2019 Draft Thread Volume #6 - Post Lottery

[Red Larrivee]

Who are the stars that don't have great physical traits and/or skill sets? Yes, the physical traits and skill sets are the #1 and #2 draftable issues. Cam excels in both of those. He struggles at translating those factors into his game situations at Duke consistently.

The analogy works for Cam. If the carpenter was introduced to the right teacher, he could learn how to build a playable violin, maybe even a great one. And he has the potential to build a better violin as compared to most of the other potential violin builders (except for 6 to 7!)

Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler are some players who don't have great physical traits and became all stars or better.

Struggling at translating skills into game situations is a monumental red flag. That means...you don't really have a great skillset. There comes a time where not being able to do that negates any natural talent you possess.

Reddish has ideal size and length for the position, but that's really it. I don't know why we're talking about him like he's some freak of a talent athletically.

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[panthermark]

Who are the stars that don't have great physical traits and/or skill sets? Yes, the physical traits and skill sets are the #1 and #2 draftable issues. Cam excels in both of those. He struggles at translating those factors into his game situations at Duke consistently.

The analogy works for Cam. If the carpenter was introduced to the right teacher, he could learn how to build a playable violin, maybe even a great one. And he has the potential to build a better violin as compared to most of the other potential violin builders (except for 6 to 7!)

The problem with your new analogy is that the Cam's issues (at least in college) is that he was UNABLE to learn how to build a playable violin. It did not matter how great the teacher was, because for whatever reason, his skill/traits did not translate.

Right now, the goal is to figure out WHY he bombed so badly in college. The red flag for me is what I'll call "talent equalization". By that I mean, he was no longer way bigger, faster, and stronger than the guy guarding him. He has a silky jumper in an empty gym, but when there is a 21 year old, 6'7 junior at another high level D-1 school defending him..that does not give a crap about what Cam did in high school...is that where we see the breakdown? I don't know. I'm just trying to figure out what the hell happened.

[cjbulls]

Who are the stars that don't have great physical traits and/or skill sets? Yes, the physical traits and skill sets are the #1 and #2 draftable issues. Cam excels in both of those. He struggles at translating those factors into his game situations at Duke consistently.

The analogy works for Cam. If the carpenter was introduced to the right teacher, he could learn how to build a playable violin, maybe even a great one. And he has the potential to build a better violin as compared to most of the other potential violin builders (except for 6 to 7!)

Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler are some players who don't have great physical traits and became all stars or better.

Struggling at translating skills into game situations is a monumental red flag. That means...you don't really have a great skillset. There comes a time where not being able to do that negates any natural talent you possess.

Reddish has ideal size and length for the position, but that's really it. I don't know why we're talking about him like he's some freak of a talent athletically.

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Umm, all of those players are the prototypical size for their position except for Paul. And they all have elite traits whether is shooting, passing or ball handling. The exception is Jimmy Butler, who like Paul George, don’t have any elite traits but are really good at a lot of things (including defense, which the rest of the others are lacking). Cam fits into that ladder profile on the high-end. On the low end it’s Jeff Green or Otto Porter.

[cjbulls]

Who are the stars that don't have great physical traits and/or skill sets? Yes, the physical traits and skill sets are the #1 and #2 draftable issues. Cam excels in both of those. He struggles at translating those factors into his game situations at Duke consistently.

The analogy works for Cam. If the carpenter was introduced to the right teacher, he could learn how to build a playable violin, maybe even a great one. And he has the potential to build a better violin as compared to most of the other potential violin builders (except for 6 to 7!)

The problem with your new analogy is that the Cam's issues (at least in college) is that he was UNABLE to learn how to build a playable violin. It did not matter how great the teacher was, because for whatever reason, his skill/traits did not translate.

Right now, the goal is to figure out WHY he bombed so badly in college. The red flag for me is what I'll call "talent equalization". By that I mean, he was no longer way bigger, faster, and stronger than the guy guarding him. He has a silky jumper in an empty gym, but when there is a 21 year old, 6'7 junior at another high level D-1 school defending him..that does not give a crap about what Cam did in high school...is that where we see the breakdown? I don't know. I'm just trying to figure out what the hell happened.

I don't see how you can make that determination on a freshman kid. Especially without getting more info from his coaches, etc. If true, yes that would be a factor. But I haven 't seen any of that in the way you've heard rumors on Porter, Bol, etc.

[JohnnyTapwater]

Michael Redd shot 31% from 3 in college.

Shot 38% from 3 in the NBA.

He's a virgo.

This is a case for the, 19 year old virgo, Cam Reddish.

I don't see why it's not plausible that he would improve with that repeatable stroke. He's going to mature mentally and work on it. I can guarantee that.

Michael Redd was drafted in the second round. He's one of the all-time second round steals. Cam Reddish is going to be selected in the lottery.

Every selling point about Cam seems to rely on hoping he becomes an anomaly. That just isn't a good thought process. There's a long list of talented players who had ideal physical tools, but were poor at actually playing basketball. We traded LaMarcus Aldridge for one of them.

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My point is...

It's an actual precedence for a poor shooter in college to improve in the pros.

What if Cam does become Michael Reddish?...

[panthermark]

Who are the stars that don't have great physical traits and/or skill sets? Yes, the physical traits and skill sets are the #1 and #2 draftable issues. Cam excels in both of those. He struggles at translating those factors into his game situations at Duke consistently.

The analogy works for Cam. If the carpenter was introduced to the right teacher, he could learn how to build a playable violin, maybe even a great one. And he has the potential to build a better violin as compared to most of the other potential violin builders (except for 6 to 7!)

The problem with your new analogy is that the Cam's issues (at least in college) is that he was UNABLE to learn how to build a playable violin. It did not matter how great the teacher was, because for whatever reason, his skill/traits did not translate.

Right now, the goal is to figure out WHY he bombed so badly in college. The red flag for me is what I'll call "talent equalization". By that I mean, he was no longer way bigger, faster, and stronger than the guy guarding him. He has a silky jumper in an empty gym, but when there is a 21 year old, 6'7 junior at another high level D-1 school defending him..that does not give a crap about what Cam did in high school...is that where we see the breakdown? I don't know. I'm just trying to figure out what the hell happened.

I don't see how you can make that determination on a freshman kid. Especially without getting more info from his coaches, etc. If true, yes that would be a factor. But I haven 't seen any of that in the way you've heard rumors on Porter, Bol, etc.

It is an assumed explanation based on the specific analogy given.

Maybe he can learn, but if so...why didn't he?

What he really needs is to go back to school for another year. He came into the season as a top 3 pick. He has fallen to 8th in a weak draft. The only thing keeping him that high is his HS resume, his measurements, and his jumper in an empty gym. A bad freshmen year isn't unusual...it would be nice if another year would show that the bad year really was just a blip.

[panthermark]

My point is...

It's an actual precedence for a poor shooter in college to improve in the pros.

What if Cam does become Michael Reddish?...

It's possible. If Cam is there at #38, I say we grab him and take the gamble.

[Ball4life32]

Michael Redd shot 31% from 3 in college.

Shot 38% from 3 in the NBA.

He's a virgo.

This is a case for the, 19 year old virgo, Cam Reddish.

I don't see why it's not plausible that he would improve with that repeatable stroke. He's going to mature mentally and work on it. I can guarantee that.

Michael Redd was drafted in the second round. He's one of the all-time second round steals. Cam Reddish is going to be selected in the lottery.

Every selling point about Cam seems to rely on hoping he becomes an anomaly. That just isn't a good thought process. There's a long list of talented players who had ideal physical tools, but were poor at actually playing basketball. We traded LaMarcus Aldridge for one of them.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

My point is...

It's an actual precedence for a poor shooter in college to improve in the pros.

What if Cam does become Michael Reddish?...

Middleton also only shot 26% from 3 as a junior and was a career 31% from 3 in college. Of course he was 2nd rounder too. But not sure why people just look at the %’s and not the volume.

Reddish shot 33.3% on 7.1 attempts per game and made a total of 89 3’s which was 4th in the ACC.

Total 3’s:
Reddish 89 (1 year)
Middleton 92 (3 years)
Redd 126 (3 years)

I still think Reddish can an above average/elite shooter in the right role and a big reason why i want him on the Hawks.

[cjbulls]

The problem with your new analogy is that the Cam's issues (at least in college) is that he was UNABLE to learn how to build a playable violin. It did not matter how great the teacher was, because for whatever reason, his skill/traits did not translate.

Right now, the goal is to figure out WHY he bombed so badly in college. The red flag for me is what I'll call "talent equalization". By that I mean, he was no longer way bigger, faster, and stronger than the guy guarding him. He has a silky jumper in an empty gym, but when there is a 21 year old, 6'7 junior at another high level D-1 school defending him..that does not give a crap about what Cam did in high school...is that where we see the breakdown? I don't know. I'm just trying to figure out what the hell happened.

I don't see how you can make that determination on a freshman kid. Especially without getting more info from his coaches, etc. If true, yes that would be a factor. But I haven 't seen any of that in the way you've heard rumors on Porter, Bol, etc.

It is an assumed explanation based on the specific analogy given.

Maybe he can learn, but if so...why didn't he?

What he really needs is to go back to school for another year. He came into the season as a top 3 pick. He has fallen to 8th in a weak draft. The only thing keeping him that high is his HS resume, his measurements, and his jumper in an empty gym. A bad freshmen year isn't unusual...it would be nice if another year would show that the bad year really was just a blip.

You just described what is good for you as a talent evaluator. Its probably better from a financial standpoint to just come out now and get picked 8th (his most likely spot). And from a development standpoint it’s not clear. I would say it depends on what team drafts him and the environment they foster for him. There are definitely scenarios where returning to Duke could improve his shot selection and confidence.

[cjbulls]

Sounds like the Suns are going PG in the draft:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

[23-7]

Sounds like the Suns are going PG in the draft:

Read on Twitter

?s=20

The Suns basically are a Bulls clone. Want same prospects, FA and Trades

[Southpaw]

Thoughts on Horton-Tucker for our 2nd round pick? I don't know a lot about the kid but he has intriguing physical profile.

[panthermark]

Middleton also only shot 26% from 3 as a junior and was a career 31% from 3 in college. Of course he was 2nd rounder too. But not sure why people just look at the %’s and not the volume.

Reddish shot 33.3% on 7.1 attempts per game and made a total of 89 3’s which was 4th in the ACC.

Total 3’s:
Reddish 89 (1 year)
Middleton 92 (3 years)
Redd 126 (3 years)

I still think Reddish can an above average/elite shooter in the right role and a big reason why i want him on the Hawks.

That is fine...and you are in a better position to gamble (#8 and #10) than we are (just #7).
But let me ask....what's the right role for him?
I really don't know. Spot up shooter? High usage? Hard to tell with him.

[Pnjguy]

Put me in the camp with the Reddish believers.

Put him in an NBA spacing environment with an actual point guard and he will flourish. I'll be pretty upset if we pass him at #7.

Now, getting an actual point guard.......

[JohnnyTapwater]

Who would be on-board if OKC packaged the 21st pick to salary dump Dennis Schroder?

I like it because we'd get a PG and we'd be able to draft Thybulle while keeping all of our picks hopefully.

[MeloRoseNoah]

Who would be on-board if OKC packaged the 21st pick to salary dump Dennis Schroder?

I like it because we'd get a PG and we'd be able to draft Thybulle while keeping all of our picks hopefully.

I would totally be up for that trade.

[BahamaBull]

Thoughts on Horton-Tucker for our 2nd round pick? I don't know a lot about the kid but he has intriguing physical profile.

Good option but I dont think he will be there though.

[panthermark]

After looking a bit more....I have even more doubts.
I'm trying to figure out Cam's role. It might be as a 3&D player. If he can defend, he can find a spot in the league.

Some of his weaknesses in High school are pretty bad in terms of offensive NBA potential (this was from November of 2017). Reading this now (after his season at Duke), the whole "looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane" comment makes more sense.
But I'll say it again....it could be "talent equalization"..


https://www.thestepien.com/cameron-reddish/

STRENGTHS
VERSATILITY:

Plays PG for his HS and AAU team and handled ball handling duties for US u19 team as well. Not amazing vision but his handle allows him to make plays for others and himself. Able to bring the ball up even against pressure.
Very fluid and coordinated, doesn’t look out of place at any position 1-4. Will find open man, comfortable making pass off dribble, keeps his head up, likes to draw and kick
Shot selection needs work but he has excellent range on his 3 point shoot, already comfortable from NBA range. Quick release.
Gets low to the ground with his handle, flexible, has serious moves off the dribble. Live dribble counters, can stop on a dime and pull up or use size and craft to get all the way. Handle doesn’t slow him down at all, in open court situation, his top speed is pretty good.
When feet are set and he goes up with balance he is a knockdown shooter. Low 3pt percentages seem to be more a product of role and shot selection. Hand down, man down from out to 30 feet, can really provide great spacing in modern game.
PHYSICAL TOOLS:

6’7 with 7’1 wing span, in one AAU game defended Marvin Bagley and the opposing team’s PG about half the time each. Battled Bagley for post position, good job of denial.
Excellent anticipation and timing to go along with length, absolutely a terror in foul court press, traps and passing lanes.
His wingspan and size even allows him to be a threat as a rim protector. Good rebounder as well.
Not huge but solid frame, can play some small ball 4, does well with contact, fights for rebounds, can post up, understands positioning.
All-NBA defensive potential, super versatile but active with quick hands as well. Length allows him to cover huge distance.
WEAKNESSES
AVERAGE BURST/EXPLOSIVENESS:

Not explosive finisher, gets to the basket with handle and skill more than athletic ability. Doesn’t really get up as much as you’d expect with his length, struggles to finish in tight spaces and over length.
Just average first step, his tendency to settle for jumpers is partly explained by inability to beat guys to spots, just average quickness. More fluid/smooth than quick twitch.
SHOT SELECTION/DECISION MAKING:

Loves pull up 3s, took more 3 pointers than anyone else in EYBL this season but shot less than 30%. Serious tendency to take zero pass pull up 3s, about 5 per game
Often has poor balance on pull ups, tends to lean or fade instead of going straight up.
Still learning how to run PnR, not too many advanced reads
Not always aggressive, some have questioned his motor but I think may have to do with just overall approach/mentality. Avoids contact.
OVERALL
Super versatile forward with elite defensive potential but does he have the first step, explosiveness and decision making to be a primary option offensively?

— Mike Gribanov, 11.1.17

[Red Larrivee]

Who are the stars that don't have great physical traits and/or skill sets? Yes, the physical traits and skill sets are the #1 and #2 draftable issues. Cam excels in both of those. He struggles at translating those factors into his game situations at Duke consistently.

The analogy works for Cam. If the carpenter was introduced to the right teacher, he could learn how to build a playable violin, maybe even a great one. And he has the potential to build a better violin as compared to most of the other potential violin builders (except for 6 to 7!)

Nikola Jokic, Stephen Curry, Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving, and Jimmy Butler are some players who don't have great physical traits and became all stars or better.

Struggling at translating skills into game situations is a monumental red flag. That means...you don't really have a great skillset. There comes a time where not being able to do that negates any natural talent you possess.

Reddish has ideal size and length for the position, but that's really it. I don't know why we're talking about him like he's some freak of a talent athletically.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

Umm, all of those players are the prototypical size for their position except for Paul. And they all have elite traits whether is shooting, passing or ball handling. The exception is Jimmy Butler, who like Paul George, don’t have any elite traits but are really good at a lot of things (including defense, which the rest of the others are lacking). Cam fits into that ladder profile on the high-end. On the low end it’s Jeff Green or Otto Porter.

Since when do any of those players have elite physical traits? Nikola Jokic is slow and looks like he eats Bojangles before games. Jimmy is 6'7 with merely a 6'8 wingspan. Those players are not good because of physical advantages, nor were they drafted by ignoring statistics and projecting physical traits.

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[Red Larrivee]

Michael Redd shot 31% from 3 in college.

Shot 38% from 3 in the NBA.

He's a virgo.

This is a case for the, 19 year old virgo, Cam Reddish.

I don't see why it's not plausible that he would improve with that repeatable stroke. He's going to mature mentally and work on it. I can guarantee that.

Michael Redd was drafted in the second round. He's one of the all-time second round steals. Cam Reddish is going to be selected in the lottery.

Every selling point about Cam seems to rely on hoping he becomes an anomaly. That just isn't a good thought process. There's a long list of talented players who had ideal physical tools, but were poor at actually playing basketball. We traded LaMarcus Aldridge for one of them.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

My point is...

It's an actual precedence for a poor shooter in college to improve in the pros.

What if Cam does become Michael Reddish?...

My point isn't that players can't improve as shooters. My point is that players who typically perform atrociously in college due to poor feel, BBIQ, and decision-making, do not become anything drastically different in the NBA.

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