Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[nate33]

Arguably being the key word. I would trade Beal for Lillard and possibly Thompson, and that's about it.

Giannis and Gobert are outliers, and you just need to look at the 2014, 2015 and 2016 drafts and see how looking at the draft for answers can seriously stunt your longterm prospects.

When I have a young player that's actually lived up to his potential I'll take the bird in the hand approach over the two in the bush any time.

Lillard has unquestionably been better than Brad -- over his career & last year too. But Lillard is fully 3 years older than Brad! Makes a difference.

Ruz, you wrote Kemba, Klay and Jimmy..." but I assume you meant Kawhi instead of one of the other "K" names.

I certainly would not trade Brad for Klay Thompson. OTOH, Drummond is far more impactful than Beal -- or pretty much any guard outside of Harden & Steph. Take him off of Detroit, & they might not have won 25 games last year.

2012 was one of the worst round 1's in history: of the 27 guys taken from 4-30, 16 of them are out of the league (most never having played much at all). The draft was saved by the guys picked in R2.

Actually, 2014 wasn't nearly as bad as 2012 -- though once again, a lot of the value was in R2: Joe Harris, Johnny O'Bryant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson, Nikola Jokic, &... never forget: our own J McRae!

The idea that "...looking at the draft for answers can seriously stunt your longterm prospects..." makes no sense to me. Trades & FA acquisitions are governed by a free market; in a salary-capped league, how much can they propel your longterm prospects?

I agree with most of that but... you should find a better method to evaluate Klay Thompson - hopefully, you're watching the NBA finals (great basketball and drama) and have watched them the previous 4 years. Imo, Thompson (and Curry) is arguably the best pure shooters in NBA history, an outstanding defender, and has sacrificed his scoring for the benefit of winning championships. And if you're going to start a reply saying you don't want him because he doesn't rebound well for a guard... save the keystrokes for another time. Consider the importance of SPACING - it's a huge part of GS's success.

Spacing doesn't show up in the box score so PIF won't consider it.

[Dat2U]

Lillard has unquestionably been better than Brad -- over his career & last year too. But Lillard is fully 3 years older than Brad! Makes a difference.

Ruz, you wrote Kemba, Klay and Jimmy..." but I assume you meant Kawhi instead of one of the other "K" names.

I certainly would not trade Brad for Klay Thompson. OTOH, Drummond is far more impactful than Beal -- or pretty much any guard outside of Harden & Steph. Take him off of Detroit, & they might not have won 25 games last year.

2012 was one of the worst round 1's in history: of the 27 guys taken from 4-30, 16 of them are out of the league (most never having played much at all). The draft was saved by the guys picked in R2.

Actually, 2014 wasn't nearly as bad as 2012 -- though once again, a lot of the value was in R2: Joe Harris, Johnny O'Bryant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson, Nikola Jokic, &... never forget: our own J McRae!

The idea that "...looking at the draft for answers can seriously stunt your longterm prospects..." makes no sense to me. Trades & FA acquisitions are governed by a free market; in a salary-capped league, how much can they propel your longterm prospects?

This is what relying on a roll up stat gets you, bad analysis and conclusions. This in particular is a really bad conclusion.

Drummond better than any guard outside Steph & Harden???

Drummond ranks 28th in DRPM among Cs. That makes a him a below average defender for the position. If your center is a mediocre or poor defender, your celing is capped.

I'm sure it's the rebounding numbers that make him look good but things like defense and floor spacing really do matter.

Look what Drummond did in the playoffs. He was literally unplayable. Milwaukee took advantage of him at will while attacking the paint.

since drafting Drummond back in 2013. The Pistons rank fourth worst in terms of opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (65.9 percent) this season, and have never come close to breaking into the top half of NBA teams in that particular stat during Drummond’s time as Detroit’s defensive focal point.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/behindthebuckpass.com/2019/04/13/milwaukee-bucks-analyzing-brook-lopez-andre-drummond-matchup/amp/3/

[rl25g]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal

Lakers can either keep Beal or flip him to NO with Ingram for AD.

For the Wiz they Draft Hunter, White and Doumbouya at 4, 6, and 9. They then resign Sato and Bryant.
There team next year would look like this:

Sato/White/Brown
White/Hart/McRae
Hunter/Brown
Warren/Doumbouya/Hunter
Howard/Bryant/Mahinmi

IR Wall

[Ruzious]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal

Lakers can either keep Beal or flip him to NO with Ingram for AD.

For the Wiz they Draft Hunter, White and Doumbouya at 4, 6, and 9. They then resign Sato and Bryant.
There team next year would look like this:

Sato/White/Brown
White/Hart/McRae
Hunter/Brown
Warren/Doumbouya/Hunter
Howard/Bryant/Mahinmi

IR Wall

That's a workable scenario. I would use the picks differently - taking Garland instead of White (I think Garland's going to be a much better pro than White), but I'd be fine with Hunter and Doumbouya as the other picks. The 2 players I'd like to get most in this draft (after 2) are Garland and Sekou, and Hunter would fit very nicely with them.

[nate33]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal

Lakers can either keep Beal or flip him to NO with Ingram for AD.

For the Wiz they Draft Hunter, White and Doumbouya at 4, 6, and 9. They then resign Sato and Bryant.
There team next year would look like this:

Sato/White/Brown
White/Hart/McRae
Hunter/Brown
Warren/Doumbouya/Hunter
Howard/Bryant/Mahinmi

IR Wall

This is worth consideration. I'd also make LA include their 2021 first round pick (top 3 protected).

As an aside, this deal, structured properly, would generate a massive TPE for Washington of about $16M while also giving them plenty of luxtax room. If the Wizards play their cards right, they could absorb someone's large contract by the Trade Deadline and obtain another 1st round pick in the transaction. Assuming they acquired the #19 pick in next year's draft in this manner, and assuming they retained Jabari Parker, their list of assets going forward would look something like this:

PG Garland/Sato
SG Hart/Brown
SF Hunter/Warren
PF Parker/Doumbouya
C Bryant

Assets: 2020 lotto pick (WAS), 2020 #19 pick, 2021 LAL pick.

[long suffrin' boulez fan]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal

Lakers can either keep Beal or flip him to NO with Ingram for AD.

For the Wiz they Draft Hunter, White and Doumbouya at 4, 6, and 9. They then resign Sato and Bryant.
There team next year would look like this:

Sato/White/Brown
White/Hart/McRae
Hunter/Brown
Warren/Doumbouya/Hunter
Howard/Bryant/Mahinmi

IR Wall

This is worth consideration. I'd also make LA include their 2021 first round pick (top 3 protected).

As an aside, this deal, structured properly, would generate a massive TPE for Washington of about $16M while also giving them plenty of luxtax room. If the Wizards play their cards right, they could absorb someone's large contract by the Trade Deadline and obtain another 1st round pick in the transaction. Assuming they acquired the #19 pick in next year's draft in this manner, and assuming they retained Jabari Parker, their list of assets going forward would look something like this:

PG Garland/Sato
SG Hart/Brown
SF Hunter/Warren
PF Parker/Doumbouya
C Bryant

Assets: 2020 lotto pick (WAS), 2020 #19 pick, 2021 LAL pick.

Seems to work all the way around. Love it.

[payitforward]

Lillard has unquestionably been better than Brad -- over his career & last year too. But Lillard is fully 3 years older than Brad! Makes a difference.

Ruz, you wrote Kemba, Klay and Jimmy..." but I assume you meant Kawhi instead of one of the other "K" names.

I certainly would not trade Brad for Klay Thompson. OTOH, Drummond is far more impactful than Beal -- or pretty much any guard outside of Harden & Steph. Take him off of Detroit, & they might not have won 25 games last year.

2012 was one of the worst round 1's in history: of the 27 guys taken from 4-30, 16 of them are out of the league (most never having played much at all). The draft was saved by the guys picked in R2.

Actually, 2014 wasn't nearly as bad as 2012 -- though once again, a lot of the value was in R2: Joe Harris, Johnny O'Bryant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson, Nikola Jokic, &... never forget: our own J McRae!

The idea that "...looking at the draft for answers can seriously stunt your longterm prospects..." makes no sense to me. Trades & FA acquisitions are governed by a free market; in a salary-capped league, how much can they propel your longterm prospects?

This is what relying on a roll up stat gets you, bad analysis and conclusions. This in particular is a really bad conclusion.

Drummond better than any guard outside Steph & Harden???

Drummond ranks 28th in DRPM among Cs. That makes a him a below average defender for the position. If your center is a mediocre or poor defender, your ceiling is capped.

I'm sure it's the rebounding numbers that make him look good but things like defense and floor spacing really do matter.

Look what Drummond did in the playoffs. He was literally unplayable. Milwaukee took advantage of him at will while attacking the paint.

since drafting Drummond back in 2013. The Pistons rank fourth worst in terms of opponent field goal percentage in the restricted area (65.9 percent) this season, and have never come close to breaking into the top half of NBA teams in that particular stat during Drummond’s time as Detroit’s defensive focal point.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/behindthebuckpass.com/2019/04/13/milwaukee-bucks-analyzing-brook-lopez-andre-drummond-matchup/amp/3/

You may be right, but I wasn't relying on a roll up stat. OTOH, dat, you just did! -- or do you think DRPM isn't a roll-up? Of course it is. What else could it be?

I was looking at what Drummond does & what the rest of the guys on the Pistons do.

Detroit got 45 rebounds per 48 minutes last year; accordingly, they got to take fewer shots per game than their opponents. But Drummond got 22.3 rebounds per 48 minutes. How many shots do they get to take per game if you take away Drummond's rebounds?

It's worse than that: both Reggie Jackson & Blake Griffin have declined precipitously (just look at their raw numbers year on year). Not that Jackson was ever all that good, but Griffin was. &, in fairness, Griffin scored well this year. But look at boards vs. turnovers this year & over his career for starters.

Now look at how everyone else on that team shoots, boards, etc. Yikes! Aside from Drummond & Griffin (despite his late-career decline), Detroit's roster might be the worst in the league. Certainly it's close to the worst.

In other words, looking at the team's numbers is why I wrote "Take him (Drummond) off of Detroit, & they might not have won 25 games last year."

Go take a look at those team numbers yourself, & tell me if you would be able to disagree with that statement. Or with my claim above that once past Drummond & Griffin, the roster is a complete shambles.

&... that's what I meant by talking about his impact. The Pistons won 41 games this year. If their roster had consisted of Luke Kennard, Zaza Pachulia, Langston Galloway, Reggie Bullock, Wayne Ellington, Bruce Brown Jr., Ish Smith, Jose Calderon, Jon Leuer, Thon Maker, Reggie Jackson, & Glenn Robinson III... how many games would they have won?

Looking at the numbers again, I think 25 wins was optimistic. Maybe 20 without Drummond.

[payitforward]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal
...

Too much from Phoenix? It's too little from Phoenix -- way too little. Lonzo Ball was taken #2 in 2017 & is already quite a good player. He's worth a lot more than Phoenix's #6 pick this year & T.J. Warren.

Warren has played 6 seasons & shown no particular improvement. Plus, he's guaranteed a reasonably sizable salary for the next 3 years. No thanks.

If we were to do this deal, we'd do it directly with the Lakers. I think I'd keep Ball, but we could trade him for more than the Phoenix package if/when we decided to.

So... is Ball, Hart & this year's #4 enough to get for Brad? As nate suggests, I'd certainly try to get LA's 2021 pick. With that, yes. Without it, I'm not 100% sure.

[darmani]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal

Lakers can either keep Beal or flip him to NO with Ingram for AD.

For the Wiz they Draft Hunter, White and Doumbouya at 4, 6, and 9. They then resign Sato and Bryant.
There team next year would look like this:

Sato/White/Brown
White/Hart/McRae
Hunter/Brown
Warren/Doumbouya/Hunter
Howard/Bryant/Mahinmi

IR Wall

This is not remotely close for the Suns.

[Shoe]

[tweet]

Read on Twitter

?s=20[tweet]

[Ruzious]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal
...

Too much from Phoenix? It's too little from Phoenix -- way too little. Lonzo Ball was taken #2 in 2017 & is already quite a good player. He's worth a lot more than Phoenix's #6 pick this year & T.J. Warren.

Warren has played 6 seasons & shown no particular improvement. Plus, he's guaranteed a reasonably sizable salary for the next 3 years. No thanks.

If we were to do this deal, we'd do it directly with the Lakers. I think I'd keep Ball, but we could trade him for more than the Phoenix package if/when we decided to.

So... is Ball, Hart & this year's #4 enough to get for Brad? As nate suggests, I'd certainly try to get LA's 2021 pick. With that, yes. Without it, I'm not 100% sure.

Why do you say Ball's already quite a good player? Other than rebounding well for a guard, what has he done well - when he's managed to stay healthy? And his father is a detriment to whatever team Lonzo's on. Also, he's the worst FT shooting guard in the NBA and makes up for it (?) by getting to the line so infrequently. I think he's lost considerable trade value since he was drafted.

[Illmatic12]

[tweet]

Read on Twitter

?s=20[tweet]

It's incredible how many casual fans devalue Beal . Zach Lowe also shot down the rumors on his latest pod and said Beal is too good to be considered an option for the #4 pick.

I haven't seen anyone reputable in the media even suggest that Wiz should trade Beal for these crappy fan-made offers

Read on Twitter

[scoobs07]

Lakers fan here, what would you all want from the Lakers for Beal?

[pcbothwel]

Lakers fan here, what would you all want from the Lakers for Beal?

Not particularly interested in your assets, and it seems all but sure you're getting AD...so i dont see the point of having the convo.
That said, I would take the AD package with the eye on moving BI/Kuzma to a 3rd team for another asset.

So its 4, Ball, and one of Kuz/BI, along with another future 1st.... But again, it depends on what asset the third team would send us for BI.

[Ruzious]

Lakers fan here, what would you all want from the Lakers for Beal?

The offer's gotta start with the 4th pick and Ingram, and we''d ask for add-ons like Hart and a future pick. You keep Kuzma and Ball for another trade.

[Ruzious]

Intrusting - but can't see anything happening without a high-powered GM. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nba/report-pelicans-targeting-bradley-beal-as-part-of-anthony-davis-trade/ar-AACQcVW

[payitforward]

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball...

This is not remotely close for the Suns.

Really? Who do you slot in at #6 -- Coby White? DeAndre Hunter? Lets say White -- but please suggest anyone you prefer.

In which case, it's Coby White & T.J. Warren for Lonzo Ball, right? You don't think that's "remotely close?"

T.J. Warren is a below average, mid-career NBA wing (though he did shoot the ball well this year). He doesn't add any value to the trade to speak of.

As a matter of interest, what do you think you should get for the #6 pick? With Warren and/or without Warren.

[payitforward]

Was trades Beal:
Was Receives: Warren, 4, 6, Hart

Gets a good haul for Beal and can start over with some good youth.

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball

Not sure if it is too much from PHX but it gets them PG that will fit very well in the system and with Booker.

LA Trades: Ball, Hart, # 4
LA Receives: Beal
...

Too much from Phoenix? It's too little from Phoenix -- way too little. Lonzo Ball was taken #2 in 2017 & is already quite a good player. He's worth a lot more than Phoenix's #6 pick this year & T.J. Warren.

Warren has played 6 seasons & shown no particular improvement. Plus, he's guaranteed a reasonably sizable salary for the next 3 years. No thanks.

If we were to do this deal, we'd do it directly with the Lakers. I think I'd keep Ball, but we could trade him for more than the Phoenix package if/when we decided to.

So... is Ball, Hart & this year's #4 enough to get for Brad? As nate suggests, I'd certainly try to get LA's 2021 pick. With that, yes. Without it, I'm not 100% sure.

Why do you say Ball's already quite a good player? Other than rebounding well for a guard, what has he done well - when he's managed to stay healthy? And his father is a detriment to whatever team Lonzo's on. Also, he's the worst FT shooting guard in the NBA and makes up for it (?) by getting to the line so infrequently. I think he's lost considerable trade value since he was drafted.

Fair question, since he's an absolutely awful shooter overall (his 3pt. % this year was a relative bright spot -- it was only bad, not "absolutely awful"). Nor am I a fan of Lonzo. But, he's above average as a pg (which means "good"). I'll just deal w/ his rookie numbers.

If we think of offensive rebounds minus turnovers plus steals as a combination that represents a player's effect on ball possession for his team, Lonzo was much better than an average PG. An average pg is at -.34 per 40 minutes. Lonzo was +.5

Lonzo got 56% more defensive boards per 40 minutes than an average PG. 25% more assists than an average PG. 2.4 times as many blocks. Committed slightly fewer fouls.

All that stuff combined more than made up for his ridiculously bad shooting to leave him clearly above average overall. I.e. "good."

Now... that was only possible because his usage was so low. & if one guy's usage is low, other guys' usage must be higher, which, presumably, puts pressure on their efficiency. But we're talking a few shots a game overall, so the effect is small.

What's absolutely true about Lonzo is that the only way he can possibly develop further as a player is to become a much better shooter. & that's a pretty big argument against trading for him -- e.g. I wouldn't trade for him.

But, when we are talking about T.J. Warren &, say, Coby White... that's not much to give. Even though you are right that he's lost value, he's still worth more than that.

[darmani]

Phoenix trades: Warren, # 6
Phoenix Receives: Ball...

This is not remotely close for the Suns.

Really? Who do you slot in at #6 -- Coby White? DeAndre Hunter? Lets say White -- but please suggest anyone you prefer.

In which case, it's Coby White & T.J. Warren for Lonzo Ball, right? You don't think that's "remotely close?"

T.J. Warren is a below average, mid-career NBA wing (though he did shoot the ball well this year). He doesn't add any value to the trade to speak of.

As a matter of interest, what do you think you should get for the #6 pick? With Warren and/or without Warren.

Lonzo Ball is a replacement level backup PG with several red flags (shooting from anywhere on the court and from the free throw line, inability to run the pick-and-roll and break down the defense off the dribble, health, LaVar's antics). There's no guarantee he will ever be as good as TJ Warren is right now. Ball's doesn't fit with Booker and Ayton and I wouldn't want him for free. He's not worth the salary he's getting paid.

[payitforward]

This is not remotely close for the Suns.

Really? Who do you slot in at #6 -- Coby White? DeAndre Hunter? Lets say White -- but please suggest anyone you prefer.

In which case, it's Coby White & T.J. Warren for Lonzo Ball, right? You don't think that's "remotely close?"

T.J. Warren is a below average, mid-career NBA wing (though he did shoot the ball well this year). He doesn't add any value to the trade to speak of.

As a matter of interest, what do you think you should get for the #6 pick? With Warren and/or without Warren.

Lonzo Ball is a replacement level backup PG with several red flags (shooting from anywhere on the court and from the free throw line, inability to run the pick-and-roll and break down the defense off the dribble, health, LaVar's antics). There's no guarantee he will ever be as good as TJ Warren is right now. Ball's doesn't fit with Booker and Ayton and I wouldn't want him for free. He's not worth the salary he's getting paid.

I'm not a Lakers fan, & I'm not a Lonzo Ball fan, so I don't have much motivation to argue with you.

In fact, on reflection, I probably agree with you. At this point you are better off adding someone at #6 than trading the pick.

As a matter of interest, who do you think your team should take @ #6?