Shooting Guards
Small Forwards
Power Forwards
All of the stats I either found or calculated from hoop-math.com, basketball-reference.com, and tothemean.com. Points, assists, offensive rebounds, defensive rebounds, steals and blocks are all per40. As a new thing, I've included BPM and RAPM in addition to ORtg/DRtg/Net.
Vitals
Fernando, Holman, Kabengele and Reid are all on the smaller end, plausibly PF-sized, but none of them are too small. Gafford and Holman have the shortest wingspans, but neither of them are actually lacking in length. Tacko Fall is a freak, but Moses Brown is huge too. The only guys with 'questions' are Claxton for having a skinny build and Happ, who’s measurements I can’t find and suspect that they aren't impressive.
Kabengele is old for a sophomore, Happ and Fall are just old period. Hayes is extremely young, Claxton is young for a sophomore, Holman is really young for a senior.
Offense
Kabengele and Gafford are the only high volume scorers, except Kabengele didn't actually play heavy minutes because that's what FSU does, so really just Gafford. Happ was a volume scorer as well, but his efficiency was poor this season. Bolden hardly scored, but that's no surprise given his teammates.
Hayes' net ORtg defies reason. Bolden looking very good too for a guy who did very little. Seems as though there is a lot of value in a guy who stays out of the way and dunks the ball when it comes to him, as opposed to trying to do too much. Speaking of trying to do too much, Naz Reid is at the very bottom here despite being a guy who's whole appeal is his offensive skills.
Penetration
%FGA at the rim neatly divides these guys into 3 groups based on what they do: Finisher, Post-up scorers, and Shooters. The Finishers are Fall, Brown, Bolden and Hayes, who basically just get to the basket and dunk the ball. Hayes is the odd-ball of the group as the skinny one who didn't rebound. The Post-up Guys are Gafford, Happ and Fernando. They have skills as post-up scorers but not much range. Fernando is the exception due to his best-in-class FT%. He's tried a handful of 3s as it isn't part of his game yet, but he shows clear potential to learn how to shoot. Finally, the Shooters are Claxton, Holman, Kabengele and Reid. They all like to shoot jump shots, and not just 3s. Kabengele is the only guy of this group who doesn't try to create much for himself or others.
Hayes turned out the be the best finisher, but he also had nearly all of his makes assisted. The rest of these guys scored on offensive rebounds at least. Gafford deserves credit for finishing so well given that did a lot of scoring by himself from the post. It’s very hard to finish better than the 7'7" guy. Reid, Kabengele and Happ were the 3 worst finishers. Brown did poorly for a guy his size but no big deal.
The guys who finished poorly typically created most of their own looks. That's the case with Happ in particular, but also Ried and Kabengele. Claxton and Fernando deserve credit for finishing pretty well given that the created most of their own shots here.
Claxton did unusually well drawing fouls. Fall just gets intentionally fouled a ton since he can't hit his free throws. Happ on the other hand, is skilled enough to avoid contact, which he was clearly trying to do since he can't hit his free throws either.
Shooting
Holman and Kabengele are both sure shooters from 3. Holman is genuinely very good from 3, he's even hit a step-back IIRC. Reid and Claxton have put up 3s but haven't hit many of them yet. Claxton is more of a question since he hasn't been good from the line either. Fernando is the best FT shooter and could potentially add the 3 to his game, but hasn't taken many yet. Bolden is the next best FT shooter who hasn't really tried to shoot 3s yet, so maybe down the line he might add that to his game but don't expect it.
Happ, Fall and Brown cannot shoot FTs, at all. But since DJ and Andre Drummond both figured it out, there's still hope for these guys to become okay after spending an offseason on it. Gafford is a bit poor from the line but not horrific, just have to stay above 50%. Hayes only started playing late but is already a competent free throw shooter so good for him.
Passing
Ethan Happ's big appeal is that he's essentially been Wisconsin's point guard, and that's what the numbers here show. His A/TO would be low for a true PG, but everything else is right there. Dude is an elite passer for the position. Fernando is underrated as a passer and the second best in this class. Claxton and Holman are capable passers, but not spectacular. The rest of these guys are essentially non-passers. Gafford's lack of development as a passer in his second season was disappointing, given that it was the obvious thing for him to work on. Fall, Hayes and Brown we expected to be really bad passers, given the lack of experience/skills overall, but Kabengele is a surprise. Fall really struggles with turnovers.
Defense
Steal rates aren't too important for a center, but they're always good to have. Happ and Holman deliver, while Fall gets basically none - he's too tall to reach down and grab the ball from all of the normal-sized guys. You do want to see blocks, and naturally Fall is in front, though not by as much as you might expect. Good on Hayes for coming in second despite his lack of experience. The shorter guys are naturally getting fewer blocks, but Happ and Reid have concerningly low block rates. Both lack explosiveness, but Reid is clearly just bad on defense. he doesn't even rebound, while Happ had the second highest DRB per40. Fernando also dominated the glass, and this despite sharing the floor with another center at Maryland. Hayes' biggest hole is his poor rebounding, which he struggles with at both ends. Bolden clearly lost out on boards to his 5-star teammates just like he lost shots to them. Holman is just lazy.
Overall
We can see that each impact stat overall favors different guys. Fernando is very good across all 3. Fall, Gafford, Hayes, and Kabengele did well or okay in every stat. Hayes in particular has a crazy-high Net rating. Bolden and Holman did fine in Net and BPM but had low RAPM. Reid and Brown are bad across all 3. Claxton and Happ are the two major points of disagreement. Claxton has the best RAPM, a solid Net but a poor BPM. Happ in contrast has the best BPM, an okay RAPM and poor Net.
Overall Evaluations
The Finishers
Jaxson Hayes
He's a super raw athlete, but the effort was good, he can already hit his free throws, and he produced on both ends. He really struggles to rebound the ball though, and some of that appears to be some missing instinct, and not just that he needs to add muscle. I think that explains why his defensive impact numbers aren't really good, in addition to the fact that he's clearly learning a lot of new stuff. He showed improvement through the year, which is encouraging. But don't expect him to expand his role much in the NBA beyond what he's doing now.
Marques Bolden
On offense, his role was to stay out of the way of the star trio and get putbacks, and nothing else, which he did well. On defense, he's fairly mobile and a capable shot-blocker, which helped Duke play a 'switch-everything' defense instead of trying to teach all of the freshmen an actual scheme. He did fine at both of these things but wasn't amazing.
Moses Brown
He's huge but has little skill or feel for the game, and his numbers are mostly awful. You can tell yourself that UCLA being a disaster is the reason why, but I suspect that he's just a big body and that's it. He looked soft and his FT% is horrific.
Tacko Fall
I know that he's this big meme due to his outlier size, but he really doesn't do much beyond stand around the basket being super tall, and he just isn't mobile enough to play in the modern NBA. That FT shooting is hideous, also.
Post-Up Guys
Ethan Happ
I know he's old, he has the same huge holes he had as a freshman, and that his stats regressed as a senior, but I still really like him. Sure, he's basically Ben Simmons without the athleticism, but that still a really interesting guy! He doesn't just post-up but he can handle the ball. He isn't explosive vertically but he's more mobile laterally than you realize and he's clearly very intelligent. His passing is great and he's a crafty scorer. And though it is late, guys have figured out how to hit free throws after shooting as badly as Happ has. The way he's produced every year at a high major is special. Someone should take a chance on him.
Daniel Gafford
Unexciting competency on both ends of the court. He's a great finisher and capable post-up guy on one end, and a solid rebounder/shot-blocker on the other. The lack of improvement from last year is disappointing, and his FT shooting is a bit concerning, but he's still about as safe a prospect as there is.
Bruno Fernando
He's quite similar to Gafford, except fixing all of the flaws I mentioned for Gafford. Fernando improved while Gafford did not, Fernando is a good passer while Gafford is not, and Fernando is the best FT shooter in this class while Gafford struggles at the line. Fernando is also an elite rebounder. I get the concerns with him not being super-mobile laterally, but he's not exactly slow. And he does have sneaky upside as a shooter. I think he's even more of a sure bet to contribute than Gafford is, and I even prefer him to Claxton – he has better potential as a shooter and is clearly a better passer IMO, in addition to being stronger and a bit more explosive.
Shooters
Nick Claxton
He's got the full array of skills on offense, at least in flashes. The scoring efficiency is bad, but that's because for a purported jump shooter, his 3P% and FT% are very bad. I genuinely don’t expect him to shoot well in the NBA, as he’s just been poor at it for two seasons. His passing was good for a big man, but not genuinely impressive yet. He was pretty capable on defense; those impact numbers love him. It’s mostly because he’s a very mobile guy who you can switch onto perimeter players, but he’s skinny and can get beat up down low. You can see room for him to bust, but given his young age for a sophomore, and all of the tantalizing glimpses he's shown on offense, he has fantastic upside.
Mfiondu Kabengele
As a big athlete who can blocks shots and hit 3s, he's easy to fall in love with. However, he didn't play starter minutes, and his defensive impact numbers are poor across the board - it could easily be that he's a guy with poor instincts/feel just taking advantage of his limited minutes to hunt for blocks. The total lack of passing is another concern in the same direction, along with the relatively poor finishing. He can certainly shoot 3s and has size, but there is some bust potential.
Aric Holman
His issue is very straightforward: He doesn't try on defense. It's really, noticeably bad there and has gotten him benched as a senior. If he starts trying on defense in the NBA, then you've got a steal. He's a proven, knock-down shooter from deep. Elite even, especially at his size. But he isn't merely a spot-up shooter. He can pick and pop or roll, and can pass fairly well when he gets the ball as the roll guy. He could theoretically be a really useful player on both ends, but it all comes back to if he's going to try on defense.
Naz Reid
You can see that there's some skills on offense, but they didn't really get good results yet. His efficiency was poor, he didn't shoot that well from distance, and his passing number stunk. You can give him a bit of a pass though since he's a freshman. However, his defense was terrible. He didn't show good mobility or instincts, he wasn't explosive and failed to blocks many shots at all. Even if he had shown great instincts and focus, he'd still be athletically limited, and nothing about his offense is a sure thing. He very likely will not work out in the NBA.
