Official Trade Thread -- Part XXXVII

[payitforward]

Thing is - just because we don't know how to measure it - it doesn't follow that we should ignore it, right? I think everyone else appreciates/understands that.

I agree 100%. It's common sense -- did I ever say it wasn't worth investigating?

Plus, as I wrote a moment ago, I don't think it would be complicated to measure it. That is... it would be complicated for you or me to measure it, but not for someone who is an experienced user of statistical software like SAS.

Seriously? That issue has been brought up a million times with you for a reason. You completely ignore it - time after time.

I "ignore it?" Maybe I've ignored it when it was brought up with no idea of how to quantify it. Just as some rhetorical claim.

That doesn't mean I thought, or think now, that it's not worth investigating -- if I said that somewhere, then I was certainly wrong. But I'm pretty sure I never have said that.

How to integrate it into a measure of a player is still an open question. But if a player actually has the effect of making others better, then there's no way that can be irrelevant.

nate just posted something from an exchange some time ago -- nate can you link to that set of posts. I'd like to know how I responded to the chart you posted.

[payitforward]

I would probably do Beal for Ingram/Ball/2019 1st/Future 1st at this point. Other than the Clippers, there's no other team with a war chest as expansive as New Orleans.

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Also that's interesting. Ersan will make $7 million next season. Wizards have an $8.6 million TPE. His salary is guaranteed June 22 so they could get Milwaukee's 30th pick and cut him two days later. Bucks have no second round picks in the near future.

Ersan is guaranteed for the coming season. That cut deadline is for next year: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/milwaukee-bucks-team-salary/

[Rafael122]

I would probably do Beal for Ingram/Ball/2019 1st/Future 1st at this point. Other than the Clippers, there's no other team with a war chest as expansive as New Orleans.

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Also that's interesting. Ersan will make $7 million next season. Wizards have an $8.6 million TPE. His salary is guaranteed June 22 so they could get Milwaukee's 30th pick and cut him two days later. Bucks have no second round picks in the near future.

Ersan is guaranteed for the coming season. That cut deadline is for next year: http://www.basketballinsiders.com/milwaukee-bucks-team-salary/

Drat! He's still a serviceable player though....

[nate33]

I would probably do Beal for Ingram/Ball/2019 1st/Future 1st at this point. Other than the Clippers, there's no other team with a war chest as expansive as New Orleans.

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Also that's interesting. Ersan will make $7 million next season. Wizards have an $8.6 million TPE. His salary is guaranteed June 22 so they could get Milwaukee's 30th pick and cut him two days later. Bucks have no second round picks in the near future.

Very interesting indeed.

To clarify, Ersan is on the books for $7M in the 2019-20 season no matter what. It's the 2020-21 season that isn't guaranteed. As long as he is cut by June 23, 2020, that 2020-21 contract year gets wiped from the books. Effectively, he is an expiring contract with a team option for 2020-21.

This certainly presents an outstanding opportunity to buy a pick. Assuming Bryant and Sato cost a combined $15M to resign, the payroll is about $110M for Wall, Beal, Mahinmi, Howard, Sato, Bryant, #9, Brown, McRae and Phillips. That's 10 players. Take on Ilyasova and Milwaukee's #30 pick and that's 12 players for $118M. That leaves $14M in luxtax room. Maybe that's enough for Parker, maybe not (or maybe we have no desire to keep Parker). And maybe Ted is willing to pay the luxtax since he is saving so much money with Wall's insurance.

One part I don't really get is the mechanism for Milwaukee to trade their pick. As I understand it, they owe their 2020 pick to Phoenix (top 7 protected, unprotected in 2021). They therefore can't trade the 2019 pick on draft day. I suppose they could make the pick on our behalf and then trade the player to us using one of our other trade exceptions after draft day.

It definitely seems like good value to acquire a competent PF/C veteran for just $7M and also get a draft pick in the process.

[nate33]

nate just posted something from an exchange some time ago -- nate can you link to that set of posts. I'd like to know how I responded to the chart you posted.

Here is my original post.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1423165&start=820#p69987464

[nate33]

I'm not sure how relevant it is to anything we're discussing now -- since I wouldn't dream of maintaining that "guys like Jeremy Lamb and Andre Roberson" are better than Beal, as someone suggested.

Name 14 shooting guards better than Beal.

Sure, easy. If what you mean is guys who are actually playing better than Beal -- where that means putting up better overall numbers (IOW not just scoring). As opposed to guys to whose name the response is "oh no, not him. Everybody knows Bradley Beal is better than that guy."

Here are 14: Jimmy Butler, Danny Green, C.J. Miles, Iman Shumpert, Lou Williams, Andre Roberson, J.J. Redick, Avery Bradley, Dwyane Wade, DeMar Derozen, Marco Belinelli, Vince Carter, Stanley Johnson, & Kyle Korver.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1423165&sk=a&start=660#p50277535

Not only did you suggest Roberson. You also included Shumpert, a 40-year-old Vince Carter, and Stanley freaking Johnson. LOL.

[Ruzious]

Stanley Johnson? Oh my.

Anyway, Wiretap is reporting NO has an interest in Beal, so perhaps a lot of the assets they just got from LAL would be in play if the interest is serious. Intrusting.

[deneem4]

We should get that mil pick ersan and c wood

[payitforward]

nate just posted something from an exchange some time ago -- nate can you link to that set of posts. I'd like to know how I responded to the chart you posted.

Here is my original post.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1423165&start=820#p69987464

To which I responded:

Missed this. Glad to see it now.

At first I thought the dotted lines were in order of the last 4 years w/ last year at the right -- got that idea from Curry's best being his most recent. Then I realized that it couldn't be -- it would mean that everyone listed had gotten better year by year! Naw....

In Brad's case, you are right to ask what seasons the numbers refer to. Suppose they don't match to the levels of his own play? That would make questionable your claim that it supports the idea that Beal has been better than Otto.

Moreover, the positive impact of a player on this list is with respect to another player or players -- the ones on the court when he's not. So if one of those players has a particularly negative impact on other players' shooting (e.g. if he himself is a terrible shooter & gets little defensive attention -- allowing more attention to others on the court), that will make the impact of that first player look greater than it may actually be.

This is why effects of interaction are so squirrelly & difficult to assess.

Moreover, even if we should take Beal's place on this into account when we ask who's better between him & Porter, it's hard to know how much weight to give it. As well, perhaps some of this in Beal's case can be said to come from his playmaking ability. But, in that case, at least some of this effect will already be registered in his assists -- i.e. it's already in the numbers we'd look at to compare the players.

In short... interesting! But I don't think it's adequate reason to "consider Beal better than Porter." At the same time though... it is definitely a good thing!

The questions I raise are the ones to raise: they ask "how does one assess this?" But, they don't "ignore" it, Ruz. & they don't suggest that it should be ignored, i.e. deny that it's meaningful.

(Note that the question of "who's better" between Beal & Porter was, for me, a question about who had the better seasons in 2016-17 & 2017-18. Not a "metaphysical" question about some essential substance with the name "goodness" & who has a bigger quantity of it. I don't think about basketball - or anything much - in that way.)

But, rather than get into a joust about this, let me just affirm what you said, Ruz: this is interesting & deserves investigation. If we don't altogether know how to assess it, then we should be motivated to look deeper into it -- & certainly not to deny it. If I have seemed to ignore the issue, then I have been wrong to do so.

Good enough mea culpa? Hope so -- peace!

[payitforward]

We should get that mil pick ersan and c wood

Wood's not with Milwaukee any more, deneem. He's with the Pels.

[deneem4]

We should get that mil pick ersan and c wood

Wood's not with Milwaukee any more, deneem. He's with the Pels.

ESPN gotta update the trade machine

[nate33]

Chris Paul wants out of Houston:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-rumors-chris-paul-wants-051908163.html

John Wall straight up for Chris Paul works. I don't particularly want Paul's attitude on this roster, but it shaves the final $46M season off of Wall's contract. Also, Chris Paul, for all his faults, is certainly a more effective player than John Wall in a boot.

Houston reloads. They get much younger, keeping their window of opportunity open for much longer. We can even make the trade at the Trade Deadline so Paul can help Houston stay in playoff contention before trading him just when Wall is ready to come back.

[payitforward]

I'm not sure how relevant it is to anything we're discussing now -- since I wouldn't dream of maintaining that "guys like Jeremy Lamb and Andre Roberson" are better than Beal, as someone suggested.

Name 14 shooting guards better than Beal.

Sure, easy. If what you mean is guys who are actually playing better than Beal -- where that means putting up better overall numbers (IOW not just scoring). As opposed to guys to whose name the response is "oh no, not him. Everybody knows Bradley Beal is better than that guy."

Here are 14: Jimmy Butler, Danny Green, C.J. Miles, Iman Shumpert, Lou Williams, Andre Roberson, J.J. Redick, Avery Bradley, Dwyane Wade, DeMar Derozen, Marco Belinelli, Vince Carter, Stanley Johnson, & Kyle Korver.

viewtopic.php?f=35&t=1423165&sk=a&start=660#p50277535

Not only did you suggest Roberson. You also included Shumpert, a 40-year-old Vince Carter, and Stanley freaking Johnson. LOL.

nate... that was about a dozen games into the 2016-17 season! & note that I reframed your question as "playing better than Beal" i.e. right then. Brad was coming off a terrible season; he was looking like a guy who would be injured repeatedly, he hadn't had even one good season to that point, & there were plenty of people here who were calling him a bust -- with me, btw, pointing out out young he still was -- only 22.

He went on to have a decisively different kind of year in 2016-17 & by way of that season completely change the way he would be regarded.

As to my list, hey, Vince Carter had just turned 39 -- not 40 -- & had a really good year (played more & better than Brad had played the previous year, for example).

Stanley Johnson, otoh, what an incredible bust! Wasn't he taken #9 in 2015, btw? 21 picks before Kevon Looney -- who at 6'9" & 210 lbs was way too small to play Center in the NBA. (Actually Johnson went #8)

But, lets ignore all that, & let me say that I was altogether wrong, & it's not the only time I've been wrong either! Brad is a better player than every one on that list.

(Except, that is, for the ones who were better than him at the time -- then not now. Say... maybe 9 of the 14...? By now, otoh, it's down to Jimmy Butler as the only player on the list better than Brad -- & Jimmy's almost 30; it would be easy to imagine Brad passing him one day soon.)

[payitforward]

Chris Paul wants out of Houston:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-rumors-chris-paul-wants-051908163.html

John Wall straight up for Chris Paul works. I don't particularly want Paul's attitude on this roster, but it shaves the final $46M season off of Wall's contract. Also, Chris Paul, for all his faults, is certainly a more effective player than John Wall in a boot.

Houston reloads. They get much younger, keeping their window of opportunity open for much longer. We can even make the trade at the Trade Deadline so Paul can help Houston stay in playoff contention before trading him just when Wall is ready to come back.

Chris Paul might be more effective than John Wall even if he were the one wearing the boot! But I can't see Darryl Morey making that trade & taking on that extra year, can you?

(...just being provocative, b/c today seems to be the day when I get a hard time from you & Ruz. All in fun. Chris Paul is only more effective if both guys are wearing the boot! Or neither guy, of course.)

[pcbothwel]

Chris Paul wants out of Houston:

https://sports.yahoo.com/nba-rumors-chris-paul-wants-051908163.html

John Wall straight up for Chris Paul works. I don't particularly want Paul's attitude on this roster, but it shaves the final $46M season off of Wall's contract. Also, Chris Paul, for all his faults, is certainly a more effective player than John Wall in a boot.

Houston reloads. They get much younger, keeping their window of opportunity open for much longer. We can even make the trade at the Trade Deadline so Paul can help Houston stay in playoff contention before trading him just when Wall is ready to come back.

Doesnt make sense. This hurts Houston in the short term and us long term (I think Wall in 20/21 & especially 21/22 will be better than CP3).
Thats the opposite of what Houston should do.
They should run it back with harden and Paul, trade Capela or Gordon for another player, use MLE to backfill.
What about a Capela & Gordon for Adams & Roberson & pick swap.

Houston gets really good compliments to Paul and Harden while getting a pick.
OKC saves 5M + Lux tax hit while getting shooting from the guard spot. They also save about 10M next year too.

[Shoe]

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This guy only has 24k followers but his pinned tweet

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News of Harper signing with philly broke Feb. 28

[Dark Faze]

i'd want basically every pick asset that they acquired from LA and maybe next years Pels first as well, + filler

no real interest in Ball or Ingram--will even take on Solomon Hill contract for more picks.

But a loadddd of picks is all i'm really interested in atm. Not thrilled about Ingram facing a contract extension.

[Dark Faze]

...the idea that #4 would be the centerpiece of the deal is crazy to me...

[Illmatic12]

I would tell the Pels it needs to be a three team trade or no deal. Go get us Myles Turner from Indiana and package him with some of the Lakers unprotected picks , then we can talk

[prime1time]

I don't think any deal is incoming, unless the Pels are going to give us basically what they got for AD. More so, why the rush? Beal is a super valuable commodity. Every team that has one star is going to try to get him. I think we need to let the market develop naturally. If we get to the point that we want to trade Beal, create a bidding war. New Orleans and there assets aren't going anywhere. Let's take a step back and see what we have.

Also, the notion that Beal would be traded without a permanent GM is crazy. This isn't about getting a lot back for Beal. It's about having a plan and a vision going forward.