Nyce_1 wrote:Pulled this from another Magic forum:
Here's some vucevic math:
Vucevic was bad in fourth quarters and in clutch situations so when you're talking about replacing his offense you're talking about his gross production over an entire game and not a specific role as a closer. This is different from a guy like kemba who not only is 25 points (or whatever) to Charlotte but also fills the responsibility of "guy who gets us a bucket at the end of games". Vucevic wasn't that guy for us. Fournier and Ross were that. So you can kind of judge vucevic based on his numbers without multipliers.
Fans look at vucevic's absence as replacing 20.5 points. But that's not really the right way to look at it. We're not replacing his total points. We're replacing the difference in scoring between vucevic and his replacements.
A vucevic-Birch rotation last year got us about 27 ppg over 48 minutes.
If we're set with a rotation next year of Bamba-Birch, Birch-Bamba, replacement level center-Bamba or Bamba-Birch-replacement level center I think the reasonable expectation of production from our center position on offense is 18 ppg from the entire rotation.
So we're not really replacing 21ppg, we're replacing 9.
How do we replace this 9? The biggest chunk is backup point guard. Briscoe during his best run got us 4.4 ppg inefficiently for 20mpg. Grant when he was backup got us pretty much the exact same production. Fultz when he plays averages 8ppg over 20mpg. So if Fultz plays a full season and is nothing more than the same inefficient but dynamic backup we're pretty much halfway there. If he can't play we need to find a capable backup. Nothing spectacular. Just a guy who can get a few buckets and not completely kill us by being in the game.
The other half can be picked up by the rest of the rotation. Maybe Isaac takes a leap. Maybe everyone in the rotation not discussed above picks up an extra 0.8 ppg. Either way my point is there's a easy way to connect the dots and find a reasonable path to maintaining our scoring.
Now you might say "vucevic meant so much to our offense, how would it be this easy to replace him?"
Well 1. We wouldn't run the same offense. 2. I think vucevic's impact on our offense is overstated.
If we were overly reliant on vucevic's offense, our offensive efficiency would rise and fall in step with vucevic's. There's a pretty evident line separating vucevic's two seasons that I've discussed before. The first 25 games where he played like Dirk and the subsequent 55 games where he played like a normal vucevic season. Yet we had a much better offense after vucevic's decline.
Why? Little things. Shifting from Grant to briscoe/MCW. Bamba to Birch. Simmons to iwundu. Isaac finding his shot. So I'm not sure little improvements can't fill a vucevic hole again.
Ultimately the offense should take a small step back because of vucevic's reliability but I'm pretty confident that any gain in defense should cover the minor step backwards.
Except that math is wrong.
Vucevic literally took the 2nd most 4Q FGA's (behind Ross - who btw will be out the door asap if Vuc isn't resigned). Vucevic also scored the second most points in the 4Q (again behind Ross). That's total and per game. Plus he had the highest 4Q PIE on the team.
In clutch situations (defined by NBA.com as the final 5 minutes of games with 5pt difference), he literally took the most FGA's and he was 2nd in Points (behind Fournier). Again total and per game.
Also, the logic of how that person is just assuming PPG will upscale is way off. Birch/Bamba played vs 2nd/3d string bigs and bench defenses. Assuming they'll just suddenly become more skilled by adding minutes to compete vs the much more skilled, more physically gifted and more experienced bigs and opposing starting defenses is just flawed.
What type of different offense do you run? The Magic don't have the ball handlers or type of shooters that can score of the bounce to play a pace/space type of transition game...not that Clifford would EVER play in that style. So you'd probably have to fire him first as that's a square peg in a round hole situation.
There is a reason why when Vucevic was on the floor the Offensive Rating was 109.7...but as soon as he sat it cratered to a 100.3 Offensive Rating. That's a ridiculous 9.4 differential.
Vucevic isn't a superstar or a max player or even a real #1 option for a contender level roster...but the logic that what he does bring can just be cobbled together with spare parts is unrealistic.
