Future Free Agent Thread

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https://www.lockedonjazz.net/jazz/locked-on-jazz-jazz-strategy-and-why-mike-conley-might-be-the-right-move-and-jeremy-woo-of-si-com-on-the-nba-draft/

#LockeWatch: "The more I talk to people around the league, the more I think about things I'm guessing a large portion of what the Jazz do this off-season is going to be done PRIOR to July 1st"

-Jazz want talent upgrade - significant interest in doing it at PG
-less of an interest of doing it at PF if you can keep Favors.
-slight upgrade at PF? if you keep Favors (i.e. what Locke did in the mock draft - TRADE THE FIRST ROUNDER for player who cannot stay on the floor in the playoffs!!!!)
-Kemba is probably not possible - he's not leaving supermax to come to Utah, also has options for NY and LA...
-Jimmy Butler - probably not interested in
-Middleton - not likely - MKE probably going to pay him
-Harris - if Butler leaves PHI, Harris is going to stay, but if he leaves, there are lots of of other options for him
-he seems to think the Jazz don't have much of a chance with the FAs above
-the only options left - Russell and Conley
-He's heard Russell and PHX are tied together and likely destination for DLo
-if you can, why not just do Conley deal now then? That's the safe route. if you can do it without losing Favors, is it even more appealing?

So in essence - Locke is selling the security of getting Conley and not risking being left empty-handed. I hate this mode of thinking so **** much. It's the exact frame of mind that has us in the position we are - keep picking the safest route with the highest floor and keep avoiding taking chances just so you don't end up in the worst case scenario.

[KqWIN]

The big thing, which we all already knew, is that we don't really have a shot at anyone in FA. With the way the league works, I think we already know if we can get Tobias or Russell, and the answer is no.

What I don't actually like is having Favors dictate our future. I love the guy, but we can't let our emotional attachment with him dictate our future. We shouldn't be bending over backwards to keep him, and we shouldn't bypass higher potential moves for the sake of keeping him.

Randle vs Favors is the best example of this. There's zero percent chance we would even consider making that moves, but it's pretty obvious which player gives us a higher potential ceiling. If you want to complain about Conley being a floor raising move, complain about Favors. Conley at least raises the ceiling for a year or two.

[AingesBurner]

The big thing, which we all already knew, is that we don't really have a shot at anyone in FA. With the way the league works, I think we already know if we can get Tobias or Russell, and the answer is no.

What I don't actually like is having Favors dictate our future. I love the guy, but we can't let our emotional attachment with him dictate our future. We shouldn't be bending over backwards to keep him, and we shouldn't bypass higher potential moves for the sake of keeping him.

Randle vs Favors is the best example of this. There's zero percent chance we would even consider making that moves, but it's pretty obvious which player gives us a higher potential ceiling. If you want to complain about Conley being a floor raising move, complain about Favors. Conley at least raises the ceiling for a year or two.

This is why we get along KqWin, I totally agree, why are we letting our expensive backup center dictate our future?! Randle is a much better player who cannot only play starting 4 but backup 5 as well! People love Favs because he loves Utah which is great but why do we need that to get in the way of winning?

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This is why we get along KqWin, I totally agree, why are we letting our expensive backup center dictate our future?! Randle is a much better player who cannot only play starting 4 but backup 5 as well! People love Favs because he loves Utah which is great but why do we need that to get in the way of winning?

Randle is not a better player than Favors. He might be better fit next to Gobert, though...

[KqWIN]

Randle may not be a perfect fit, but he's 24 years old with lots to improve on and pretty damn good to begin with. Personally, I think we should see Randle in a similar scope as Russell. This guy already scores 21 PPG on 60% TS...imagine if his jump shot keeps improving.

I honestly think Randle has all NBA talent...but to be fair, he is a truly awful +/- guy. Not just bad, but awful. His lineups do not do well despite his production.

[AingesBurner]

This is why we get along KqWin, I totally agree, why are we letting our expensive backup center dictate our future?! Randle is a much better player who cannot only play starting 4 but backup 5 as well! People love Favs because he loves Utah which is great but why do we need that to get in the way of winning?

Randle is not a better player than Favors. He might be better fit next to Gobert, though...

I have to say I’d go with Randle because he is improving all aspects of his game while Favors has not at all.

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This is why we get along KqWin, I totally agree, why are we letting our expensive backup center dictate our future?! Randle is a much better player who cannot only play starting 4 but backup 5 as well! People love Favs because he loves Utah which is great but why do we need that to get in the way of winning?

Randle is not a better player than Favors. He might be better fit next to Gobert, though...

I have to say I’d go with Randle because he is improving all aspects of his game while Favors has not at all.

Randle can improve for the next 10 years and still not reach Favors' level. It's shocking to me how much Favors is being underrated by Jazz fans. The only reason we are even contemplating letting him go is because of the horrible fit next to our best player. I absolutely understand why DLZ are not eager to include him in a Conley trade. Favors is actually a good player. Randle is a good concept of an NBA player that has been a bad actual NBA player pretty much for the duration of his career. Scoring =/= good player.

[AingesBurner]

Randle is not a better player than Favors. He might be better fit next to Gobert, though...

I have to say I’d go with Randle because he is improving all aspects of his game while Favors has not at all.

Randle can improve for the next 10 years and still not reach Favors' level. It's shocking to me how much Favors is being underrated by Jazz fans. The only reason we are even contemplating letting him go is because of the horrible fit next to our best player. I absolutely understand why DLZ are not eager to include him in a Conley trade. Favors is actually a good player. Randle is a good concept of an NBA player that has been a bad actual NBA player pretty much for the duration of his career. Scoring =/= good player.

Favors has been around the best development coach in the league for 5 years and is still the same player, Randle has not and still has improved as a player.

[KqWIN]

Randle is not a better player than Favors. He might be better fit next to Gobert, though...

I have to say I’d go with Randle because he is improving all aspects of his game while Favors has not at all.

Randle can improve for the next 10 years and still not reach Favors' level. It's shocking to me how much Favors is being underrated by Jazz fans. The only reason we are even contemplating letting him go is because of the horrible fit next to our best player. I absolutely understand why DLZ are not eager to include him in a Conley trade. Favors is actually a good player. Randle is a good concept of an NBA player that has been a bad actual NBA player pretty much for the duration of his career. Scoring =/= good player.

What are we comparing here though? Randle is already a better PF than Favors.

If you can convince me how Favors significantly raises our ceiling, I'm here for it, but I don't believe that to be the case. If you hate the idea of increasing our floor in favor of increasing our ceiling, why does that not apply to Favors?

Everyday I see people complaining about floor/ceiling, yet I haven't seen an argument as to how Favors fits into the championship mentality and not the floor raising mentality. When trying to secure a championship, nobody in their right mind would stress backup C as a huge priority. Especially when their undisputed, best player who you're about to supermax is a C.

[Crunch 99]

Favors is criminally underrated. I'll be happy if we keep him, but I wouldn't be totally unhappy with shaking things up with Randall with the idea that he might be a better fit.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5XZt0

[AingesBurner]

I have to say I’d go with Randle because he is improving all aspects of his game while Favors has not at all.

Randle can improve for the next 10 years and still not reach Favors' level. It's shocking to me how much Favors is being underrated by Jazz fans. The only reason we are even contemplating letting him go is because of the horrible fit next to our best player. I absolutely understand why DLZ are not eager to include him in a Conley trade. Favors is actually a good player. Randle is a good concept of an NBA player that has been a bad actual NBA player pretty much for the duration of his career. Scoring =/= good player.

What are we comparing here though? Randle is already a better PF than Favors.

If you can convince me how Favors significantly raises our ceiling, I'm here for it, but I don't believe that to be the case. If you hate the idea of increasing our floor in favor of increasing our ceiling, why does that not apply to Favors?

Everyday I see people complaining about floor/ceiling, yet I haven't seen an argument as to how Favors fits into the championship mentality and not the floor raising mentality. When trying to secure a championship, nobody in their right mind would stress backup C as a huge priority. Especially when their undisputed, best player who you're about to supermax is a C.

You are 100% correct, people just love Favors because he loves Utah. It’s why I love Kevin Love.

[Luigi]

So if we already know Russell and Harris aren't coming, then it really is time to go get Conley.

If he opts out and leaves, we will have tons of cap space for another attempt at free agents next summer. And If he plays well and wants to stay, we could maybe get him on a reasonable deal (3/60?) going forward. He has playoff experience and might fit in perfectly.

It's also possible that Conley might make Favors into a beast. Having guards with guard skills like shooting and ball handling on the floor (looking at you Dante) could provide the spacing and dynamics for Favors and Gobert to actually punish smaller lineups. Both set a mean pick, and Favors can pick and pop as well as roll.

[AingesBurner]

Favors is criminally underrated. I'll be happy if we keep him, but I wouldn't be totally unhappy with shaking things up with Randall with the idea that he might be a better fit.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5XZt0

Based on per 36 Favors is a better defensive player.

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I have to say I’d go with Randle because he is improving all aspects of his game while Favors has not at all.

Randle can improve for the next 10 years and still not reach Favors' level. It's shocking to me how much Favors is being underrated by Jazz fans. The only reason we are even contemplating letting him go is because of the horrible fit next to our best player. I absolutely understand why DLZ are not eager to include him in a Conley trade. Favors is actually a good player. Randle is a good concept of an NBA player that has been a bad actual NBA player pretty much for the duration of his career. Scoring =/= good player.

What are we comparing here though? Randle is already a better PF than Favors.

If you can convince me how Favors significantly raises our ceiling, I'm here for it, but I don't believe that to be the case. If you hate the idea of increasing our floor in favor of increasing our ceiling, why does that not apply to Favors?

Everyday I see people complaining about floor/ceiling, yet I haven't seen an argument as to how Favors fits into the championship mentality and not the floor raising mentality. When trying to secure a championship, nobody in their right mind would stress backup C as a huge priority. Especially when their undisputed, best player who you're about to supermax is a C.

I agree with you that Favors is a raising the floor play. That's why I'm willing to let him go if it gives us a good enough piece, even if I think he's a great player.

But I am also not sure he's worse PF than Randle. I'm just not as sold on him as you are. Randle might be better than Favors with Gobert specifically simply because he has more versatile and non-overlapping skillset with Gobert. I don't think he would be better next to... say... a center like Brook Lopez. It's all about the combination of skillsets... and the Gobert+Favors combo is extremely overlapping and non-complementary. I also realize that this is a floor play, but you have to account for the 16 minutes a game of elite bench center play you are losing. It is a luxury to have your DPOY sit down for a break and have a center that makes your bench D better than when the DPOY was in the game.

It's a shame we somehow managed to put two of the best 10 centers in the game on the same team but we cannot find a PG to save our lives. And now we cannot even get the appropriate value for Favors simply because we tanked it by having to play him 1. Injured and 2. out of position... I have no idea why Capela or Adams can fetch more than Favors. This is insanity to me. He's better than both in almost every aspect of the game you can think of and he's cheaper than both.

[KqWIN]

Favors is criminally underrated. I'll be happy if we keep him, but I wouldn't be totally unhappy with shaking things up with Randall either.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.fcgi?request=1&sum=0&player_id1_hint=Julius+Randle&player_id1_select=Julius+Randle&y1=2019&player_id1=randlju01&idx=players&player_id2_hint=Derrick+Favors&player_id2_select=Derrick+Favors&y2=2019&player_id2=favorde01&idx=players&player_id3_hint=Tobias+Harris&player_id3_select=Tobias+Harris&y3=2019&player_id3=harrito02&idx=players#stats-playoffs_per_poss::none

I think Favors is a top 10 C in the league, am I criminally underrating him?

The Favors situation is a microcosm of a lot of the things we criticize and make fun of the FO for. Favors is safe. He raises our floor. He's a great guy and locker room presence. But Favors does not raise our ceiling. He can't stay on the court with Gobert in the playoffs.

Let's face it, the only reason why there is a huge push for Favors is because we like him. If Favors did not play for the Jazz and we didn't have an emotional attachment, we would not even consider signing him. Think about it. We are going to sign Rudy to a supermax in a couple years. Donovan will also be on a max. Why is it a such a huge priority to fill Rudy's backup?

Keeping Favors is fine if there are no other options. It is not fine to pass up all star talent or potential all star talent to secure a backup, who is paid like a starter, for your supermaxed player.

[KqWIN]

I agree with you that Favors is a raising the floor play. That's why I'm willing to let him go if it gives us a good enough piece, even if I think he's a great player.

But I am also not sure he's worse PF than Randle. I'm just not as sold on him as you are. Randle might be better than Favors with Gobert specifically simply because he has more versatile and non-overlapping skillset with Gobert. I don't think he would be better next to... say... a center like Brook Lopez. It's all about the combination of skillsets... and the Gobert+Favors combo is extremely overlapping and non-complementary. I also realize that this is a floor play, but you have to account for the 16 minutes a game of elite bench center play you are losing. It is a luxury to have your DPOY sit down for a break and have a center that makes your bench D better than when the DPOY was in the game.

It's a shame we somehow managed to put two of the best 10 centers in the game on the same team but we cannot find a PG to save our lives. And now we cannot even get the appropriate value for Favors simply because we tanked it by having to play him 1. Injured and 2. out of position... I have no idea why Capela or Adams can fetch more than Favors. This is insanity to me. He's better than both in almost every aspect of the game you can think of.

I understand your POV. Favors is a really, really good player. But we are about to make Rudy Gobert the biggest contract in NBA history. It's just not smart to put this high of priority on his backup.

Your last point is why I've been calling for a Favors trade for years. Remember when we wouldn't trade him for a BKN pick? It'd feel really nice right now if we had Brown or Tatum instead. Instead of trading him, we saw his value completely deteriorate. Much of that was due to injury, but right now he is healthy and playing the best ball of his life. He still has no value outside of being an expiring because we make him look awful. If Capela and Adams had to spend 40% of their minutes standing in a corner and missing the occasional wide open 3, they would also have no value.

[Luigi]

I'll just put up or shut up on this: Conley will make a Favors/Gobert frontcourt great again.

Having a sharp shooter who can pass and run a set from our other guard (some liked to call them point guards not too long ago ) will change the offense. Not to mention having a second scoring threat. He's an efficient player above the 20% usage mark. You won't even recognize the offense. People will be begging for Favors and Gobert to rock their world with twin tower power. Sign me up!

[KqWIN]

Any coach with half a brain will make it a 4v5 whenever Favors and Gobert are on the court. You can have Steph, Klay, and KD next to Favors and Gobert. It will still be a 4v5.

Logically, it just makes sense to play a PF who fits with your supermax player. No matter who else is on the court, Favors is the worst type of player to pair Gobert with. Don't move heaven and hell just so you can put the worst fit possible next to your record setting supermax player.

[Crunch 99]

Favors is criminally underrated. I'll be happy if we keep him, but I wouldn't be totally unhappy with shaking things up with Randall with the idea that he might be a better fit.

http://bkref.com/tiny/5XZt0

Based on per 36 Favors is a better defensive player.

Favors is ranked significantly higher than Randall and Harris on many metrics: Net Rating, RPM, DRPM and BPM for example. Randall is barely a positive RPM player. Favors is good enough that I said earlier I would seriously consider trading Gobert in the future for a great two way player like Paul George and start Favors at Center --- in order to avoid a supermax contract.

That said, I was pretty impressed with Randall's grit and improvement last season when I watched him play. He's a young player on the rise that would fit better next to Gobert than Favors.

[Luigi]

Any coach with half a brain will make it a 4v5 whenever Favors and Gobert are on the court. You can have Steph, Klay, and KD next to Favors and Gobert. It will still be a 4v5.

Logically, it just makes sense to play a PF who fits with your supermax player. No matter who else is on the court, Favors is the worst type of player to pair Gobert with. Don't move heaven and hell just so you can put the worst fit possible next to your record setting supermax player.

It's not that bad. Having a point guard who is an offensive threat will change everything. Rubio, Exum made it 4 v 5. Crowder made it a 4 v 6 with that shot some nights . Favors still found ways to contribute (and at least his missed wide open 3s were occasional instead of incessant!). He'll be a beast in a Conley pick and roll while Gobert sets off ball screens for Ingles and Mitchell and crashes the boards, or vice versa. Board men get paid . At least for 8 minutes a night. I'm not worried. 8 minutes a night of those sequences, and we'll be talking about getting another backup center so we can do it longer.

Ingles, Mitchell, and Conley better be practicing their perimeter skills all summer though. They should be shooting and moving like they mean it.