Do you think Golden State Warriors should refuse to offer Kevin Durant a max-contract?

[Drygon]

According to Woj, Durant will opt-in as the last resort for Warriors if he doesn't get any max contract from any other team.

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But if Durant opts ut and testing the market, GSW can offer him a 5-year contract worth an estimated $221 million.



https://knicksfilmschool.com/2018/10/26/how-do-the-knicks-create-enough-cap-space-to-sign-kevin-durant/

Personally, I think they should refuse to offer Kevin Durant an multi-year max contract.

I mean, we're talking about a guy who won't even play basketball again until he's 32 at the start of 2020-21 season. And not only that, Achilles injuries really require 2 years of healing time before you even know how well someone's recovered. The first year back is spent just trying to get your body acclimated to playing again. Your range and strength during that first year back are nowhere near what they used to be and then there's the whole psychological and mental components to the recovery as well.

So we're really looking at the 2021/22 season (3 seasons from now) before we truly know if Durant will ever be great again. He'll be 34 y/o at that point. 34! And that's if he even manages to stay healthy during that time which is far from guaranteed.

It would cost the Warriors the rest of Curry's, Klay's, (if he re-signs with GSW) & Dray's prime years to waste over $120M over the next 3 years on Durant who won't immediately return to his previous level & help the team win a title during that time. 3 years!

Like I said in the beginning, Durant has a $31.5M player option for next season that he's free to opt into. No other team will be willing to give him anything close to a long-term max contract this summer, so he's extremely lucky to have that massive player option to fall back on. That more than makes up for his injury right now - he wouldn't get a contract this summer if he was a free agent now. He'll actually get paid $31.5M next season just to rehab - that's more than enough compensation for him getting hurt.

[jamesnamida]

1. If KD wants to come back, you max him out.
2. Over the cap anyways, wouldn't be able to improve the roster with KD's salary space after maxing out Klay.
3. I don't care how much extra money Light Years Ahead and his rich ownership group will have to fork up in luxury tax. The warriors already doubled their value, and he's going to reap in $$ from the new stadium.
4.

[Admiral-Kizaru]

Give him the full max if he wants it.

[statsman]

According to Woj, Durant will opt-in as the last resort for Warriors if he doesn't get any max contract from any other team.

Not possible it happens this way, at least right now. Durant needs to decide by June 30 whether to opt in or not, before free agency starts. Now, I guess it would be possible for Durant and the Warriors to agree to extend the opt in, but without checking the CBA, I am not sure whether that is allowed.

[donkeylips]

Give him whatever he wants. He’s worth the risk

[michaelm]

I would max him anyway, but if it is him or nothing which is basically the choice, with some prospect of him being available for the next play-offs, it is a no-brainer. I don't think they win the next title without him, and basically they can't really replace him in any way, shape or form because they are over the cap regardless as I understand things.

[likemycurryhot]

Heck no!

[TinoDubs]

The Dubs will be max out either KD opt-in or not. KD can opt-out then do another 2 yrs deals with us again. I say give him whatever he wants.

[KevinMcreynolds]

[cladden]

Absolutely

[jaymo123]

You have to because if you don't, current players and free agents will question GSW tactics.

[a8bil]

I say give him the max, for two reasons: First, I think everyone's case studies on what happens to players who tear their achilles are fundamentally flawed. Medicine has advanced since players like Wilkins tore his, Kobe was on his last legs when he tore his (and then immediately broke his tibial plateau), and Boogie is a lard--not fat shaming, but he's carrying a lot of weight that he has to get back into NBA shape and even when he does, his weight will always put more stress on his ligaments than KD's frame will. I predict KD will come back to 100% of what he was pre-injury.

Second, I'm no capologist, but I think that retaining KD is the only way GSW can maintain the franchise, which they need to do going to the chase center. If they don't re-sign KD, max Klay and near max Green, how does GSW re-load any talent? Absent a trade of the big 3, GSW would be stuck in NBA purgatory -- good enough to go deep in the playoffs each year, but too thin talent-wise to win it all. If there is a way for GSW to sign another good player when they will be so far over the cap with Steph, Klay and Dray, I'ld like to hear it. But without another path, I think they have to sign KD.

[israelfirst]

i think kd will come back. championships are the best thing for his legacy and he has to know he isnt going to win anything playing with kyrie in new york

[wco81]

We have to separate basketball reasons for offering him the max from any kind of moral obligation.

But there may be a good chance he is going elsewhere and if they’re reasonably sure he’s leaving, offer it to him for PR reasons.

It may not make a difference for the team’s cap whether he stays or not.

[Money_]

He's not leaving, he loves it here. He wants that statue.
You offer Kevin Durant anything he wants to stay. Low balling him doesn't help the team in any way.
You cannot turnaround the few million you shave off an offer and redirect to a new player.
If he rehabs as fast as Kobe did, he'll be back by March/April 2020
The Warriors will have very few options for improving the team, if Kevin Durant leaves.
Basically the team we've been seeing over the past month.

[xdrta+]

He's not leaving, he loves it here. He wants that statue.
You offer Kevin Durant anything he wants to stay. Low balling him doesn't help the team in any way.
You cannot turnaround the few million you shave off an offer and redirect to a new player.
If he rehabs as fast as Kobe did, he'll be back by March/April 2020
The Warriors will have very few options for improving the team, if Kevin Durant leaves.
Basically the team we've been seeing over the past month.

Well, the team we're seeing over the past month is in the Finals. Most franchises would take that in a heartbeat. I think a big part of why most would offer KD a max is sentiment, whether guilt or appreciation, and I don't think it's a good reason. Sure, the W's are over the cap next year, without much to work with, but the following year Iguodala comes off the books, decisions will have to be made on Draymond and, besides Steph and Klay, the entire roster will have to be revamped. I wouldn't tie up $45-50M for the following 4 yrs in an unknown quantity, which is what a 32-35 year old Durant is right now.

One implication of the injury I don't see mentioned, is that it possibly makes a sign-and-trade more plausible. A team like the Clippers could keep their cap space to sign Kawhi, for instance, enticing him with the promise of Durant the next year. Durant might agree to it for the chance to team up with Kawhi. A deal could be centered around Gallinari to the W's, possibly with Williams which would open more space for the Clips. Still a longshot, but IMO, more likely than before.

[Sleepy51]

I say yes, for two reasons: First, I think everyone's case studies on what happens to players who tear their achilles are fundamentally flawed. Medicine has advanced since players like Wilkins tore his, Kobe was on his last legs when he tore his (and then immediately broke his tibial plateau), and Boogie is a lard--not fat shaming, but he's carrying a lot of weight that he has to get back into NBA shape and even when he does, his weight will always put more stress on his ligaments than KD's frame will. I predict KD will come back to 100% of what he was pre-injury..

I don't know if 100% is reasonable, but I certainly expect him to still be a max player. The thing people also never realize about these injuries is that a year long recovery and rest period means a 2 year "return to form" best case. When the player comes back in the first season, they are never in basketball shape. Not even close. So then you need a full offseason after your surgically repaired bodypart is healthy to really work on the rest of your body. Then you have the 2nd season to get in true basketball shape and start to get your timing and NBA reflexes back. In our short attention span world everybody passes judgement the first time they see the guy back on the court and then forget to watch them in season two for progress and anything resembling a return to form. Rudy Gay has come back extremely well from his surgery. He isn't a volume scorer anymore because the game has left ball-pounding midrage iso scorer's behind. Physically he has been extremely close to pre-injury form

Two years from now if KD is under contract for another 3 years we are going to be happy as pigs in slop and approaching the Russell Celtics pantheon of all time dominance. If KD is willing to come back we are blessed.

[wco81]

Warriors have to see whether revenues will be the same at Chase as they were projected to be, with them not having KD next year no matter what and unlikely to be dominating like they are.

Kerr is not going to make the stars burn up minutes but it also means more opponents are just going to try to clamp down hard on Curry and Klay, without another scoring threat on the team.

[whatisacenter]

yes, I don't even think about it twice.

[Samurai]

With the obvious caveat that it isn't my money, I think it makes good sense for both the Warriors and KD to sign a max with us. If we don't, he obviously leaves (he can leave even if we offer him a max, but it becomes guaranteed if we don't). So if he leaves, we're already over the cap; who are we going to sign that can possibly come close to replicating what he provides? If we can just make the playoffs, there is a chance he could be back at some point during the playoffs.

For KD, the biggest concern is whether he will be the same player or a lesser version of him. On another team, he could face some negative reactions if he isn't quite the same player. On this team, we don't need him to be the same guy. In game 5, for the 12 minutes he played he was basically just a spot-up shooter; he didn't attempt to iso anyone until the injury. And just having KD standing at the 3-point line made a huge difference between having Dray, Andre, McKinnie, Bell, standing out there. So if his game and role needs to be adjusted, having someone like Curry to run the offense through makes it easier for him to redefine himself as a player. Having a passer like Draymond helps. Having another shooter like Klay helps. So there would be less pressure on him if he stayed here than being on a lesser team where they need him to be the same guy as he was pre-injury.

From a business standpoint, the quality of some of the players on a max are....well, let's say very different from KD. I mean, Harrison Barnes signed a max contract! I would take 75% of KD over 100% of Barnes. Signing KD to a max may not be as much of a great deal as it would have been without the injury, but when looking at the landscape of other "max players", KD still looks like a pretty good bargain.