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Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer?

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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2121 » by Ghost of Kleine » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:32 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
bwoolf2 wrote:
The last thing team this team needs is to add more projects in what is a pretty bad draft, we need NBA players... not players we want and hope to be someday become NBA players, thats the type of thinking that gets us another 10 years of what we have seen the past 10, bad basketball... thats a Hard Pass...

and I would not feel comfortable maxing out Dlo good player but something about that kid tells me a max deal is playing with fire.


Agree to disagree man.

First, all NBA players were at one time or another prospects obviously, and no one can accurately prognosticate their development curve right away.

But in considering that we're not currently a free agent destination, and lacking significant cap space, it'd be pretty shortsighted to neglect the opportunity to be able to add cheap talent and depth by neglecting the draft.

But I do believe that part of the major reason for us struggling this past decade was primarily due to the lack of proper player development. This has apparently been addressed by the front office recently.

Also, Clarke is already 22, level headed and would provide much needed defense at the 4 next to Ayton. Also NAW is a very solid combo guard that plays with poise.

And whose game and skillset has been compared to Malcom Brogdon. Finally, any player that we take at 32, can develop in the G League until ready, and will help provide low cost roster depth.

Most importantly, in getting these two or so prospects, in no way means that they'd be starting. We'd of course still get our veteran starters, and they'd play behind them.

Lastly these young players on rookie contracts are going to become valued assets as they develop for potential use in trades for possible impact players.

A "bird in hand" scenario honestly. :wink:


I know you have an affinity for prospects Ghost, considering how much research you do on them but I think you may be a little blinded by the potential of these young players and not seeing what we actually need. I'm not saying these players can't help us in the future or that they can't contribute a little now but I think we have to consider that Booker is a maxed out player now and he's entering his prime. We need guys who we KNOW can play now. The best way for our young players like Booker, like Ayton, like Bridges and even Oubre get better is by surrounding them with players who aren't here to learn how to play but already know how to play. We need experienced leaders out there, not more headless chickens.

Add another prospect, fine. But I'm not in favor of adding any more than one.


I agree with needing veterans to lead our young team man, I really do. However, last season, we really lacked roster depth nearing the end of the season. So it's always good to have additional roster depth.

And considering that we are severely limited in terms of cap space ( without big moves being made) it's of great value to have available talent at the lowest possible contractual price.

Also, as I mentioned in the last part of my post. We'd still look to veterans for our starting fives roster holes. And with the rookies contracts being so low cost, it really shouldn't impact our overall plans for adding veterans in free agency.

Personally, I'd be happy with just trading for Dinwiddie and the 17th pick. ( Taking Kabengele or Grant Williams at 17).

Then taking Zylan Cheatham or Chuma Okeke at 32( Stash in the G League for development).

Then trade Jackson and the Milwaukee pick to Cleveland for Smith's expiring.

Also, as it appears that Monty Williams is fond of what Tyler Johnson brings to our team, Hopefully we can renegotiate his contract? :dontknow:



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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2122 » by TASTIC » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:37 am

DirtyDez wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
DirtyDez wrote:
It doesn’t matter because we can’t pay him the max. Hypothetically if we had the cap space I could live with that considering the ages of Book, D’Lo and Ayton.


Well we'd have to create the space by dumping and/or waiving/stretching players.


The Nets just gave up two FRP’s to dump 15 mil. Tyler Johnson makes just over 19m and I don’t believe teams will line up to take Warren and Jackson off our hands not to mention Kelly Oubre waiting all this out for another RFA to get a max deal from the Suns.

I could see the Hornets or Clippers (if they whiff in FA) or Mavericks looking at Warren. He's a good 2/3 option when you have 3pt shooters around him. But here he's forced to play PF which he really isn't and he's clearly better than a bench guy that's for sure.

There are a ton of teams that could use a starting SF - the Hawks, Pistons, Pelicans and Blazers could all use him.

Sign me up for a Warren + Jackson for Aaron Gordon deal. Grab Dinwiddie and Kurucs for #6. Re-sign Crawford strictly in the mentor/Haslem/Nick Collison role (and not as 6th man!!). Re-sign Holmes (2/$15m give or take) and Oubre (4/$54m-$60m). Done.

Wouldn't surprise me if they go after Love using Warren, Tyler, MIL pick and some 2nds. Doubt CLE land a 1st for Love, let alone #6...
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2123 » by SuperSunsFan » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:38 am

bwgood77 wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:Do upper class men usually have better advanced stats than freshmen just for having more experience? How is Coby White's stats compared to other freshman point guards drafted in the past who turned out find like Fox or Murray? analytically speaking Clarke is good but how much does that have to do with the fact that he is old, do the models factor in age and experience as well?


Across all of college basketball, yes, upper class men will have better advanced stats, but what happens is we compare the top recruits...like maybe the top 10 recruits and a couple surprise freshman to solid sophomores or upper class men who have really worked and progressed. Clarke, for example, obviously was helped with age, experience, etc, but his advanced #s were better than anyone outside of Zion in years...I think his BPM was 2nd of the last 10 years while AD and Towns were 3rd and 4th...or something like that. He had a TS% of 70%...finished better than guys like Ayton....blocked shots like a madman. Made a huge difference for his team. Ayton couldn't prevent people from getting to the rim in college so really struggled there.

It's just hard to know how much all of this translates. Culver and Hunter are two others who are helped by having more time to develop in college...and Morant.

What are some red flags analytic wise that make Coby White such an undesirable pick for so many knowledgeable Suns fans.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2124 » by SuperSunsFan » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:56 am

bwgood77 wrote:Monty said he's really excited about Tyler...loves the intangibles he brings, coming from a winning program, etc. Not surprising since our run at the end of the season really seemed to have a lot to do with him. Even shortly before that run, Devin had mentioned it's the worst it's ever been, and this was long after Oubre had joined the team, but Tyler really seemed to bring something...a little bit of that PJ Tucker type mentality...leaving it out there....also seemed to give them advice. Makes me feel we won't look to get rid of him, though of course I'm sure we would if a great opportunity presents itself.

I really liked what Tyler was bringing to this team namely his tenacity on defense, size at his position, overall knowledge of the game, ability to execute game plan, leadership and work rate. He was not shooting the ball well but that is the area we can safely expect he will improve in the future as he had always been an above average to good shooter in miami. TBH I would have no problem at all with him starting at point for us next season if we could only afford to get a decent power forward in Free agency. Many of us agree that a 3 and D guy like beverley is someone ideal to partner with Booker and I just don't see that much of a downgrade Tyler is to Beverley, Beverley wasn't really facilitating but more a tiny combo guard as well, Tyler's size is way better, way younger and bring pretty much most what Beverley brings to the table. Beverley obvious is more accustomed and experienced in being the primary ball handler but given some time Tyler could be very reliable at that role for us as well, he obviously has shown he could do just that for us in that limited time when he was healthy.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2125 » by bigfoot » Fri Jun 7, 2019 2:56 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:Do upper class men usually have better advanced stats than freshmen just for having more experience? How is Coby White's stats compared to other freshman point guards drafted in the past who turned out find like Fox or Murray? analytically speaking Clarke is good but how much does that have to do with the fact that he is old, do the models factor in age and experience as well?


I think a very good evaluation if how age plays a factor is looking at who leads the league in wins shares.

http://bkref.com/tiny/aYmBw

If you take a look at that list more than 70% of the top 20 in win shares stayed in college 2+ years or are foreign players. The foreign players develop under professional team organizations. Notice that there is just a small representation of freshman on the list.

Too many 18 year old prospects/projects have an unfair advantage in college because the have been gifted a man-child body (or NBA ready body) and can physically dominate inferior opponents. That advantage disappears when they get to the NBA and sadly their BBIQ will often not develop beyond that of an 18 year old.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2126 » by bigfoot » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:07 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:Do upper class men usually have better advanced stats than freshmen just for having more experience? How is Coby White's stats compared to other freshman point guards drafted in the past who turned out find like Fox or Murray? analytically speaking Clarke is good but how much does that have to do with the fact that he is old, do the models factor in age and experience as well?


Across all of college basketball, yes, upper class men will have better advanced stats, but what happens is we compare the top recruits...like maybe the top 10 recruits and a couple surprise freshman to solid sophomores or upper class men who have really worked and progressed. Clarke, for example, obviously was helped with age, experience, etc, but his advanced #s were better than anyone outside of Zion in years...I think his BPM was 2nd of the last 10 years while AD and Towns were 3rd and 4th...or something like that. He had a TS% of 70%...finished better than guys like Ayton....blocked shots like a madman. Made a huge difference for his team. Ayton couldn't prevent people from getting to the rim in college so really struggled there.

It's just hard to know how much all of this translates. Culver and Hunter are two others who are helped by having more time to develop in college...and Morant.

What are some red flags analytic wise that make Coby White such an undesirable pick for so many knowledgeable Suns fans.


I would worry about his shooting in pressure situations. In tournament games he was 7 for 41 (17%) behind the college three point line. His free throw shooting also dropped off to 71%. Add in the fact he is 18 years old. Drafting White because of the Suns need to fill a hole at PG is a concern when they should be taking the best player available.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2127 » by Ghost of Kleine » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:12 am

bigfoot wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
bwoolf2 wrote:
The last thing team this team needs is to add more projects in what is a pretty bad draft, we need NBA players... not players we want and hope to be someday become NBA players, thats the type of thinking that gets us another 10 years of what we have seen the past 10, bad basketball... thats a Hard Pass...

and I would not feel comfortable maxing out Dlo good player but something about that kid tells me a max deal is playing with fire.


Agree to disagree man.

First, all NBA players were at one time or another prospects obviously, and no one can accurately prognosticate their development curve right away.

But in considering that we're not currently a free agent destination, and lacking significant cap space, it'd be pretty shortsighted to neglect the opportunity to be able to add cheap talent and depth by neglecting the draft.

But I do believe that part of the major reason for us struggling this past decade was primarily due to the lack of proper player development. This has apparently been addressed by the front office recently.

Also, Clarke is already 22, level headed and would provide much needed defense at the 4 next to Ayton. Also NAW is a very solid combo guard that plays with poise.

And whose game and skillset has been compared to Malcom Brogdon. Finally, any player that we take at 32, can develop in the G League until ready, and will help provide low cost roster depth.

Most importantly, in getting these two or so prospects, in no way means that they'd be starting. We'd of course still get our veteran starters, and they'd play behind them.

Lastly these young players on rookie contracts are going to become valued assets as they develop for potential use in trades for possible impact players.

A "bird in hand" scenario honestly. :wink:


Your looking at wrong. In the olden days, players had 3-4 years of player development in college. Their development curve was pretty well known by then. Now with these 18 year one and done players you have significantly more misses than hits. Look at our draft failures that last few years. The mistakes we have made are not player development, it's gifting time to rookies that are not NBA ready because we lack veterans who would school them every day in practice. Development doesn't come from game time it starts in practice by earning minutes.

Also, I believe we have made big mistakes by drafting for athletic potential over basketball IQ and shooting skills. Chriss and Jackson are both are perfect examples on the negative side while Booker, Warren, and Bridges are examples on the positive end. Honestly Ayton over Doncic is likely another misstep too. Any picks we make this season need to be college juniors or seniors who have already made significant strides on player development. The picks need to be ready to contribute off the bench this season. Tired of 18 year old millionaires wasting our cap space.



Again,

Two considerations:

1- Who's saying that these rookies would be starting? The idea would still be to bring them along behind quality veterans at their position ( on short 1 to 2 year deals).

Hopefully vets that are driven and tenacious, such as Beverly , or Collison, even TJ McConnell ( great IQ) vet. Have them develop behind their veteran mentors.

2- Honestly, Both player development ( scouting) and coaching plays a big part in players developing faster.

That's why franchises with better coaching and development coaches have fostered better results faster. For example, look to both San Antonio/ Milwaukee and Toronto too.


Jones and Bowers recognize this, Which is why they are bringing in personnel with strong player development skillsets.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2128 » by lilfishi22 » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:13 am

Ghost of Kleine wrote:
Spoiler:
lilfishi22 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
Agree to disagree man.

First, all NBA players were at one time or another prospects obviously, and no one can accurately prognosticate their development curve right away.

But in considering that we're not currently a free agent destination, and lacking significant cap space, it'd be pretty shortsighted to neglect the opportunity to be able to add cheap talent and depth by neglecting the draft.

But I do believe that part of the major reason for us struggling this past decade was primarily due to the lack of proper player development. This has apparently been addressed by the front office recently.

Also, Clarke is already 22, level headed and would provide much needed defense at the 4 next to Ayton. Also NAW is a very solid combo guard that plays with poise.

And whose game and skillset has been compared to Malcom Brogdon. Finally, any player that we take at 32, can develop in the G League until ready, and will help provide low cost roster depth.

Most importantly, in getting these two or so prospects, in no way means that they'd be starting. We'd of course still get our veteran starters, and they'd play behind them.

Lastly these young players on rookie contracts are going to become valued assets as they develop for potential use in trades for possible impact players.

A "bird in hand" scenario honestly. :wink:


I know you have an affinity for prospects Ghost, considering how much research you do on them but I think you may be a little blinded by the potential of these young players and not seeing what we actually need. I'm not saying these players can't help us in the future or that they can't contribute a little now but I think we have to consider that Booker is a maxed out player now and he's entering his prime. We need guys who we KNOW can play now. The best way for our young players like Booker, like Ayton, like Bridges and even Oubre get better is by surrounding them with players who aren't here to learn how to play but already know how to play. We need experienced leaders out there, not more headless chickens.

Add another prospect, fine. But I'm not in favor of adding any more than one.


I agree with needing veterans to lead our young team man, I really do. However, last season, we really lacked roster depth nearing the end of the season. So it's always good to have additional roster depth.

And considering that we are severely limited in terms of cap space ( without big moves being made) it's of great value to have available talent at the lowest possible contractual price.

Also, as I mentioned in the last part of my post. We'd still look to veterans for our starting fives roster holes. And with the rookies contracts being so low cost, it really shouldn't impact our overall plans for adding veterans in free agency.

Personally, I'd be happy with just trading for Dinwiddie and the 17th pick. ( Taking Kabengele or Grant Williams at 17).

Then taking Zylan Cheatham or Chuma Okeke at 32( Stash in the G League for development).

Then trade Jackson and the Milwaukee pick to Cleveland for Smith's expiring.

Also, as it appears that Monty Williams is fond of what Tyler Johnson brings to our team, Hopefully we can renegotiate his contract? :dontknow:



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We lost a lot of key players to injuries down the stretch. Ayton missed the last 5-6 games, I think Booker reinjured himself towards the end, TJo basically played as many games as he missed with us, Oubre was done by mid-March, TJ was out for like half a season and even Holmes missed a handful of games. We didn't lack depth in the traditional sense that we had no one to come off the bench, we lacked depth because our bench basically became our starters towards the end and we actually started Bender, Spalding, Jackson, Bridges and Okobo. Only one of those players is a legit NBA rotation player right now.

#17 is off the table now anyway since that's been moved traded to ATL.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2129 » by SuperSunsFan » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:14 am

bigfoot wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
Across all of college basketball, yes, upper class men will have better advanced stats, but what happens is we compare the top recruits...like maybe the top 10 recruits and a couple surprise freshman to solid sophomores or upper class men who have really worked and progressed. Clarke, for example, obviously was helped with age, experience, etc, but his advanced #s were better than anyone outside of Zion in years...I think his BPM was 2nd of the last 10 years while AD and Towns were 3rd and 4th...or something like that. He had a TS% of 70%...finished better than guys like Ayton....blocked shots like a madman. Made a huge difference for his team. Ayton couldn't prevent people from getting to the rim in college so really struggled there.

It's just hard to know how much all of this translates. Culver and Hunter are two others who are helped by having more time to develop in college...and Morant.

What are some red flags analytic wise that make Coby White such an undesirable pick for so many knowledgeable Suns fans.


I would worry about his shooting in pressure situations. In tournament games he was 7 for 41 (17%) behind the college three point line. His free throw shooting also dropped off to 71%. Add in the fact he is 18 years old. Drafting White because of the Suns need to fill a hole at PG is a concern when they should be taking the best player available.

What are some red flags for DeAndre Hunter then? He seems to be the best player available at our drafting position, if that is the case then why not just take him and let Oubre leave as FA and use that cap to sign a real power forward?
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2130 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:17 am

bigfoot wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:Do upper class men usually have better advanced stats than freshmen just for having more experience? How is Coby White's stats compared to other freshman point guards drafted in the past who turned out find like Fox or Murray? analytically speaking Clarke is good but how much does that have to do with the fact that he is old, do the models factor in age and experience as well?


I think a very good evaluation if how age plays a factor is looking at who leads the league in wins shares.

http://bkref.com/tiny/aYmBw

If you take a look at that list more than 70% of the top 20 in win shares stayed in college 2+ years or are foreign players. The foreign players develop under professional team organizations. Notice that there is just a small representation of freshman on the list.

Too many 18 year old prospects/projects have an unfair advantage in college because the have been gifted a man-child body (or NBA ready body) and can physically dominate inferior opponents. That advantage disappears when they get to the NBA and sadly their BBIQ will often not develop beyond that of an 18 year old.
That list shows the prime age is basically 23-30 which isn't much of a surprise. Now the vast majority of those guys entered the league very young and were those 18 year old freaks in college at some point but continued to develop.

Development is a tricky thing and lots of different factors can derail it. As much as people like to dog the high school rankings whenever a top guys fails at either the college or pro level I saw a study that where they are ranked as high schoolers is the most accurate gauge of pro success even more than college production. Of course there are outliers both ways but overall we do a pretty good job identifying the very gifted players at a very young age.

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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2131 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:21 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
bigfoot wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:What are some red flags analytic wise that make Coby White such an undesirable pick for so many knowledgeable Suns fans.


I would worry about his shooting in pressure situations. In tournament games he was 7 for 41 (17%) behind the college three point line. His free throw shooting also dropped off to 71%. Add in the fact he is 18 years old. Drafting White because of the Suns need to fill a hole at PG is a concern when they should be taking the best player available.

What are some red flags for DeAndre Hunter then? He seems to be the best player available at our drafting position, if that is the case then why not just take him and let Oubre leave as FA and use that cap to sign a real power forward?
Very low steal and block rates and a pretty low rebounding rate considering his size. Those are stats that are a decent translation to what to expect as a pro. He has a good jumper but is a little slow with his release.

I think he's a pretty solid prospect because he can defend one on one and should be decent on offense. He has the size to play PF but his weaknesses don't mesh real well with Ayton. As a SF I don't really like him as much as Bridges or even Oubre so it's a hard fit.

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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2132 » by bigfoot » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:23 am

Ghost of Kleine wrote:
bigfoot wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
Agree to disagree man.

First, all NBA players were at one time or another prospects obviously, and no one can accurately prognosticate their development curve right away.

But in considering that we're not currently a free agent destination, and lacking significant cap space, it'd be pretty shortsighted to neglect the opportunity to be able to add cheap talent and depth by neglecting the draft.

But I do believe that part of the major reason for us struggling this past decade was primarily due to the lack of proper player development. This has apparently been addressed by the front office recently.

Also, Clarke is already 22, level headed and would provide much needed defense at the 4 next to Ayton. Also NAW is a very solid combo guard that plays with poise.

And whose game and skillset has been compared to Malcom Brogdon. Finally, any player that we take at 32, can develop in the G League until ready, and will help provide low cost roster depth.

Most importantly, in getting these two or so prospects, in no way means that they'd be starting. We'd of course still get our veteran starters, and they'd play behind them.

Lastly these young players on rookie contracts are going to become valued assets as they develop for potential use in trades for possible impact players.

A "bird in hand" scenario honestly. :wink:


Your looking at wrong. In the olden days, players had 3-4 years of player development in college. Their development curve was pretty well known by then. Now with these 18 year one and done players you have significantly more misses than hits. Look at our draft failures that last few years. The mistakes we have made are not player development, it's gifting time to rookies that are not NBA ready because we lack veterans who would school them every day in practice. Development doesn't come from game time it starts in practice by earning minutes.

Also, I believe we have made big mistakes by drafting for athletic potential over basketball IQ and shooting skills. Chriss and Jackson are both are perfect examples on the negative side while Booker, Warren, and Bridges are examples on the positive end. Honestly Ayton over Doncic is likely another misstep too. Any picks we make this season need to be college juniors or seniors who have already made significant strides on player development. The picks need to be ready to contribute off the bench this season. Tired of 18 year old millionaires wasting our cap space.



Again,

Two considerations:

1- Who's saying that these rookies would be starting? The idea would still be to bring them along behind quality veterans at their position ( on short 1 to 2 year deals).

Hopefully vets that are driven and tenacious, such as Beverly , or Collison, even TJ McConnell ( great IQ) vet. Have them develop behind their veteran mentors.

2- Honestly, Both player development ( scouting) and coaching plays a big part in players developing faster.

That's why franchises with better coaching and development coaches have fostered better results faster. For example, look to both San Antonio/ Milwaukee and Toronto too.


Jones and Bowers recognize this, Which is why they are bringing in personnel with strong player development skillsets.


So adding two rookies plus Melton, Okobo, Bridges, Ayton, and Spalding still means 1/3 of our team is very young and inexperienced in the NBA. Add in Jackson who is a hot mess to make matters worse. No we need more veterans not more youth. The Suns need exactly one rookie to tote the veterans bags around and to get food for them.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2133 » by SuperSunsFan » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:26 am

If DeAndre Hunter is projected to be at least as good as Mikal I would just draft Hunter and find a way to flip our young assets like Mikal and TJ into either a starting point or power forward. The problem I have with Mikal is that due to his slight body frame he will always get pushed around by stronger players but Hunter is not going to budge, that dude is built like a tank and he is projected to be someone like a kawhi or Jimmy Butler. A Booker-Hunter-Ayton core is much more promising than Booker-Oubre-Ayron or Booker-Mikal-Ayton.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2134 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:30 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:If DeAndre Hunter is projected to be at least as good as Mikal I would just draft Hunter and find a way to parlay our young assets like Mikal and TJ into either a starting point or power forward. The problem I have with Mikal is that due to his slight body frame he will always get pushed around by stronger players but Hunter is not going to budge, that dude is built like a tank and he is projected to be someone like a kawhi or Jimmy Butler. A Booker-Hunter-Ayton core is much more promising than Booker-Oubre-Ayron or Booker-Mikal-Ayton.
Personal preference I guess but to me Bridges is a far superior prospect and we've already seen him defend at a high level in the NBA. He had an outstanding steal rate and great understanding of team D. Hunter can defend but is not a disruptive turnover creator.

Bridges does need to add strength but it's not like modern SFs like to play bully ball. Quickness and length are more important.

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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2135 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:32 am

bigfoot wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
bigfoot wrote:
Your looking at wrong. In the olden days, players had 3-4 years of player development in college. Their development curve was pretty well known by then. Now with these 18 year one and done players you have significantly more misses than hits. Look at our draft failures that last few years. The mistakes we have made are not player development, it's gifting time to rookies that are not NBA ready because we lack veterans who would school them every day in practice. Development doesn't come from game time it starts in practice by earning minutes.

Also, I believe we have made big mistakes by drafting for athletic potential over basketball IQ and shooting skills. Chriss and Jackson are both are perfect examples on the negative side while Booker, Warren, and Bridges are examples on the positive end. Honestly Ayton over Doncic is likely another misstep too. Any picks we make this season need to be college juniors or seniors who have already made significant strides on player development. The picks need to be ready to contribute off the bench this season. Tired of 18 year old millionaires wasting our cap space.



Again,

Two considerations:

1- Who's saying that these rookies would be starting? The idea would still be to bring them along behind quality veterans at their position ( on short 1 to 2 year deals).

Hopefully vets that are driven and tenacious, such as Beverly , or Collison, even TJ McConnell ( great IQ) vet. Have them develop behind their veteran mentors.

2- Honestly, Both player development ( scouting) and coaching plays a big part in players developing faster.

That's why franchises with better coaching and development coaches have fostered better results faster. For example, look to both San Antonio/ Milwaukee and Toronto too.


Jones and Bowers recognize this, Which is why they are bringing in personnel with strong player development skillsets.


So adding two rookies plus Melton, Okobo, Bridges, Ayton, and Spalding still means 1/3 of our team is very young and inexperienced in the NBA. Add in Jackson who is a hot mess to make matters worse. No we need more veterans not more youth. The Suns need exactly one rookie to tote the veterans bags around and to get food for them.
Of all the players you listed only Bridges and Ayton should factor in one bit into who the suns add this year. Not that every single guy needs to be off the roster but none should be considered in the least when adding rookies or vets.

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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2136 » by bwgood77 » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:42 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
bigfoot wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:What are some red flags analytic wise that make Coby White such an undesirable pick for so many knowledgeable Suns fans.


I would worry about his shooting in pressure situations. In tournament games he was 7 for 41 (17%) behind the college three point line. His free throw shooting also dropped off to 71%. Add in the fact he is 18 years old. Drafting White because of the Suns need to fill a hole at PG is a concern when they should be taking the best player available.

What are some red flags for DeAndre Hunter then? He seems to be the best player available at our drafting position, if that is the case then why not just take him and let Oubre leave as FA and use that cap to sign a real power forward?


I go back and forth on him but he doesn't rebound, protect the rim or get steals. He is just a stretch 4 with good D. You can compare the rebounds, blocks and steals with Clarke here.

http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=brandon-clarke--de-andre-hunter
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2137 » by Ghost of Kleine » Fri Jun 7, 2019 3:55 am

lilfishi22 wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
Spoiler:
lilfishi22 wrote:
I know you have an affinity for prospects Ghost, considering how much research you do on them but I think you may be a little blinded by the potential of these young players and not seeing what we actually need. I'm not saying these players can't help us in the future or that they can't contribute a little now but I think we have to consider that Booker is a maxed out player now and he's entering his prime. We need guys who we KNOW can play now. The best way for our young players like Booker, like Ayton, like Bridges and even Oubre get better is by surrounding them with players who aren't here to learn how to play but already know how to play. We need experienced leaders out there, not more headless chickens.

Add another prospect, fine. But I'm not in favor of adding any more than one.


I agree with needing veterans to lead our young team man, I really do. However, last season, we really lacked roster depth nearing the end of the season. So it's always good to have additional roster depth.

And considering that we are severely limited in terms of cap space ( without big moves being made) it's of great value to have available talent at the lowest possible contractual price.

Also, as I mentioned in the last part of my post. We'd still look to veterans for our starting fives roster holes. And with the rookies contracts being so low cost, it really shouldn't impact our overall plans for adding veterans in free agency.

Personally, I'd be happy with just trading for Dinwiddie and the 17th pick. ( Taking Kabengele or Grant Williams at 17).

Then taking Zylan Cheatham or Chuma Okeke at 32( Stash in the G League for development).

Then trade Jackson and the Milwaukee pick to Cleveland for Smith's expiring.

Also, as it appears that Monty Williams is fond of what Tyler Johnson brings to our team, Hopefully we can renegotiate his contract? :dontknow:



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We lost a lot of key players to injuries down the stretch. Ayton missed the last 5-6 games, I think Booker reinjured himself towards the end, TJo basically played as many games as he missed with us, Oubre was done by mid-March, TJ was out for like half a season and even Holmes missed a handful of games. We didn't lack depth in the traditional sense that we had no one to come off the bench, we lacked depth because our bench basically became our starters towards the end and we actually started Bender, Spalding, Jackson, Bridges and Okobo. Only one of those players is a legit NBA rotation player right now.

#17 is off the table now anyway since that's been moved traded to ATL.



Valid points, But again, that's why having roster depth matters. And if your coaching and development staff is really good at their job, you can of course even have first year players that contribute to your team being competitive.

It can easily be argued that due to our coaching/ front office instability and lack of overall player development, That our cores progression has been delayed.

I mean don't you think that San Antonio, Toronto, or Denver , etc. Wouldn't have likely gotten greater results from our rookies by now?

And I'm ok with the 17th pick not being on the table, I'm also all for vets. I really just want us to address our positional roster holes with competent players, and players who are tough, gritty, and tenacious.

I'm just not quite sure how they plan to do that exactly with our current diminutive cap space.

And in considering that we're not just yet a free agent destination, and don't have the necessary cap space to realistically compete with all of the other teams in free agency ( in better situations and with more cap space).

I just look to the next most realistic and cost effective way for us to fill those positional needs.......The draft.

Although I still do like the bargain options at power forward: Noah Vonleh, Daniel Theiss, Aminu, Jamychal Green, Mike Muscala, Jonas Jerebko ( 1 -2 year deals).

And Point guard bargain options: Santoransky, McConnell, Cory Joseph, Beverly, Collison. But if we can accomplish trades for higher caliber impact vets, than I'm totally for that too. :wink:
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2138 » by WeekapaugGroove » Fri Jun 7, 2019 4:03 am

I'm all for trading the pick but it takes two to tango.

Should be noted two of the guys who actually had a positive impact on the floor last year were ayton and Bridges... Rookies

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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2139 » by Ghost of Kleine » Fri Jun 7, 2019 4:10 am

bigfoot wrote:
Ghost of Kleine wrote:
bigfoot wrote:
Your looking at wrong. In the olden days, players had 3-4 years of player development in college. Their development curve was pretty well known by then. Now with these 18 year one and done players you have significantly more misses than hits. Look at our draft failures that last few years. The mistakes we have made are not player development, it's gifting time to rookies that are not NBA ready because we lack veterans who would school them every day in practice. Development doesn't come from game time it starts in practice by earning minutes.

Also, I believe we have made big mistakes by drafting for athletic potential over basketball IQ and shooting skills. Chriss and Jackson are both are perfect examples on the negative side while Booker, Warren, and Bridges are examples on the positive end. Honestly Ayton over Doncic is likely another misstep too. Any picks we make this season need to be college juniors or seniors who have already made significant strides on player development. The picks need to be ready to contribute off the bench this season. Tired of 18 year old millionaires wasting our cap space.



Again,

Two considerations:

1- Who's saying that these rookies would be starting? The idea would still be to bring them along behind quality veterans at their position ( on short 1 to 2 year deals).

Hopefully vets that are driven and tenacious, such as Beverly , or Collison, even TJ McConnell ( great IQ) vet. Have them develop behind their veteran mentors.

2- Honestly, Both player development ( scouting) and coaching plays a big part in players developing faster.

That's why franchises with better coaching and development coaches have fostered better results faster. For example, look to both San Antonio/ Milwaukee and Toronto too.


Jones and Bowers recognize this, Which is why they are bringing in personnel with strong player development skillsets.


So adding two rookies plus Melton, Okobo, Bridges, Ayton, and Spalding still means 1/3 of our team is very young and inexperienced in the NBA. Add in Jackson who is a hot mess to make matters worse. No we need more veterans not more youth. The Suns need exactly one rookie to tote the veterans bags around and to get food for them.


Personally, I'd like to keep Melton for his defensive skillset. I expect that they'll trade Okobo, waive Spalding, most likely move Jackson, and possibly Warren ( as unpopular as it is for some to consider).

My thinking about Warren is again based upon the emergence of both Oubre and Bridges, and also, their omissions of Warren upon discussion of their future plans and promotions, along with them omitting him from their marketing schemes too.

And of course the unfortunate reality that he's currently our best and pretty much only viable trade chip to utilize in a trade.

So the overall premise of my suggestion is really that they'd only look to bring in possibly two high IQ prospects to add low cost positional depth at both guard and power forward.

And the 32nd pick would be a flier player that they'd stash in the G League for development, until ready. And that we'll still look to add at least 3 veterans to our starting rotation through both trade and free agency.

Otherwise why would they choose to bring in such a wide range of prospects in predraft workouts???

Due diligence doesn't really apply to prospects in the late first to 2nd round, when we're at 6, Unless they're also looking to likely add cheap depth and players with particular skillsets that they can get on low cost rookie contracts.

1- As to not detract from the majority of our free agency cap space for vets.

2- Seeing as our current trade assets have minimal value, They can identify high value 2nd round prospects that they can again build up in the G league to increase the overall value of our trade package around 2021 for the next Big name free agency.
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Re: Free agency and trade ideas: Which wings do we go after this summer? 

Post#2140 » by Crives » Fri Jun 7, 2019 4:29 am

SuperSunsFan wrote:
bwgood77 wrote:
SuperSunsFan wrote:Do upper class men usually have better advanced stats than freshmen just for having more experience? How is Coby White's stats compared to other freshman point guards drafted in the past who turned out find like Fox or Murray? analytically speaking Clarke is good but how much does that have to do with the fact that he is old, do the models factor in age and experience as well?


Across all of college basketball, yes, upper class men will have better advanced stats, but what happens is we compare the top recruits...like maybe the top 10 recruits and a couple surprise freshman to solid sophomores or upper class men who have really worked and progressed. Clarke, for example, obviously was helped with age, experience, etc, but his advanced #s were better than anyone outside of Zion in years...I think his BPM was 2nd of the last 10 years while AD and Towns were 3rd and 4th...or something like that. He had a TS% of 70%...finished better than guys like Ayton....blocked shots like a madman. Made a huge difference for his team. Ayton couldn't prevent people from getting to the rim in college so really struggled there.

It's just hard to know how much all of this translates. Culver and Hunter are two others who are helped by having more time to develop in college...and Morant.

What are some red flags analytic wise that make Coby White such an undesirable pick for so many knowledgeable Suns fans.


Passing, Athleticism and being a rookie pg.

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