2019 Draft Thread - Tonight, 6/20, 4:00PM PST ESPN.

[Fitz303]

a couple more things about the Olshey presser:

* my guess is that Olshey's good mood is because he was really surprised and happy that Little was available. That outcome was, to use Olshey's vernacular, about a couple of tiers above what they could have realistically expected

* he mentioned using FT% as a gauge of college shooting more than 3ptFG%. I've heard that before but never seen it really quantified anywhere. Dame shot 87% in college; CJ shot 83%, so I guess that fits, especially considering the degree of difficulty of Dame's shots. Aminu shot 69% and Harkless shot 68%, so those two fit the template as well. Turner shot 76% so as usual, he breaks the mold and continues his square-peg-in-round-hole-world streak. Little shot 77% so let's all hope he fits the mold and doesn't follow ET's twisted path

Another pie in the sky comparison is Kawhi Leonard, and his college stats (especially shooting percentages) matchup pretty similar to Little as well

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kawhi-leonard-1.html#2010-2011-sum:players_per_game

We can only hope that Little has the jump in 3pt shooting that Kawhi had. Little's form doesn't look bad at all. It's just inconsistent. He sometimes fades to the left, sometimes kicks out his foot, sometimes goes straight up and down. Hopefully he can gain some consistency there

Yea.. but every iffy offensive wing with elite measurables is compared to Kawhi Leonard. It's getting old, non of them ever sniff the improvement Leonard made.

I see no Leonard from SDSU or his pre-draft workouts in Little. If Little does breakout into stardom, it will likely be more along the lines of Gerald Wallace with a better jumpshot, which is still a great player. But he doesn't have the ballhandling of even a college Kawhi. Little's ball-handling needs a ton of work.

His jumpshot actually looks solid to me, I think he'll be locked in as a league average shooter by his second or third year. He needs a ton of work if he's ever going to be an on-ball offensive weapon. His post game in the workout video looks pretty smooth though. Right now, I'm seeing a reasonable upside of Moe Harkless with a much better jumpshot. So, a solid, maybe Covington-like player at some point.

He's got continents to travel to get to the Jimmy Butler level of on-ball shot creation/making, let alone Kawhi.

I brought up Kawhi in regards to shooting %'s. Kawhi shot similarly to Little in college. Kawhi shot much better in the NBA. I said earlier in this thread yesterday that Little has Kawhi upside and Harkless downside. I think that's reasonable. I don't think he'll actually reach Kawhi level. His decision making would need to get much better and quicker, but the tools are all there. I do think he ends up closer to a better slashing/shooting Moe Harkless

[Roy The Natural]

Another pie in the sky comparison is Kawhi Leonard, and his college stats (especially shooting percentages) matchup pretty similar to Little as well

https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/kawhi-leonard-1.html#2010-2011-sum:players_per_game

We can only hope that Little has the jump in 3pt shooting that Kawhi had. Little's form doesn't look bad at all. It's just inconsistent. He sometimes fades to the left, sometimes kicks out his foot, sometimes goes straight up and down. Hopefully he can gain some consistency there

Yea.. but every iffy offensive wing with elite measurables is compared to Kawhi Leonard. It's getting old, non of them ever sniff the improvement Leonard made.

I see no Leonard from SDSU or his pre-draft workouts in Little. If Little does breakout into stardom, it will likely be more along the lines of Gerald Wallace with a better jumpshot, which is still a great player. But he doesn't have the ballhandling of even a college Kawhi. Little's ball-handling needs a ton of work.

His jumpshot actually looks solid to me, I think he'll be locked in as a league average shooter by his second or third year. He needs a ton of work if he's ever going to be an on-ball offensive weapon. His post game in the workout video looks pretty smooth though. Right now, I'm seeing a reasonable upside of Moe Harkless with a much better jumpshot. So, a solid, maybe Covington-like player at some point.

He's got continents to travel to get to the Jimmy Butler level of on-ball shot creation/making, let alone Kawhi.

I brought up Kawhi in regards to shooting %'s. Kawhi shot similarly to Little in college. Kawhi shot much better in the NBA. I said earlier in this thread yesterday that Little has Kawhi upside and Harkless downside. I think that's reasonable. I don't think he'll actually reach Kawhi level. His decision making would need to get much better and quicker, but the tools are all there. I do think he ends up closer to a better slashing/shooting Moe Harkless

Yea... but he doesn't have Kawhi upside if he can't dribble the ball. Kawhi could dribble the ball at this stage. Also, I think you're a bit high on his floor. His floor is Stanley Johnson.

I love the pick, but I'm remaining reasonable about what I've watched from him. A toolsy player, who's got some major holes in his game that he's going to need to plug to be an impact player.

[Fitz303]

Yea.. but every iffy offensive wing with elite measurables is compared to Kawhi Leonard. It's getting old, non of them ever sniff the improvement Leonard made.

I see no Leonard from SDSU or his pre-draft workouts in Little. If Little does breakout into stardom, it will likely be more along the lines of Gerald Wallace with a better jumpshot, which is still a great player. But he doesn't have the ballhandling of even a college Kawhi. Little's ball-handling needs a ton of work.

His jumpshot actually looks solid to me, I think he'll be locked in as a league average shooter by his second or third year. He needs a ton of work if he's ever going to be an on-ball offensive weapon. His post game in the workout video looks pretty smooth though. Right now, I'm seeing a reasonable upside of Moe Harkless with a much better jumpshot. So, a solid, maybe Covington-like player at some point.

He's got continents to travel to get to the Jimmy Butler level of on-ball shot creation/making, let alone Kawhi.

I brought up Kawhi in regards to shooting %'s. Kawhi shot similarly to Little in college. Kawhi shot much better in the NBA. I said earlier in this thread yesterday that Little has Kawhi upside and Harkless downside. I think that's reasonable. I don't think he'll actually reach Kawhi level. His decision making would need to get much better and quicker, but the tools are all there. I do think he ends up closer to a better slashing/shooting Moe Harkless

Yea... but he doesn't have Kawhi upside if he can't dribble the ball. Kawhi could dribble the ball at this stage. Also, I think you're a bit high on his floor. His floor is Stanley Johnson.

I love the pick, but I'm remaining reasonable about what I've watched from him. A toolsy player, who's got some major holes in his game that he's going to need to plug to be an impact player.

I don't think he's THAT bad at handling the ball. Straight line, he can take his man off the dribble and get to the rim. If you're asking him to break his man down, crossover, change direction, and pull up, yeah he's not there. He seems hesitant at times when he has a chance to take the ball to the rim. I'm hopeful that with time and confidence, he'll become much more comfortable with it. But it's not like he's constantly dribbling the ball off his leg when he tries to make a move with the ball ala Aminu (Aminu averaged 4 TOper40 in college, compared to Little's 2.9)

[Waynearchetype]

Yea.. but every iffy offensive wing with elite measurables is compared to Kawhi Leonard. It's getting old, non of them ever sniff the improvement Leonard made.

I see no Leonard from SDSU or his pre-draft workouts in Little. If Little does breakout into stardom, it will likely be more along the lines of Gerald Wallace with a better jumpshot, which is still a great player. But he doesn't have the ballhandling of even a college Kawhi. Little's ball-handling needs a ton of work.

His jumpshot actually looks solid to me, I think he'll be locked in as a league average shooter by his second or third year. He needs a ton of work if he's ever going to be an on-ball offensive weapon. His post game in the workout video looks pretty smooth though. Right now, I'm seeing a reasonable upside of Moe Harkless with a much better jumpshot. So, a solid, maybe Covington-like player at some point.

He's got continents to travel to get to the Jimmy Butler level of on-ball shot creation/making, let alone Kawhi.

I brought up Kawhi in regards to shooting %'s. Kawhi shot similarly to Little in college. Kawhi shot much better in the NBA. I said earlier in this thread yesterday that Little has Kawhi upside and Harkless downside. I think that's reasonable. I don't think he'll actually reach Kawhi level. His decision making would need to get much better and quicker, but the tools are all there. I do think he ends up closer to a better slashing/shooting Moe Harkless

Yea... but he doesn't have Kawhi upside if he can't dribble the ball. Kawhi could dribble the ball at this stage. Also, I think you're a bit high on his floor. His floor is Stanley Johnson.

I love the pick, but I'm remaining reasonable about what I've watched from him. A toolsy player, who's got some major holes in his game that he's going to need to plug to be an impact player.

Kawhi had an extra year of college to work on it though. I think their freshmen seasons are super comparable, Kawhis slightly better but in a much worse conference. The key to Kawhi wasn't his college numbers though, it was the training staff in San Antonio.

[Dangeruss]

I really wanted Grant Williams

[JasonStern]

Kawhi, Butler, Gerald Wallace - all very realistic expectations for the 25th pick in a weak draft. personally I'm hoping he ends up a solid rotation player as good as Travis Outlaw.

[Fitz303]

Kawhi, Butler, Gerald Wallace - all very realistic expectations for the 25th pick in a weak draft. personally I'm hoping he ends up a solid rotation player as good as Travis Outlaw.

Kawhi Leonard - 15th pick
Jimmy Butler - 30th pick
Gerald Wallace - 25th pick

Sure, it will be a win if he's a good rotation player, but it's also not insane to hope that he could be more

[JasonStern]

Kawhi, Butler, Gerald Wallace - all very realistic expectations for the 25th pick in a weak draft. personally I'm hoping he ends up a solid rotation player as good as Travis Outlaw.

Kawhi Leonard - 15th pick
Jimmy Butler - 30th pick
Gerald Wallace - 25th pick

Sure, it will be a win if he's a good rotation player, but it's also not insane to hope that he could be more

Portland's development staff has done a solid job developing wings. Little's upside is considerably higher than Layman and Connaughton, and both have found roles in the league. I'm optimistic and loved the pick, just think the comparisons to all-star players are a bit premature at this point.

[Roy The Natural]

Kawhi, Butler, Gerald Wallace - all very realistic expectations for the 25th pick in a weak draft. personally I'm hoping he ends up a solid rotation player as good as Travis Outlaw.

Kawhi Leonard - 15th pick
Jimmy Butler - 30th pick
Gerald Wallace - 25th pick

Sure, it will be a win if he's a good rotation player, but it's also not insane to hope that he could be more

Portland's development staff has done a solid job developing wings. Little's upside is considerably higher than Layman and Connaughton, and both have found roles in the league. I'm optimistic and loved the pick, just think the comparisons to all-star players are a bit premature at this point.

Agreed... part of me wants to get carried away with the pick and project him as a Kawhi level superstar. But realistically we should be beyond ecstatic if he ends up Moe Harkless with a reliable set jumper.

[tacos]

While you guys are all arguing whether he'll be Lenard or Butler you failed to realize he is of similar size to Michael Jordan... who BOTH happen to be bipedal Earth humans both also alumni of NC

If you guys need me I'll be over here with the Kool-Aid

[Sinobas]

What does this guy have over Maurice Harkless? Not seeing it.

[Goldbum]

What does this guy have over Maurice Harkless? Not seeing it.

He’s much more “sudden” and plays with a more attacking ferocious attitude. His motor was off the charts in high school but he was often overthinking things at UNC which caused him to play a bit slower than he’s capable of. He’s obviously behind Moe when it comes to basketball know how, but he is incredibly intelligent, driven, and actually dominated both the major high school all star games. MVP of both and easily outplayed Zion. His jump shot looks improved (but who knows) and he seems to have the work ethic and humbleness to overcome his flaws...
So yeah I have relative high hopes that he will reach his potential. Moe doesn’t have the same driven make up. Remember when he stopped shooting 3’s due to hitting his bonus. Or how he pouted and self sabotaged in ORL. Nassir accepted a role at UNC and used the challenge to better himself....

[whatchaknow]

What does this guy have over Maurice Harkless? Not seeing it.

He’s much more “sudden” and plays with a more attacking ferocious attitude. His motor was off the charts in high school but he was often overthinking things at UNC which caused him to play a bit slower than he’s capable of. He’s obviously behind Moe when it comes to basketball know how, but he is incredibly intelligent, driven, and actually dominated both the major high school all star games. MVP of both and easily outplayed Zion. His jump shot looks improved (but who knows) and he seems to have the work ethic and humbleness to overcome his flaws...
So yeah I have relative high hopes that he will reach his potential. Moe doesn’t have the same driven make up. Remember when he stopped shooting 3’s due to hitting his bonus. Or how he pouted and self sabotaged in ORL. Nassir accepted a role at UNC and used the challenge to better himself....

Not to mention he’s also got what 8 years of development on harkless and 9 mil less on the cap? Anybody penciling him as our starter next year should chill a little nobody at 25 was gonna be an impact player for us this upcoming year. I really think olshey knows how to draft and he’s done a good job of building quality youth for when this team eventually ages. Olshey leaves a lot to be desired as a gm but the guy does a good job drafting so no reason to discredit this pick before he plays a single minute just because he’s not better than a 9 year vet right away

[d-train]

I love the absurdity of talent evaluations. A year ago the consensus was this guy was the 3rd best prospect of the 2018 class and a candidate for 1st pick in 2019 NBA draft. Now, we essentially have the same set of data and he is the 25th pick in the NBA draft. He dropped to 25 because he played only 18 minutes in a system that 18 minutes was the maximum available to him and was not tailored to his strengths for the first time in his life. There was no opportunity to confirm or dismiss the assessment of his Nassir's talent in the 36 part-time games he played in College.

[whatchaknow]

I love the absurdity of talent evaluations. A year ago the consensus was this guy was the 3rd best prospect of the 2018 class and a candidate for 1st pick in 2019 NBA draft. Now, we essentially have the same set of data and he is the 25th pick in the NBA draft. He dropped to 25 because he played only 18 minutes in a system that 18 minutes was the maximum available to him and was not tailored to his strengths for the first time in his life. There was no opportunity to confirm or dismiss the assessment of his Nassir's talent in the 36 part-time games he played in College.

Pretty much. Then in the same draft a kid with hardly any hype coming into the college season goes and plays 5 games and suffers an injury but somehow raised his value into the top 5 (garland). A lot of times the draft doesn’t make sense to me. I think little was a top 5 athlete in this draft, maybe we caught a break with this pick but even if it doesn’t work out the physical profile was too good to pass up

[HoopsFanAZ]

Starting with tiers and then need ... and draft position with the long-term stats/percentage chance of how well players have done picked at his range in the NBA ... and the Blazers draft at 25 ... and yet there were 6 or so players available who sounded like a reasonable return as a #25 pick (deep with potential starters, 6th men, rotation players) ...

With all that said as a starting point for my expectations of #25, now named Nassir Little, I’m happy as heck with the draft. His floor looks like Harkless/Aminu. NONE of the Blazers SFs/wings are top 15 at their position. His reasonable upside based upon the various evaluations and predictions — Gerald Wallace 2.0. His rebounding? Maybe not. 3’s can be better. The rest of GE’s numbers? Doable based on the reports. Jerome Kersey’s best 5-year stretch but better % on 3’s? Yes.

Can Little be a “star”? I have no idea, but I’m not betting on him either way. He’s an actual, athletic SF with size/length for the position. I suppose that’s part of the shocking part of the pick.

[Drewskickinit]

Sounds like the Blazers made a great draft pick. Honestly I barely pay attention to college basketball so I didn't even know who Little was before draft night but from what I'm reading and seeing it sounds like a great pick. I watched that 2018 McDonalds all America game and Little was dominating out there. Sounds like his college career wasnt to impressive but what I just watched in that McDonalds game was freaking badass!! If Little has drive to excel he is going to be an allstar

[DusterBuster]

Sounds like the Blazers made a great draft pick. Honestly I barely pay attention to college basketball so I didn't even know who Little was before draft night but from what I'm reading and seeing it sounds like a great pick. I watched that 2017 McDonalds all America game and Little was dominating out there. Sounds like his college career wasnt to impressive but what I just watched in that McDonalds game was freaking badass!! If Little has drive to excel he is going to be an allstar

Yeah, I did the same thing as you. Besides Zion, I knew next to nothing about this draft and only started reading up on Nassir after he was picked.

I'm pretty hopeful this kids prospects and willing to believe that his college stint was more of an aberration than a sign of things to come. The thing I really like about him is that he sounds really smart and a student of the game, so I don't think he'll have any problem picking things up quick... but alongside that, I really trust the Blazers player development staff. You go down the line and practically every player they've picked in the draft has come out of Portland with an NBA career - even 2nd round guys. I think the Blazers have got one of the best development staffs in the whole league and I think they've got a ton to work with in Little.

I know most people say he's probably a year or two off from being even a bench player, but with his size and smarts, I wouldn't be shocked to see him carve out a role in the rotation his rookie year.

[d-train]

Nassir isn't real tall, but he moves players around like an overpowering big man. Someone compared him to Patterson, that might be the best comparison. Patterson without the knucklehead and alcoholism would be a real good player.

[BlazersBroncos]

Compared to Patterson, Little's show mechanics look like Ray Allen.

I am hoping for a DeMarre Carroll / Jae Crowder caliber player down the road. Anything more is just icing on the cake.