Around the NBA: 2018—19

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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#521 » by slick_watts » Sun May 26, 2019 5:22 pm

Old Man Game wrote:
slick_watts wrote:
Old Man Game wrote:So the Warriors are likely going to win by a sweep in the conference finals, WITHOUT Durant.

If they win the title this year and do so without significant contribution from Durant in the 2 last rounds, AND Durant re-signs there anyway, he's a freakin' cuck, doormat of a person.

Another thing, we all focus on what we lost when he left for Golden State around here, but watching them without him I'm reminded of what the basketball world generally lost. This version of the Warriors is so much more entertaining. There's actual drama. There's some chance they'll lose and when they play great and win anyway its so much more fun than watching them with Durant out there just steamroll everyone.


even with durant i'm not sure milwaukee would be a pushover for the warriors if they get there.


You jinxed them so hard with this. They were up 2-0 in the series when you made this comment and then got the 2012 Spurs treatment (and Leonard and Danny Green ought to know something about that).


i was talking to someone about this series the other day and you know, it's interesting the parallels between the bucks and spurs. bucks rely so much on their depth. their starters aren't especially dominant but so many of their reserve lineups are. this is the opposite of the raptors and sixers. bucks could have lost more value than some would have thought (myself included) heading into the playoffs against those teams since their opponent's best lineups will see the floor a lot more often.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#522 » by slick_watts » Sun May 26, 2019 5:25 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:Good for Toronto. They gambled with big aquisitions and it paid off. Meanwhile our biggest move in the Durant era was the Perkins trade and the Anthony Morrow signing.


Waiters? Kanter? Technically, the Dipo trade was during the kd era. At the time of the trade they expected him to resign. Your point that there was a lack of big moves to go all-in is accurate. Presti has seemingly made more moves since kd left than he did before. It makes no sense. Post-kd you have PG, Patterson, Morris, Grant, Melo, Schroder and Noel which is at least as much as Presti did during the kd era if not more.


kevin durant stole sam presti's innocence when he left. if today's sam presti running the thunder this whole time we'd have titles.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#523 » by Kizz Fastfists » Mon May 27, 2019 2:05 am

slick_watts wrote:kevin durant stole sam presti's innocence when he left. if today's sam presti running the thunder this whole time we'd have titles.


The problem is Presti is doing it with a team that lacks the ability to be a contender no matter what moves he makes. He didn't make the moves when he needed to push the team over the top. He makes the moves when he is struggling to make the playoffs. Presti has no ability to see the NBA landscape he is too focused on his roster instead of looking at how it compares to the rest of the league and ignores their faults as long as he sees potential upside.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#524 » by Andre Roberstan » Mon May 27, 2019 6:32 pm

slick_watts wrote:i was talking to someone about this series the other day and you know, it's interesting the parallels between the bucks and spurs. bucks rely so much on their depth. their starters aren't especially dominant but so many of their reserve lineups are. this is the opposite of the raptors and sixers. bucks could have lost more value than some would have thought (myself included) heading into the playoffs against those teams since their opponent's best lineups will see the floor a lot more often.


In an ironic twist, this was one of the issues that bit the Raptors the hardest before this year too.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#525 » by slick_watts » Tue May 28, 2019 12:44 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:
slick_watts wrote:kevin durant stole sam presti's innocence when he left. if today's sam presti running the thunder this whole time we'd have titles.


The problem is Presti is doing it with a team that lacks the ability to be a contender no matter what moves he makes. He didn't make the moves when he needed to push the team over the top. He makes the moves when he is struggling to make the playoffs. Presti has no ability to see the NBA landscape he is too focused on his roster instead of looking at how it compares to the rest of the league and ignores their faults as long as he sees potential upside.


my opinion is that sam is trying to find gaps in which the thunder can find value where no other team is looking. even though we have a huge payroll it's like he's playing moneyball. being so burdened by cap space and dwindling assets, he's going against the grain to find some advantage. and, it was sort of working a bit before andre roberson got hurt. that was the end of it. you can only withstand so much talent loss without any compensation.

i find the suggestions that sam presti is (for example) clueless on the value of shooting around the league as glib as the suggestions that billy donovan is a tactically weak coach or 'stupid'.

i never agreed with sam's approach post-kd. i was an advocate for tanking. but if you're going to try and succeed with the resources the thunder had post-kd, it's not so insane to try and find a route to success other teams aren't valuing since you're not going to compete with them on a level playing field otherwise. who is going to sign the best shooters? the thunder and their tax mle or literally any other team in the nba?

anyway those are my Tuesday Thoughts.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#526 » by Pillendreher » Tue May 28, 2019 4:08 pm

slick_watts wrote:i find the suggestions that sam presti is (for example) clueless on the value of shooting around the league as glib as the suggestions that billy donovan is a tactically weak coach or 'stupid'.


Since the Thunder became the Thunder in 2008/09, the average 3P% league wide has been 35.7 %. In those 11 seasons combined, the Thunder rank 24th in 3P% league wide. In the last 5 seasons, 3PAr has climbed drastically. The Thunder rank 28th in 3P%.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me for more than a decade, shame on me.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#527 » by slick_watts » Tue May 28, 2019 4:16 pm

Pillendreher wrote:
slick_watts wrote:i find the suggestions that sam presti is (for example) clueless on the value of shooting around the league as glib as the suggestions that billy donovan is a tactically weak coach or 'stupid'.


Since the Thunder became the Thunder in 2008/09, the average 3P% league wide has been 35.7 %. In those 11 seasons combined, the Thunder rank 24th in 3P% league wide. In the last 5 seasons, 3PAr has climbed drastically. The Thunder rank 28th in 3P%.

Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me for more than a decade, shame on me.


thunder basically had a top 5 offense from 2011 to 2016, with the obvious exception of kd's foot year. they were 3rd in 3p% the year the 9+ srs year but yes never put too much of an emphasis on shooting. FT line was where they dominated. hand wringing about shooting during that time would be odd.

post-kd has been the problem and sam has taken a different approach. again imo to find value in other places so he doesn't have to compete with other teams to acquire shooters. we'll lose that fight. it's dumb we're in this position in the first place but some variant of this was inevitable when we chose not to tank after kd left, and especially after 'dre got hurt. chase shooters and we'll have holes some place else. bigger ones imo.

not having shooting on the team has been bad for the offense for sure. the idea that sam presti doesn't know this is silly, though. of course he does.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#528 » by Pillendreher » Tue May 28, 2019 5:45 pm

slick_watts wrote:thunder basically had a top 5 offense from 2011 to 2016, with the obvious exception of kd's foot year. they were 3rd in 3p% the year the 9+ srs year but yes never put too much of an emphasis on shooting. FT line was where they dominated. hand wringing about shooting during that time would be odd.


No, it wouldn't. The complete lack of shooting has been an issue with this team for so long, there's not a single Thunder fan who even knows what it's like to have a good shooting team because it simply never happened save for the Kevin Martin season. Being great with one of the best cores in the league doesn't mean we didn't lack shooting.

slick_watts wrote:post-kd has been the problem and sam has taken a different approach. again imo to find value in other places so he doesn't have to compete with other teams to acquire shooters. we'll lose that fight. it's dumb we're in this position in the first place but some variant of this was inevitable when we chose not to tank after kd left, and especially after 'dre got hurt. chase shooters and we'll have holes some place else. bigger ones imo.


To win basketball games, you have to be able to score, period. There's only so much one can accomplish by working around the edges.

slick_watts wrote:not having shooting on the team has been bad for the offense for sure. the idea that sam presti doesn't know this is silly, though. of course he does.


How do you know this? What gives you the impression that he does? Time and time again, Presti has prioritized other aspects when it came to trading for and drafting players. He aquired Waiters who was not a fit with this team. He aquired Kanter who was the least of our needs. He aquired Schröder and trusted that a non-shooter would make shots. He aquired Grant who had not shown any sort of consistency as an outside shooter. He drafted Huestis and Roberson. He drafted Ferguson and Diallo. And on and on the list goes...

Like I said: This has been going on for over a decade. It's neither coincidence nor bad luck. It's the result of intentional decision making.

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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#529 » by Old Man Game » Wed May 29, 2019 3:24 am

slick_watts wrote:
Kizz Fastfists wrote:
slick_watts wrote:kevin durant stole sam presti's innocence when he left. if today's sam presti running the thunder this whole time we'd have titles.


The problem is Presti is doing it with a team that lacks the ability to be a contender no matter what moves he makes. He didn't make the moves when he needed to push the team over the top. He makes the moves when he is struggling to make the playoffs. Presti has no ability to see the NBA landscape he is too focused on his roster instead of looking at how it compares to the rest of the league and ignores their faults as long as he sees potential upside.


my opinion is that sam is trying to find gaps in which the thunder can find value where no other team is looking. even though we have a huge payroll it's like he's playing moneyball. being so burdened by cap space and dwindling assets, he's going against the grain to find some advantage. and, it was sort of working a bit before andre roberson got hurt. that was the end of it. you can only withstand so much talent loss without any compensation.

i find the suggestions that sam presti is (for example) clueless on the value of shooting around the league as glib as the suggestions that billy donovan is a tactically weak coach or 'stupid'.

i never agreed with sam's approach post-kd. i was an advocate for tanking. but if you're going to try and succeed with the resources the thunder had post-kd, it's not so insane to try and find a route to success other teams aren't valuing since you're not going to compete with them on a level playing field otherwise. who is going to sign the best shooters? the thunder and their tax mle or literally any other team in the nba?

anyway those are my Tuesday Thoughts.


We were talking about this on here a few months back. At the time I termed it a market inefficiency that he's trying to identify which everyone else is just missing.

What I think one had to acknowledge about this approach is how unlikely it is to succeed. It's like trying to beat the street picking stocks or something. Even a very smart, well resourced person will find that difficult over the long haul. Maybe it's time for Presti to just admit defeat and blow the team up if he's down to this.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#530 » by Kizz Fastfists » Thu May 30, 2019 9:16 pm

I don't have a problem with exploiting market inefficiencies. It works great. The problem is there isn't one out there that Presti can identify that will fix this team. If you go with the idea that the market inefficiency is defense then you have to wonder how Schroder was ever a potential acquisition and why Russ hasn't been forced to play more defense instead of continuing to leave his man to chase defensive rebounds. If the market inefficiency is scoring in the paint then why does Donovan keep encouraging mediocre and bad shooters to jack up 3s.

If the market inefficiency is athletic freaks then OKC should be at least a 2nd round team. There is no market inefficiency for Presti to exploit unless he drastically alters the foundation of the team OR the coaching. We'll assume that Presti is trying to "small ball" the market inefficiency for inside scoring and defense. I would actually support that. However, you can't do that with Donovan and you can't do that with Russ jacking up 5+ three point shots a game. So you either have to get your coach on board and have them get Russ on board or you have to get rid of them both. The problem is that Russ is actually a massive example of an overvalued asset by the market. Russ has all of the flaws without providing unseen value. Russ doesn't get out on breaks because he is chasing defensive rebounds. Russ doesn't play good defense through the shot because he is chasing defense rebounds. Russ kills your shooting by taking bad shots. Russ kills your ability to exploit teams inside by taking too many mid-range, long and 3pt jumpers instead of getting the ball inside. Then you have Donovan furthering that by having guys standing at the 3pt line instead of setting screens away from the ball and having them cut to the basket for a pass from Russ and a layup/dunk.

Noel was a great example of a market inefficiency player. He gives you defense and inside scoring which are undervalued at this point. However, OKC does not use those strengths to try to exploit the inefficiency. Instead they just try to use him to get rebounds as they jack up 3s at a high volume and low percentage. Adams is another example of a player who could be used to exploit the current NBA trend of being smaller, but OKC doesn't do it. OKC actually could go with the trend if they were to trade Russ for a competent shooter. Grant is an ideal small ball 5 at this point and Patterson is fine for your PF with PG and Ferguson as your wings. You just need a PG that doesn't destroy your offense with their terrible shooting.

If Presti wants to go with a defensive, rebounding and inside scoring team he could do that, but again Russ would need to go or drastically change. Grant and Patterson can both move more without the ball, Adams is a big body that can exploit most centers inside, PG is a great two way player who gives you everything, Roberson could be a cutter to get inside scoring and gives you defense, Ferguson is a good defender, gives you solid shooting and could be used more as a cutter to get him inside looks. Schroder doesn't fit and Russ is either has to stop shooting jumpers and start focusing on defense more or go. The Melo trade exception could get someone who fits a defense and inside scoring system. They might be able to trade for Derozen who would be a nice fit if that is how they wanted to go. So there are options out there. However, OKC is being held back either because Donovan truly believes bad shooters, like Russ, should be shooting or the team is help back by Russ refusing to change and Presti telling Donovan to let Russ do what he wants. I don't care if getting rid of Russ would fix it because Presti has proven unwilling to do it. I don't care if getting rid of Donovan would fix it because Presti has proven unwilling to do it. Get rid of Presti because that is the only chance to actually fix it before it is too late and OKC has a much longer rebuild than they ever needed to have because Presti was too damn stupid to initiate the rebuild when he had a chance to make it much faster given his ability to acquire a rebuilding war chest when kd left.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#531 » by Old Man Game » Fri May 31, 2019 3:56 am

Siakam is really something. His physical tools and skill set pairing are a rare combination. That guy is going to get a bench of lanky raw stiffs drafted in the first round that should be career D leaguers.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#532 » by Kizz Fastfists » Fri May 31, 2019 4:18 am

Siakam is an interesting case. He hasn't improved much since he got into the league with the exception of his 3pt shooting. His rebounding rate, turnover rate, 2pt shooting percentages, etc are all in line with he started. Toronto took an athletic kid that could rebound and play defense and gave him a role that he fit as they expanded his game. Now that he has the 3pt shot to go with everything else he fits the mold of your ideal stretch 4.

He wasn't a bad shooter before he was drafted. In college he was a 55% FG shooter and 71% at the line. He only took 17 three point shots in two college seasons. He wasn't a bad shooter he just had never tried shooting 3s. That is a huge difference between what Presti does and what worked with Siakam. Toronto took a kid with a good fundamental shooting stroke and expanded his range. Presti takes guys that are bad shooters and tries to get them to make their bad shooting habits work.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#533 » by slick_watts » Fri May 31, 2019 2:52 pm

Kizz Fastfists wrote:I don't have a problem with exploiting market inefficiencies. It works great. The problem is there isn't one out there that Presti can identify that will fix this team. If you go with the idea that the market inefficiency is defense then you have to wonder how Schroder was ever a potential acquisition and why Russ hasn't been forced to play more defense instead of continuing to leave his man to chase defensive rebounds. If the market inefficiency is scoring in the paint then why does Donovan keep encouraging mediocre and bad shooters to jack up 3s.

If the market inefficiency is athletic freaks then OKC should be at least a 2nd round team. There is no market inefficiency for Presti to exploit unless he drastically alters the foundation of the team OR the coaching. We'll assume that Presti is trying to "small ball" the market inefficiency for inside scoring and defense. I would actually support that. However, you can't do that with Donovan and you can't do that with Russ jacking up 5+ three point shots a game. So you either have to get your coach on board and have them get Russ on board or you have to get rid of them both. The problem is that Russ is actually a massive example of an overvalued asset by the market. Russ has all of the flaws without providing unseen value. Russ doesn't get out on breaks because he is chasing defensive rebounds. Russ doesn't play good defense through the shot because he is chasing defense rebounds. Russ kills your shooting by taking bad shots. Russ kills your ability to exploit teams inside by taking too many mid-range, long and 3pt jumpers instead of getting the ball inside. Then you have Donovan furthering that by having guys standing at the 3pt line instead of setting screens away from the ball and having them cut to the basket for a pass from Russ and a layup/dunk.

Noel was a great example of a market inefficiency player. He gives you defense and inside scoring which are undervalued at this point. However, OKC does not use those strengths to try to exploit the inefficiency. Instead they just try to use him to get rebounds as they jack up 3s at a high volume and low percentage. Adams is another example of a player who could be used to exploit the current NBA trend of being smaller, but OKC doesn't do it. OKC actually could go with the trend if they were to trade Russ for a competent shooter. Grant is an ideal small ball 5 at this point and Patterson is fine for your PF with PG and Ferguson as your wings. You just need a PG that doesn't destroy your offense with their terrible shooting.

If Presti wants to go with a defensive, rebounding and inside scoring team he could do that, but again Russ would need to go or drastically change. Grant and Patterson can both move more without the ball, Adams is a big body that can exploit most centers inside, PG is a great two way player who gives you everything, Roberson could be a cutter to get inside scoring and gives you defense, Ferguson is a good defender, gives you solid shooting and could be used more as a cutter to get him inside looks. Schroder doesn't fit and Russ is either has to stop shooting jumpers and start focusing on defense more or go. The Melo trade exception could get someone who fits a defense and inside scoring system. They might be able to trade for Derozen who would be a nice fit if that is how they wanted to go. So there are options out there. However, OKC is being held back either because Donovan truly believes bad shooters, like Russ, should be shooting or the team is help back by Russ refusing to change and Presti telling Donovan to let Russ do what he wants. I don't care if getting rid of Russ would fix it because Presti has proven unwilling to do it. I don't care if getting rid of Donovan would fix it because Presti has proven unwilling to do it. Get rid of Presti because that is the only chance to actually fix it before it is too late and OKC has a much longer rebuild than they ever needed to have because Presti was too damn stupid to initiate the rebuild when he had a chance to make it much faster given his ability to acquire a rebuilding war chest when kd left.


these are all good points. but it's hard to evaluate post-robes imo. roberson was obviously a critical component to this approach. would the thunder 'd' have whittled down to league average post january if he was here and healthy? i doubt it. and of course as you seem to allude to, any approach sam is going to have is at odds with how the thunder want to treat their star players.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#534 » by Old Man Game » Thu Jun 6, 2019 12:19 pm

This is the most I've ever watched Toronto for an extended period. They have their moments but by in large that's a hard team to watch. Lowry in particular makes me want to pull my hair out. That in their meat and potatoes drive and kick offense.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#535 » by Pillendreher » Sat Jun 8, 2019 7:21 am

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My life hasn't been the same since the last time I shouted "IBAKA".
"I don't know of any player that, when the shot goes up, he doesn't want it to go in," Donovan said
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#536 » by Pillendreher » Sat Jun 8, 2019 10:46 am

Toronto is also a good example of going for it instead of half-assing it. They have what we've been talking ourselves into: Injuries to the Warriors when they play them. And yet they didn't just try to work around the edges, but aquired both Gasol and most importantly Leonard in this season. Meanwhile, the biggest trade/free agency aquisitions of the Kevin Durant era were Anthony Morrow as a free agent and Kendrick Perkins as a traded for player.

Sigh.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#537 » by spearsy23 » Sat Jun 8, 2019 8:18 pm

Pillendreher wrote:Toronto is also a good example of going for it instead of half-assing it. They have what we've been talking ourselves into: Injuries to the Warriors when they play them. And yet they didn't just try to work around the edges, but aquired both Gasol and most importantly Leonard in this season. Meanwhile, the biggest trade/free agency aquisitions of the Kevin Durant era were Anthony Morrow as a free agent and Kendrick Perkins as a traded for player.

Sigh.

We tried to be Toronto, but Dennis Schroeder, jerami grant, and t Ferg aren't ibaka, gasol, and vanvleet.

And of course Russ having a large decline makes it impossible to correct for the quality of role players.
“If you're getting stops and you're making threes and the other team's not scoring, that's when you're going to see a huge point difference there,” coach Billy Donovan said.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#538 » by Pillendreher » Sat Jun 8, 2019 9:31 pm

spearsy23 wrote:
Pillendreher wrote:Toronto is also a good example of going for it instead of half-assing it. They have what we've been talking ourselves into: Injuries to the Warriors when they play them. And yet they didn't just try to work around the edges, but aquired both Gasol and most importantly Leonard in this season. Meanwhile, the biggest trade/free agency aquisitions of the Kevin Durant era were Anthony Morrow as a free agent and Kendrick Perkins as a traded for player.

Sigh.

We tried to be Toronto, but Dennis Schroeder, jerami grant, and t Ferg aren't ibaka, gasol, and vanvleet.

And of course Russ having a large decline makes it impossible to correct for the quality of role players.


We never tried to actually aquire good players. Waiters. Kanter. Grant. Melo. Schröder. Not a single one of them wasn't a project. And not a single one of them was worth the trade.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#539 » by ThunderBolt » Sat Jun 8, 2019 11:11 pm

Pretty simple. Masai > Sam....by a lot.
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Re: Around the NBA: 2018—19 

Post#540 » by Kizz Fastfists » Sun Jun 9, 2019 2:08 am

spearsy23 wrote:We tried to be Toronto, but Dennis Schroeder, jerami grant, and t Ferg aren't ibaka, gasol, and vanvleet.

And of course Russ having a large decline makes it impossible to correct for the quality of role players.


Toronto realized they couldn't win with Derozen so they packaged him for a better player that fit and they could win with. OKC's DeRozen is still on the roster, Russ. I do not recall Presti ever trying to move Russ for someone like Chris Paul, Lillard, Anthony Davis or anyone else that might have been able to win a championship next to kd.

OKC got rid of Ibaka and if Grant ever gets that good it is going to happen after Russ has declined too much to matter. Ferguson is a 20 year old kid and you are seriously comparing him to Marc Gasol who is a former all-star? Schroder to VanVleet is fine for a comparison, but Toronto signed him when he went undrafted they didn't give up multiple picks, shooters, etc to acquire him and Schroder is not now and will never be the shooter or defender that VanVleet is.

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