2019 NBA draft part deux

[Klomp]

Time to do some math with some context. Towns in the post our most efficient offense. Brandon Clarke a 28% college 3 point shooter and 50% college mid range shooter. Is not being guarded from mid range. They send a defender to double Towns. Would you rather have those percentages and allow our most efficient offense to be shut down. Or a 35% NBA 3 point shooter.

For the record, Towns on 2-pointers away from the rim is only 44.6% for his NBA career, compared to the 52.8% Clarke put up last year....

[Mattya]

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

[Mattya]

Time to do some math with some context. Towns in the post our most efficient offense. Brandon Clarke a 28% college 3 point shooter and 50% college mid range shooter. Is not being guarded from mid range. They send a defender to double Towns. Would you rather have those percentages and allow our most efficient offense to be shut down. Or a 35% NBA 3 point shooter.

For the record, Towns on 2-pointers away from the rim is only 44.6% for his NBA career, compared to the 52.8% Clarke put up last year....

and does anyone here argue that Towns should be taking 2 pointers away from the rim outside of bail out shots?

[Klomp]

Time to do some math with some context. Towns in the post our most efficient offense. Brandon Clarke a 28% college 3 point shooter and 50% college mid range shooter. Is not being guarded from mid range. They send a defender to double Towns. Would you rather have those percentages and allow our most efficient offense to be shut down. Or a 35% NBA 3 point shooter.

For the record, Towns on 2-pointers away from the rim is only 44.6% for his NBA career, compared to the 52.8% Clarke put up last year....

and does anyone here argue that Towns should be taking 2 pointers away from the rim outside of bail out shots?

You just said you don't want someone taking the ball away from Towns in the post. So unless he gets less than 3 feet from the rim (layups, dunks) on 100% of his post-ups, I guess he's taking either a lot of bail-out shots or he's hurting the offense by taking bad shots.

But hey, if that's what you want over someone who's 50% inside the arc at his worst....

[KGdaBom]

I told you I already gave up on you weeks ago. There is no progress to be had. You give me the excuses to point out your garbage arguments.

You really don't think the shooting percentage when guarded or wide open matters?

What happens to a team's offense when one player isn't guarded from mid range and only shoots 50% from there.

Time to do some math with some context. Towns in the post our most efficient offense. Brandon Clarke a 28% college 3 point shooter and 50% college mid range shooter. Is not being guarded from mid range. They send a defender to double Towns. Would you rather have those percentages and allow our most efficient offense to be shut down. Or a 35% NBA 3 point shooter.

35% x 3 equal 1.05 points per shot.
52.8% x2 = 1.056 it's the same.
Would it be nice if Clarke could shoot 35% or better from 3? YES DUH. He's still a highly efficient scorer. You just want to argue. I finally figured out we are in virtually 100% agreement on Clarke. His primary weakness is that he isn't a floor spacer. Maybe he will some day. His strengths outweigh his weaknesses.

Except one offers more spacing for Towns than the other. It is why people worry about floor spacing? The point you tried to equate to Brandon Clarke's FG% primarily as a roller on offense. If we lose our most efficient offense for a player that is only shooting 50% from roughly free throw range our offense is going to stagnate.

Yep. Shooting from 3 does pull a defender further away from the basket if the defense is guarding you and that has certain beneficial aspects to the offense as a whole. On the other hand do you realize that most players don't make 52.8% on 15 footers? Most players don't have the great touch on shots around the basket that Clarke does either. Despite his lack of shooting 3s well he has been a very efficient scorer. I get that he doesn't have the bulk to push people around in the paint. However, he has been incredibly successful in the paint during his college career. Some people think the lack of bulk and reach will prevent him from being a player in the NBA. I go far more off being a player than the lack of size measurables. Since you have him being the second best reasonable pick for the Wolves you must agree with me on a lot of this or you would be among those who disagree with me.

[Mattya]

For the record, Towns on 2-pointers away from the rim is only 44.6% for his NBA career, compared to the 52.8% Clarke put up last year....

and does anyone here argue that Towns should be taking 2 pointers away from the rim outside of bail out shots?

You just said you don't want someone taking the ball away from Towns in the post. So unless he gets less than 3 feet from the rim (layups, dunks) on 100% of his post-ups, I guess he's taking either a lot of bail-out shots or he's hurting the offense by taking bad shots.

But hey, if that's what you want over someone who's 50% inside the arc at his worst....

Um wuttt?

He took 85.6% of his shots from beyond 3 or within 10 ft of the rim. So what point are you even attempting to make here.

[KGdaBom]

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

So are you expecting Clarke to become a huge bust? I thought you just said he was your second favorite wolves option and considering Doumbouya is probably gone you have him as your #1 Wolves option. You are confusing me.

[KGdaBom]

and does anyone here argue that Towns should be taking 2 pointers away from the rim outside of bail out shots?

You just said you don't want someone taking the ball away from Towns in the post. So unless he gets less than 3 feet from the rim (layups, dunks) on 100% of his post-ups, I guess he's taking either a lot of bail-out shots or he's hurting the offense by taking bad shots.

But hey, if that's what you want over someone who's 50% inside the arc at his worst....

Um wuttt?

He took 85.6% of his shots from beyond 3 or within 10 ft of the rim. So what point are you even attempting to make here.

Clarke is smart enough to take efficient shots. He doesn't take long 2s and he doesn't take 3s because he sucks at those. He takes midrange and in shots. He is working on becoming at least an adequate 3 point shooter. He may or may not ever succeed at that. I say he's going to be a good player if he doesn't. He's going to be a great player if he does.

[Killboard]

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

I did watch a lot of better 3pt shooters than Draymond who would have been hurted the warriors a lot more.

[Mattya]

Yep. Shooting from 3 does pull a defender further away from the basket if the defense is guarding you and that has certain beneficial aspects to the offense as a whole. On the other hand do you realize that most players don't make 52.8% on 15 footers? Most players don't have the great touch on shots around the basket that Clarke does either. Despite his lack of shooting 3s well he has been a very efficient scorer. I get that he doesn't have the bulk to push people around in the paint. However, he has been incredibly successful in the paint during his college career. Some people think the lack of bulk and reach will prevent him from being a player in the NBA. I go far more off being a player than the lack of size measurables. Since you have him being the second best reasonable pick for the Wolves you must agree with me on a lot of this or you would be among those who disagree with me.

I think his defense is valuable and you hope his roller transfers, but his rolling isn't guaranteed. I think his perimeter switching will transfer for sure. Compared to the other prospects in that range I value that more than the offense they provide.

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

So are you expecting Clarke to become a huge bust? I thought you just said he was your second favorite wolves option and considering Doumbouya is probably gone you have him as your #1 Wolves option. You are confusing me.

I don't expect it, but there is a chance his rolling doesn't transfer to the same ability in the NBA.

[Klomp]

and does anyone here argue that Towns should be taking 2 pointers away from the rim outside of bail out shots?

You just said you don't want someone taking the ball away from Towns in the post. So unless he gets less than 3 feet from the rim (layups, dunks) on 100% of his post-ups, I guess he's taking either a lot of bail-out shots or he's hurting the offense by taking bad shots.

But hey, if that's what you want over someone who's 50% inside the arc at his worst....

Um wuttt?

He took 85.6% of his shots from beyond 3 or within 10 ft of the rim. So what point are you even attempting to make here.

I'm making a comparison.

You think the '52% on 2-point jumpers' stat isn't very good. I'm trying to you that it's actually a better percentage than Towns has put up over his career.

[KGdaBom]

Yep. Shooting from 3 does pull a defender further away from the basket if the defense is guarding you and that has certain beneficial aspects to the offense as a whole. On the other hand do you realize that most players don't make 52.8% on 15 footers? Most players don't have the great touch on shots around the basket that Clarke does either. Despite his lack of shooting 3s well he has been a very efficient scorer. I get that he doesn't have the bulk to push people around in the paint. However, he has been incredibly successful in the paint during his college career. Some people think the lack of bulk and reach will prevent him from being a player in the NBA. I go far more off being a player than the lack of size measurables. Since you have him being the second best reasonable pick for the Wolves you must agree with me on a lot of this or you would be among those who disagree with me.

I think his defense is valuable and you hope his roller transfers, but his rolling isn't guaranteed. I think his perimeter switching will transfer for sure. Compared to the other prospects in that range I value that more than the offense they provide.

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

So are you expecting Clarke to become a huge bust? I thought you just said he was your second favorite wolves option and considering Doumbouya is probably gone you have him as your #1 Wolves option. You are confusing me.

I don't expect it, but there is a chance his rolling doesn't transfer to the same ability in the NBA.

Every player moving from college to the pros is going to have to deal with the same increase in difficulty be it Clarke/Little etc.. etc.. etc..

[Mattya]

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

I did watch a lot of better 3pt shooters than Draymond who would have been hurted the warriors a lot more.

Like? Are you comparing him to Ilyasova or some extreme example that isn't on Draymond's talent level, because right now we are comparing similar level prospects in the NBA draft. Not arguing extremes just to fit our points of view.

[Mattya]

You just said you don't want someone taking the ball away from Towns in the post. So unless he gets less than 3 feet from the rim (layups, dunks) on 100% of his post-ups, I guess he's taking either a lot of bail-out shots or he's hurting the offense by taking bad shots.

But hey, if that's what you want over someone who's 50% inside the arc at his worst....

Um wuttt?

He took 85.6% of his shots from beyond 3 or within 10 ft of the rim. So what point are you even attempting to make here.

I'm making a comparison.

You think the '52% on 2-point jumpers' stat isn't very good. I'm trying to you that it's actually a better percentage than Towns has put up over his career.

1. Over his career in the NBA.

2. But is there a specific positive you are trying to point out?

[KGdaBom]

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

I did watch a lot of better 3pt shooters than Draymond who would have been hurted the warriors a lot more.

Dray has always been left wide open on his threes due to Ds having to focus on other players. IIRC he has shot them just well enough so the D at least pays a price for leaving him wide open. Clarke is not Dray. Dray is bigger and a better passer. Clarke is FAR more athletic and a terror on the fast break and a better shot blocker. Dray has been considered a top 20 player in the NBA by many. If Clarke can come near his level that would be awesome.

[KGdaBom]

I think we are making some progress now, but still too much arguing over trivial stuff. I know I've made some progress. Hopefully we can all play nice now.

[KGdaBom]

Yep. Shooting from 3 does pull a defender further away from the basket if the defense is guarding you and that has certain beneficial aspects to the offense as a whole. On the other hand do you realize that most players don't make 52.8% on 15 footers? Most players don't have the great touch on shots around the basket that Clarke does either. Despite his lack of shooting 3s well he has been a very efficient scorer. I get that he doesn't have the bulk to push people around in the paint. However, he has been incredibly successful in the paint during his college career. Some people think the lack of bulk and reach will prevent him from being a player in the NBA. I go far more off being a player than the lack of size measurables. Since you have him being the second best reasonable pick for the Wolves you must agree with me on a lot of this or you would be among those who disagree with me.

I think his defense is valuable and you hope his roller transfers, but his rolling isn't guaranteed. I think his perimeter switching will transfer for sure. Compared to the other prospects in that range I value that more than the offense they provide.

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

So are you expecting Clarke to become a huge bust? I thought you just said he was your second favorite wolves option and considering Doumbouya is probably gone you have him as your #1 Wolves option. You are confusing me.

I don't expect it, but there is a chance his rolling doesn't transfer to the same ability in the NBA.

Do you go far enough back to remember Cedric Ceballos? The Lakers never ran a play for him and he averaged over 20 points a game for over 3 years. He came into the league and barely even attempted a 3 for his first 4 years. Than out of nowhere he's shooting them and made almost 40%. That was a one year anomaly. He dropped to under 30% again after that. I think Clarke is very similar offensively. Defensively he's much better.

[Mattya]

Yep. Shooting from 3 does pull a defender further away from the basket if the defense is guarding you and that has certain beneficial aspects to the offense as a whole. On the other hand do you realize that most players don't make 52.8% on 15 footers? Most players don't have the great touch on shots around the basket that Clarke does either. Despite his lack of shooting 3s well he has been a very efficient scorer. I get that he doesn't have the bulk to push people around in the paint. However, he has been incredibly successful in the paint during his college career. Some people think the lack of bulk and reach will prevent him from being a player in the NBA. I go far more off being a player than the lack of size measurables. Since you have him being the second best reasonable pick for the Wolves you must agree with me on a lot of this or you would be among those who disagree with me.

I think his defense is valuable and you hope his roller transfers, but his rolling isn't guaranteed. I think his perimeter switching will transfer for sure. Compared to the other prospects in that range I value that more than the offense they provide.

So are you expecting Clarke to become a huge bust? I thought you just said he was your second favorite wolves option and considering Doumbouya is probably gone you have him as your #1 Wolves option. You are confusing me.

I don't expect it, but there is a chance his rolling doesn't transfer to the same ability in the NBA.

Do you go far enough back to remember Cedric Ceballos? The Lakers never ran a play for him and he averaged over 20 points a game for over 3 years. He came into the league and barely even attempted a 3 for his first 4 years. Than out of nowhere he's shooting them and made almost 40%. That was a one year anomaly. He dropped to under 30% again after that. I think Clarke is very similar offensively. Defensively he's much better.

I never said it was impossible for Clarke to improve, but to use the outliers of shooting improvement can be misleading. There has been far more players who couldn't become good shooters than there are players that did improve.

[KGdaBom]

I think his defense is valuable and you hope his roller transfers, but his rolling isn't guaranteed. I think his perimeter switching will transfer for sure. Compared to the other prospects in that range I value that more than the offense they provide.



I don't expect it, but there is a chance his rolling doesn't transfer to the same ability in the NBA.

Do you go far enough back to remember Cedric Ceballos? The Lakers never ran a play for him and he averaged over 20 points a game for over 3 years. He came into the league and barely even attempted a 3 for his first 4 years. Than out of nowhere he's shooting them and made almost 40%. That was a one year anomaly. He dropped to under 30% again after that. I think Clarke is very similar offensively. Defensively he's much better.

I never said it was impossible for Clarke to improve, but to use the outliers of shooting improvement can be misleading. There has been far more players who couldn't become good shooters than there are players that did improve.

I wasn't using Ceballos for an improving his 3 point shooting. He had a great year than totally regressed. I was using Ceballos more for a very similar player who scored a lot. I just really enjoyed watching Ceballos play.

[MN7725]

Did we watch the NBA finals and see how Draymond Green was guarded and how that hurt the Warriors offense?

Now what happens when a guy who was a roller and lob catcher in college on offense, now goes to the next level and is roughly the same size as Jimmy Butler. If his rolling doesn't transfer he becomes a huge bust.

Wolves likely won't have the type of guards/wings next few years to make a "roller" be effective regardless

Would DJ/Capela do well with Wig/Teague/Covington/Okogie/Tyus?

Doubtful

Wolves guards/wings lack the off-the-dribble shooting or finishing to pressure opposing D