Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[prime1time]

What do people think about Frank Ntilkina? 6'6, 7'1 wingspan and only 20 years old. I think he has skill, but he ended up on the worst possible franchise. If we take Sekou at 9, I'd love to try to make something happen for Frank given that they are good friends and both from France. Not sure if we have any assets though.

[nate33]

What do people think about Frank Ntilkina? 6'6, 7'1 wingspan and only 20 years old. I think he has skill, but he ended up on the worst possible franchise. If we take Sekou at 9, I'd love to try to make something happen for Frank given that they are good friends and both from France. Not sure if we have any assets though.

They will be interesting in maximizing their cap room. I think we could get Ntilikina from them for free just by offering to absorb his salary with one of our trade exceptions. This assumes they manage to land two max caliber free agents, and that one of them is a PG (Kyrie or Kemba, presumably).

I don't have much desire to obtain Ntilikina because he can't shoot. But if the cost is nothing, it might be worth a shot. It depends how much luxtax room we have leftover after resigning Bryant, Sato and maybe Parker or some other MLE level free agent.

[payitforward]

Lillard has unquestionably been better than Brad -- over his career & last year too. But Lillard is fully 3 years older than Brad! Makes a difference.

Ruz, you wrote Kemba, Klay and Jimmy..." but I assume you meant Kawhi instead of one of the other "K" names.

I certainly would not trade Brad for Klay Thompson. OTOH, Drummond is far more impactful than Beal -- or pretty much any guard outside of Harden & Steph. Take him off of Detroit, & they might not have won 25 games last year.

2012 was one of the worst round 1's in history: of the 27 guys taken from 4-30, 16 of them are out of the league (most never having played much at all). The draft was saved by the guys picked in R2.

Actually, 2014 wasn't nearly as bad as 2012 -- though once again, a lot of the value was in R2: Joe Harris, Johnny O'Bryant, Spencer Dinwiddie, Jerami Grant, Glenn Robinson, Nikola Jokic, &... never forget: our own J McRae!

The idea that "...looking at the draft for answers can seriously stunt your longterm prospects..." makes no sense to me. Trades & FA acquisitions are governed by a free market; in a salary-capped league, how much can they propel your longterm prospects?

I agree with most of that but... you should find a better method to evaluate Klay Thompson - hopefully, you're watching the NBA finals (great basketball and drama) and have watched them the previous 4 years. Imo, Thompson (and Curry) is arguably the best pure shooters in NBA history, an outstanding defender, and has sacrificed his scoring for the benefit of winning championships. And if you're going to start a reply saying you don't want him because he doesn't rebound well for a guard... save the keystrokes for another time. Consider the importance of SPACING - it's a huge part of GS's success.

Spacing doesn't show up in the box score so PIF won't consider it.

Just noticed this....

Of course, spacing shows up in the boxscore! It has to, doesn't it?

I'm being serious. Presumably, spacing leads to more open shots. Open shots are made at a higher % than other shots, right? So, spacing will lead to players having higher 2 point & 3 point percentages. Right?

There's nothing wrong with that argument. How could I or anyone not take it seriously? Of course -- & again I'm being serious -- you'd have to find data to support it, & I don't see why it would be difficult to know where to look for that data.

[nate33]

I agree with most of that but... you should find a better method to evaluate Klay Thompson - hopefully, you're watching the NBA finals (great basketball and drama) and have watched them the previous 4 years. Imo, Thompson (and Curry) is arguably the best pure shooters in NBA history, an outstanding defender, and has sacrificed his scoring for the benefit of winning championships. And if you're going to start a reply saying you don't want him because he doesn't rebound well for a guard... save the keystrokes for another time. Consider the importance of SPACING - it's a huge part of GS's success.

Spacing doesn't show up in the box score so PIF won't consider it.

Just noticed this....

Of course, spacing shows up in the boxscore! It has to, doesn't it?

I'm being serious. Presumably, spacing leads to more open shots. Open shots are made at a higher % than other shots, right? So, spacing will lead to players having higher 2 point & 3 point percentages. Right?

There's nothing wrong with that argument. How could I or anyone not take it seriously? Of course -- & again I'm being serious -- you'd have to find data to support it, & I don't see why it would be difficult to know where to look for that data.

When you look at a player, do you take the time to look at his teammates' shooting percentages when he is on the floor versus when he is off?

I don't think you do, because you consistently imply that guys like Andre Roberson and Jeremy Lamb are better than Bradley Beal.

[payitforward]

What do people think about Frank Ntilkina? 6'6, 7'1 wingspan and only 20 years old. I think he has skill, but he ended up on the worst possible franchise. If we take Sekou at 9, I'd love to try to make something happen for Frank given that they are good friends and both from France. Not sure if we have any assets though.

They will be interesting in maximizing their cap room. I think we could get Ntilikina from them for free just by offering to absorb his salary with one of our trade exceptions. This assumes they manage to land two max caliber free agents, and that one of them is a PG (Kyrie or Kemba, presumably).

I don't have much desire to obtain Ntilikina because he can't shoot. But if the cost is nothing, it might be worth a shot. It depends how much luxtax room we have leftover after resigning Bryant, Sato and maybe Parker or some other MLE level free agent.

Not only can't he shoot, but he also doesn't do anything else well. I'd rather use the trade exception for something else.

[prime1time]

What do people think about Frank Ntilkina? 6'6, 7'1 wingspan and only 20 years old. I think he has skill, but he ended up on the worst possible franchise. If we take Sekou at 9, I'd love to try to make something happen for Frank given that they are good friends and both from France. Not sure if we have any assets though.

They will be interesting in maximizing their cap room. I think we could get Ntilikina from them for free just by offering to absorb his salary with one of our trade exceptions. This assumes they manage to land two max caliber free agents, and that one of them is a PG (Kyrie or Kemba, presumably).

I don't have much desire to obtain Ntilikina because he can't shoot. But if the cost is nothing, it might be worth a shot. It depends how much luxtax room we have leftover after resigning Bryant, Sato and maybe Parker or some other MLE level free agent.

At 20 he's a project. So it'd be a situation where the new GM had a high grade on him, and believed that given a change of scenery he could be better. Not so much different from when we picked up Thomas Bryant.

[prime1time]

What do people think about Frank Ntilkina? 6'6, 7'1 wingspan and only 20 years old. I think he has skill, but he ended up on the worst possible franchise. If we take Sekou at 9, I'd love to try to make something happen for Frank given that they are good friends and both from France. Not sure if we have any assets though.

They will be interesting in maximizing their cap room. I think we could get Ntilikina from them for free just by offering to absorb his salary with one of our trade exceptions. This assumes they manage to land two max caliber free agents, and that one of them is a PG (Kyrie or Kemba, presumably).

I don't have much desire to obtain Ntilikina because he can't shoot. But if the cost is nothing, it might be worth a shot. It depends how much luxtax room we have leftover after resigning Bryant, Sato and maybe Parker or some other MLE level free agent.

Not only can't he shoot, but he also doesn't do anything else well. I'd rather use the trade exception for something else.

He hasn't shown the ability so shoot yet, but looking at the numbers he shot 31.8% from three his first year and dropped down. At the same time however, his ft shooting went up to 76.7%. At 20 or 21 years old I think we could afford to give a kid a chance. His size and length at the pg position is just so tantalizing. Even if we don't pick him up, I hope he leaves NYC and gets a legit opportunity somewhere else. He is way too young to be written off.

[prime1time]

Well given the massive trade that the Pelicans just completed and their purported interest in Beal. I think we have to take a serious look at the Pelicans and ask ourselves what would a Beal trade look like.

[nate33]

Well given the massive trade that the Pelicans just completed and their purported interest in Beal. I think we have to take a serious look at the Pelicans and ask ourselves what would a Beal trade look like.

Hmmm.

If they could send Ball to Phoenix for the #6, they could have Beal for the #4, the #6, Ingram and the 2021 Lakers pick.

Draft Garland, Hunter and Clark, and that would leave us with:

PG Garland/Brown
SG Ingram/Brown
SF Hunter/Ingram
PF Parker/Clarke
C Bryant

It might take a while for that team to gel, but that's a lot of good young players. Garland, Ingram, Parker and Bryant can score in this league, and Hunter, Brown and Clark can defend. Next summer, we add a high lotto pick and John Wall.

[pcbothwel]

Well given the massive trade that the Pelicans just completed and their purported interest in Beal. I think we have to take a serious look at the Pelicans and ask ourselves what would a Beal trade look like.

With the Pelicans? I want EVERYTHING they just got except they can keep one of Ball/Ingram and one the picks (Not 4). Otherwise...Bye

[payitforward]

Spacing doesn't show up in the box score so PIF won't consider it.

Just noticed this....

Of course, spacing shows up in the boxscore! It has to, doesn't it?

I'm being serious. Presumably, spacing leads to more open shots. Open shots are made at a higher % than other shots, right? So, spacing will lead to players having higher 2 point & 3 point percentages. Right?

There's nothing wrong with that argument. How could I or anyone not take it seriously? Of course -- & again I'm being serious -- you'd have to find data to support it, & I don't see why it would be difficult to know where to look for that data.

When you look at a player, do you take the time to look at his teammates' shooting percentages when he is on the floor versus when he is off?

I don't think you do, because you consistently imply that guys like Andre Roberson and Jeremy Lamb are better than Bradley Beal.

?? I've never said that Andre Roberson is "better than Bradley Beal," nate. In fact, I'm not sure that I've ever said anything about Andre Roberson until now.

Plus, "guys like Andre Roberson and Jeremy Lamb" would seem to imply that those 2 guys are similar in some way. Are they? What am I missing?

Jeremy Lamb is quite a good player, however. I'm curious: have you looked at "his teammates' shooting percentages when he is on the floor versus when he is off?" I'll be interested to see what you find. I ask that especially because we're talking about spacing the floor, right? Lamb's 3-pt. % last year was 34.8% compared to Brad's 35.1%. & -- though he didn't take as many 3's as Brad did, he took a lot of them.

If that's where the spacing benefit comes from, then Brad's 1.7 more 3's per 40 minutes is, presumably, the source of it. Is that what you mean? &, assuming you look up the on/off numbers of his teammates, does Brad have an advantage that could have that as its source.

Lamb is a high usage player, though not as high as Brad. Like Brad he's an above average NBA scorer -- though Brad's TS% is slightly higher than Lamb's & so is his usage. On their careers, Brad scores just over 3 points more than Lamb per 40 minutes -- but the difference is definitely widening. Or at least it was wider last season.

Whatever -- there is no question that Brad is the better scorer, though Lamb is also very good. &, Brad's extra 3 pt. attempts might well provide an indirect benefit to the team via helping improve teammates' FG%'s via more open shots.

But, why stop there? Brad is also a much better playmaker than Jeremy Lamb. He had almost 2 times Lamb's assists both this year & last, for example. The two guys had virtually identical numbers in steals & offensive rebounds -- in each case those numbers really should be counted in offensive efficiency along with TS%.

If this was all there was to look at, even leaving out the advantage we can both presume in Brad's on/off effect on teammate shooting percentages & especially if it turns out to be worth considering (which I think it would), then not only would Brad be a better guard than Lamb -- he'd be a way way better guard, & Lamb wouldn't be particularly effective.

But there are 2 areas where Lamb is actually a fair amount better than Brad. For one thing, Lamb is an outstanding defensive rebounder. Last year he got almost 60% more defensive boards than Brad. Since we're specifically looking at the effect on teammates & team of each player, Lamb gets his teammates more shots. Basically, as we all know, positivity in basketball, i.e. winning, comes from either, or both, of having more shots and/or shooting a higher %. If Brad helps via spacing, Lamb helps via rebounding, no?

Plus, Brad turned the ball over more than twice as often as Lamb last year (let me remind you that Lamb is a high usage guy -- though not as high as Brad). There too, Lamb delivered an advantage over Brad. I.e. counting the extra turnovers, ...oh forget it, I don't feel like doing the arithmetic in my head, so let me jump right to the conclusion:

...but wait: one other advantage to Brad. The guy has become a genuine ironman. Lamb played almost 2300 minutes this season, which is pretty good -- but Brad played over 3000! Which led the league by 160 minutes.

Back to the conclusion: most people would say that Bradley Beal is a better player than Jeremy Lamb, & I would agree with them. But most people would also say that Jeremy Lamb is quite a good player, & I'd agree with them too.

Or, to put the matter slightly differently... what's your point, nate?

[payitforward]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

[doclinkin]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

Beal:

http://www.82games.com/1819/18WAS7.HTM#onoff

Lamb:

http://www.82games.com/1819/18CHA7.HTM#onoff


It’s imprecise since that’s the total team eFG with Brad on court. So it includes his contribution when he’s on court. But it does show clearly that the team shot worse when he was off court.

[Ruzious]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

Thing is - just because we don't know how to measure it - it doesn't follow that we should ignore it, right? I think everyone else appreciates/understands that.

[nate33]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

I came across this article about Steph Curry's ability to help his teammates score efficiently without actually being the guy making the assist, and I noticed Bradley Beal's name in one of the graphics. It seems that Bradley Beal is one of the best in the league at this too. Not in Curry's league to be sure, but better than most. Only Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Cousins(?) and Thompson look better (and Thompson's impact is probably conflated with Curry's). Here is the graphic:

Once again, we can contrast Curry’s stats with his peers’ — this time using the league’s best scorers as the comparison group (i.e., the 30 players with the highest scoring averages over the past four seasons combined). Take a look at the average improvement in teammate true shooting percentage (weighted by field goal attempts) when each star player is on the court. Curry’s impact is unparalleled. He’s responsible for both of the top two seasons, including last year’s astounding +8.0 TS%. Even his least impressive seasons (+4.7 TS%) eclipse the best efforts from all but three of the league’s other biggest stars (LeBron James, Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins).

I'd be curious if those two red dots on the right end of Beal's line represent the last two seasons, or are they from seasons past.

With respect to PIF, this is why I consider Beal better than Porter. His actual box score stats may be less efficient, but his presence makes life a lot easier for his teammates. Defenses have to account for what Beal is doing at all times. Just by setting the right back screen, he can force defenses into awkward switches and missed rotations that open up the floor for everyone else.

[payitforward]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

Beal:

http://www.82games.com/1819/18WAS7.HTM#onoff

Lamb:

http://www.82games.com/1819/18CHA7.HTM#onoff

It’s imprecise since that’s the total team eFG with Brad on court. So it includes his contribution when he’s on court. But it does show clearly that the team shot worse when he was off court.

Thanks, I'll take a look. Note that there's one other source of fuzziness -- not only does Brad take away the contribution of his own shooting percentage when he's off the court, but we also inevitably substitute someone for him. If that guy has a lower % than Brad's -- & especially if it's lower than the guys he's on the court with -- that too lowers the team's FG% with him off court.

In fact, come to think of it, that almost has to be the single biggest source of the decline. I.e. it's the one largest change.

You'd have to figure out how to factor it out. I don't see why this would be especially difficult, but it would be a bit time-consuming I think.

Another way to approach it would be from the other side. E.g. look at other players individually & see how their usage & FG% differ with Brad on the court & with Brad off the court.

This is a genuinely interesting subject.

[payitforward]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

Thing is - just because we don't know how to measure it - it doesn't follow that we should ignore it, right? I think everyone else appreciates/understands that.

I agree 100%. It's common sense -- did I ever say it wasn't worth investigating?

Plus, as I wrote a moment ago, I don't think it would be complicated to measure it. That is... it would be complicated for you or me to measure it, but not for someone who is an experienced user of statistical software like SAS.

[Ruzious]

So, nate -- what are Beal's teammates' FG% when he's on the floor vs. when he's off the floor? Ditto, Lamb's teammates?

Alternatively, how would I research this myself -- I'd do it if I knew how to do it.

Thing is - just because we don't know how to measure it - it doesn't follow that we should ignore it, right? I think everyone else appreciates/understands that.

I agree 100%. It's common sense -- did I ever say it wasn't worth investigating?

Plus, as I wrote a moment ago, I don't think it would be complicated to measure it. That is... it would be complicated for you or me to measure it, but not for someone who is an experienced user of statistical software like SAS.

Seriously? That issue has been brought up a million times with you for a reason. You completely ignore it - time after time.

[payitforward]

I came across this article about Steph Curry's ability to help his teammates score efficiently without actually being the guy making the assist, and I noticed Bradley Beal's name in one of the graphics. It seems that Bradley Beal is one of the best in the league at this too. Not in Curry's league to be sure, but better than most. Only Curry, Lebron, Westbrook, Cousins(?) and Thompson look better (and Thompson's impact is probably conflated with Curry's). Here is the graphic:

Once again, we can contrast Curry’s stats with his peers’ — this time using the league’s best scorers as the comparison group (i.e., the 30 players with the highest scoring averages over the past four seasons combined). Take a look at the average improvement in teammate true shooting percentage (weighted by field goal attempts) when each star player is on the court. Curry’s impact is unparalleled. He’s responsible for both of the top two seasons, including last year’s astounding +8.0 TS%. Even his least impressive seasons (+4.7 TS%) eclipse the best efforts from all but three of the league’s other biggest stars (LeBron James, Thompson, and DeMarcus Cousins).

I'd be curious if those two red dots on the right end of Beal's line represent the last two seasons, or are they from seasons past.

With respect to PIF, this is why I consider Beal better than Porter. His actual box score stats may be less efficient, but his presence makes life a lot easier for his teammates. Defenses have to account for what Beal is doing at all times. Just by setting the right back screen, he can force defenses into awkward switches and missed rotations that open up the floor for everyone else.

This is outstanding information. I wish we had the follow up from this season as well.

This was definitely relevant to the exchange about Beal vs. Porter that we were having back then. & it's certainly an aspect of Beal's good play that isn't captured by his own stats (unless maybe a little bit by the high level of assists he posts for a 2).

I'm not sure how relevant it is to anything we're discussing now -- since I wouldn't dream of maintaining that "guys like Jeremy Lamb and Andre Roberson" are better than Beal, as someone suggested. But, since this is the trade thread, it's solid support for the high price one would want for Brad in a trade.

(& look how far down the list Anthony Davis is....)

[Rafael122]

I would probably do Beal for Ingram/Ball/2019 1st/Future 1st at this point. Other than the Clippers, there's no other team with a war chest as expansive as New Orleans.

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Also that's interesting. Ersan will make $7 million next season. Wizards have an $8.6 million TPE. His salary is guaranteed June 22 so they could get Milwaukee's 30th pick and cut him two days later. Bucks have no second round picks in the near future.