Wizards 2019 Draft Thread - Part II

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If we do end up trading down for two picks, a guy I'd like to target with our later pick is Cameron Johnson. We really don't have a SF with size on the roster. Brown looks like he is being groomed to play guard, and Ariza is probably too old and too expensive to retain.

Cameron Johnson is a 23-year-old senior with good size (6-8 with a 6-10 wingspan) and deadly shooting. He seems like a plug and play 3&D wing who should be useful right away, even if his ceiling isn't all that high. It sure would be nice to have a rotation-caliber (perhaps starting caliber?) rookie who could give quality minutes for the next 4 years on an ultra-cheap rookie contract.

My dream scenario this draft is to trade the #9 for the #14 and #22, draft one of Clarke/Samanic at #14, and then draft Johnson at #22.

If you go off of this year's numbers, absolutely! Johnson looks like a tremendous bargain, an absolute steal, anywhere in the 2d half of R1.

The problem comes when you look at his numbers the prior year at UNC or his 3d year at Pitt. You're sort of stopped in your tracks. Honestly, I have no idea what to think of Cameron Johnson. It's hard to doubt that he'll be a good catch and shoot 3-point scorer. Why would he regress? Even given the adjustment to the NBA3-point line.

For the rest, if you think he'll come close to doing in the league what he did as a senior at UNC, no problem! But... ??????

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I feel all of this talk about trading down is interesting and a possible exercise in futility, especially if there is a widely viewed consensus that this draft is a crapshoot after the top 2 and especially after the top 7. If we feel that we have a better chance of selecting a star with two later picks, as opposed to our current selection at #9, why are we so certain that a "trade will be available" to a team that has a later pick? Why would another team give up the draft capital to pick Clark, Reddish or whoever @ #9, when they can stay put and possibly get Clark, Reddish or whoever @ #14, without also giving up the #22 as well? While it makes for a great fantasy discussion, and sure, it is possible that someone could fall in love with a guy that we don't necessarily value as high, but that's far from a guarantee.

Wouldn't it make more sense to try and lock in on who is the best possible prospect at #9, regardless of if other guys "could", "might" or "may" be a better value later in the draft?

In short, no. Or, rather... yes! I mean... obviously you have to know what you'll do at pretty much any pick in the draft & under pretty much any condition. Which means you have to have a draft board. But, you need that in either case, whether you trade or not. & that's very different from what you describe.

IOW, you may be right -- it's possible there won't be a reasonable trade-down scenario. Who knows? But, if you think that's the best thing to do, then you keep busy trying to do it! &, of course, you also know who you're going to pick at #9.

In fact, who you pick at #9 may turn out to be key to the issue of a trade. Just for drill, imagine that Atlanta has a guy in mind for #10, whom they value a lot higher than anyone else available at that slot. If it happens that we take that guy @ #9, that might enable a trade right there.

That exact scenario, & pretty much every imaginable scenario, is something you have to be prepared for. Or at least try. The one thing you do not want to do is "lock in on" a single "best" prospect, which you can't do anyway! What if he gets taken @ #8??

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Cam's a 2nd round talent. ...

Just curious. Why do you think he is just a 2nd round talent. He has legit SF size. He's one of the best shooters in college basketball. Athletically, he has one of the best lane agility scores and his 3/4 sprint and standing vertical are above-average for the draft class. He is known as a sound defender, if not an actual stopper....

Exacly... In fact, compare him to Khris Middleton, joe Harris, and Klay.... out side of maybe a year or two, what makes him a lesser prospect?
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cameron-johnson--klay-thompson--khris-middleton--joe-harris....

The single biggest problem with the Tankathon comparison -- which is very interesting all the same! -- is that it compares Johnson to 3 guys who made it. But, no one questions that some guys do!

Somebody else could pick 3 other guys who also have similar profiles to Cam in the way the guys in this comparo do, but guys who were failures. Who didn't make in the league. Would that prove to anyone that Cam Johnson can't make it? I hope not!!

The only way to use this kind of comparo to figure out where Cam should be drafted is to dig deep & come up with a large number of guys all of whom produced numbers that converge on what Cam did. Then look at how many of them made it.

That doesn't prove anything either, of course! But at least it gives you an idea of the odds. & the odds would give you an idea of where he should go in the draft.

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Here's a real interesting article on Grant Williams. I'd love to grab him early in the 2nd round:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/09/draft-notes-grant-williams-chosen-24-40-drafts-second-best-play/

Here's a key chart comparing Williams to other NBA players with a similar body type:



Williams is a very young junior, only 20.5 years old. He passes better than everyone but Draymond. He has the best 2P% and a solid Stocks rating. As an 82% FT shooter, it's a good bet he'll develop a 3-point shot.

I am pretty high on Grant Williams, as I've posted elsewhere. There are no sure things, but he looks like a guy who'll have a really solid & long NBA career.

But... I don't think he'll last into R2; a few mocks have him there; but most have him in the 20s-30.

If we traded our #9 to the Sixers for their #s 24, 33 & 34 (plus something more... required to even value according to Pelton's chart), I'd be really happy if we came out of the draft with Williams, Windler & Samanic -- & that would be possible! (barely...)

[Ruzious]

One great trade down that included the 9th pick happened in 1998 (aka the Tyronn Liue draft): Bucks traded 9 and 19 for 6. Tractor Traylor was 6, Dirk Nowitzky was 9. Some guy named Pat Garrity was 19. Oh the pain for Bucks fans. No, the lesson isn't to trade down; it's to not be stupid.

Some guy named Pat Garrity?! He was a 40% 3 point shooter, scored twice as many points and made twice as much money as Tractor Traylor. Traylor should be designated as "some guy"

Oh ok, I thought Pat Garrity was some guy who hung out with Billy the Kid. Or was that the Dallas Cowboys coach?

[Ruzious]

Just curious. Why do you think he is just a 2nd round talent. He has legit SF size. He's one of the best shooters in college basketball. Athletically, he has one of the best lane agility scores and his 3/4 sprint and standing vertical are above-average for the draft class. He is known as a sound defender, if not an actual stopper....

Exacly... In fact, compare him to Khris Middleton, joe Harris, and Klay.... out side of maybe a year or two, what makes him a lesser prospect?
http://www.tankathon.com/players/compare?players=cameron-johnson--klay-thompson--khris-middleton--joe-harris....

The single biggest problem with the Tankathon comparison -- which is very interesting all the same! -- is that it compares Johnson to 3 guys who made it. But, no one questions that some guys do!

Somebody else could pick 3 other guys who also have similar profiles to Cam in the way the guys in this comparo do, but guys who were failures. Who didn't make in the league. Would that prove to anyone that Cam Johnson can't make it? I hope not!!

The only way to use this kind of comparo to figure out where Cam should be drafted is to dig deep & come up with a large number of guys all of whom produced numbers that converge on what Cam did. Then look at how many of them made it.

That doesn't prove anything either, of course! But at least it gives you an idea of the odds. & the odds would give you an idea of where he should go in the draft.

Good point - seems like most people want a comparison for prospects, and most don't consider the players who didn't make it as comparisons. This guy's the next Tyler Lydon or Ed O'Bannon or Adam Morrison. Actually, Lydon's a decent comp in this case.

[Illmatic12]

Tommy Sheppard putting in work? Based on the timeline it appears that the Wizards promised a roster spot to Paul Eboua , he withdrew his name from the draft immediately following his Wizards workout. I would assume Tommy has been scouting him for some time and saw what they needed to see in the workout today:

Read on Twitter

Eboua actually profiles very similarly to Sekou Doumbouya. Just doesn't have the same pedigree on the international basketball stage. But he's an athletic switchable defensive forward with crazy length and some offensive upside - fairly strong handle and slashing ability and a workable jumpshot. 6'8 with a 7'3 (!) wingspan and very well built for a 19yo (second pic)

Read on Twitter

Watch on YouTube

If indeed the Wizards are bringing him in , he'll be a great prospect to develop within the program.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

I'm with you on Herro. I'd honestly be ok with them taking him at 9.

No. Either Herro will be available at 14, or someone better than Herro will be.

It's a given that #9 is worth more than #14, hence Boston will absolutely be willing to give #14 & something for our #9. If all that something is turns out to be a couple of R2 picks next year & the following year, it would still make sense.

Focusing on one guy in the draft is never, ever a good approach. This is how we managed to pick Vesely when Kawhi was on the board.

I'd be interested in trading down....

If we can deal 9 to Boston for say 14 & 22 ?

I'd be very happy to come out of the draft with Herro and Cam Johnson for example.


I will probably get killed, I probably overvalue later picks, one reason why Grunfeld always drove me nuts... But I would even consider something like 9 to Philly for 24, 33, 34, 42.

Our roster situation is bleak. We need low cost players, and youth to rebuild...

With those picks we could come away with something like Cam Johnson, Nazreon Reid, Ty Jerome, Carson Edwards.

Other guys in that upper 2nd round could include Thybulle, Gafford, Hoard, Windler, Fernando, Grant Williams...

But I know that's just me.

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Here's a real interesting article on Grant Williams. I'd love to grab him early in the 2nd round:

https://www.thestepien.com/2019/06/09/draft-notes-grant-williams-chosen-24-40-drafts-second-best-play/

Here's a key chart comparing Williams to other NBA players with a similar body type:



Williams is a very young junior, only 20.5 years old. He passes better than everyone but Draymond. He has the best 2P% and a solid Stocks rating. As an 82% FT shooter, it's a good bet he'll develop a 3-point shot.

I am pretty high on Grant Williams, as I've posted elsewhere. There are no sure things, but he looks like a guy who'll have a really solid & long NBA career.

But... I don't think he'll last into R2; a few mocks have him there; but most have him in the 20s-30.

If we traded our #9 to the Sixers for their #s 24, 33 & 34 (plus something more... required to even value according to Pelton's chart), I'd be really happy if we came out of the draft with Williams, Windler & Samanic -- & that would be possible! (barely...)

Sorry PIF , didn't see this you already posted the same idea... trade down with Philly , they have 3 2nd rounders...

It's not just me !!

[queridiculo]

Tommy Sheppard putting in work? Based on the timeline it appears that the Wizards promised a roster spot to Paul Eboua , he withdrew his name from the draft immediately following his Wizards workout.

How are the Wizards supposed to sign him if he withdrew from the draft?

[SUPERBALLMAN]

Tommy Sheppard putting in work? Based on the timeline it appears that the Wizards promised a roster spot to Paul Eboua , he withdrew his name from the draft immediately following his Wizards workout.

How are the Wizards supposed to sign him if he withdrew from the draft?

Right.. It even says he a target for next year's draft.

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I'm with you on Herro. I'd honestly be ok with them taking him at 9.

No. Either Herro will be available at 14, or someone better than Herro will be.

It's a given that #9 is worth more than #14, hence Boston will absolutely be willing to give #14 & something for our #9. If all that something is turns out to be a couple of R2 picks next year & the following year, it would still make sense.

Focusing on one guy in the draft is never, ever a good approach. This is how we managed to pick Vesely when Kawhi was on the board.

I'd be interested in trading down....

If we can deal 9 to Boston for say 14 & 22 ?

I'd be very happy to come out of the draft with Herro and Cam Johnson for example.

I will probably get killed, I probably overvalue later picks, one reason why Grunfeld always drove me nuts... But I would even consider something like 9 to Philly for 24, 33, 34, 42.

Our roster situation is bleak. We need low cost players, and youth to rebuild...

With those picks we could come away with something like Cam Johnson, Nazreon Reid, Ty Jerome, Carson Edwards.

Other guys in that upper 2nd round could include Thybulle, Gafford, Hoard, Windler, Fernando, Grant Williams...

But I know that's just me.

I don't think we'll get 14 & 22 for 9 -- unless there's someone there Ainge really really wants. But, of course, ask for it! 20 & 22 fits Pelton's scheme -- http://nbasense.com/draft-pick-trade-value/2/kevin-pelton-2 -- tho who knows how real that is.

I also like the Sixers idea -- but I'd want a higher R2 pick next year in place of this year's #42, I think. (?....)

Of the guys you mention, I like Williams & Thybulle most. You don't mention Samanic. If I could get those 3 guys (& another R2 next year) in a trade for our #9, I'd jump at it! Of course, there's no way to know....

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Tommy Sheppard putting in work? Based on the timeline it appears that the Wizards promised a roster spot to Paul Eboua , he withdrew his name from the draft immediately following his Wizards workout.

How are the Wizards supposed to sign him if he withdrew from the draft?

Right.. It even says he a target for next year's draft.

I had the same question. Maybe what they told him was... "Nobody's going to draft you; go back, get better, & give it another try next year."

OTOH, maybe the draft has nothing to do with a team's ability to sign a guy as a FA?

Wait.. no -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft -- "No player may sign with the NBA until he has been eligible for at least one draft."

[BigA]

How are the Wizards supposed to sign him if he withdrew from the draft?

Right.. It even says he a target for next year's draft.

I had the same question. Maybe what they told him was... "Nobody's going to draft you; go back, get better, & give it another try next year."

OTOH, maybe the draft has nothing to do with a team's ability to sign a guy as a FA?

Wait.. no -- https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_draft -- "No player may sign with the NBA until he has been eligible for at least one draft."

Maybe Tommy said the Wizards would draft him, and he found the prospect of joining the Wizards so unappealing that he decided on the spot to go back to school.

[Ruzious]

Tommy Sheppard putting in work? Based on the timeline it appears that the Wizards promised a roster spot to Paul Eboua , he withdrew his name from the draft immediately following his Wizards workout.

How are the Wizards supposed to sign him if he withdrew from the draft?

Right.. It even says he a target for next year's draft.

Here's a link to a 2016 scouting report on him - when he was 16 - even then, his wingspan was like Kawhi Leonard's. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Paul-Eboua-97883/

[queridiculo]

Here's a link to a 2016 scouting report on him - when he was 16 - even then, his wingspan was like Kawhi Leonard's. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Paul-Eboua-97883/

Pretty incredible to see his frame listed as weakness when you look at his physique now.

[Ruzious]

Here's a link to a 2016 scouting report on him - when he was 16 - even then, his wingspan was like Kawhi Leonard's. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Paul-Eboua-97883/

Pretty incredible to see his frame listed as weakness when you look at his physique now.

Enormous upper body - I wonder if he'd be better off losing some of that bulk.

[TGW]

Here's a link to a 2016 scouting report on him - when he was 16 - even then, his wingspan was like Kawhi Leonard's. http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Paul-Eboua-97883/

Pretty incredible to see his frame listed as weakness when you look at his physique now.

Enormous upper body - I wonder if he'd be better off losing some of that bulk.

If their plan is to develop him as a big four, might as well let him keep it as long as it's muscle and not fat.

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How they gonna "develop him" -- ?? -- He dropped out of the draft. Maybe even on their advice, since he did it right after the workout.

Have you watched the scouting video, anyone? He doesn't look like an NBA-ready player to me!

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Might as well enjoy some highlights....

Watch on YouTube

Like most players, he looks best in his highlights.