2018-19 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[iggymcfrack]

No it's not.
Curry had a much better On/Off and Rapm than Harden in the regular season. His scoring was significantly more efficient. On defensive metrics Curry scores much better than Harden.
Curry actually has been undeniably better than Harden in the playoffs though.

There’s a lot of colinearity with KD and Draymond Green involved in Steph’s plus/minus while Harden played a lot of minutes with really weak lineups as the only scorer. I really doubt that Steph’s defense and Harden’s makes up for the difference between a 24.4 PER and a 30.6 PER in the regular season. Even with playoffs included, Harden still has the higher RPM. My list right now would be:

1. Kawhi (set in stone barring an epically terrible last 2 games)
2. Giannis
3. Harden
4. George
5. Curry (could climb as high as #3 with a fantastic last 2 games and a Warriors comeback)
6. Davis/Jokic/Embiid/Durant

You have no idea if there is any collinearity or not. Curry has been putting up historically great impact numbers for 5 years now now matter who he is playing with.
PER is close to a worthless stat.
RPM includes very little playoff data. It has not updated in a long time. Anyways, it's a black box that should be viewed with significant suspicion.
Your rankings are self contradictory.
Curry was monumentally better than Kawhi in the regular season.
Curry has been massively better than Harden in the playoffs.
There is no rational way to rank both Harden and Kawhi ahead of Curry this year. At most you could choose one.

I don’t buy that Curry has been “massively better” than Harden in the playoffs. I’d consider their playoffs pretty close. Kawhi has been massively better than either.

Kawhi: 28.4 PER with excellent defense, +17.7 on/off
Steph: 22.9 PER with average defense, +13.5 on/off
Harden: 25.3 PER with average defense, +8.4 on/off

[eminence]

Probably a bit generous on all their defenses, unless we're talking strictly in the context of a primary offensive engine.

[Dr Spaceman]

Curry had a worse RS and a worse PS than Harden. Dray had a worse RS and a worse PS than Leonard. I fail to see the case for any Warrior.

On Curry/Harden. RS is undeniably in Harden's favor. But personally I think of the Warriors playoff run as starting in round 2, and I'm not sure either way which player has looked better in the playoffs with that in mind. Dray's disappointing a bit in the finals probably knocked him out even for me.

No it's not.
Curry had a much better On/Off and Rapm than Harden in the regular season. His scoring was significantly more efficient. On defensive metrics Curry scores much better than Harden.
Curry actually has been undeniably better than Harden in the playoffs though.

Harden’s 9 more games and 600 more minutes played this season were absolutely critical. Houston would have legit missed the playoffs without Harden’s extra production and that stretch where he averaged 40 points on 40 minutes per game saved their season. Harden’s RS was significantly better.

[laika]

There’s a lot of colinearity with KD and Draymond Green involved in Steph’s plus/minus while Harden played a lot of minutes with really weak lineups as the only scorer. I really doubt that Steph’s defense and Harden’s makes up for the difference between a 24.4 PER and a 30.6 PER in the regular season. Even with playoffs included, Harden still has the higher RPM. My list right now would be:

1. Kawhi (set in stone barring an epically terrible last 2 games)
2. Giannis
3. Harden
4. George
5. Curry (could climb as high as #3 with a fantastic last 2 games and a Warriors comeback)
6. Davis/Jokic/Embiid/Durant

You have no idea if there is any collinearity or not. Curry has been putting up historically great impact numbers for 5 years now now matter who he is playing with.
PER is close to a worthless stat.
RPM includes very little playoff data. It has not updated in a long time. Anyways, it's a black box that should be viewed with significant suspicion.
Your rankings are self contradictory.
Curry was monumentally better than Kawhi in the regular season.
Curry has been massively better than Harden in the playoffs.
There is no rational way to rank both Harden and Kawhi ahead of Curry this year. At most you could choose one.

I don’t buy that Curry has been “massively better” than Harden in the playoffs. I’d consider their playoffs pretty close. Kawhi has been massively better than either.

Kawhi: 28.4 PER with excellent defense, +17.7 on/off
Steph: 22.9 PER with average defense, +13.5 on/off
Harden: 25.3 PER with average defense, +8.4 on/off

I have stats comprehensively refuting every statement in your post but the post is not finished yet.
I will add this though-
Defensive On/Off shows that Kawhi has been playing zero defense in the finals. He has by far the worst defensive On/Off out of any Raptor. Curry actually has a better defensive On/Off than Draymond. That's how horrible the Warriors have been when Curry doesn't play.
Defensive OnCourt for Finals-
Kawhi on court- 109.7
Kawhi on bench- 87.7
Curry on court- 111.8
Curry on bench- 125.0

[Eskobar13]

I've soured a lot on Leonard the past couple weeks, looking at games and even just the highlights (those extended ones that's basically all scoring) with "different eyes" - I'm also of the opinion he's not the best or most important defender on this team. This would change if he was defending Curry all game or, if Durant was playing and he was always on him, but that's not the case.

That said, just like Timmy I still have him number 1 right now. I thought this was Giannis to lose and I guess he did lose it. Curry could have monster last 2 games and lead his team to a title and I still don't think it would be enough to overtake both Leonard and Giannis - RS difference is just too big IMO. It's not final, but I think my top-10 won't really change.

1 - Leonard
2 - Giannis
3 - Harden
4 - Curry
5 - Jokic
6 - Durant (was on his way to 3 before his injury)
7 - Dray
8 - Embiid (bumped down a lot in the POs)
9 - George
10 - Lillard

Curry can overtake Harden but honestly he seemed close to dead and I think the Raptors will finish this in game 6. Team seems too mentally strong and is just overwhelmingly better right now.


Ps: Lebron has probably 10 years where he'd get it if this was the competition. Maybe more.

[iggymcfrack]

You have no idea if there is any collinearity or not. Curry has been putting up historically great impact numbers for 5 years now now matter who he is playing with.
PER is close to a worthless stat.
RPM includes very little playoff data. It has not updated in a long time. Anyways, it's a black box that should be viewed with significant suspicion.
Your rankings are self contradictory.
Curry was monumentally better than Kawhi in the regular season.
Curry has been massively better than Harden in the playoffs.
There is no rational way to rank both Harden and Kawhi ahead of Curry this year. At most you could choose one.

I don’t buy that Curry has been “massively better” than Harden in the playoffs. I’d consider their playoffs pretty close. Kawhi has been massively better than either.

Kawhi: 28.4 PER with excellent defense, +17.7 on/off
Steph: 22.9 PER with average defense, +13.5 on/off
Harden: 25.3 PER with average defense, +8.4 on/off

I have stats comprehensively refuting every statement in your post but the post is not finished yet.
I will add this though-
Defensive On/Off shows that Kawhi has been playing zero defense in the finals. He has by far the worst defensive On/Off out of any Raptor. Curry actually has a better defensive On/Off than Draymond. That's how horrible the Warriors have been when Curry doesn't play.
Defensive OnCourt for Finals-
Kawhi on court- 109.7
Kawhi on bench- 87.7
Curry on court- 111.8
Curry on bench- 125.0

Playoff on/off is already a pretty small sample. When you start looking at 5 games of on/off data for one side of the ball for a guy who’s averaging 40+ MPG, you’re getting a little ridiculous. So, the Raptors defense has been very good with Kawhi, and they’ve played at an unsustainable level better than any team in history in the very small amount of time Kawhi has sat, likely due in large part to the Warriors bench lacking scoring punch due to their injuries. That shows nothing.

[eminence]

Don't think anybody has had a top tier ATG season this year, so I think we'll wind up with a lot of acceptable orders for this season. As of now I'll likely have fairly different orders depending on who winds up winning the Finals.

[Gibson22]

Malvagio Karma
1) Leonard
2) Steph Curry
3) Harden
4) Antetokounmpo
5) Jokic
6) Embiid
7) Durant
8) Lebron

[E-Balla]

Don't think anybody has had a top tier ATG season this year, so I think we'll wind up with a lot of acceptable orders for this season. As of now I'll likely have fairly different orders depending on who winds up winning the Finals.

Yep. Outside of Kawhi at 1 if they win (I get his regular season was meh but if he leads them to a ring he has to get the top spot the way he's played this postseason) the rest of the top 5 is interchangeable and if Golden State wins the whole top 5 is up for grabs.

[Dr Positivity]

I feel pretty confident saying Curry should be ranked above Leonard. Curry was miles and away more valuable in the regular season where Kawhi wasn't even a top 10 player in value and not the most valuable Raptor, and Curry has had a great finals after humiliating a team in WCF. Kawhi's finals so far is a little worse than his stats, his defense hasn't been the best and outside of the end of Game 4 and Game 5 he has been getting his 30 in a relatively quiet way. (He wasn't at his best eye test wise any of the first three games of the finals despite having 34 in game 2 and 30 in Game 3, and G5 was still an off game statistically for him overall) Voting Kawhi over Curry seems like the definition of just putting the best player on the champion first

[Doctor MJ]

.

How do you feel about Harden's candidacy?

Well, I have a tough time putting Harden ahead of Curry at this point. Maybe I will with the right arguments, but the essence of it for me:

I just think Curry's better than Harden. I think Curry was better in that beta role behind Durant's alpha than Harden would be, and I think Curry's a better alpha than Harden too.

I understand that if you believe Curry's beta role is less impressive than Harden's alpha and you weight that part of the year as an advantage over Curry you probably end up with Harden still ahead, but I don't really think such distinctions are all that meaningful when the reason for the primacy difference was about personal sacrifice for the good of the team.

If I voted right this moment it'd be:

1. Giannis
2. Kawhi
3. Curry
4. Harden
5. somebody (I'll think more about that if people want to have that conversation)

[Doctor MJ]

If the Warriors come back Curry has to get it right?

I probably will.

[Doctor MJ]

I feel pretty confident saying Curry should be ranked above Leonard. Curry was miles and away more valuable in the regular season where Kawhi wasn't even a top 10 player in value and not the most valuable Raptor, and Curry has had a great finals after humiliating a team in WCF. Kawhi's finals so far is a little worse than his stats, his defense hasn't been the best and outside of the end of Game 4 and Game 5 he has been getting his 30 in a relatively quiet way. (He wasn't at his best eye test wise any of the first three games of the finals despite having 34 in game 2 and 30 in Game 3, and G5 was still an off game statistically for him overall) Voting Kawhi over Curry seems like the definition of just putting the best player on the champion first

This is something I"m pondering this to some extent.

I do think everyone needs to pay attention to the fact that the Raptors did so well without Kawhi. This isn't the team people think it is.

On the other hand, as big of a Steph guy as I am, it's really hard for me to use the "but X has the better team around him care" to argue for Curry. I understand that the Warriors are injured so maybe I'll change my mind, but am I just supposed to assume that a healthy Warriors team would win despite the Raptors being clearly better than their record, which was already better than the Warriors' record? It doesn't feel right.

That all goes out the window if the Warriors come back and win, or if Curry outplays Kawhi badly enough to end the series, but right now I'd still go with Kawhi.

[Doctor MJ]

Don't think anybody has had a top tier ATG season this year, so I think we'll wind up with a lot of acceptable orders for this season. As of now I'll likely have fairly different orders depending on who winds up winning the Finals.

Agree. While I think that if Curry were to pull off a miracle here it would raise his already top ATG peak stature higher, there are no flawless diamonds here.

[LKN]

I think it's Giannis, not depending on the outcome of the Finals.

Could've beens;
- Durant's regular season wasn't that strong but he was killing it in the playoffs before going down. Missed nearly half of the GSW games.
- Kawhi is the 2019 Playoffs MVP but it's hard for me to consider someone couldn't care less about regular season.
- Harden had a great regular season and unlike his reputation, I don't think he choked in 2019 playoffs. His team couldn't challenge GSW on 2018 level because they lacked a good defender like Ariza. On an individual level, I'd say he was the best player in GSW-HOU series.

Curry is not in the debate, definitely.

Giannis has a knock on him as the ECF proved he's not the best player. But he had a historic regular season run and he led his team to the ECF.

It's either Giannis or Kawhi at this point, and I'm taking Giannis.

I mean Giannis has the most defensive impact here by a pretty huge margin right? Even with his offensive struggles in the Raptors series he was still a beast on defense and the boards.

[DatAsh]

This is something I"m pondering this to some extent.

I do think everyone needs to pay attention to the fact that the Raptors did so well without Kawhi. This isn't the team people think it is.

I agree with this. I've seen people on here literally saying that Kawhi is carrying scrubs to the finals, talking about how terrible Siakam and Lowry are, and I just don't see it. Kawhi has an incredible supporting cast, imo, as most championship teams do.

am I just supposed to assume that a healthy Warriors team would win despite the Raptors being clearly better than their record

I think it's important to note that this is almost certainly true for the Warriors as well(ignoring the injuries), as it is for basically any team on the verge of a 3 peat; especially given that they've been to 4 finals prior to this.

[nolang1]

I've soured a lot on Leonard the past couple weeks, looking at games and even just the highlights (those extended ones that's basically all scoring) with "different eyes" - I'm also of the opinion he's not the best or most important defender on this team. This would change if he was defending Curry all game or, if Durant was playing and he was always on him, but that's not the case.

That said, just like Timmy I still have him number 1 right now. I thought this was Giannis to lose and I guess he did lose it. Curry could have monster last 2 games and lead his team to a title and I still don't think it would be enough to overtake both Leonard and Giannis - RS difference is just too big IMO. It's not final, but I think my top-10 won't really change.

1 - Leonard
2 - Giannis
3 - Harden
4 - Curry
5 - Jokic
6 - Durant (was on his way to 3 before his injury)
7 - Dray
8 - George
9 - Embiid (bumped down a lot in the POs)
10 - Lillard

Curry can overtake Harden but honestly he seemed close to dead and I think the Raptors will finish this in game 6. Team seems too mentally strong and is just overwhelmingly better right now.


Ps: Lebron has probably 10 years where he'd get it if this was the competition. Maybe more.

How could Embiid have been bumped down a lot in the playoffs? His per 36 numbers were insane in round 1 (more than a point per minute), and the Sixers were decisively better than the Raptors in the minutes he was on the court in round 2. In all likelihood he is the best player on the team that played the champs the closest, and you'd have to be focusing on Ben Simmons' potential much more than his current ability if you think the Sixers' supporting cast is as good as what the Raptors, Bucks, or Warriors have.

[Dupp]

How do people see hardens performance vs the warriors compared to what kawhi has done so far? I think harden had a really underrated series

[Heej]

.

How do you feel about Harden's candidacy?

Well, I have a tough time putting Harden ahead of Curry at this point. Maybe I will with the right arguments, but the essence of it for me:

I just think Curry's better than Harden. I think Curry was better in that beta role behind Durant's alpha than Harden would be, and I think Curry's a better alpha than Harden too.

I understand that if you believe Curry's beta role is less impressive than Harden's alpha and you weight that part of the year as an advantage over Curry you probably end up with Harden still ahead, but I don't really think such distinctions are all that meaningful when the reason for the primacy difference was about personal sacrifice for the good of the team.

If I voted right this moment it'd be:

1. Giannis
2. Kawhi
3. Curry
4. Harden
5. somebody (I'll think more about that if people want to have that conversation)

I agree with your point that Curry is just straight up better than Harden, but I think the fact that he's missed a few more games due to injury and his general level of play coming down after the early season of injury should be factored into the overall "goodness" of the season.

I think we've forgotten the absurd level Harden reached at one point and the load he managed. 30 straight 30 point games, willing his team back into the playoff hunt when CP went down and the season looked lost, basically pulling a Draymond even earlier in the season by activating playoff mode early and forcing himself back into postseason shape instead of loafing through the regular season. Hell, I even think his series vs the Warriors has gotten underrated and he played at least 90% as well vs them as Kawhi is doing right now.

To me when I look back on this year, Harden straight up breaking the game at one point will be one of those things I'll remember for the rest of my life. To have the entire league collectively decide to give him a free stroll down the lane as long as it's with his right hand, because God forbid any other play type outcome, is kinda Twilight Zone-ish to me.

Is Harden the best player in the league? Sadly, no. But, did anyone else this year generate more plays with positive EV this season? No, I genuinely don't think so.

[Dr Spaceman]

.

How do you feel about Harden's candidacy?

Well, I have a tough time putting Harden ahead of Curry at this point. Maybe I will with the right arguments, but the essence of it for me:

I just think Curry's better than Harden. I think Curry was better in that beta role behind Durant's alpha than Harden would be, and I think Curry's a better alpha than Harden too.

I understand that if you believe Curry's beta role is less impressive than Harden's alpha and you weight that part of the year as an advantage over Curry you probably end up with Harden still ahead, but I don't really think such distinctions are all that meaningful when the reason for the primacy difference was about personal sacrifice for the good of the team.

If I voted right this moment it'd be:

1. Giannis
2. Kawhi
3. Curry
4. Harden
5. somebody (I'll think more about that if people want to have that conversation)

I remain unconvinced of this. Houston last year had some jaw-dropping offensive results. Harden/Paul lineups were about equal to the best we’ve ever seen from GSW with or without Durant (125 ORTG) and those lineups with Gordon were well into the stratosphere (130 with Capela at C, 135 with Tucker at C). Realistically if you put 2018 Paul on the 2019 Rockets squad I think they coast to a title and that 2018 team has a legit argument for best non-title winning team ever. If Paul doesn’t get hurt I think we view these guys very different,y.

Also worth noting Houston has never paid the luxury tax in the D’Antoni era while GSW has the most expensive roster in NBA history. We’re basically seeing the mid-00’s Suns crashing into the Spurs every year all over again. That Houston is one of the very best teams with Harden as an alpha while spending pennies compared to every other elite team is a rather big feather in his cap. Harden is able to bootstrap a team of 0s offensively to a +7 offense with a ceiling much, ugh higher with some actual talent alongside him.