2018-19 Player of the Year Discussion Thread

[Sakay]

I weigh playoffs heavier than the regular season, probably 60-40. So my list goes:

1a. Kawhi
1b. Giannis
2. Curry
3. Harden
4. Jokic
5. Durant
6. Embiid
7. George
8. Davis
9. Lillard

[Colbinii]

I weigh playoffs heavier than the regular season, probably 60-40. So my list goes:

1a. Kawhi
1b. Giannis
2. Curry
3. Harden
4. Jokic
5. Durant
6. Embiid
7. George
8. Davis
9. Lillard

Your numbers are wrong.

[Outside]

So, I'm inclined to agree with ElGee's assessment of Curry as the best in the game right now, and yet it also feels weird to think of him as my POY this year. Giannis feels more like he earned it for the season. Interested in others takes on this.

Also definitely interested on thoughts relating to Kawhi. How do you see his impact on defense now?

I'm in the same place -- Curry may be the most impactful player, but I have Giannis as my POY. Here's my POY top five:

1. Giannis
2. Kawhi
3. Curry
4. Harden
5. Jokic

As for Kawhi's defense, it's obvious if you actually watch his play on that end that he's nowhere near what he was as DPOY. For too many people, he is coasting on his DPOY reputation and the Milwaukee series, where he guarded Giannis.

He of course deserves credit for helping turn the Milwaukee series with his defense on Giannis, but there are mitigating factors:

-- Kawhi had lots of help. He took on the role as primary defender, but it certainly wasn't him by himself. Toronto's entire defense collapsed on Giannis to wall him off from the basket. The one play where Kawhi put his huge hand on the ball as Giannis drove, resulting in a jump ball, was a great play, but it was one play and not representative of what Toronto did to defend Giannis, which was wall off the basket with multiple players. That strategy forced Giannis to make a short mid-range shot (which he didn't do well) or pass to a teammate (his playmaking skills have improved, but they were exposed as limited against Toronto), and when he did get it to a teammate on the perimeter, those guys didn't make shots at a high enough rate.

-- Giannis is not an outside threat or even a significant mid-range threat, which simplifies Kawhi's defensive task enormously. All Kawhi had to do is stay in front of Giannis while retreating toward the help waiting at the basket. No worries about Giannis shooting anywhere else; in fact, please Giannis, please shoot from the outside. Compare that assignment to him guarding Durant, another long player but one who is a deadly shooter from the perimeter and particularly the mid-range. Playing the same level of defense on Durant that he did on Giannis would've resulted in Durant feasting. We just didn't get to see that matchup. For the few minutes Durant played, from what I've seen in videos, he was mainly guarded by Danny Green or Siakam.

Kawhi is of course still a solid defender, but he wasn't given the assignment of guarding Curry or Thompson until game 6, when he started on Thompson. But Klay was great (it didn't matter who Toronto put on him, he scored 26.0 pts on 70.6 TS% for the series, which is insane for a guy who had only 2.5 FTA per game), and by the second half, Kawhi wasn't Klay's primary defender anymore.

Toronto mainly put Kawhi on a non-shooter so that he could roam and be a help defender, but he actually doesn't excel in that role. He did lead the finals in steals with 12, but throughout the series, he made regular mistakes in positioning.

But Kawhi is also dealing with a mystery leg injury (injuries?). Add to that, he's their primary scorer, and of course Toronto is going to put Kawhi in position to conserve energy on the defensive end.

The problem is when people give Kawhi credit for being a superb scorer in the PS and still give him full credit for being the lockdown defender that he was as DPOY when he clearly isn't. I've even heard former NBA players, who should know better, saying this. He is miles less impactful defensively than he was against LeBron in the 2014 finals and through his DPOY years.

He's a great player, second on my POY ballot, but people need to look at what he's actually doing on defense, not just give him lifetime credit based on reputation.

Overall, I'd say multiple Toronto players were more impactful defensively than Kawhi in the finals. VanVleet, Lowry, and Green did the main work of guarding and doubling Curry. Gasol's defensive BBIQ was huge; going into the series, it was a question whether he was playable, but because Golden State couldn't turn him into a defensive liability by going small, Gasol stayed on the court and became a key part of their victory. Siakam put in excellent work guarding on the perimeter and in transition, which was a significantly more difficult task than Kawhi floating off of Green, Iguodala, or McKinnie.

I didn't watch Toronto in the Orlando and Philly series as closely, so others can comment on those better than I can.

[Doctor MJ]

More thoughts on things:

- I was starting to lean toward Joel Embiid in my 5 spot (after fighting against it in previous discussion), but I realized that it didn't really make sense to me to drop Durant below Embiid based on injury when Durant played so much more, and even played more in the playoffs. This is starting to make my POY ballot look like:

1. Giannis
2. Steph
3. Kawhi
4. Harden
5. Durant
HM: Embiid, Jokic, Lillard, George, Green

- Curry & Harden are my OPOY top two. Considering Durant, Jokic & Lillard for the 3rd spot.

- DPOY I'd stick with Giannis & Gobert as my top 2. George, Embiid & Green all merit discussion. I'm not inclined at the moment to signal out a particular Raptor, but that was was an incredible team effort.

- I find myself siding with Toronto for both COY & EOY. Noteworthy because I've long been someone who knocked the choice of Ujiri back when he won it on Denver, but his moves involving Kawhi/DeRozan, Nurse/Casey, and Gasol this past year where perfectly pitched, and certainly aided by other choices he's made paying off.

[Colbinii]

When will the voting thread be created? Or will we be voting in here?

Anyways...

1. James Harden
2. Kawhi Leonard
3. Giannis Antetokounmpo
4. Steph Curry
5. Nikola Jokic

1. James Harden had a historic Regular Season. Out of all the regular season "Carry Jobs", Offensively it was the best ever [2017 Westbrook, 1987 Jordan, 2003 McGrady, 2006 Bryant, 2009 Wade]. The fact that he could walk down the court every time and shoot a 3 and produce 110 Ortg [105 in Post-season] 13 times per game [12.5 in post-season] is absolutely incredible. In the post-season he shot 68% at the rim and over 50% from mid-range. Most importantly his offense didn't regress considering the level of competition he faced [Utah Rd 1, GSW Rd 2].

During the Regular season I didn't have any separation between Giannis/Harden throughout the majority of the season. I ended up with Giannis being ever-so-slightly ahead of Harden but I feel like Harden was clearly better in the post-season to a degree larger than that of Giannis over Harden in the regular season.

2. Kawhi Leonard had a fantastic post-season. He played his role on his team marvelously and the seamless transition to this team in under 1 year is impressive. He had the perfect pieces around him to succeed: elite floor general, lengthy defenders, veterans who play both sides of the ball and possess high bbiq and floor spacing wings and guards to open up the floor.

After all the compliments and praise he has received I can't help but not give some of his other teammates more support than others around here. The team is one of the most balanced teams of all-time and have one of the best head coaches in the league.

Ultimately Kawhi Leonard had an all-time great season but not a GOAT-like season. 22 missed games in the regular season certainly dock him for me. I take into account his ability and production in the post-season was assisted by his resting regimen.

3. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the best team in the regular season to the most wins and an 8 SRS. He was the catalyst on both sides of the ball while being as versatile as they come defensively in the current NBA landscape. Offensively he is finding his true mold [not as a PG] but as a tremendous drive and kick player with a post-game built on strength akin to Shaq. Outside of LeBron he is the most physically dominant Basketball Player I have seen since Shaq and inside of the paint is likely more dominant than LeBron [scoring wise].

Similar to Kawhi he has a tremendous coach and a strong [albeit weaker than Kawhi's] team around him. His offensive game took a hit when playing against a truly elite, two-way team [Boston was not a two-way team this year] in Toronto. He had a major weakness against Toronto's defense which was exploited to a embarrassing degree [4 game sweep to end series]. Giannis has a glaring weakness in his game which Kawhi/Harden simply don't as neither of these players were exploited in the post-season.

4. Steph Curry, for the 5th straight season, continues to be one of the most difficult players to analyze. His impact is hard to pin point while the variance in his play game to game is worrisome for a player regarded in the GOAT tier of offensive superstars. Against two good to great defenses in Houston and Toronto he shot roughly 31% from 3 on 11 3PA/G, not a great look. On the other side of the equation his gravity off-ball is still in its own league.

Curry's ability to torch a depleted and exhausted Portland team [while impressive] showed just how great he can be. He had good game 6 to close out Houston and a couple of Finals games where he looked like he was clearly the best player in the NBA today. Unfortunately his inability to carry the scoring load consistently pulls him down for me [and clearly worse regular season than Harden/Giannis].

5. Joel Embiid, I mean Kevin Durant...wait Damian Lillard...alright Nikola Jokic won the die roll on this one [not really]. I'm as high as the come on Jokic's offensive ability. For as unique as Steph Curry is, Nikola Jokic could be the most unique player in NBA History. His vision is off the charts for any player, let alone a Center.

The Denver Nuggets finished with the 6th best Offensive Rating in the league, in large part because of the second ranked Offensive Rebound Percentage [Thanks to Jokic] and Low Turnover Percentage [Thanks to Jokic]. He led the league in half-court touches by an astonishing amount and provides everything you want from a center offensively.

Defensively he is extremely underrated. The Denver Nuggets ranked 10th in the league with some bad defenders playing big minutes [Jamal Murray, Will Barton, Malik Beasley and Hernangomez]. He is a tremendous rebounder and has a knack for finding the ball defensively.

[Doctor MJ]

When will the voting thread be created? Or will we be voting in here?

This is a good question. I didn't start the thread this year and haven't made a move to take control of voting.I'm willing to do so but I don't need to be the one who does it. I'd only ask that if someone else wants to take over, they try to do it right in terms of recording the votes/points etc.

[MyUniBroDavis]

Random thoughts because im probably not gonna vote

- harden obviously was incredible in the RS but i wouldnt call it the GOAT offensive carrying job. To say "he played with player x,x, and x who all had offensive impacts of ---" ignores that he spent the majority of his minutes with 4 shooters or 3 shooters + capela (who has among the highest roll gravities in the league according to bball index) and has developed an amazing chemistry with harden. Yeah, what he did was incredible but the rockets played the 5 out more than weve pretty much seen ever, and had the tools to do so including 2-3 players with limitless range badges. They also had players willing to do so and also able to put the ball on the floor. Help defense becomes way less effective against a 5 out for obvious reasons. Its not just that they run a 5 out but they run an absurdly strict one

- curry and giannis against the raptors was weird. With giannis it was more of his fault cuz ye showed he kinda sucks at kicking out against heavy pressure and length but at the same time budenholzer wasnt great at adjusting
With curry, ALOT of it was kerr just absolutely sucking lol. The finals was a pretty badly coached series on both sides tbh lol. I think Kerr constantly rekt at a box and freaking one probably took the cake though. They just didnt run actions that made the warriors succesful as much as they did pre-Kd coming, and you need that with curry. I do think that curry did dissapear at times and wasnt aggressive enough, particularly when his teammates were cold and his off ball mpvement wasnt opening them up as much. Itll be interesting to see him next year

Raptors defense in the playoff was obscenely good, and you could tell they kicked it up a notch. I dont think curry was horrible that series he did fine, just wasnt aggreessive enough despite the points. Kerr hasnt really shown hes amazing at making adjustments tbh, at least unconventional ones you dont see often which isnt suprising considering he lacks experience oht of the nba. Hes still great tho obv

I dont get why everyones knocking kawhi for his lackluster RS when he didnt have to try and said he wasnt gonna flip the switch. Its not about valuing one over the other or weighting but just looking at context. Why would he tire himself out in the RS coming off of an injury when he literally had no incentive to? He was hilariously good in the playoffs. I remember people were hyping up iguadolas defense on him but alot of that the warriors pretty much always having to help. Hes like kobe but you take out points in skill/footwork/passing and put it in 3 point shooting and max out strength. (I still think kobe is better). And then situationally he was clutch asf, and was integral in slowing down giannis.

This isnt a POY vote obviously but if we are saying who are the best players, lebron is literally the same as last year except his three got a bit worse, and he was slow after coming back from injury early for a bit. He was just put in a hilariously bad situation from a coaching and fit standpoint, because they assembled a roster in a way where decision making was emphasized and they proceeded to have a coaching staff and a playstyle that countered that and put players in positions they shouldnt be in.

Currys presence creates scoring options/actions that shouldnt be available because his gravity is hilariously dumb, but you need a coaching staff able to take advantage of that and generally scoring options that can benifit from it to maximize the effect. But we see him literally create roles for players to increase their impact (draymond in a vacuum is a really good playmaking 4 that is horrible at scoring. Hes crazy intelligent and does stuff off ball when hes being left alone which idk why no ine else does but hes not anywehre near as high impact offensively if curry isnt there. He makes great reads but curry creates the opportunity to make alot of these reads) one thing about curry that hurts him in the playoffs, aside from being too unselfish at times. Lets say in an offense part 1 is the action and part 2 is when it breaks down. Hes great, best in the league even at part 1, and not as dependent on coaching as most other than harden and "what weve seen" from lebron because its really obvious (with harden and what weve seen from lebron its basically just different reads out of the p and r slipping early when they show out to far to try to prevent the switch things like that). Isnt that great at part 2, and in the playoffs actions are read and studied and countered in more detail. Not to the point where part 1 is useless obviously, in fact we saw that alot of times to defend curry centric actions it comes down to a gamble. But if he doesent have time to get a screen or get a mismatch when the offense breaks down he struggles, although obviously being the goat shooter helps this (at least from what I saw)

With Anthony Davis - the pelicans were bottom tier in spacing last year (act think they might have been the bottom, below even the lakers)

Holiday is a good smart playmaker but isnt some passing savant i think. Davis being extremely versatile quick, athletic, having crazy hands, and being able to iso from the perimeter creates room for creativity in the offense and also makes actions better. Theres this idea that having an A+ in one skill and Bs or B+ in every other skill isnt as good as 2 A+ and 5 Ds

2 A+ creates specialized players who play very specific roles very well and are easy to see, while 1 A+ and miltiple Bs creates a multifaceted player than can not onlybplay multiple roles in an offense but can also take up multiple roles in an offensive action, creating possible new options out of certain actions etc etc. partially why I think Lebron is the GOAT offensive player from a talent perspective, outside of 3 point shooting, hes arguably a top 5 playmaker and scorer all time, is hyper intelligent off ball, can play as both a P and R ball handler and rollman both at extremely high levels, etc, and he can run the 5 out iso offense better than literally anyone in nba history. weve never seen a coach utilize it though. A big reason why playoff lebron is absurd is because playoffs are a tome of adjustments. But lebron, as someone whose only weakness is an above average 3 point shots, lebron can adjust to your adjustments because theres no real weakness to exploit

Sidenote on curry
- i think that he has the ability to do the things i said he struggles on and will show hat next year, but he isnt selfish/aggressive enough at times which most of the time is a good thing, but there are times when you should take that risk imo. Also idk why no one ever mentions his playmaking because hes an amazing playmaker and i feel that gets ignored, hes outstanding at playmkaing and making the right reads and passes its just that draymond is the primary playmaker because curry creates more opportunities for another playmaker through his offball movement. His finishing is weird though, i know its great but i feel he makes some obscenely hard ones, he makes alot of th actually, but misses alot of gimmes. Overall it evens out but just something ive noticed, its hard for me to explain. Hes supremely effecient esp because he can hit a certain kind of layup i call currylayups but he cant make layups when out of control i guess

Also seperating talent from impact/role/situation is ignored alot, and i feel weve seen how much role and situation can affect talent vs impact. (Off topic, bery curious with Davis and the lakers youth
Davis was in a good place scheme wise i would assume but god awful spacing, and the lakers youth are gonna be insane under gentry mark mah words imma speak it into existence)

Also, how do we seperate a teams playoff failures vs a players impact when a large part of it was a coaching failure? Esp for giannis when while it was because of a weakness he had, there were adjustments that could have been made but werent made

[E-Balla]

Also, how do we seperate a teams playoff failures vs a players impact when a large part of it was a coaching failure? Esp for giannis when while it was because of a weakness he had, there were adjustments that could have been made but werent made

Also not voting but I want to speak to this. Personally I think you shouldn't ignore it if a player has an exploited weakness that could easily be fixed with good coaching, so personally I think a player should take a hit for having great coaching and teammates if they cover for you often. I've said for years Curry benefits so much from Kerr's offensive system, his teammates, and being able to hide on D. As such I'd always took a bit off how I felt about his seasons. I never vote on this but if I had Curry might've got #1 on my list in only 2017 (actually thinking on it more Westbrook would've easily took #1 on my list so I'd never say Curry had the best season).

This last series he wasn't able to thrive off great coaching and while he stepped up offensively (easily his best offensive series IMO considering the strength of the D he played) his defense was godawful. I'd go as far to say it's easily one of the worst defensive series I've seen from someone, it seemed like every other minute Toronto hit a wide open shot because Steph left a 40+% shooter in the corner and Klay was looking at Curry like:

Watch on YouTube

[No-more-rings]

More thoughts on things:

- I was starting to lean toward Joel Embiid in my 5 spot (after fighting against it in previous discussion), but I realized that it didn't really make sense to me to drop Durant below Embiid based on injury when Durant played so much more, and even played more in the playoffs. This is starting to make my POY ballot look like:

1. Giannis
2. Steph
3. Kawhi
4. Harden
5. Durant
HM: Embiid, Jokic, Lillard, George, Green

- Curry & Harden are my OPOY top two. Considering Durant, Jokic & Lillard for the 3rd spot.

- DPOY I'd stick with Giannis & Gobert as my top 2. George, Embiid & Green all merit discussion. I'm not inclined at the moment to signal out a particular Raptor, but that was was an incredible team effort.

- I find myself siding with Toronto for both COY & EOY. Noteworthy because I've long been someone who knocked the choice of Ujiri back when he won it on Denver, but his moves involving Kawhi/DeRozan, Nurse/Casey, and Gasol this past year where perfectly pitched, and certainly aided by other choices he's made paying off.

What made you put Giannis back at 1st?

Also i don't know how KD possibly makes top 5 being he missed so much of the postseason and his injury is the reason they aren't 3 times in a row champions.

[Doctor MJ]

More thoughts on things:

- I was starting to lean toward Joel Embiid in my 5 spot (after fighting against it in previous discussion), but I realized that it didn't really make sense to me to drop Durant below Embiid based on injury when Durant played so much more, and even played more in the playoffs. This is starting to make my POY ballot look like:

1. Giannis
2. Steph
3. Kawhi
4. Harden
5. Durant
HM: Embiid, Jokic, Lillard, George, Green

- Curry & Harden are my OPOY top two. Considering Durant, Jokic & Lillard for the 3rd spot.

- DPOY I'd stick with Giannis & Gobert as my top 2. George, Embiid & Green all merit discussion. I'm not inclined at the moment to signal out a particular Raptor, but that was was an incredible team effort.

- I find myself siding with Toronto for both COY & EOY. Noteworthy because I've long been someone who knocked the choice of Ujiri back when he won it on Denver, but his moves involving Kawhi/DeRozan, Nurse/Casey, and Gasol this past year where perfectly pitched, and certainly aided by other choices he's made paying off.

What made you put Giannis back at 1st?

Also i don't know how KD possibly makes top 5 being he missed so much of the postseason and his injury is the reason they aren't 3 times in a row champions.

So Kawhi rose to the top of my list with the most salient narrative. I watched Bucks-Raptors and was enamored with Kawhi's role in stopping Giannis.That made me see it as Kawhi outplaying Giannis when it really mattered, and thus Kawhi should top my list even though Giannis was clearly the top performing player all year.

But, well, then ElGee made me see the Toronto defense very differently. It strikes me more about one coach outcoaching the other as opposed to one player outplaying the other. This led me to re-evaluate Kawhi back down a bit. He's still risen considerably from where he was before the playoffs, but I am inclined to believe that his actual impact was less than Giannis or Steph.

Regarding Durant's injury, well first let me say that I think everyone has a right to judge injuries differently in an award like this. How I tend to see Durant here is more like he earned a certain level of achievement through the season and then it got frozen with the injury. I think it's more appropriate to evaluate others passing the injured player than to just drop him because he's injured. So then the question is:

Who did enough in the time after Durant went down to surpass him?

Basically, Giannis and Harden were already ahead of Durant, and the only two players I feel comfortable at this moment saying they surpassed him are Curry and Kawhi.

If you'd like to make an argument for someone who did, please do. He got hurt on May 8th. Since that time, other candidates have done the following:

Lillard, 6 games but swept by Durant-less Warriors
Jokic & Embiid, 2 games

I don't really think that should be enough to move them ahead of Durant. If you already had them ahead of Durant, cool. If you're making a statement about your assessment of Duran't general durability, okay but...Embiid.

I think the guy who may actually have the best argument over Durant is Draymond Green, but it's generally acknowledged that Green coasted a lot of the season so it feels weird to give him the nod based on how good he looked when he turned on overdrive after Durant's injury.

[Joey Wheeler]

Before getting Kawhi, the Raptors were pretty much a meme team, getting a lot of RS wins before getting daddied by Lebron in the playoffs. Rockets of the East, only not as good.

Downplaying Kawhi's role in their transformation just makes no sense, he's clearly the engine of this championship. Even after Kawhi joined, most people remained low on the Raptors: according to RGM, the Bucks were going to smash them in the CF, then the Warriors were going to dominate them even without KD. I don't understand this resistance to giving him credit.

[Doctor MJ]

Before getting Kawhi, the Raptors were pretty much a meme team, getting a lot of RS wins before getting daddied by Lebron in the playoffs. Rockets of the East, only not as good.

Downplaying Kawhi's role in their transformation just makes no sense, he's clearly the engine of this championship. Even after Kawhi joined, most people remained low on the Raptors: according to RGM, the Bucks were going to smash them in the CF, then the Warriors were going to dominate them even without KD. I don't understand this resistance to giving him credit.

It's not like Kawhi's not on my ballot, or that some other Raptor is. He's a great player. Is he the best?

Well, everyone had Giannis ahead of Kawhi until the Buck-Raptors series, so I think it should be pretty clear why we shouldn't just anoint the winner of the series as the better player. One thing to be convinced by it, another thing to flip player rankings simply because of it.

You're quite right that the Raptors sans Kawhi are not to be taken seriously as a contender...the same is true of the Bucks without Giannis, and further, I think pretty much everyone would bet on the Bucks doing worse without Giannis than we saw the Raptors do without Kawhi this year. That's not "proof" Giannis should be ranked higher, but it should make it clear why someone can put someone ahead of Kawhi without being biased against Kawhi.

[Texas Chuck]

I think the guy who may actually have the best argument over Durant is Draymond Green, but it's generally acknowledged that Green coasted a lot of the season so it feels weird to give him the nod based on how good he looked when he turned on overdrive after Durant's injury.

Yeah Draymond is tough. The biggest questions for me in regards to him would be:

1. Did the coasting enable him to play at the level he did when he turned it on?
2. How much do I penalize him if the answer to 1 is yes? Kawhi had load management because Nurse rightfully realized they would be fine in the RS doing so and he wanted him to be the best he could be come playoffs. If Draymond has that luxury should I penalize him for taking advantage of it when it clearly makes the most sense for the good of the team?
3. Did Draymond's "coastin" cause Durant and Klay to do more than they would have--in part possibly leaning towards the injuries?

My best guess answers:

1. Yeah probably a little bit, but I believe in Draymond come playoff time, period. My default expectation until shown otherwise is he's going to be great in the playoffs.
2. I wouldn't penalize him IRL-it's the right move. Should it impact POY? Yeah to a degree, but not a big one for me
3. Impossible to know, so I wouldn't factor it in.


I don't do a POY top 5, but Draymond would either be in or right on the outside I think. I'd have a hard time putting 2 Warriors ahead of him for sure.

[Doctor MJ]

I think the guy who may actually have the best argument over Durant is Draymond Green, but it's generally acknowledged that Green coasted a lot of the season so it feels weird to give him the nod based on how good he looked when he turned on overdrive after Durant's injury.

Yeah Draymond is tough. The biggest questions for me in regards to him would be:

1. Did the coasting enable him to play at the level he did when he turned it on?
2. How much do I penalize him if the answer to 1 is yes? Kawhi had load management because Nurse rightfully realized they would be fine in the RS doing so and he wanted him to be the best he could be come playoffs. If Draymond has that luxury should I penalize him for taking advantage of it when it clearly makes the most sense for the good of the team?
3. Did Draymond's "coastin" cause Durant and Klay to do more than they would have--in part possibly leaning towards the injuries?

My best guess answers:

1. Yeah probably a little bit, but I believe in Draymond come playoff time, period. My default expectation until shown otherwise is he's going to be great in the playoffs.
2. I wouldn't penalize him IRL-it's the right move. Should it impact POY? Yeah to a degree, but not a big one for me
3. Impossible to know, so I wouldn't factor it in.


I don't do a POY top 5, but Draymond would either be in or right on the outside I think. I'd have a hard time putting 2 Warriors ahead of him for sure.

Here's a real basic stat that strikes me as a good sanity check here. We all know that the statistical foundation of Dray's status as a potential Warrior MVP is the +/- stats. In earlier year Dray's numbers would at times surpass Curry's.

Here's the raw +/- for Warriors this year (regular and post season)

Curry +809 (1st in league btw)
Durant +741
Dray +590

I have a hard time putting Dray above Durant when there was just a lot more winning going on on the court with Durant out there this year than with Dray.

Also while I'm at it:

Giannis is 2nd behind Curry, he had a +765.
Toronto has 3 guys with scores higher than Dray, none of them are Kawhi.
Kawhi's total was 512.

[Outside]

I think the guy who may actually have the best argument over Durant is Draymond Green, but it's generally acknowledged that Green coasted a lot of the season so it feels weird to give him the nod based on how good he looked when he turned on overdrive after Durant's injury.

Yeah Draymond is tough. The biggest questions for me in regards to him would be:

1. Did the coasting enable him to play at the level he did when he turned it on?
2. How much do I penalize him if the answer to 1 is yes? Kawhi had load management because Nurse rightfully realized they would be fine in the RS doing so and he wanted him to be the best he could be come playoffs. If Draymond has that luxury should I penalize him for taking advantage of it when it clearly makes the most sense for the good of the team?
3. Did Draymond's "coastin" cause Durant and Klay to do more than they would have--in part possibly leaning towards the injuries?

My best guess answers:

1. Yeah probably a little bit, but I believe in Draymond come playoff time, period. My default expectation until shown otherwise is he's going to be great in the playoffs.
2. I wouldn't penalize him IRL-it's the right move. Should it impact POY? Yeah to a degree, but not a big one for me
3. Impossible to know, so I wouldn't factor it in.


I don't do a POY top 5, but Draymond would either be in or right on the outside I think. I'd have a hard time putting 2 Warriors ahead of him for sure.

Just to point out regarding Draymond, rather than just "coasting," he played through a turf toe injury for much of the season. He wasn't fully healthy until around the ASB. At that point, he was overweight and out of shape, and he made the commitment to lose weight and get in shape for the playoffs, but it's not like he took half the RS off just to save up for the PS.

[eminence]

I'm thinking Kawhi at #4 myself. Don't think he definitively outplayed the top tier enough in the playoffs (I'd say Curry actually outplayed him) to make up for the RS gap. Still deciding on Curry/Harden/Giannis for order from 1 to 3. Jokic vs Embiid for #5. HM to KD/Dray/PG13/etc, but not quite there for me.

[PaulieWal]

I'm thinking Kawhi at #4 myself. Don't think he definitively outplayed the top tier enough in the playoffs (I'd say Curry actually outplayed him) to make up for the RS gap. Still deciding on Curry/Harden/Giannis for order from 1 to 3. Jokic vs Embiid for #5. HM to KD/Dray/PG13/etc, but not quite there for me.

How the heck did Curry outplay Leonard?

[eminence]

I'm thinking Kawhi at #4 myself. Don't think he definitively outplayed the top tier enough in the playoffs (I'd say Curry actually outplayed him) to make up for the RS gap. Still deciding on Curry/Harden/Giannis for order from 1 to 3. Jokic vs Embiid for #5. HM to KD/Dray/PG13/etc, but not quite there for me.

How the heck did Curry outplay Leonard?

Same way Curry outplays most players? Ran around a bunch and watched as the Raptors favored following him over challenging wide open looks. Better passing as well. Not a big margin, and I can see the argument for Kawhi (Kawhi was ~5th on the Raptors D, but still much better than Curry).

[Outside]

I'm thinking Kawhi at #4 myself. Don't think he definitively outplayed the top tier enough in the playoffs (I'd say Curry actually outplayed him) to make up for the RS gap. Still deciding on Curry/Harden/Giannis for order from 1 to 3. Jokic vs Embiid for #5. HM to KD/Dray/PG13/etc, but not quite there for me.

How the heck did Curry outplay Leonard?

Yeah, I'm as much an advocate of Curry's positive impact as anyone, and I have Leonard clearly ahead of Curry overall in the PS. Curry was really good, especially once Durant went out, but he was subpar for a number of games prior to that (not awful as some detractors portray, but definitely subpar). Leonard was rock solid throughout the PS.

I could see someone putting Curry above Kawhi if they value the RS way more than the PS, but not based on the PS.

[eminence]

I'm thinking Kawhi at #4 myself. Don't think he definitively outplayed the top tier enough in the playoffs (I'd say Curry actually outplayed him) to make up for the RS gap. Still deciding on Curry/Harden/Giannis for order from 1 to 3. Jokic vs Embiid for #5. HM to KD/Dray/PG13/etc, but not quite there for me.

How the heck did Curry outplay Leonard?

Yeah, I'm as much an advocate of Curry's positive impact as anyone, and I have Leonard clearly ahead of Curry overall in the PS. Curry was really good, especially once Durant went out, but he was subpar for a number of games prior to that (not awful as some detractors portray, but definitely subpar). Leonard was rock solid throughout the PS.

I could see someone putting Curry above Kawhi if they value the RS way more than the PS, but not based on the PS.

Ahh, that could be the disconnect, I was only referencing the finals in that Kawhi/Curry comp.