2019 MLB Draft thread, June 3 - 5

Post #161 » by **Schad** » Fri Jun 7, 2019 5:45 am

If the question is "how often will the player max out all their skills?", the answer is well short of 1 in 10, even. They don't necessarily need to in order to be very good, but it's a curve rather than a binary equation. Here, I made a really bad graph:

https://imgur.com/uA3ZF9I

Rutschman and our theoretical risky prospect (and it's worth noting that those graphs really don't parallel reality; the likelihood for both succeeding is actually quite a bit lower, particularly our risky prospect, but it's Paint for goodness sake) have roughly the same chance to be a 2 WAR/year (average) player, and roughly the same chance to be a 5 WAR/year (high-end all-star) player. The risky guy does have a better chance to be a superstar, but the sacrifice is all of that space in Rutschman's bell curve where he's really quite good but not one of the best players in baseball.

Now, the calculus absolutely changes later in the draft; your appetite for risk can and should expand when the rewards are far less certain. If you're balancing a guy with a good chance to be an above-average-to-all-star player against a guy with an outside chance to be an elite one, take the former; if you're balancing that risky pick against a guy with a solid chance to be a fourth starter, that's different). But there's a reason why, despite their upside, guys like Malone and Rutledge went much later than you peg them...in the aggregate, their results are likely to be worse. Doesn't mean they aren't worth taking, and it doesn't mean that some won't become spectacular, but it does mean that they're probably best grabbed in spots where the gamble is more worthwhile.

Edit: why is RealGM breaking all of my Imgur links all of a sudden welp it's a link now.

GoRapstheoriginal · Post #162 » by **GoRapstheoriginal** » Fri Jun 7, 2019 6:05 pm

I wish we could just upload photos directly just like on dslreports.com.

Edit: Can you talk to management about implementing that idea Schad?

It would be greatly appreciated please & thanks!

BigLeagueChew · Post #163 » by **BigLeagueChew** » Sat Jun 8, 2019 2:47 am

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dagger · Post #164 » by **dagger** » Sat Jun 8, 2019 11:36 am

BigLeagueChew wrote:

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He's already tweeting enthusiastically about the Raptors' win with a #WeTheNorth - will fit in nicely here.

polo007 · Post #165 » by **polo007** » Sun Jun 9, 2019 1:55 am

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vaff87 · Post #166 » by **vaff87** » Sun Jun 9, 2019 1:57 am

We drafted a guy named Jackxarel Lebron? LOL.

Post #167 » by **Schad** » Sun Jun 9, 2019 2:17 pm

Kendall Williams has signed for $144k above slot. Because of the 105% threshold for penalties, we began with about $423k in allowable above-slot spending.

dagger · Post #168 » by **dagger** » Sun Jun 9, 2019 3:19 pm

Schad wrote:Kendall Williams has signed for $144k above slot. Because of the 105% threshold for penalties, we began with about $423k in allowable above-slot spending.

There's one that gets away from Vanderbilt. But Vandy has Kumar Rocker's sensational stuff to console itself for another couple of years. Rocker looks like he'll become the most celebrated draft pitching prospect since Strasburg. Too bad he won't be in the 2020 draft.

Post #169 » by **Cyrus** » Sun Jun 9, 2019 5:00 pm

my fav part of the draft, is the draft signing period, and all the tracking everyone does (Posters). Usually Met or someone sets up the the draft signing tracker, and then does the International IFA signing too.

polo007 · Post #170 » by **polo007** » Mon Jun 10, 2019 2:55 am

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metafisical · Post #171 » by **metafisical** » Mon Jun 10, 2019 5:00 am

2019 Blue Jays MLB Draft Signing Table: https://www.bluebirdbanter.com/2019/6/8/18654443/2019-blue-jays-mlb-draft-signing-table

polo007 · Post #172 » by **polo007** » Mon Jun 10, 2019 9:54 pm

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manjusaka · Post #173 » by **manjusaka** » Mon Jun 10, 2019 11:51 pm

that Canadian kid hasn’t signed yet

-MetA4- · Post #174 » by **-MetA4-** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 2:33 am

Didn't expect this one:

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polo007 · Post #175 » by **polo007** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 6:52 am

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Ong_dynasty · Post #176 » by **Ong_dynasty** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:28 am

any of the late picks attract any of you guys? or guys to watch out for?

dagger · Post #177 » by **dagger** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:20 pm

manjusaka wrote::roll: that Canadian kid hasn’t signed yet

It doesn't list our first rounder, but he has supposedly agreed to terms. Heck, he's even photoshopped himself into a Jays uni as his Twitter avatar.

dagger · Post #178 » by **dagger** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 1:20 pm

Thought of Schad's draft name game when I read this. Looks like the basketball world has the near monopoly on great names this year.

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polo007 · Post #179 » by **polo007** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:31 pm

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Post #180 » by **Schad** » Tue Jun 11, 2019 5:36 pm

So we have a bit more than $500k in above-slot money to play with. Have to imagine that a sizable chunk of that is earmarked for Clarke, as it wouldn't be at all surprising if his ask is ~3rd round money.