Wizards 2019 Draft Thread - Part II

[Illmatic12]

Okay Brandon Clarke.. now he’s showing me something

That jumpshot is starting to look a lot more normal.. release point is higher and not so far out from his body.

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?s=21

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If he’s changed his jumpshot mechanics this much between now and the last time we saw him shooting, gotta say that is a credit in his favor in terms of being a hard worker and attentive to his faults


I was never crazy about his wingspan, but what bothered me the most was the lack of shooting . If he showcases an improved jumper I think Wizards brass may seriously consider Clarke at #9 , because I think the organizational philosophy is to find someone who can play right away and push for the 6th-8th seed next season (I’m higher on Sekou Doumbouya but he’s a 2000s baby and will probably get some G-League assignments early on).

We have to get away from the Jabari/Jeff Green-Thomas Bryant frontcourt that was awful defensively. Theoretically Clarke would pair well with Bryant as a dirty work guy who could clean up mistakes.

Sato/George Hill (MLE)
Beal/Hill/McCrae
Ariza/Brown
Clarke/Parker/Green
Bryant/Howard

Theoretically that should be a much better defensive squad than last years catastrophe. Surround Beal with a bunch of high IQ guys who know their role and hustle (and Jabari who is none of those things but can put up a quick 16-20pts and has cool dunks , so why not?) .. looks like a fun scrappy little team similar to what Oladipo has around him in Indy.

[Ruzious]

A guy for the Wizards to consider as an undrafted walk-on is Jordan Bone. I haven't seen him show up in any of the mocks.

He's the best athlete of the draft, with an insane lane agility of 9.97 (the best score in the past 10 years of NBA.com's database). He has a 36" standing vertical and a 42" max vertical, the fastest shuttle run, and the 4th fastest 3/4 sprint. He's short, but not too short for a PG. He's 6-3 with a 6-3 wingspan (about Steph Curry's size).

As a player, he showed a very impressive improvement on a yearly basis. These are per possession numbers. Improving that much on a per-possession basis is extremely tough to do:



He has worked his way into being a very good shooter and passer, and a reliable ball handler with minimal turnovers. The biggest blemish is the lack of free throw attempts.

A guy with that much athleticism who works that hard on his game is the kind of guy I'd like at the end of the bench as a practice player with the potential to break his way into the league.

Nice. Here's a link to a detailed scouting report on him. https://www.peachtreehoops.com/2019/5/12/18566430/jordan-bone-2019-nba-draft-scouting-report-atlanta-hawks-tennessee Seems that he might have had even more offensive production except he was only 3rd in usage on his team - despite playin the point.

[Gig18]

Okay Brandon Clarke.. now he’s showing me something

That jumpshot is starting to look a lot more normal.. release point is higher and not so far out from his body.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Read on Twitter

?s=21

If he’s changed his jumpshot mechanics this much between now and the last time we saw him shooting, gotta say that is a credit in his favor in terms of being a hard worker and attentive to his faults


I was never crazy about his wingspan, but what bothered me the most was the lack of shooting . If he showcases an improved jumper I think Wizards brass may seriously consider Clarke at #9 , because I think the organizational philosophy is to find someone who can play right away and push for the 6th-8th seed next season (I’m higher on Sekou Doumbouya but he’s a 2000s baby and will probably get some G-League assignments early on).

We have to get away from the Jabari/Jeff Green-Thomas Bryant frontcourt that was awful defensively. Theoretically Clarke would pair well with Bryant as a dirty work guy who could clean up mistakes.

Sato/George Hill (MLE)
Beal/Hill/McCrae
Ariza/Brown
Clarke/Parker/Green
Bryant/Howard

Theoretically that should be a much better defensive squad than last years catastrophe. Surround Beal with a bunch of high IQ guys who know their role and hustle (and Jabari who is none of those things but can put up a quick 16-20pts and has cool dunks , so why not?) .. looks like a fun scrappy little team similar to what Oladipo has around him in Indy.

Looks good, but that's a pretty low release point. Looks like he's shooting from his chin.

[Illmatic12]

But this is how his jumper looked a few weeks back

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Definitely looks like he’s been working on raising his release and putting more arc on the shot

[80sballboy]

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[nate33]

Sato/George Hill (MLE)
Beal/Hill/McCrae
Ariza/Brown
Clarke/Parker/Green
Bryant/Howard

Theoretically that should be a much better defensive squad than last years catastrophe. Surround Beal with a bunch of high IQ guys who know their role and hustle (and Jabari who is none of those things but can put up a quick 16-20pts and has cool dunks , so why not?) .. looks like a fun scrappy little team similar to what Oladipo has around him in Indy.

Kidding aside, the Clarke/Parker tandem at PF is what I'm thinking too. Brandon Clarke with a half-decent catch-and-shoot 3-point ball would be a very good fit with the starters because he's defense first and will help shore up the so-so defense of Bryant. Parker off the bench provides scoring punch, and if Parker ever works up to being a two way player, he could be a star.

I'm not thrilled about adding both Hill and Ariza to the mix, that's a lot of old dudes with no future. If there's luxtax room available after signing Parker, Bryant and Sato, I'd lean toward a younger guy like Ruzious' suggestion of Mudiay, or Dat2U's suggestion of Vonleh.

With our salary cap situation, the only old dudes with no future I want to pay are guys who will sign for the vet minimum.

[payitforward]

You mentioned Brandon Clarke, ...The closest record to Clarke based on the Euclidean distance algorithm was Channing Frye.

...in no sense did Channing Frye "put up similar numbers" to Brandon Clarke "before entering the draft." Clarke's 15% better TS%, 25% more rebounds per 40 minutes, 50% more blocks, 40% more steals, etc. render the phrase "similar statistical profiles" meaningless.

The quantitative value of their numbers overall (weighting a few things differently from others -- e.g. defensive boards & assists have half the value of offensive boards or steals. Fouls have half the negative value of turnovers) is also enormously different. Brandon Clarke was a way way better player than Frye "before entering the draft."...

Well, could that essentially be a testament as to how good of a player Clarke is? ...

Absolutely. I rate him the 2d or 3d best player in this draft (w/ Morant being the variable -- either just above or just below Clarke).

[payitforward]

...Are you saying that blocks, steals, turnovers, should be weighted higher? I agree and think that's actually pretty interesting and something I'm going to try. There is indeed an option to weigh each column differently for the Euclidean distance algorithm. How would you weigh each category?

Absolutely! They have different effects on the game. Try these weights...

Positive:
Point = 1
Offensive rebound = 1
Defensive rebound = .5
Steal = 1
Assist = .5
Block = .5

Negative:
FGA = -1
FTA = -.4
TO = -1
PF = -.5

...& lets see what you come up with.

I assume you are doing this all per some number of minutes -- i.e. not per game -- or else using total minutes & then adjusting between players based on the difference in minutes.

Also, I assume you are not also doing % stats. I.e. TS% or 2pt FG%, 3pt FG%, etc. If you use those then your result will multiply the effect of the different raw numbers (which, obviously, are the basis of the %s).

[Gig18]

Okay Brandon Clarke.. now he’s showing me something

That jumpshot is starting to look a lot more normal.. release point is higher and not so far out from his body.

Read on Twitter

?s=21

Read on Twitter

?s=21

If he’s changed his jumpshot mechanics this much between now and the last time we saw him shooting, gotta say that is a credit in his favor in terms of being a hard worker and attentive to his faults


I was never crazy about his wingspan, but what bothered me the most was the lack of shooting . If he showcases an improved jumper I think Wizards brass may seriously consider Clarke at #9 , because I think the organizational philosophy is to find someone who can play right away and push for the 6th-8th seed next season (I’m higher on Sekou Doumbouya but he’s a 2000s baby and will probably get some G-League assignments early on).

We have to get away from the Jabari/Jeff Green-Thomas Bryant frontcourt that was awful defensively. Theoretically Clarke would pair well with Bryant as a dirty work guy who could clean up mistakes.


Sato/George Hill (MLE)
Beal/Hill/McCrae
Ariza/Brown
Clarke/Parker/Green
Bryant/Howard

Theoretically that should be a much better defensive squad than last years catastrophe. Surround Beal with a bunch of high IQ guys who know their role and hustle (and Jabari who is none of those things but can put up a quick 16-20pts and has cool dunks , so why not?) .. looks like a fun scrappy little team similar to what Oladipo has around him in Indy.

the way he shoots from the outside reminds me of joakim noah.
but Noah was 6'11" with a 7'1" reach, i think.

[payitforward]

I hope this deal happens. I think the Knicks would be less likely to take someone we want. I think the Knicks are more in win now mode, thinking they will sign a couple of max players.

I could definitely see the Hawks taking Sekou at 8.

Yes I expect Sekou will be taken at #8. He’s getting Pascal Siakam comparisons

In that case I’d trade down from #9 if possible. But sadly Wiz will likely be stuck with Nassir Little.

Nassir Little? Yuck!

Have you seen anything that makes you believe the Wizards are leaning that way? There is very little in his track record to suggest he is top 10 draft material. He's a pretty good rebounder, but other than that, he's not a very good player. If he had enough length to play PF, one could overlook his poor shooting and basketball instincts, but he is a SF.

Little is a supreme run-jump athlete. He wasn't good as a college freshman, but apparently he played well at the Combine. He's going up in the draft week by week lately.

Nassir Little is a perfect example of a college prospect I would never draft. Well... maybe in R2. Or, maybe if I had 4 picks. I.e. he is a high ceiling / low floor type (though I hate that way of putting it -- why not just say you have no idea how he's going to turn out?).

Personally, I think Tommy Sheppard is too smart to take him. I'm just hoping Tommy is smart enough to trade down, & that Boston will give us their 14 & 20 or 22 -- & 51 too!!

[payitforward]

Thanks!

Every player's record in the database consists of the following numbers:

FG, FGA, FG%, 2P, 2PA, 2P%, 3P, 3PA, 3P%, FT, FTA, FT%, ORB, DRB, TRB, AST, STL, BLK, TOV, PF, PTS,TS%, and WS.

The Euclidean distance algorithm basically measures the distance of one record (or array in computer terms) from another. ...

Essentially, the whole purpose of the tool is to find the most similar statistical profiles to any given player and not necessarily to draw comparisons.

What might be worthwhile would be to examine which stats tend to translate in the pro's and which stats do not. For example, defensive rebounding is well known to transfer, but 3P% does not. (Indeed, college FT% is a better indicator of pro 3P% than college 3P% is.)

Also, I strongly suggest you use per possession numbers and not per game numbers. The college game has much wider variations in team pace so the box score numbers for a slow paced team looks much worse than they do for a fast paced team.

Examining the stats that tend to translate best might enable you to pick guys who were more likely to succeed, but it doesn't give you what Wizzy is after -- info about who is similar to whom. Of course... the way he's doing it doesn't give you that either!

Absolutely, it has to be done by 100 possessions, or else by 40 minutes, or, better, do it by both. Then track results, use experience, & come up with an algorithm to weight the two measures in combination.

edit:

Finally, how are you handing age? Are you factoring that a college freshman is likely to improve a good deal more than a college senior?

I think this is worth examining, as I'd guess it's a commonly cited justification for drafting younger players.

I can't see how this could be false: improvement by college freshmen as against seniors is likely to show wider variation. Those who improve the most will improve much more than college seniors. But, the other statement... I wonder whether it's true. Plus, what does the wider variation do to the chances of getting a good player by drafting a freshman vs. a senior (not exactly your question, I know).

Of course... if the best players are drafted after their freshman year this too will affect the result of such a study. Dang the world is a complicated place.

[WizarDynasty]

There is no way this board doesnt have Hachinura from a pure talent standpoint ranked higher than number 4 overall. He has amazing landing mechanics knee preservation. Outstanding coordination and power. If he is there the wizards take him without question. Please board adjust your analysis has if he is gone. I amtired of seeing nasir little , hayes.' Doum, and semanic picked before him. This team does not have a starting playoff caliber bigman and. If hachi is there, which he wont be, then how do we get next Siakam. Doum looks ok but he is not close to sae league as Hachi. Hachi is basically James Worthy clone. That's what type of player this team needs. Ujiri is best gm and i guarantee he saw james worthyin Siakam secretly. Same with ha cnn hi. Maybe there is another james worthy gem hidden in the draft. But you have to admire james worthy to recognize younger versions of him hidden in n the draft. Watch worthy highlights to dissect traits we need at pf position realgm wiz board member now go youtube and spend and hour. Then re evaluate doumb.. and other big. men because skill and athlticism at 4 motor coordination and awareness.

[gravytrain24]

There is no way this board doesnt have Hachinura from a pure talent standpoint ranked higher than number 4 overall. He has amazing landing mechanics knee preservation. Outstanding coordination and power. If he is there the wizards take him without question. Please board adjust your analysis has if he is gone. I amtired of seeing nasir little , hayes.' Doum, and semanic picked before him. This team does not have a starting playoff caliber bigman and. If hachi is there, which he wont be, then how do we get next Siakam. Doum looks ok but he is not close to sae league as Hachi. Hachi is basically James Worthy clone. That's what type of player this team needs. Ujiri is best gm and i guarantee he saw james worthyin Siakam secretly. Same with ha cnn hi. Maybe there is another james worthy gem hidden in the draft. But you have to admire james worthy to recognize younger versions of him hidden in n the draft. Watch worthy highlights to dissect traits we need at pf position realgm wiz board member now go youtube and spend and hour. Then re evaluate doumb.. and other big. men because skill and athlticism at 4 motor coordination and awareness.

I like Hachimura a lot but without a GM to determine our new playing style, i don't know if they would take him. I think he can be a solid pro, nothing to flashy, just gets the job done. To me his player comparison is Nene. I think you can trade to down to 14 and still get him and other picks tho.

[Dat2U]

Yes I expect Sekou will be taken at #8. He’s getting Pascal Siakam comparisons

In that case I’d trade down from #9 if possible. But sadly Wiz will likely be stuck with Nassir Little.

Nassir Little? Yuck!

Have you seen anything that makes you believe the Wizards are leaning that way? There is very little in his track record to suggest he is top 10 draft material. He's a pretty good rebounder, but other than that, he's not a very good player. If he had enough length to play PF, one could overlook his poor shooting and basketball instincts, but he is a SF.

Little is a supreme run-jump athlete. He wasn't good as a college freshman, but apparently he played well at the Combine. He's going up in the draft week by week lately.

Nassir Little is a perfect example of a college prospect I would never draft. Well... maybe in R2. Or, maybe if I had 4 picks. I.e. he is a high ceiling / low floor type (though I hate that way of putting it -- why not just say you have no idea how he's going to turn out?).

Personally, I think Tommy Sheppard is too smart to take him. I'm just hoping Tommy is smart enough to trade down, & that Boston will give us their 14 & 20 or 22 -- & 51 too!!

I disagree on Little having a high ceiling. It's a common mistake to associate athleticism with upside but real upside is based on skill & IQ and Little doesn't have much of either.

Little is a small ball 4. That was literally the only time he had moments of success at UNC, when they put him at the 4 and simplified the things he was asked to do. His best skill is his motor.

The team the drafts Little is basically drafting an energy guy and elite athlete with no real position.

I'd prefer him to Reddish, Porter Jr. & Langford but that's faint praise.

[Dat2U]

There is no way this board doesnt have Hachinura from a pure talent standpoint ranked higher than number 4 overall. He has amazing landing mechanics knee preservation. Outstanding coordination and power. If he is there the wizards take him without question. Please board adjust your analysis has if he is gone. I amtired of seeing nasir little , hayes.' Doum, and semanic picked before him. This team does not have a starting playoff caliber bigman and. If hachi is there, which he wont be, then how do we get next Siakam. Doum looks ok but he is not close to sae league as Hachi. Hachi is basically James Worthy clone. That's what type of player this team needs. Ujiri is best gm and i guarantee he saw james worthyin Siakam secretly. Same with ha cnn hi. Maybe there is another james worthy gem hidden in the draft. But you have to admire james worthy to recognize younger versions of him hidden in n the draft. Watch worthy highlights to dissect traits we need at pf position realgm wiz board member now go youtube and spend and hour. Then re evaluate doumb.. and other big. men because skill and athlticism at 4 motor coordination and awareness.

A PF that doesn't rebound and has poor defensive awareness? Pass. You see worthy. I see a Mike Scott without the edge or tattoos.

[Dat2U]

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Doumbouya strikes me as a tease and the lack of awareness is still prevelant on D

He does have legit potential but this I do not see a Pascal Siakam type work ethic. More like Kevin Seraphin to be honest. His development has ebbed and flowed over the last few years. Scouts in Europe have been disappointed by him as in their eyes, he has top pick potential.

Maybe if he goes to a franchise that keeps a fire to his ass, he might be good. But under the EG era, I have to think he'd be a good chance to bust with the lack of accountability.

I'm still on the trade down bandwagon regardless of who is at 9. I could see Ainge wanting to take a chance with Doumbouya.

[Shoe]

Read on Twitter

Doumbouya strikes me as a tease and the lack of awareness is still prevelant on D

He does have legit potential but this I do not see a Pascal Siakam type work ethic. More like Kevin Seraphin to be honest. His development has ebbed and flowed over the last few years. Scouts in Europe have been disappointed by him as in their eyes, he has top pick potential.

Maybe if he goes to a franchise that keeps a fire to his ass, he might be good. But under the EG era, I have to think he'd be a good chance to bust with the lack of accountability.

I'm still on the trade down bandwagon regardless of who is at 9. I could see Ainge wanting to take a chance with Doumbouya.

That guy is completely wrong though. Sekous teammate even points to him to rotate and cover 77. If anything it shows sekous defensive potential - big enough to fill the lane and agile enough to jump out onto the perimeter. Seraphin was a 22 year old, undersized, below the rim plodder. I'm pretty sure sekou is 17 in this video.

[Shoe]

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Sekou has made some some great one handed passes.

[nate33]

There is no way this board doesnt have Hachinura from a pure talent standpoint ranked higher than number 4 overall. He has amazing landing mechanics knee preservation. Outstanding coordination and power. If he is there the wizards take him without question. Please board adjust your analysis has if he is gone. I amtired of seeing nasir little , hayes.' Doum, and semanic picked before him. This team does not have a starting playoff caliber bigman and. If hachi is there, which he wont be, then how do we get next Siakam. Doum looks ok but he is not close to sae league as Hachi. Hachi is basically James Worthy clone. That's what type of player this team needs. Ujiri is best gm and i guarantee he saw james worthyin Siakam secretly. Same with ha cnn hi. Maybe there is another james worthy gem hidden in the draft. But you have to admire james worthy to recognize younger versions of him hidden in n the draft. Watch worthy highlights to dissect traits we need at pf position realgm wiz board member now go youtube and spend and hour. Then re evaluate doumb.. and other big. men because skill and athlticism at 4 motor coordination and awareness.

A PF that doesn't rebound and has poor defensive awareness? Pass. You see worthy. I see a Mike Scott without the edge or tattoos.

... or 3-point range.

[payitforward]

Nassir Little? Yuck!

Have you seen anything that makes you believe the Wizards are leaning that way? There is very little in his track record to suggest he is top 10 draft material. He's a pretty good rebounder, but other than that, he's not a very good player. If he had enough length to play PF, one could overlook his poor shooting and basketball instincts, but he is a SF.

Little is a supreme run-jump athlete. He wasn't good as a college freshman, but apparently he played well at the Combine. He's going up in the draft week by week lately.

Nassir Little is a perfect example of a college prospect I would never draft. Well... maybe in R2. Or, maybe if I had 4 picks. I.e. he is a high ceiling / low floor type (though I hate that way of putting it -- why not just say you have no idea how he's going to turn out?).

Personally, I think Tommy Sheppard is too smart to take him. I'm just hoping Tommy is smart enough to trade down, & that Boston will give us their 14 & 20 or 22 -- & 51 too!!

I disagree on Little having a high ceiling. It's a common mistake to associate athleticism with upside but real upside is based on skill & IQ and Little doesn't have much of either.

Little is a small ball 4. That was literally the only time he had moments of success at UNC, when they put him at the 4 and simplified the things he was asked to do. His best skill is his motor.

The team the drafts Little is basically drafting an energy guy and elite athlete with no real position.

I'd prefer him to Reddish, Porter Jr. & Langford but that's faint praise.

I don't disagree, dat. I don't want the guy. High ceiling is a speculative term, that's all: if you start with great athleticism, then *if* you learn the game you can go far. That's all.