2019 NBA Finals Thread, Part 3: Golden State Warriors vs Toronto Raptors | SERIES TIED AT 1

[pingpongrac]

It's only one game - but I do feel that those of us who said that the Raptors/Bucks defense was a level above anything the Warriors had seen in the WC playoffs are at least somewhat validated.

Raptors were terrific on offense, they had a 126.1 Ortg, but the Warriors still had a 116.5 Ortg and a TS% of 59.5% in the game. The Raptors defense was good enough to win relative to their offensive production, but in a vacuum, that’s not the best defense against the Warriors in a whole game by any means. I won’t cite the Clippers series because the wins had little to do with defense and all to do with just outdoing the Warriors on offense. The Rockets for example though held the Warriors to 108.9 Ortg / 59.9 TS% in game 1, low Ortg was due to forcing 20 turnovers, but their offense wasn’t able to perform enough to get the win. In their game 4 win they held GS to 109.0 Ortg / 53.8 TS%. They lost game 5 giving up 111.4 Ortg / 56 TS%. All those are better whole game defense than what the Raptors did in game 1.

I think there’s some winning bias going on in the analysis that concludes that the Raptors did something defensively to the Warriors that no one else has been able to. Since they won, we then are going back to narrate the game in a specific way, but if the Warriors themselves could have gotten stops here and there and didn’t give up 126.1 Ortg / 64.8 TS%, they win. The Raptors defense only looked fairly good because they were scoring so much.

Now can the Raptors continue that offense? Well since Van Vleet found his shot, that’s a big boost to team offense. Those specific game 1 numbers are very high and unlikely to repeat for a series of course, but they have the capability to still be very good. The Bucks series was a slower pace than game 1, but if we look at the last three games of the Bucks series, Toronto had Game 4: 125.1 Ortg / 60.7 TS%, Game 5: 113.4 Ortg / 53.8 TS%, Game 6: 116.8 Ortg / 59.8 TS%.

So they came into game 1 averaging a 118.4 Ortg in their previous three games vs the Bucks.

A lot of those numbers can be attributed to FT shooting. GSW shot 21/27 in G1, 16/23 in G4 and 13/18 in G5 against HOU while they were 29/31 from the FT line in G1 against Toronto. That makes a pretty big difference and the rate at which the opposition converts FTs is entirely out of the defence's hands.

Sent from my LG-H831 using RealGM mobile app

[will]

LETS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

[Dr_Heat]

Let’s go Dinosaurs

[will]

Hopefully we get a Gasoline/Bogut duel.

Bring us back to 2010!!!!!

[D.Brasco]

[og15]

It's only one game - but I do feel that those of us who said that the Raptors/Bucks defense was a level above anything the Warriors had seen in the WC playoffs are at least somewhat validated.

Raptors were terrific on offense, they had a 126.1 Ortg, but the Warriors still had a 116.5 Ortg and a TS% of 59.5% in the game. The Raptors defense was good enough to win relative to their offensive production, but in a vacuum, that’s not the best defense against the Warriors in a whole game by any means. I won’t cite the Clippers series because the wins had little to do with defense and all to do with just outdoing the Warriors on offense. The Rockets for example though held the Warriors to 108.9 Ortg / 59.9 TS% in game 1, low Ortg was due to forcing 20 turnovers, but their offense wasn’t able to perform enough to get the win. In their game 4 win they held GS to 109.0 Ortg / 53.8 TS%. They lost game 5 giving up 111.4 Ortg / 56 TS%. All those are better whole game defense than what the Raptors did in game 1.

I think there’s some winning bias going on in the analysis that concludes that the Raptors did something defensively to the Warriors that no one else has been able to. Since they won, we then are going back to narrate the game in a specific way, but if the Warriors themselves could have gotten stops here and there and didn’t give up 126.1 Ortg / 64.8 TS%, they win. The Raptors defense only looked fairly good because they were scoring so much.

Now can the Raptors continue that offense? Well since Van Vleet found his shot, that’s a big boost to team offense. Those specific game 1 numbers are very high and unlikely to repeat for a series of course, but they have the capability to still be very good. The Bucks series was a slower pace than game 1, but if we look at the last three games of the Bucks series, Toronto had Game 4: 125.1 Ortg / 60.7 TS%, Game 5: 113.4 Ortg / 53.8 TS%, Game 6: 116.8 Ortg / 59.8 TS%.

So they came into game 1 averaging a 118.4 Ortg in their previous three games vs the Bucks.

A lot of those numbers can be attributed to FT shooting. GSW shot 21/27 in G1, 16/23 in G4 and 13/18 in G5 against HOU while they were 29/31 from the FT line in G1 against Toronto. That makes a pretty big difference and the rate at which the opposition converts FTs is entirely out of the defence's hands.

Sent from my LG-H831 using RealGM mobile app

The defense has slight control based on who they are fouling, now, of course how much you foul is part of defense. Curry shooting about half of GS's FT's, that never helps. Durant, Klay, Curry and Livingston were 20/23 (87%) in game 1 vs Houston but Iguodala was 1/4. Iguodala (58% FT regular season) didn't shoot any FT's vs the Raps in game 1, neither did McKinnie (56% FT regular season).

Game 4 vs Houston, Iguodala 0/2 and Green 3/5, so yes, Green was 6/6 vs Toronto, nothing you can do there, but Iguodala again, without him the Warriors shot 82%. Game 5 vs Houston, Iguodala was 1/2 and McKinnie was 1/2. So the lower percentages came primarily from their bad FT shooters.

Here are the eFG%, TOV%, FT/FGA:
Game 1 vs Houston: 55.3% / 18.7% /.280
Game 4 vs Houston: 51.1% / 9.9% /.178
Game 5 vs Houston: 53.5% / 13.9% /.153
Game 1 vs Toronto: 51.3% / 14.9% /. 372

Either way, we can't yet conclude that the Raptors are bringing a different level of defense on GS. Let's see what game 2 looks like though.

Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

[Young Stapler]

Let's go Charmanders!

Sent from my SM-N960U using RealGM mobile app

[Optms]

I've got the Dubs taking game 2 and then controlling this series there after. Wouldn't surprise me if game 2 is a blow out either.

[LoveMyRaps]

I love the effort but that mural is a C- at best. Looks like Ja Rule. Nothing like Kawhi at all.

[SFour]

I've got the Dubs taking game 2 and then controlling this series there after. Wouldn't surprise me if game 2 is a blow out either.

you better put money on Warriors +2 then...easy money

[everdiso]

Raptors were terrific on offense, they had a 126.1 Ortg, but the Warriors still had a 116.5 Ortg and a TS% of 59.5% in the game. The Raptors defense was good enough to win relative to their offensive production, but in a vacuum, that’s not the best defense against the Warriors in a whole game by any means. I won’t cite the Clippers series because the wins had little to do with defense and all to do with just outdoing the Warriors on offense. The Rockets for example though held the Warriors to 108.9 Ortg / 59.9 TS% in game 1, low Ortg was due to forcing 20 turnovers, but their offense wasn’t able to perform enough to get the win. In their game 4 win they held GS to 109.0 Ortg / 53.8 TS%. They lost game 5 giving up 111.4 Ortg / 56 TS%. All those are better whole game defense than what the Raptors did in game 1.

I think there’s some winning bias going on in the analysis that concludes that the Raptors did something defensively to the Warriors that no one else has been able to. Since they won, we then are going back to narrate the game in a specific way, but if the Warriors themselves could have gotten stops here and there and didn’t give up 126.1 Ortg / 64.8 TS%, they win. The Raptors defense only looked fairly good because they were scoring so much.

Now can the Raptors continue that offense? Well since Van Vleet found his shot, that’s a big boost to team offense. Those specific game 1 numbers are very high and unlikely to repeat for a series of course, but they have the capability to still be very good. The Bucks series was a slower pace than game 1, but if we look at the last three games of the Bucks series, Toronto had Game 4: 125.1 Ortg / 60.7 TS%, Game 5: 113.4 Ortg / 53.8 TS%, Game 6: 116.8 Ortg / 59.8 TS%.

So they came into game 1 averaging a 118.4 Ortg in their previous three games vs the Bucks.

A lot of those numbers can be attributed to FT shooting. GSW shot 21/27 in G1, 16/23 in G4 and 13/18 in G5 against HOU while they were 29/31 from the FT line in G1 against Toronto. That makes a pretty big difference and the rate at which the opposition converts FTs is entirely out of the defence's hands.

Sent from my LG-H831 using RealGM mobile app

The defense has slight control based on who they are fouling, now, of course how much you foul is part of defense. Curry shooting about half of GS's FT's, that never helps. Durant, Klay, Curry and Livingston were 20/23 (87%) in game 1 vs Houston but Iguodala was 1/4. Iguodala (58% FT regular season) didn't shoot any FT's vs the Raps in game 1, neither did McKinnie (56% FT regular season).

Game 4 vs Houston, Iguodala 0/2 and Green 3/5, so yes, Green was 6/6 vs Toronto, nothing you can do there, but Iguodala again, without him the Warriors shot 82%. Game 5 vs Houston, Iguodala was 1/2 and McKinnie was 1/2. So the lower percentages came primarily from their bad FT shooters.

Here are the eFG%, TOV%, FT/FGA:
Game 1 vs Houston: 55.3% / 18.7% /.280
Game 4 vs Houston: 51.1% / 9.9% /.178
Game 5 vs Houston: 53.5% / 13.9% /.153
Game 1 vs Toronto: 51.3% / 14.9% /. 372

Either way, we can't yet conclude that the Raptors are bringing a different level of defense on GS. Let's see what game 2 looks like though.

Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

I think it's the halfcourt offense stat you want to look at. That was where the Raptors D really did a number on them.

[VinBaker6]

I've got the Dubs taking game 2 and then controlling this series there after. Wouldn't surprise me if game 2 is a blow out either.

Warriors don't have the talent to keep up without KD. Raps in a blowout. This series is too easy man

[The Flying Gent]

Either way, we can't yet conclude that the Raptors are bringing a different level of defense on GS. Let's see what game 2 looks like though.


Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

I think we definitely can.

Here's an interesting article on how everyone including the Warriors keeps focusing on transition D when that really wasn't the most interesting or telling takeaway.

Listening to Kerr and Nurse, you would think that both of these teams were playing in mud when they weren't able to run. The trouble with that is that this isn't true: Golden State, despite all the attention Stephen Curry creates and all the ball movement its system demands, scored 83.9 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt on Thursday, which would rank dead last in the NBA if sustained over a full season. Toronto scored 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked first. That, not the transition game, was the real difference.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-finals-warriors-keep-talking-about-stopping-the-raptors-from-running-but-thats-not-the-whole-story/

So, in the halfcourt at least, the results indicate the Raptors absolutely were bringing a different level in game 1.

[og15]

Either way, we can't yet conclude that the Raptors are bringing a different level of defense on GS. Let's see what game 2 looks like though.


Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

I think we definitely can.

Here's an interesting article on how everyone including the Warriors keeps focusing on transition D when that really wasn't the most interesting or telling takeaway.

Listening to Kerr and Nurse, you would think that both of these teams were playing in mud when they weren't able to run. The trouble with that is that this isn't true: Golden State, despite all the attention Stephen Curry creates and all the ball movement its system demands, scored 83.9 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt on Thursday, which would rank dead last in the NBA if sustained over a full season. Toronto scored 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked first. That, not the transition game, was the real difference.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-finals-warriors-keep-talking-about-stopping-the-raptors-from-running-but-thats-not-the-whole-story/

So, in the halfcourt at least, the results indicate the Raptors absolutely were bringing a different level in game 1.

Good find. Both teams were really pushing the pace, so we'll see if that changes. If the Raptors can tighten up their transition defense, it definitely bodes well. I am certainly in agreement that personell wise they have the kind of combination of length, defensive talent and IQ that the Warriors have seen in some time.

Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

[tradejosehesux]

Without KD and a crippled Iggy, the Raps win game 2 easy, and if they’re both hurt as bad as everyone thinks, the series is over.

[ShotCreator]

Either way, we can't yet conclude that the Raptors are bringing a different level of defense on GS. Let's see what game 2 looks like though.


Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

I think we definitely can.

Here's an interesting article on how everyone including the Warriors keeps focusing on transition D when that really wasn't the most interesting or telling takeaway.

Listening to Kerr and Nurse, you would think that both of these teams were playing in mud when they weren't able to run. The trouble with that is that this isn't true: Golden State, despite all the attention Stephen Curry creates and all the ball movement its system demands, scored 83.9 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt on Thursday, which would rank dead last in the NBA if sustained over a full season. Toronto scored 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked first. That, not the transition game, was the real difference.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-finals-warriors-keep-talking-about-stopping-the-raptors-from-running-but-thats-not-the-whole-story/

So, in the halfcourt at least, the results indicate the Raptors absolutely were bringing a different level in game 1.

As someone who’s been rooting against GS across different teams(Rockets, Cavs) for the past several years, you Raps fans are now getting to see the insanity of how good they really are offensively.


Even when you feel they played great D, limited shots, forced TOV.

Prime example of what it looks like to “beat you in so many ways”. The Raps got killed in transition and on the boards. The Warriors deadly transition attack has been talked about for years. They won the 15 finals with it, and it's a very real part of defending them.


I will say I was impressed with Toronto’s half court defense but that’s just not enough.

[inquisitive]

With news of KD possibly returning whether true or not Makes it a must win game for Raptors as more motivation

[everdiso]

Either way, we can't yet conclude that the Raptors are bringing a different level of defense on GS. Let's see what game 2 looks like though.


Sent from my SM-G955W using RealGM mobile app

I think we definitely can.

Here's an interesting article on how everyone including the Warriors keeps focusing on transition D when that really wasn't the most interesting or telling takeaway.

Listening to Kerr and Nurse, you would think that both of these teams were playing in mud when they weren't able to run. The trouble with that is that this isn't true: Golden State, despite all the attention Stephen Curry creates and all the ball movement its system demands, scored 83.9 points per 100 possessions in the halfcourt on Thursday, which would rank dead last in the NBA if sustained over a full season. Toronto scored 109.4 points per 100 possessions, which would have ranked first. That, not the transition game, was the real difference.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/2019-nba-finals-warriors-keep-talking-about-stopping-the-raptors-from-running-but-thats-not-the-whole-story/

So, in the halfcourt at least, the results indicate the Raptors absolutely were bringing a different level in game 1.

As someone who’s been rooting against GS across different teams(Rockets, Cavs) for the past several years, you Raps fans are now getting to see the insanity of how good they really are offensively.


Even when you feel they played great D, limited shots, forced TOV.

Prime example of what it looks like to “beat you in so many ways”. The Raps got killed in transition and on the boards. The Warriors deadly transition attack has been talked about for years. They won the 15 finals with it, and it's a very real part of defending them.


I will say I was impressed with Toronto’s half court defense but that’s just not enough.

Warriors transition offense was great, but the raps transition offense was even better.

[Klayforspicy]

Toronto just has to keep running them off the 3pt line and give Curry his floaters and contested shots at the rim. Of course there will be leaks because Curry and Klay can hit threes with a high degree of difficulty, but limit those and you'll be in good shape.

There's no KD who can score consistently in isolation.

[Outside]

Based on some of these takes, you'd think the Raps held GS to 90 and won by 25.