2019 Draft Thread

[RogerMurdock]

Just caught my first Stepian Podcast, a deep dive on all the international guys. Not the smoothest conversation but good analysis. I’d be very cool taking my guy Alen Smailagić at 30 or trading back for him. Huge sleeper potential.

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Thanks for posting this. I'm a long-time fan of the Deadhead Bill Waltons!

[emunney]

I like what I see out of Dylan Windler from an offensive standpoint. The guy has a quick release on his shot and a sniper from beyond the arc. Don't know what he's like on the defensive end of the court.

I feel so lost with the draft this year. I've never been this out of touch on prospects as I am this year.

It's a lot like 2016 imo.

[LuessiT]

I feel very comfortable in this draft. Feels very easy to get a good player at 30.

[emunney]

I feel very comfortable in this draft. Feels very easy to get a good player at 30.

Don't you feel like this every year, though? And it's always true that there are good players available anywhere in the 1st round. It's just a matter of whether your team will pick them or not. As usual, I feel just ok about that last crucial step.

[emunney]

My basic decision hierarchy on 1st round picks:

1) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an all-star or near all-star, that's the pick. ELSE
2) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an average starter, that's the pick. ELSE
3) If there's somebody who you feel certain can play for you right now, that's the pick. ELSE
4) Trade that ****.

[Badgerlander]

My basic decision hierarchy on 1st round picks:

1) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an all-star or near all-star, that's the pick. ELSE
2) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an average starter, that's the pick. ELSE
3) If there's somebody who you feel certain can play for you right now, that's the pick. ELSE
4) Trade that ****.

This ELSE guy sounds like he has all the bases covered, got any film on him?

[LuessiT]

I feel very comfortable in this draft. Feels very easy to get a good player at 30.

Don't you feel like this every year, though? And it's always true that there are good players available anywhere in the 1st round. It's just a matter of whether your team will pick them or not. As usual, I feel just ok about that last crucial step.

There are always ranges in which I think it's easy to identify a good pick and ranges in which it is hard. This year I'd feel very uncomfortable drafting in the 6-12 range. If I was in that range I'd look to draft Sekou, Bitadze or trade out. Late first feels like a good chance to get a player that outplays the value of the pick. I'd feel even better drafting just a few spots earlier. Depending how the draft shapes out I think the second round will be pretty dire.

[ReasonablySober]

My basic decision hierarchy on 1st round picks:

1) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an all-star or near all-star, that's the pick. ELSE
2) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an average starter, that's the pick. ELSE
3) If there's somebody who you feel certain can play for you right now, that's the pick. ELSE
4) Trade that ****.

You have your hierarchy backwards.

[LuessiT]

My basic decision hierarchy on 1st round picks:

1) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an all-star or near all-star, that's the pick. ELSE
2) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an average starter, that's the pick. ELSE
3) If there's somebody who you feel certain can play for you right now, that's the pick. ELSE
4) Trade that ****.

Regarding trading the pick imo you have to compare the trade value of your pick to the expectency of your draft selection. Looking back at it, it's probably more often than not smart to trade the pick.

[emunney]

My basic decision hierarchy on 1st round picks:

1) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an all-star or near all-star, that's the pick. ELSE
2) If there's somebody you think has a realistic chance at becoming an average starter, that's the pick. ELSE
3) If there's somebody who you feel certain can play for you right now, that's the pick. ELSE
4) Trade that ****.

Regarding trading the pick imo you have to compare the trade value of your pick to the expectency of your draft selection. Looking back at it, it's probably more often than not smart to trade the pick.

My guess would be that if you took all the pick for player trades and added them all up, it'd come out pretty much even. I'd expect more volatility from the picks but players changing teams can be that way too.

[bizarro]

How long ago was Okeke's ACL injury? Would he be ready for the season or would he redshirt his rookie year?

It would most likely be a post-ASB maybe. He injured his ACL in the Sweet 16? Best bet would be let him redshirt and work w Suki. Like a 2nd first rounder in 2020.

Or a 1st 1st rounder, as the case may be.

You wascally wabbit

[Ruzious]

I like what I see out of Dylan Windler from an offensive standpoint. The guy has a quick release on his shot and a sniper from beyond the arc. Don't know what he's like on the defensive end of the court.

I feel so lost with the draft this year. I've never been this out of touch on prospects as I am this year.

He nearly beat MD by himself in the NCAA tournament, but that was his only good game against a good opponent. I think he'd be a good pick for the Bucks. He actually hits the boards pretty well for a 3 - isn't strictly a 1 dimentional sniper.

[LuessiT]

Just to show that I think we'll get a chance to get a good draft pick in:

Players that I would take that will most likely be gone: 13
Zion
Morant
Barrett
Garland
Culver
Hunter
White
Reddish
Sekou
Hayes
Bitadze
NAW
Johnson

Players that I'm not sure I would take that will most likely be gone: 7
Clarke
Bol
Washington
Little
Langford
Hachimura
Thybulle

Players that could be available at our pick that I'd be very happy with: 6
Porter
Herro
Samanic
Kabengele
KZ Okpala
Bazley
_____

Total of 26. So we need 3 players I didn't name picked ahead of us to be able to get one of these.

Players that could be available at our pick that I could end up liking:
King
Okeke
Obiesie
Smailagic

[mke_design]

Why don’t we just say **** it and draft Jontay Porter?


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[M-C-G]

Why don’t we just say **** it and draft Jontay Porter?


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My hope is we can buy a second round pick and make that happen...those knees are scaryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy but he would be a nice fit.

[Douggystyle29]

I feel very comfortable in this draft. Feels very easy to get a good player at 30.

Same. There is about a dozen players around 30 I would be happy getting.

[leroyjw10]

Why don’t we just say **** it and draft Jontay Porter?


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He's currently my #1. He feels like the kind of pick the Spurs would make during their peak. Super talented and smart player who falls because of injury or some other random reason that scares teams off. The coaching/training staff then turns him into an extremely valuable contributor, leaving the rest of the league shaking their head.

[LuessiT]

Why don’t we just say **** it and draft Jontay Porter?


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My hope is we can buy a second round pick and make that happen...those knees are scaryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy but he would be a nice fit.

That is a bad idea. Unless you use part of the MLE to sign him you can't offer more than a 2 year minimum contract. So best case he's entirely healthy and puts up good numbers in season 2 and he immediately hits RFA. If you really like Porter you draft him at 30.

[emunney]

Why don’t we just say **** it and draft Jontay Porter?


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My hope is we can buy a second round pick and make that happen...those knees are scaryyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy but he would be a nice fit.

That is a bad idea. Unless you use part of the MLE to sign him you can't offer more than a 2 year minimum contract. So best case he's entirely healthy and puts up good numbers in season 2 and he immediately hits RFA. If you really like Porter you draft him at 30.

If he's healthy and puts up good numbers in year 2 and is a sought after RFA -- I feel like that's a pretty good outcome! We can either match him or let him walk having invested a roster spot for one year to get good numbers another year for peanuts. What am I missing?

Anyway I think the fact that he tore his ACL before he could even return to the court is very bad and we should look elsewhere even if we buy a pick (Witherspoon and Jeffries both look like guys who might be able to fill in some minutes with enough feel and athleticism to continue improving).

[machu46]

I was never high on Jontay even before the knee issues, so you probably know based on that that he's not the guy I would want to spend a purchased 2nd round pick on.