Finals TV ratings discussion

[RyderMike]

With so many Raptors fans watching in the various 50 Jurrasic Parks, the Canadian ratings are probably lower than actually watched

[Courtside]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/254210/2019-NBA-Finals-Ratings-Up-From-2017-2018

*sigh*

A 6-game NBA Finals will always outdraw a 4-game sweep or a 5-game series (which is what we got in 2018 & 2017). The extra games is the only reason it averaged an overall higher series rating.

FYI:

https://awfulannouncing.com/ratings/nba-finals-game-6-posts-a-13-2-overnight-rating-down-from-game-5-and-middle-of-the-pack-relative-to-previous-game-6-ratings.html

Thursday’s Raptors-Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 earned a 13.2 overnight rating on ABC, down 6% from 2016 (14.1) and down 17% from 2015 (15.9), both of which were Warriors-Cavaliers matchups. There were no comparable games last year or in 2017.

The 13.2 is the lowest for a Game 6 in the NBA Finals since Celtics-Lakers in 2010 (12.3), but overall ranks a middle-of-the-road fifth out of the last ten (dating back to 2000). It trails the two Warriors-Cavaliers games, Spurs-Heat in 2013 (14.7) and Mavericks-Heat in 2011 (15.0).

This. Some people don’t like facts. The finals were ok from ratings perspective but nothing spectacular. For abc the Canadian ratings do not matter, and since espn and tnt are paying 3bn they are more important than the Canadian network.

What's interesting to me is that a series with a team that isn't even in the US managed to out draw a series where the Lakers and Celtics were involved, two of the league's darling franchises that are constantly promoted and get more national games than almost anyone.

The network narrative that it doesn't benefit them to show Raptor games or promote them in ways they do with other teams seems to be false. Being on the same footing would give the team a better chance at attracting and keeping players, and earning their place at the table with more regularity.

We'll have to see how the international numbers look and whether it benefits the league in a bigger picture way, beyond the US network finances.

[Percentsign]

*sigh*

A 6-game NBA Finals will always outdraw a 4-game sweep or a 5-game series (which is what we got in 2018 & 2017). The extra games is the only reason it averaged an overall higher series rating.

FYI:

https://awfulannouncing.com/ratings/nba-finals-game-6-posts-a-13-2-overnight-rating-down-from-game-5-and-middle-of-the-pack-relative-to-previous-game-6-ratings.html

Thursday’s Raptors-Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 earned a 13.2 overnight rating on ABC, down 6% from 2016 (14.1) and down 17% from 2015 (15.9), both of which were Warriors-Cavaliers matchups. There were no comparable games last year or in 2017.

The 13.2 is the lowest for a Game 6 in the NBA Finals since Celtics-Lakers in 2010 (12.3), but overall ranks a middle-of-the-road fifth out of the last ten (dating back to 2000). It trails the two Warriors-Cavaliers games, Spurs-Heat in 2013 (14.7) and Mavericks-Heat in 2011 (15.0).

This. Some people don’t like facts. The finals were ok from ratings perspective but nothing spectacular. For abc the Canadian ratings do not matter, and since espn and tnt are paying 3bn they are more important than the Canadian network.

What's interesting to me is that a series with a team that isn't even in the US managed to out draw a series where the Lakers and Celtics were involved, two of the league's darling franchises that are constantly promoted and get more national games than almost anyone.

The network narrative that it doesn't benefit them to show Raptor games or promote them in ways they do with other teams seems to be false. Being on the same footing would give the team a better chance at attracting and keeping players, and earning their place at the table with more regularity.

We'll have to see how the international numbers look and whether it benefits the league in a bigger picture way, beyond the US network finances.

Basketball as a whole is more popular in 2019 than it was in 2010. That might explain why 2019 Finals had a better rating than 2010.

[LeMasta]

With so many Raptors fans watching in the various 50 Jurrasic Parks, the Canadian ratings are probably lower than actually watched

I'm pretty certain they account for that too

[Kurtz]

This. Some people don’t like facts. The finals were ok from ratings perspective but nothing spectacular. For abc the Canadian ratings do not matter, and since espn and tnt are paying 3bn they are more important than the Canadian network.

What's interesting to me is that a series with a team that isn't even in the US managed to out draw a series where the Lakers and Celtics were involved, two of the league's darling franchises that are constantly promoted and get more national games than almost anyone.

The network narrative that it doesn't benefit them to show Raptor games or promote them in ways they do with other teams seems to be false. Being on the same footing would give the team a better chance at attracting and keeping players, and earning their place at the table with more regularity.

We'll have to see how the international numbers look and whether it benefits the league in a bigger picture way, beyond the US network finances.

Basketball as a whole is more popular in 2019 than it was in 2010. That might explain why 2019 Finals had a better rating than 2010.

Yes, but not a lot of people were streaming in 2010 compared to now.

The TV ratings will continue to decline as more folks turn to streaming. It's increasingly becoming an obsolete metric to judge series interest.

[Ambrose]

A new finals matchup outdrew the 3rd and 4th matchups in a row between the same teams? No way!

[Blacksheep25]

I mean, supposedly there were like 8 or 9 million Canadian viewers, iirc. It seems like that should count for a lot.

I know it isn't "American TV ratings," but at a certain point, isn't basing the Finals' popularity on American ratings kind of like evaluating a player based on a single, limited metric? Doesn't it totally miss the point?

It doesn’t miss the point, if it’s a bit short-siighted. Clearly growing the sport has value to the NBA. How much value remains to be seen. To what degree all these Canadian casuals who never watched the NBA or even know the rules become actual fans is the question that will answer how valuable. If it was a one off sensation similar to Olympic sports where people were watching a sport they’d never watch otherwise to cheer for the flag, then it’s not very valuable.

If they created any significant number of new fans of the sport that last and don’t disappear if Kawhi leaves or the Raptors struggle, then the value comes during the next rights negotiation between the NBA and their Canadian broadcasters.

That said, a few percentage points rise in the Canadian market isn’t really worth anywhere close to what having two storied teams and two popular superstars is when the NBA’s eyes are on China. A few years ago they had 640 million people watch something NBA over the year in China. That’s what the NBA covets in the long term. Monetizing that is the golden goose.

It’s kind of like the premier league here in the US. Like a decade ago they started showing it a lot. So I start watching it as i was getting older and not hung over and sleeping in every Saturday and Sunday morning. If I was up I’d turn it on. I talk to a lot of people in the UK. Obviously it’s religion there. I’d always laugh because I had literally every game going on available to me. They’d have like one option or game of the day. It was so valuable over there’s that I’m sure they could charge infinite amounts of money for their single game. I had every game because the channel on my cable was paying pennies for the rights. That went on for a decade. Just this last year the coverage here was scaled back a bit and they added a pay option for some games. I paid it because it wasn’t much and I have grown to follow my team to the point I don’t want to miss it. But even being someone willing to pay, I’m watching the same five teams play each other, or play against a lesser premier league team. Almost never am I watching two relatively unknown to me teams playing. I’m not tuning in for Watford v Wolverhampton. I’m a fan of a team, generally like the sport, and I’ll watch Man U v Man City despite not being fans of either, but not those unknown teams.

The NBA is like that internationally. They’re generally probably almost giving it away as far as TV rights. The per capita income in China is such that they need the country to get hooked in such a way that it turns into $.

It’s why when the Raptors make it the American stations are like meh...this sucks. Silver is more guarded. He’d prefer it to be Lebron v Curry or Lebron v Giannis every year because it makes more money and people all over. The casual in China will watch it because they know the names like I’ll watch Man U. I’m not a diehard. I won’t watch just anything. So Silver is guarded because it’s a case where at least Curry and GS is there and who knows, maybe it will expand the game in Canada? It’s not two marquee teams with super popular stats because Kawhi is a quiet star, but it’s hard to lose when the game keeps growing internationally. America is still by far the most important market, but they desperately want to make it #2 in the world so they can charge premier league Tv money eventually to every country and sell merchandise. That’s a long term goal though.

[kb24k]

*sigh*

A 6-game NBA Finals will always outdraw a 4-game sweep or a 5-game series (which is what we got in 2018 & 2017). The extra games is the only reason it averaged an overall higher series rating.

FYI:

https://awfulannouncing.com/ratings/nba-finals-game-6-posts-a-13-2-overnight-rating-down-from-game-5-and-middle-of-the-pack-relative-to-previous-game-6-ratings.html

Thursday’s Raptors-Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 earned a 13.2 overnight rating on ABC, down 6% from 2016 (14.1) and down 17% from 2015 (15.9), both of which were Warriors-Cavaliers matchups. There were no comparable games last year or in 2017.

The 13.2 is the lowest for a Game 6 in the NBA Finals since Celtics-Lakers in 2010 (12.3), but overall ranks a middle-of-the-road fifth out of the last ten (dating back to 2000). It trails the two Warriors-Cavaliers games, Spurs-Heat in 2013 (14.7) and Mavericks-Heat in 2011 (15.0).

This. Some people don’t like facts. The finals were ok from ratings perspective but nothing spectacular. For abc the Canadian ratings do not matter, and since espn and tnt are paying 3bn they are more important than the Canadian network.

What's interesting to me is that a series with a team that isn't even in the US managed to out draw a series where the Lakers and Celtics were involved, two of the league's darling franchises that are constantly promoted and get more national games than almost anyone.

The network narrative that it doesn't benefit them to show Raptor games or promote them in ways they do with other teams seems to be false. Being on the same footing would give the team a better chance at attracting and keeping players, and earning their place at the table with more regularity.

We'll have to see how the international numbers look and whether it benefits the league in a bigger picture way, beyond the US network finances.

Comparing apples to oranges. The league is more popular now. In 2008-2010 league was coming after those spurs years when the ratings were plummeting. It grew steadily since then, thanks to kobe/lakers/Celtics/lebron/warriors and some great series in 2010, 2013 and 2016

[scrabbarista]

I mean, supposedly there were like 8 or 9 million Canadian viewers, iirc. It seems like that should count for a lot.

I know it isn't "American TV ratings," but at a certain point, isn't basing the Finals' popularity on American ratings kind of like evaluating a player based on a single, limited metric? Doesn't it totally miss the point?

It doesn’t miss the point, if it’s a bit short-siighted. Clearly growing the sport has value to the NBA. How much value remains to be seen. To what degree all these Canadian casuals who never watched the NBA or even know the rules become actual fans is the question that will answer how valuable. If it was a one off sensation similar to Olympic sports where people were watching a sport they’d never watch otherwise to cheer for the flag, then it’s not very valuable.

If they created any significant number of new fans of the sport that last and don’t disappear if Kawhi leaves or the Raptors struggle, then the value comes during the next rights negotiation between the NBA and their Canadian broadcasters.

That said, a few percentage points rise in the Canadian market isn’t really worth anywhere close to what having two storied teams and two popular superstars is when the NBA’s eyes are on China. A few years ago they had 640 million people watch something NBA over the year in China. That’s what the NBA covets in the long term. Monetizing that is the golden goose.

It’s kind of like the premier league here in the US. Like a decade ago they started showing it a lot. So I start watching it as i was getting older and not hung over and sleeping in every Saturday and Sunday morning. If I was up I’d turn it on. I talk to a lot of people in the UK. Obviously it’s religion there. I’d always laugh because I had literally every game going on available to me. They’d have like one option or game of the day. It was so valuable over there’s that I’m sure they could charge infinite amounts of money for their single game. I had every game because the channel on my cable was paying pennies for the rights. That went on for a decade. Just this last year the coverage here was scaled back a bit and they added a pay option for some games. I paid it because it wasn’t much and I have grown to follow my team to the point I don’t want to miss it. But even being someone willing to pay, I’m watching the same five teams play each other, or play against a lesser premier league team. Almost never am I watching two relatively unknown to me teams playing. I’m not tuning in for Watford v Wolverhampton. I’m a fan of a team, generally like the sport, and I’ll watch Man U v Man City despite not being fans of either, but not those unknown teams.

The NBA is like that internationally. They’re generally probably almost giving it away as far as TV rights. The per capita income in China is such that they need the country to get hooked in such a way that it turns into $.

It’s why when the Raptors make it the American stations are like meh...this sucks. Silver is more guarded. He’d prefer it to be Lebron v Curry or Lebron v Giannis every year because it makes more money and people all over. The casual in China will watch it because they know the names like I’ll watch Man U. I’m not a diehard. I won’t watch just anything. So Silver is guarded because it’s a case where at least Curry and GS is there and who knows, maybe it will expand the game in Canada? It’s not two marquee teams with super popular stats because Kawhi is a quiet star, but it’s hard to lose when the game keeps growing internationally. America is still by far the most important market, but they desperately want to make it #2 in the world so they can charge premier league Tv money eventually to every country and sell merchandise. That’s a long term goal though.

Good post. I just have a couple of comments. First, I didn't follow the clause beginning with "but they desperately want to make it #2." What were you saying there?

Second, I'm generally skeptical of almost all things China-related. I lived there in 2008-2009 and have followed the country in the news very closely since then - on an almost daily basis. I also spent more than six years living in East Asia. I'm not an China expert or a "China hand," but I know much more than your average geek off the streets. Based on my experience living there, the popularity of basketball was already being way overblown in 2009 (the number commonly cited at the time was 300 million "fans" or players or both). I lived in Shanghai, a city of more than 20 million, and only saw one basketball hoop during my thirteen months in the city, and it was on like a 1/4 sized court in an apartment complex. I guess it's possible there were hidden indoor gyms all over the place, but I didn't see any. I knew only two people who claimed to be NBA fans. One was a girl who thought Kobe was hot and didn't watch games (and has since emigrated), and the other was the "normal" Chinese NBA fan: his favorite team was the only team that was on TV, the Rockets, and his favorite player was Tracy McGrady, the star guard/wing on that team. The government controls everything it possibly can in China, and the Rockets were on TV because Yao's presence was supposed to fuel nationalistic fervor. That's truly the only reason. That's not to say money doesn't talk in China as everywhere, but the situation there is unique due to the dictatorial nature of the government and its consuming lust for power. In the business world, this amounts to arbitrary "regulation," i.e., freedom only exists until it doesn't, or until you stop siding with the authoritarian regime. I'm not joking when I say that if the CCP saw the NBA as a threat to nationalistic enthusiasm, they could and would simply ban it. I don't think that would ever happen, but only because I don't think the NBA would be seen as that kind of threat - not because the government wouldn't do it in a blink. Besides questioning the basketball fandom of Chinese people and the complete untrustworthiness of the overreaching CCP, I also question any financial numbers coming from China. There's an enormous amount of fudging that goes on with all official figures (which are usually a source for unofficial estimates), and the entire country is built around creating a facade of prosperity that doesn't stand up to close scrutiny. This is relevant on many fronts, but I mention it specifically in regard to the per capita numbers, which absolutely must be taken with a grain of salt. I say that from firsthand experience as well as documented evidence. I'm not trying to bash the people of China, many many of whom I found to be warm, thoughtful, and kind. I still have friends from my time there, and happy memories with many Chinese people will stay with me forever. Nonetheless, it is a deeply, deeply messed up country, I'm sorry to say. I don't say this to make a specific point about the NBA's future there. Just as food for thought.

Also, I should add that China changes incredibly quickly, so some things based on my own experience (the level of wealth, the popularity of basketball) may have changed considerably in ten years, though I'm sure that the fact that both are exaggerated hasn't. With that said, the fundamentals (the emphasis on facade over substance, fudging numbers, etc.) haven't changed, and everyone who knows the country agrees that the domestic political situation is far, far worse now than it was ten years ago.

[Johnny Bball]

Near double it.

Read on Twitter

[Ben Simmons]

I wonder what Jay Williams is saying now....
He said the fans want SuperTeams and that they don't want to see teams with only one superstar

[Tor_Raps]

Near double it.

Read on Twitter

I wonder where the ratings would stack up if you combined US and Canada.

[13th Man]

Wow, nearly half of the country tuned into this game that's impressive!

[Mind_Odyssey]

I wonder what Jay Williams is saying now....
He said the fans want SuperTeams and that they don't want to see teams with only one superstar

He’s another espn doucher.

I don’t think that network actually understand what fans want.

[theSkinny]

https://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/254210/2019-NBA-Finals-Ratings-Up-From-2017-2018

*sigh*

A 6-game NBA Finals will always outdraw a 4-game sweep or a 5-game series (which is what we got in 2018 & 2017). The extra games is the only reason it averaged an overall higher series rating.

FYI:

https://awfulannouncing.com/ratings/nba-finals-game-6-posts-a-13-2-overnight-rating-down-from-game-5-and-middle-of-the-pack-relative-to-previous-game-6-ratings.html

Thursday’s Raptors-Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 earned a 13.2 overnight rating on ABC, down 6% from 2016 (14.1) and down 17% from 2015 (15.9), both of which were Warriors-Cavaliers matchups. There were no comparable games last year or in 2017.

The 13.2 is the lowest for a Game 6 in the NBA Finals since Celtics-Lakers in 2010 (12.3), but overall ranks a middle-of-the-road fifth out of the last ten (dating back to 2000). It trails the two Warriors-Cavaliers games, Spurs-Heat in 2013 (14.7) and Mavericks-Heat in 2011 (15.0).

This. Some people don’t like facts. The finals were ok from ratings perspective but nothing spectacular. For abc the Canadian ratings do not matter, and since espn and tnt are paying 3bn they are more important than the Canadian network.

ESPN has a 20% stake in the Canadian sports network TSN... so ESPN cares a little.

[MessiahUjiri]

A new finals matchup outdrew the 3rd and 4th matchups in a row between the same teams? No way!

Actually, rivalries make for great storylines, and are good for ratings.

That this series outdrew the last 2 years despite the ratings excluding the Canadian market is a big deal!

Jeeebus some people can never be happy.

[Banner18]

America is tired of Prince James.

[Seralin]

People just got tired of watching LeBron lose.

Or people just got tired of watching GSW win, and wanted them to lose, as simple as that. Even if the opposing team was Lebron-less Cavs, Hornets, or any other, and they were in the same situation as Raptors, people were going to tune in to see the Warriors lose.

[radeonboy]

Parity is fun

[Sixerscan]

People just got tired of watching LeBron lose.

Or people just got tired of watching GSW win, and wanted them to lose, as simple as that. Even if the opposing team was Lebron-less Cavs, Hornets, or any other, and they were in the same situation as Raptors, people were going to tune in to see the Warriors lose.

There was a game 6 in this series, there wasn't one the last few years. That's it.