. Who knows how they will be at the end of 2 years from now. I'm assuming Conley will be moved, and they will have a ton of cap space.

I know where Memphis will be, not in the playoffs. They won't even be contending with a deep West. Where are GSW, Houston, Portland, Utah, Denver, Lakers, Clippers and OKC going? Maybe Spurs drop off but then you have Sacramento, Minnesota and even Phoenix to contend with.

If you could guarantee it right now, I'd take #7 next year over this year's pick.

It's clear that downside is minimal but upside is high on this type of deal.

But it can't be guaranteed...that is the problem. If Memphis is as bad as you think they will be...the downside is that you gave up the 7th pick this year, for what is most likely a 2021 pick that could be anything because if they move Conley, they will have almost no salary going into 2020-21.
Look at their books...if Conley is moved, their next three highest salaries are all off the books at the end of next season. I have no clue what they will do.

[cjbulls]

If Cam had stopped playing he'd be looked on a bit more favorably but he's still in the same tier. So I doubt he'd be drafted top 3. He's still in that 5-8 tier.

With Morant, Garland, Barrett you have play creators who can create on ball and initiate an offense or act as a safety valve when the offense is well defended. Culver also fits here to some extent.

With Reddish you have a guy who is almost completely assisted by the play or other guys. In the Kentucky game which was one of Reddish's best games he had only 2 baskets which he made for himself and both were straight line drives on small defenders. Everything else from his 22 point game was a catch & shoot from standing around the perimeter not moving.

If a team drafts Reddish and it works out, he'll be a good 3&D guy for them like Robert Covington or Ariza. But teams drafting top 3 want to roll the dice for a potentially bigger payoff.

By that logic, people should not be drafting Garland in the first round. He's just an undersized SG (that's what he played at Vandy) with a negative assist to turnover ratio. But that's not what happened. Those numbers have been excused (rightfully) and referred back to past performance. The positive numbers have been given positive light and negative numbers swept under the rug.

With Reddish, those percentages, especially the 3s are eye-popping (42.5% on 8 attempts). People would look to his past performance where he was the PG in HS and earned his pre-season top 3 status to excuse his catch-and-shoot tendency, especially on that Duke team for 5 games. Then add in his workouts. No contest he goes ahead of Barrett and Ja may have been circumstantial.

[cjbulls]

The Memphis pick is 1-6 protected next year....so you are looking at the #7 pick (again) at best....or unprotected 2 years from now. Who knows how they will be at the end of 2 years from now. I'm assuming Conley will be moved, and they will have a ton of cap space.

I know where Memphis will be, not in the playoffs. They won't even be contending with a deep West. Where are GSW, Houston, Portland, Utah, Denver, Lakers, Clippers and OKC going? Maybe Spurs drop off but then you have Sacramento, Minnesota and even Phoenix to contend with.

If you could guarantee it right now, I'd take #7 next year over this year's pick.

It's clear that downside is minimal but upside is high on this type of deal.

But it can't be guaranteed...that is the problem. If Memphis is as bad as you think they will be...the downside is that you gave up the 7th pick this year, for what is most likely a 2021 pick that could be anything because if they move Conley, they will have almost no salary going into 2020-21.
Look at their books...if Conley is moved, their next three highest salaries are all off the books at the end of next season. I have no clue what they will do.

Ok so a bottom-5 MEMPHIS team that sports only second year Ja and third year JJJ is signing a bunch of max free agents? I must have missed those Durant rumors. Can you name a team in the Western Conference team they'd overtake? Phoenix maybe?

[Axolotl]

Watched a bit of Hunter, Culver, Garland and White.

Hunter and Culver seem to be able to do everything, but none of it in a way that shines. A jack of all trades can help a team a lot - and nothing that I can see is in the way of either of them becoming a master at some aspect of the game - or very good jacks of all trades. Jimmy Butler, I think, is sort of a best case scenario for a jack of all trades.

White, I don't really like his game. Twitchy and hectic, no balance. Unpleasant to the eye. But he is quick. Very quick. Not sold on his playmaking either. That, too, looks to carry the hurried quality of his court presence.

Garland is the only one that made me think "that guy, he good". It's not just the handle and the shooting, but something about the way he is on the court. He has "it", and I his case, I'm not even sure what "it" is. Will "it" translate to NBA? I have no idea. He is in the small side, and I have no clear idea about his defence and playmaking, but man, he plays a fun brand of basketball.

[panthermark]

I know where Memphis will be, not in the playoffs. They won't even be contending with a deep West. Where are GSW, Houston, Portland, Utah, Denver, Lakers, Clippers and OKC going? Maybe Spurs drop off but then you have Sacramento, Minnesota and even Phoenix to contend with.

If you could guarantee it right now, I'd take #7 next year over this year's pick.

It's clear that downside is minimal but upside is high on this type of deal.

But it can't be guaranteed...that is the problem. If Memphis is as bad as you think they will be...the downside is that you gave up the 7th pick this year, for what is most likely a 2021 pick that could be anything because if they move Conley, they will have almost no salary going into 2020-21.
Look at their books...if Conley is moved, their next three highest salaries are all off the books at the end of next season. I have no clue what they will do.

Ok so a bottom-5 MEMPHIS team that sports only second year Ja and third year JJJ is signing a bunch of max free agents? I must have missed those Durant rumors. Can you name a team in the Western Conference team they'd overtake? Phoenix maybe?

1. It isn't just the west. The draft pick would be based on all the teams that don't make the play-offs.
2. The new lottery rules makes "bottom 5" a crap shoot. Pretty sure WE were bottom 5 in the NBA, and we ended up with the 7th pick.

The Suns had the worst record in the west, and the 2nd worst in the NBA, and ended up with the 6th pick.

[TheSuzerain]

And then completely unprotected in 2021.

You have stated the #7 pick isn't very good this year because of a weak draft. Who wouldn't prefer to roll the dice given that the Grizz are the second most likely team to be bad in the next two years (Cavs #1). The #9 pick next year alone will probably be worth more than this #7 pick, or at least on par.

#9 pick next year would not be worth more than the #7 pick this year.

A team like the Celtics who want badly to win now and need to consolidate could be a good trading partner for us.

The Grizz were the 7th worse team in the league this year per SRS. They have Jaren Jackson and will be pairing him with Ja Morant. That's arguably 2 pieces better than anyone we've got. They'll also likely be flipping Mike Conley for value.

The Grizz pick COULD be a top pick. But it's more likely to be outside the top 6 than inside it.

Ja and JJJ and what, Valunciunus is no contest compared to LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, WCJ and White (just guessing at the pick)

With Conley and Gasol (critical distinction), they started 12-5 and were .500 through Jan. 1. They finished 33-49

Ja, Delon Wright, JJJ, Valanciunas, and whatever they get for Conley. They have a nice core of actual winning players (read: they play defense).

[cjbulls]

But it can't be guaranteed...that is the problem. If Memphis is as bad as you think they will be...the downside is that you gave up the 7th pick this year, for what is most likely a 2021 pick that could be anything because if they move Conley, they will have almost no salary going into 2020-21.
Look at their books...if Conley is moved, their next three highest salaries are all off the books at the end of next season. I have no clue what they will do.

Ok so a bottom-5 MEMPHIS team that sports only second year Ja and third year JJJ is signing a bunch of max free agents? I must have missed those Durant rumors. Can you name a team in the Western Conference team they'd overtake? Phoenix maybe?

1. It isn't just the west. The draft pick would be based on all the teams that don't make the play-offs.
2. The new lottery rules makes "bottom 5" a crap shoot. Pretty sure WE were bottom 5 in the NBA, and we ended up with the 7th pick.

The Suns had the worst record in the west, and the 2nd worst in the NBA, and ended up with the 6th pick.

Yes, and the Lakers, Pelicans and Grizzlies moved up despite being in the 9-12 range. So even if Memphis slightly outperforms, you can still get the #1 pick.

And who in the East is worse, Cleveland? That's about it. So yes, as a bottom 5 team, I know the odds can go in any direction, but as I mentioned earlier, I have a high high likelihood of getting a pick somewhere 1-10, with a high upside that I could get a game changing player at #1 or #2 overall.

As opposed to keeping #7 in a weak draft. Does Boston have a burning need for Jarrett Culver?

[cjbulls]

#9 pick next year would not be worth more than the #7 pick this year.

A team like the Celtics who want badly to win now and need to consolidate could be a good trading partner for us.

The Grizz were the 7th worse team in the league this year per SRS. They have Jaren Jackson and will be pairing him with Ja Morant. That's arguably 2 pieces better than anyone we've got. They'll also likely be flipping Mike Conley for value.

The Grizz pick COULD be a top pick. But it's more likely to be outside the top 6 than inside it.

Ja and JJJ and what, Valunciunus is no contest compared to LaVine, Porter, Markkanen, WCJ and White (just guessing at the pick)

With Conley and Gasol (critical distinction), they started 12-5 and were .500 through Jan. 1. They finished 33-49

Ja, Delon Wright, JJJ, Valanciunas, and whatever they get for Conley. They have a nice core of actual winning players (read: they play defense).

Who are they passing in the West?

[ThisGuyFawkes]

But it can't be guaranteed...that is the problem. If Memphis is as bad as you think they will be...the downside is that you gave up the 7th pick this year, for what is most likely a 2021 pick that could be anything because if they move Conley, they will have almost no salary going into 2020-21.
Look at their books...if Conley is moved, their next three highest salaries are all off the books at the end of next season. I have no clue what they will do.

Ok so a bottom-5 MEMPHIS team that sports only second year Ja and third year JJJ is signing a bunch of max free agents? I must have missed those Durant rumors. Can you name a team in the Western Conference team they'd overtake? Phoenix maybe?

1. It isn't just the west. The draft pick would be based on all the teams that don't make the play-offs.
2. The new lottery rules makes "bottom 5" a crap shoot. Pretty sure WE were bottom 5 in the NBA, and we ended up with the 7th pick.

The Suns had the worst record in the west, and the 2nd worst in the NBA, and ended up with the 6th pick.

Not only that, but the Grizzlies don't need to sign a bunch of superstars to make their pick unattractive. Using their cap space to sign some solid veterans and roleplayers, along with the growth of JJJ and Ja could mean a trip to the playoffs. If the pick ends up being #20, then is it still worth it?

[3noD]

But, I'm pretty sure that he's guaranteed to go #4 with Lebron as the GM in LA.

Put your situation in Garland's shoes. If you're not guaranteed to be drafted by LA, would you still not work out for other teams, considering the possibility of a drop as well as his recent injury? But, he's shutting everything down and not working out for any other team.

Maybe he's naive. But his agent is Lebron's best buddy. I doubt that Lebron is going screw over his buddy like that.

Maybe his promise is with a higher team, but he’ll still work out with LA because that’s his top destination.
Put yourself in LA’s shoes. You are 100% sure you can get Garland. You are in win now mode with Lebron. And yet your going to make a promise to a young unproven, ball dominant guard without doing your due diligence on other players? That stuff will get a GM fired.


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Your reasoning is very sound, but LeBron/Klutch could throw a wrinkle into things. I could see them working out Garland all spring and having him hang with LeBron and LeBron really liking him. Remember when he was tweeting to draft Shabazz Napier. It would be like that, but behind the scenes.

The biggest doubt for that scenario, to me, is why show up at all to the combine then? My understanding is that Garland abruptly left after the promise. It seems like if the Lakers wanted to make a promise through LeBron/Klutch, it would have come sooner (or even later). But they wouldn't bother waiting until the middle of the combine.

Lebron may want to boost the stock of someone in his agency. Now who knows, maybe Garland is that talented and Lebron and Lakers want him. But wouldn’t someone who’s that desperate to win, (and Lebron has to see his window of opportunity closing real fast), at least do their due diligence? In terms of trades available? In terms of full assessment of other players?

And my main point is that I don’t necessarily see the fit for an organization that is banking on the next 2/3 years. Inexperienced point guard, who is flashy and ball dominant. Likely much inferior defender than other players available at this spot. Even Kyrie took time to adjust to playing with Lebron. And chances are Garland is not Kyrie.


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[HomoSapien]

It's not the Lakers. They have no need to make a promise to Garland or White, because both will definitely be on the board when they pick. On top of that, they're probably still actively searching the trade market to build a contender around LeBron.

It's likely the Suns (Garland) and Cavs (White). At 6'5", White work well with Sexton and can help make up for his deficiencies in the passing department.

Darius Garland isn't working out for anyone with the exception of the Lakers. The dude has been hanging around Klutch Sports and the Lakers facility throughout this entire draft process.

The Lakers is run by Pelinka who's an incompetent moron. Behind that tool is the whole entourage of Lebron and Klutch. Yes, Garland is certainly a sure bet to go #4.

The trade market will be centered around Lonzo Ball, not Darius Garland who's a shooter for Lebron. That's why you have been hearing bs rumor of Lonzo Ball for #7 from news outlet.

No doubt Garland wants to go to LA. And of course, LA will want to work out Garland. But there’s no guarantee LA will take him. And they would be stupid to tie their hands on him when there is zero need to do so for them.


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Yeah, I agree with 3noD. There may be mutual interest by both sides, but there's absolutely no incentive for the Lakers to give Garland a promise. He's not creeping into the top 3 and everyone on the planet knows that they're shopping the pick for AD, Beal, etc.

[panthermark]

Ok so a bottom-5 MEMPHIS team that sports only second year Ja and third year JJJ is signing a bunch of max free agents? I must have missed those Durant rumors. Can you name a team in the Western Conference team they'd overtake? Phoenix maybe?

1. It isn't just the west. The draft pick would be based on all the teams that don't make the play-offs.
2. The new lottery rules makes "bottom 5" a crap shoot. Pretty sure WE were bottom 5 in the NBA, and we ended up with the 7th pick.

The Suns had the worst record in the west, and the 2nd worst in the NBA, and ended up with the 6th pick.

Yes, and the Lakers, Pelicans and Grizzlies moved up despite being in the 9-12 range. So even if Memphis slightly outperforms, you can still get the #1 pick.

And who in the East is worse, Cleveland? That's about it. So yes, as a bottom 5 team, I know the odds can go in any direction, but as I mentioned earlier, I have a high high likelihood of getting a pick somewhere 1-10, with a high upside that I could get a game changing player at #1 or #2 overall.

As opposed to keeping #7 in a weak draft. Does Boston have a burning need for Jarrett Culver?

Minny had the 5th worst record in the west.....they are drafting 11th.
Dallas had the same record as the Pelicans and Grizzlies.....33 wins. Two teams are drafting first and second....the 3rd is drafting 10th.

Crap shoot.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

I have no concerns about the value of that Memphis pick. The chances of them turning that ship around in two seasons are slim to none. But that's also why Boston would throw extra protections on that bad boy. Nobody's trading a potential unprotected 2021 pick for the 7th pick in this draft.

[cjbulls]

Ok so a bottom-5 MEMPHIS team that sports only second year Ja and third year JJJ is signing a bunch of max free agents? I must have missed those Durant rumors. Can you name a team in the Western Conference team they'd overtake? Phoenix maybe?

1. It isn't just the west. The draft pick would be based on all the teams that don't make the play-offs.
2. The new lottery rules makes "bottom 5" a crap shoot. Pretty sure WE were bottom 5 in the NBA, and we ended up with the 7th pick.

The Suns had the worst record in the west, and the 2nd worst in the NBA, and ended up with the 6th pick.

Not only that, but the Grizzlies don't need to sign a bunch of superstars to make their pick unattractive. Using their cap space to sign some solid veterans and roleplayers, along with the growth of JJJ and Ja could mean a trip to the playoffs. If the pick ends up being #20, then is it still worth it?

Who are they passing???? They need to pass 7 of these teams. 7!

GSW, Houston, Portland, OKC, Lakers, Clippers, Nuggets, Spurs, Jazz, Pelicans, T'Wolves, Suns, Kings, Mavs.

What vets are signing there? How are they getting these guys to Memphis and what is their impact in 2020?

1. Anthony Davis
2. Draymond Green
3. Andre Drummond (player option)
4. DeRozan (player option)
5. Porzingis
6. Al Horford
7. Mike Conley (player option)
8. Gordon Hayward (player option)
9. GallinarI
10. Marc Gasol (player option)
11. Kyle Lowry
12. Otto Porter (player option)
13. Montrezl Harrell
14. Serge Ibaka
15. Paul Millsap

[cjbulls]

1. It isn't just the west. The draft pick would be based on all the teams that don't make the play-offs.
2. The new lottery rules makes "bottom 5" a crap shoot. Pretty sure WE were bottom 5 in the NBA, and we ended up with the 7th pick.

The Suns had the worst record in the west, and the 2nd worst in the NBA, and ended up with the 6th pick.

Yes, and the Lakers, Pelicans and Grizzlies moved up despite being in the 9-12 range. So even if Memphis slightly outperforms, you can still get the #1 pick.

And who in the East is worse, Cleveland? That's about it. So yes, as a bottom 5 team, I know the odds can go in any direction, but as I mentioned earlier, I have a high high likelihood of getting a pick somewhere 1-10, with a high upside that I could get a game changing player at #1 or #2 overall.

As opposed to keeping #7 in a weak draft. Does Boston have a burning need for Jarrett Culver?

Minny had the 5th worst record in the west.....they are drafting 11th.
Dallas had the same record as the Pelicans and Grizzlies.....33 wins. Two teams are drafting first and second....the 3rd is drafting 10th.

Crap shoot.

Yes, it is a crap shoot. But a smart one. You just described the worst-case scenario. And the 10th or 11th pick in the next two years is about the same as this year's 7th pick. But you could also get #1, or 2, or 3.

[bearadonisdna]

Hunter's STL/Block totals are pretty anemic and while his shooting projects as good, he's pretty clearly behind Mikal Bridges in that category.

If you're picking Hunter at #7, you really should be trading down.

Was gonna mention this to gimmedat but his blocks and steals aren't that important me because he is acc dpoy.

Yes even better than Zion according to that.

[TheSuzerain]

Hunter's STL/Block totals are pretty anemic and while his shooting projects as good, he's pretty clearly behind Mikal Bridges in that category.

If you're picking Hunter at #7, you really should be trading down.

Was gonna mention this to gimmedat but his blocks and steals aren't that important me because he is acc dpoy.

Yes even better than Zion according to that.

lol yeah right. He's probably not even the best defender on UVA.

[panthermark]

Yes, and the Lakers, Pelicans and Grizzlies moved up despite being in the 9-12 range. So even if Memphis slightly outperforms, you can still get the #1 pick.

And who in the East is worse, Cleveland? That's about it. So yes, as a bottom 5 team, I know the odds can go in any direction, but as I mentioned earlier, I have a high high likelihood of getting a pick somewhere 1-10, with a high upside that I could get a game changing player at #1 or #2 overall.

As opposed to keeping #7 in a weak draft. Does Boston have a burning need for Jarrett Culver?

Minny had the 5th worst record in the west.....they are drafting 11th.
Dallas had the same record as the Pelicans and Grizzlies.....33 wins. Two teams are drafting first and second....the 3rd is drafting 10th.

Crap shoot.

Yes, it is a crap shoot. But a smart one. You just described the worst-case scenario. And the 10th or 11th pick in the next two years is about the same as this year's 7th pick. But you could also get #1, or 2, or 3.

The best case scenario is a top 5 pick two years from now. But there is so much that can happen between now and then, that it is a crap shoot of a gamble. If we are getting their pick two years from now, it means they grabbed a top 6 pick in next year's draft, which you already consider a strong draft. How do you account for that?
They don't need to sign vets, they can trade for players by taking on an extra year or two (See Otto Porter).
I have no clue as to how Memphis will look at the end of two years from now. Even if they are not very good, it is still rolling the dice (especially if one and done is gone) because of the new odds.

33 wins ended up with the 1st, the 2nd, and the 10th picks.
32 wins ended up with the 9th pick.
28 wins ended up with the 8th pick.

We don't even know who is available at the 7th pick...but you are already sure that whomever it is, some unknown player two years from now is better than them, even if they are drafted at the same spot.

[Chi town]

So is Carsen Edwards Aaron Brooks with more range?