Official Speculation Thread ‘19-'20 I: Big decisions on the horizon

[VFX]

Let Vuc walk.

It's the "addition by subtraction" factor that you can't quantify before it happens. Aaron Gordon seems primed to benefit from a Vuc (and Fournier)-less team. Bamba never has to replicate what Vuc gives us if Gordon/Isaac/Fultz are able to thrive in a new system.

It's not about the number of years or the dollars we're willing to commit to Vuc. It should be about committing to a system.

Coach Clifford got us into the playoffs, not Vucevic. I can't see the logic in this team doubling down on squeaking into the playoffs and going for year eight of 20 and 10's from Vuc.

I hope he is offered a max contract so WeHam can gracefully not resign the team's first all-star since Dwight. Though I hope they are above such public pressure to begin with.

Oh look, another voice of reason.

[Bakomagic]

Besides the awful contract, cp3 seems like a jerk and not in a good, competitive, make your teammates work harder kind of way, but a chemistry killing, blame everything on the players or staff, pouty, emotional make mistakes in crucial moments of playoff games kind of way !

Plus he’s only going to get worse as a player and he isn’t the type to decline gracefully

[Nyce_1]

Pulled this from another Magic forum:

Here's some vucevic math:
Vucevic was bad in fourth quarters and in clutch situations so when you're talking about replacing his offense you're talking about his gross production over an entire game and not a specific role as a closer. This is different from a guy like kemba who not only is 25 points (or whatever) to Charlotte but also fills the responsibility of "guy who gets us a bucket at the end of games". Vucevic wasn't that guy for us. Fournier and Ross were that. So you can kind of judge vucevic based on his numbers without multipliers. 

Fans look at vucevic's absence as replacing 20.5 points. But that's not really the right way to look at it. We're not replacing his total points. We're replacing the difference in scoring between vucevic and his replacements. 
A vucevic-Birch rotation last year got us about 27 ppg over 48 minutes. 

If we're set with a rotation next year of Bamba-Birch, Birch-Bamba, replacement level center-Bamba or Bamba-Birch-replacement level center I think the reasonable expectation of production from our center position on offense is 18 ppg from the entire rotation. 
So we're not really replacing 21ppg, we're replacing 9. 

How do we replace this 9? The biggest chunk is backup point guard. Briscoe during his best run got us 4.4 ppg inefficiently for 20mpg. Grant when he was backup got us pretty much the exact same production. Fultz when he plays averages 8ppg over 20mpg. So if Fultz plays a full season and is nothing more than the same inefficient but dynamic backup we're pretty much halfway there. If he can't play we need to find a capable backup. Nothing spectacular. Just a guy who can get a few buckets and not completely kill us by being in the game. 
The other half can be picked up by the rest of the rotation. Maybe Isaac takes a leap. Maybe everyone in the rotation not discussed above picks up an extra 0.8 ppg. Either way my point is there's a easy way to connect the dots and find a reasonable path to maintaining our scoring. 
Now you might say "vucevic meant so much to our offense, how would it be this easy to replace him?"

Well 1. We wouldn't run the same offense. 2. I think vucevic's impact on our offense is overstated. 

If we were overly reliant on vucevic's offense, our offensive efficiency would rise and fall in step with vucevic's. There's a pretty evident line separating vucevic's two seasons that I've discussed before. The first 25 games where he played like Dirk and the subsequent 55 games where he played like a normal vucevic season. Yet we had a much better offense after vucevic's decline. 

Why? Little things. Shifting from Grant to briscoe/MCW. Bamba to Birch. Simmons to iwundu. Isaac finding his shot. So I'm not sure little improvements can't fill a vucevic hole again. 

Ultimately the offense should take a small step back because of vucevic's reliability but I'm pretty confident that any gain in defense should cover the minor step backwards. 

[fendilim]

Pulled this from another Magic forum:

Here's some vucevic math:
Vucevic was bad in fourth quarters and in clutch situations so when you're talking about replacing his offense you're talking about his gross production over an entire game and not a specific role as a closer. This is different from a guy like kemba who not only is 25 points (or whatever) to Charlotte but also fills the responsibility of "guy who gets us a bucket at the end of games". Vucevic wasn't that guy for us. Fournier and Ross were that. So you can kind of judge vucevic based on his numbers without multipliers. 

Fans look at vucevic's absence as replacing 20.5 points. But that's not really the right way to look at it. We're not replacing his total points. We're replacing the difference in scoring between vucevic and his replacements. 
A vucevic-Birch rotation last year got us about 27 ppg over 48 minutes. 

If we're set with a rotation next year of Bamba-Birch, Birch-Bamba, replacement level center-Bamba or Bamba-Birch-replacement level center I think the reasonable expectation of production from our center position on offense is 18 ppg from the entire rotation. 
So we're not really replacing 21ppg, we're replacing 9. 

How do we replace this 9? The biggest chunk is backup point guard. Briscoe during his best run got us 4.4 ppg inefficiently for 20mpg. Grant when he was backup got us pretty much the exact same production. Fultz when he plays averages 8ppg over 20mpg. So if Fultz plays a full season and is nothing more than the same inefficient but dynamic backup we're pretty much halfway there. If he can't play we need to find a capable backup. Nothing spectacular. Just a guy who can get a few buckets and not completely kill us by being in the game. 
The other half can be picked up by the rest of the rotation. Maybe Isaac takes a leap. Maybe everyone in the rotation not discussed above picks up an extra 0.8 ppg. Either way my point is there's a easy way to connect the dots and find a reasonable path to maintaining our scoring. 
Now you might say "vucevic meant so much to our offense, how would it be this easy to replace him?"

Well 1. We wouldn't run the same offense. 2. I think vucevic's impact on our offense is overstated. 

If we were overly reliant on vucevic's offense, our offensive efficiency would rise and fall in step with vucevic's. There's a pretty evident line separating vucevic's two seasons that I've discussed before. The first 25 games where he played like Dirk and the subsequent 55 games where he played like a normal vucevic season. Yet we had a much better offense after vucevic's decline. 

Why? Little things. Shifting from Grant to briscoe/MCW. Bamba to Birch. Simmons to iwundu. Isaac finding his shot. So I'm not sure little improvements can't fill a vucevic hole again. 

Ultimately the offense should take a small step back because of vucevic's reliability but I'm pretty confident that any gain in defense should cover the minor step backwards. 

Pretty sure the poster missed watching games. Vuc Was, unfortunately, our most reliable go-to guy last season. I can easily recall plays where he was our go-to out of timeouts when we needed baskets and he delivered.

And lol at Gordon being primed to get a larger role. He did under Vogel, and see how that turned out. Cant we just settle that he is better playing this role?

[Nyce_1]

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[Howard Mass]

Vuc,Zo,Ingram, Holiday, Ball, plus whatever the #4 pick turns into

Now thats an instant rebuild if ive ever seen on...Man i wish the NBA would of shown up love after the dwight nonsense....seems like we were the only team to lose a superstar and not be gifted the #1 pick in a prime year.....But i guess its all "luck" huh

The package they got for Dwight was pretty good.

It's those Picks/Pick Swaps in 2023-2025 that LAL gave to NOP that could make the deal great.

I'm just upset about the 1pick

When NO traded CP3, they got Anthony Davis
When Minn traded love, they got Wiggins and #1 pick next year (Kat)
When cle lost LeBron they got 3 #1 in 4 years

We lost Dwight, we never got 1st and never moved up in any lotto
Had the worst record over a 5 year period and only got 1 top 3 pick yet Lakers got 3 straight 2nd overall and now 4th

Just seems weird

This is true but it's also about who you Draft.

in 2014, would you rather have Andrew Wiggins than Aaron Gordon?

Go back and look at Drafts. It's not always about luck although I would have loved to have Trae Young last year.

[Howard Mass]

The package they got for Dwight was pretty good.

It's those Picks/Pick Swaps in 2023-2025 that LAL gave to NOP that could make the deal great.

I'm just upset about the 1pick

When NO traded CP3, they got Anthony Davis
When Minn traded love, they got Wiggins and #1 pick next year (Kat)
When cle lost LeBron they got 3 #1 in 4 years

We lost Dwight, we never got 1st and never moved up in any lotto
Had the worst record over a 5 year period and only got 1 top 3 pick yet Lakers got 3 straight 2nd overall and now 4th

Just seems weird

We used our draft lottery luck and threw it away with Penny and Shaq

Shaq was always leaving. I'll always believe that.

[Howard Mass]

I'm just upset about the 1pick

When NO traded CP3, they got Anthony Davis
When Minn traded love, they got Wiggins and #1 pick next year (Kat)
When cle lost LeBron they got 3 #1 in 4 years

We lost Dwight, we never got 1st and never moved up in any lotto
Had the worst record over a 5 year period and only got 1 top 3 pick yet Lakers got 3 straight 2nd overall and now 4th

Just seems weird

We used our draft lottery luck and threw it away with Penny and Shaq

I guess...but that was over 25 years ago

Please don't make me feel old.

[Howard Mass]

I'm just upset about the 1pick

When NO traded CP3, they got Anthony Davis
When Minn traded love, they got Wiggins and #1 pick next year (Kat)
When cle lost LeBron they got 3 #1 in 4 years

We lost Dwight, we never got 1st and never moved up in any lotto
Had the worst record over a 5 year period and only got 1 top 3 pick yet Lakers got 3 straight 2nd overall and now 4th

Just seems weird

We used our draft lottery luck and threw it away with Penny and Shaq

I guess...but that was over 25 years ago

Please don't make me feel old.

[ezzzp]

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[MartinsIzAfraud]

Boston could be Vuc suitors very easily with the Horford news.

[ezzzp]

Boston could be Vuc suitors very easily with the Horford news.

Without Horford and Kyrie, plus renouncing all their free agents except for Rozier and Theis, Boston will only have around $18m in cap space. If they renounce Theis, they have $19.6m.

If they renounce all their free agents except for Marcus Morris (who was starter for them) and Rozier, their Kyrie replacement...they won't have any capspace, only the MLE

[VFX]

Boston could be Vuc suitors very easily with the Horford news.

Barnes is the bigger news. Vuc is all but gone if they offer him his declined option, and it’ll make sense with their roster construction too. Makes it easy to let him walk at that amount.

[Nyce_1]

Bos is falling hard. But I see them chasing Vuc hard.

If we run it back, could we get homecourt in round 1?

[ezzzp]

Let Vuc walk.

It's the "addition by subtraction" factor that you can't quantify before it happens. Aaron Gordon seems primed to benefit from a Vuc (and Fournier)-less team. Bamba never has to replicate what Vuc gives us if Gordon/Isaac/Fultz are able to thrive in a new system.

It's not about the number of years or the dollars we're willing to commit to Vuc. It should be about committing to a system.

Coach Clifford got us into the playoffs, not Vucevic. I can't see the logic in this team doubling down on squeaking into the playoffs and going for year eight of 20 and 10's from Vuc.

I hope he is offered a max contract so WeHam can gracefully not resign the team's first all-star since Dwight. Though I hope they are above such public pressure to begin with.

Oh look, another voice of reason.

That voice of reason thinks that 3 non shooters, of which only 1 has handle to break down a set defense are going to "thrive in a new system."

Maybe Bamba, who was one of worst players in entire NBA last season will be the one that makes it work. Oh wait he can't shoot or dribble either. We'll also just pretend his leg didn't literally shatter 2 months into season because he couldn't handle 15mpg vs bench players.

Maybe they can speed up the pace in a run and gun style...oops none of them can shoot (so just take out the gun part of the equation) and disregard that only AG can kind of play decent in transition (well except for his nightly offensive charge on fast breaks).

They'll have to fire Clifford too as anyone familiar with his coaching style knows that he will NEVER run that type of high turnover/bad rebounding type of system.

Yea, sounds totally like the voice of reason.

[ezzzp]

Boston could be Vuc suitors very easily with the Horford news.

Barnes is the bigger news. Vuc is all but gone if they offer him his declined option, and it’ll make sense with their roster construction too. Makes it easy to let him walk at that amount.

Not really...

Woj: "Barnes and Kings are open to exploring a new deal together this summer"

Harrison Barnes has a $32.7M cap hold against Sacramento's cap space.

If they renounce everyone of their free agents, including Cauley-Stein, they'd have $28.4m in cap space with holes at starting SF AND starting Center.

If they don't renounce WCS, the would only have $15m in cap space.

There were rumors they're interested in Tobias Harris, again. Sacramento offered Tobias a max when he was free agent with Orlando.

[Bensational]

Boston could be Vuc suitors very easily with the Horford news.

Barnes is the bigger news. Vuc is all but gone if they offer him his declined option, and it’ll make sense with their roster construction too. Makes it easy to let him walk at that amount.

Not really...

Woj: "Barnes and Kings are open to exploring a new deal together this summer"

Harrison Barnes has a $32.7M cap hold against Sacramento's cap space.

If they renounce everyone of their free agents, including Cauley-Stein, they'd have $28.4m in cap space with holes at starting SF AND starting Center.

If they don't renounce WCS, the would only have $15m in cap space.

There were rumors they're interested in Tobias Harris, again. Sacramento offered Tobias a max when he was free agent with Orlando.

If they renounce all their FAs, doesn't that include Barnes and his $32M cap hold, giving them $60M cap space to address starting SF and C?

Harris for $30M, and they've still got $30M left for a C (doesn't mean they'd spend that much).

Or am I missing something?

[Bensational]

Lakers want to trade Bonga for cap space. Get on that!

[MartinsIzAfraud]

Barnes is the bigger news. Vuc is all but gone if they offer him his declined option, and it’ll make sense with their roster construction too. Makes it easy to let him walk at that amount.

Not really...

Woj: "Barnes and Kings are open to exploring a new deal together this summer"

Harrison Barnes has a $32.7M cap hold against Sacramento's cap space.

If they renounce everyone of their free agents, including Cauley-Stein, they'd have $28.4m in cap space with holes at starting SF AND starting Center.

If they don't renounce WCS, the would only have $15m in cap space.

There were rumors they're interested in Tobias Harris, again. Sacramento offered Tobias a max when he was free agent with Orlando.

If they renounce all their FAs, doesn't that include Barnes and his $32M cap hold, giving them $60M cap space to address starting SF and C?

Harris for $30M, and they've still got $30M left for a C (doesn't mean they'd spend that much).

Or am I missing something?

Correct they’ll have 59.6M and can get to 61.8 by waiving Yogi Ferell’s Non guaranteed deal.

[MartinsIzAfraud]

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