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Lakers needs: 3, D and iso

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Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#1 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:06 am

The confirmed team so far: LeBron, Kuzma, AD. To survive the regular season the Lakers need to add 2 players that can run an offense and 2 big centers to keep AD and LeBron fresh. These are attainable with vet mins and MLE.


What the Lakers need to think about spending cap space on is for the playoffs and the regular season. Those players need to have at least 1 of these skills: accurate 3 shooters (>37%), a plus defender (>0.5 DRPM), capable of scoring efficiently in isolation (>0.9 PPP).

Only 3 players in the NBA last season met all 3 factors: Stephen Curry, PG13, Rudy Gay
That should be all the arguments needed to bring Rudy Gay to the Lakers.


Free agents that were not mentioned above but have 2 skills
Free agents that met both the 3 shooting and plus defender: Danny Green, Sefolosha, Theis, Dedmon, Beverley, Caruso

Free agents that met both the 3 shooting and efficient isolation: Brogdon, Middleton, Barnes, Irving, Tobias, Kawhi, Klay, Lance

Free agents that met both the plus defender and efficient isolation: Butler


Free agents that were not mentioned above but have 1 elite skill
Free agents elite in 3 shooting (>40%): Seth Curry, Bojan, Collison, JaMychal, D House, Quinn Cook, Korver, Redick, M Scott

Free agents elite in defending (>2 DRPM): Ed Davis, Noel, T Chandler, Vucevic, Lopez, Jordan, Noah, Baynes, Zubac, Kleber

Free agents elite in isolation (>1 PPP): Michael Beasley, Rose, Hood, Kemba, Rivers



What combination of these players would maximize the cap space the Lakers have?
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#2 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:15 am

It was pretty surprising to see Caruso and Lance show up to fulfill 2 of these skills. Bringing them back makes sense.

Also surprising, Beasley was just about the most efficient iso scorer in the NBA last year. That seems to be his one skill.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#3 » by tviper » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:22 am

Rudy Gay should definitely be a top target. Would like to bring Caruso back in a back-up role, but bet he gets signed by another team for more money. Korver would be great to have on a min. Would give the full room to Seth for sure but I bet he gets better offers. Could see him going to GS actually. Baynes would be a nice get if he is waived as the second annual James Jones solid for Lebron.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#4 » by Dr Aki » Sun Jun 23, 2019 12:57 am

Free agents that met both the 3 shooting and efficient isolation: Brogdon, Middleton, Barnes, Irving, Tobias, Kawhi, Klay, Lance


is kawhi not an elite defender? TIL

how much of that was a function of how much offensive load he was forced to shoulder?

that said, i've long been an advocate of bringing lance and caruso back.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#5 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 1:20 am

Dr Aki wrote:
Free agents that met both the 3 shooting and efficient isolation: Brogdon, Middleton, Barnes, Irving, Tobias, Kawhi, Klay, Lance


is kawhi not an elite defender? TIL

how much of that was a function of how much offensive load he was forced to shoulder?

that said, i've long been an advocate of bringing lance and caruso back.


Well defense stats are not ideal, these stats are a guide and we can correct them with our eyes but they should make us rethink our assumptions.

Regardless, it is still interesting. Kawhi has never had a DRPM below 1, this season he had one at 0.02. This is someone who did a dive into it: https://www.reddit.com/r/nba/comments/af2g59/kawhi_leonards_defense_has_declined_he_is_no/
The 2 years Kawhi won DPOY he was top 10 in DRPM and the best wing. Then he dropped off on these stats in 2016-17. This article tries to explain it - https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/kawhi-leonard-is-so-great-at-defense-hes-actually-hurting-the-spurs/
Since then he's dropped even further. It's a bit of a head-scratcher because the same stat that highlighted his DPOY seasons is now saying that he's been average last season, the way the stat is calculated hasn't changed.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#6 » by stan francisco » Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:12 am

Rudy Gay, Caruso, Noël.
Since the 1976 merger LAL 11, CHI 6, BOS 6, SAS 5, GSW 4

PG: Luka / Vincent / Bronny
SG: Smart / Reaves / Knecht / Mañon
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PF: Bron / Vando / Kleber
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#7 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:47 am

It's interesting how expensove efficient isolation players are when they are also good at either 3 shooting or defense.

The only affordable one are Gay and Lance. The rest are near max players.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#8 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:59 am

From this list, this is probably the best possible and realistic team to spend $32m, a Room MLE and vet mins.

PG: Beverley ($10m) | Caruso (vet min)
SG: Seth Curry (Room) | Lance (vet min) | Talen (min)
SF: LeBron (signed) | Thabo (vet min) | Korver (vet min)
PF: Rudy Gay ($14m) | Kuzma (signed)
C : Davis (signed) | Dedmon ($8m) | Chandler (vet min)
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#9 » by LAKESHOW » Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:06 am

Nice thread. I keep on going back to Mirotic. A big who can clog the middle. And a 3pt shooter. But heres the key...he has repoire with AD. He has experience in working together with AD, and theyve had success together. Now im not talking money or cryin about cap space blaj blah blah. Just.to mention his chemistry and history with our elite aquisition. It would be the same with Bron or any of his past guys. Drive and kick spot up guy, that would be mirotic.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#10 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 5:26 am

LAKESHOW wrote:Nice thread. I keep on going back to Mirotic. A big who can clog the middle. And a 3pt shooter. But heres the key...he has repoire with AD. He has experience in working together with AD, and theyve had success together. Now im not talking money or cryin about cap space blaj blah blah. Just.to mention his chemistry and history with our elite aquisition. It would be the same with Bron or any of his past guys. Drive and kick spot up guy, that would be mirotic.


Yeah, Mirotic would have been a 3 and D guy if the 3% limit was dropped to be >36% instead of >37%.

I like him too but he can be streaky and he wasn't that accurate with AD, he was 33.5% when with the Pelicans. The worst since his rookie year. I think it's likely he gets paid more than his value, which is probably around $10-$12m. If Lakers can get him under 12m then it would be great, Rondo might sign the min to semi-recreate the Pels team.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#11 » by king_james_vers » Sun Jun 23, 2019 2:03 pm

Nice topic. Seems like some pretty realistic options, which is a breath of fresh air. I get really irritated seeing the constant pipe dream posts of "well, maybe Beverley and 6 other mid-tier free agents will all accept the vet min for a shot at a ring" nonsense. I feel like every place I visit is plagued with totally unrealistic posts like that.

One thing I'm wondering: of the metrics you listed, what does the year-to-year volatility of them look like? My experience with advanced metrics in sports -- not just basketball, but sports in general -- is that a lot of the abstract, pioneering numbers aren't necessarily consistent year to year. When you're breaking these players down by the various vectors (PPP, DRPM in particulary), I'd be curious:
- which players still meet the criteria if you expand it to 2 or 3 years (i.e. player met the criteria in '19, but not '18 or '17)
- which players are added if you expand the criteria to 2 or 3 years (i.e. a player met the criteria in '17, '18, but not '19)
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#12 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:33 pm

king_james_vers wrote:Nice topic. Seems like some pretty realistic options, which is a breath of fresh air. I get really irritated seeing the constant pipe dream posts of "well, maybe Beverley and 6 other mid-tier free agents will all accept the vet min for a shot at a ring" nonsense. I feel like every place I visit is plagued with totally unrealistic posts like that.

One thing I'm wondering: of the metrics you listed, what does the year-to-year volatility of them look like? My experience with advanced metrics in sports -- not just basketball, but sports in general -- is that a lot of the abstract, pioneering numbers aren't necessarily consistent year to year. When you're breaking these players down by the various vectors (PPP, DRPM in particulary), I'd be curious:
- which players still meet the criteria if you expand it to 2 or 3 years (i.e. player met the criteria in '19, but not '18 or '17)
- which players are added if you expand the criteria to 2 or 3 years (i.e. a player met the criteria in '17, '18, but not '19)


Good point, volatility is an issue from year to year. That would be more work than I'm willing to put into this but it's certainly worth someone doing it. I would expect these lists to change but players change a lot from year to year and from situation to situation. 500 minutes was the cut-off for these stats.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#13 » by One Love » Sun Jun 23, 2019 4:45 pm

I really like Rose and his year last year... Lineup as follows:

PG: Rose & Carusa
SG: Green & Bullock
SF: LBJ & Ariza
PF: Kuzz & Aminu
C: AD & Noel

Lakeshow Baby...
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#14 » by Landsberger » Sun Jun 23, 2019 7:43 pm

3 and D we need. Not so sure about Iso. I'd say a very good team this day and age doesn't need any isolation other than in specific situations. We need to have a group that can move the ball and move without the ball. Those 2 things combined can overcome a lot of individual deficiencies. The coach and system will be key IMHO. We settled for too much isolation last year when we often move the ball and scored freely for 3.25 quarters only to settle for isolation ball to close the games. A lot of those close games ended in losses too.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#15 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:37 pm

Landsberger wrote:3 and D we need. Not so sure about Iso. I'd say a very good team this day and age doesn't need any isolation other than in specific situations. We need to have a group that can move the ball and move without the ball. Those 2 things combined can overcome a lot of individual deficiencies. The coach and system will be key IMHO. We settled for too much isolation last year when we often move the ball and scored freely for 3.25 quarters only to settle for isolation ball to close the games. A lot of those close games ended in losses too.


I think iso players are more important than ever now that the shot clock only resets to 14 seconds after an offensive board. Plus in the playoffs iso plays become important when teams constantly break down your offensive system.

Their importance is reflected when you look at the price people will pay for iso+D and iso+3 over 3+D.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#16 » by Landsberger » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:43 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Landsberger wrote:3 and D we need. Not so sure about Iso. I'd say a very good team this day and age doesn't need any isolation other than in specific situations. We need to have a group that can move the ball and move without the ball. Those 2 things combined can overcome a lot of individual deficiencies. The coach and system will be key IMHO. We settled for too much isolation last year when we often move the ball and scored freely for 3.25 quarters only to settle for isolation ball to close the games. A lot of those close games ended in losses too.


I think iso players are more important than ever now that the shot clock only resets to 14 seconds after an offensive board. Plus in the playoffs iso plays become important when teams constantly break down your offensive system.

Their importance is reflected when you look at the price people will pay for iso+D and iso+3 over 3+D.


We'll disagree I guess. A well coached team can score without a clear side in 14 seconds IMHO. Ball movement is huge and a much better way to break a defense down than dribble isolation. Take a look at the final 5 possessions of the last 2 games of the finals if you want to see what Isolation can do for you. Toronto gave away one game when they had a lead and nearly gave away the second one isolating above the 3 point line when only needing a 2 to seal the wins. Now if you have a guy like Kobe, Jordan or Kareem things are different but we don't and basically no one else does either. Durant is the closest thing today and he's probably not coming back to that level after the injury.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#17 » by zimpy27 » Sun Jun 23, 2019 8:51 pm

Landsberger wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
Landsberger wrote:3 and D we need. Not so sure about Iso. I'd say a very good team this day and age doesn't need any isolation other than in specific situations. We need to have a group that can move the ball and move without the ball. Those 2 things combined can overcome a lot of individual deficiencies. The coach and system will be key IMHO. We settled for too much isolation last year when we often move the ball and scored freely for 3.25 quarters only to settle for isolation ball to close the games. A lot of those close games ended in losses too.


I think iso players are more important than ever now that the shot clock only resets to 14 seconds after an offensive board. Plus in the playoffs iso plays become important when teams constantly break down your offensive system.

Their importance is reflected when you look at the price people will pay for iso+D and iso+3 over 3+D.


We'll disagree I guess. A well coached team can score without a clear side in 14 seconds IMHO. Ball movement is huge and a much better way to break a defense down than dribble isolation. Take a look at the final 5 possessions of the last 2 games of the finals if you want to see what Isolation can do for you. Toronto gave away one game when they had a lead and nearly gave away the second one isolating above the 3 point line when only needing a 2 to seal the wins. Now if you have a guy like Kobe, Jordan or Kareem things are different but we don't and basically no one else does either. Durant is the closest thing today and he's probably not coming back to that level after the injury.


I agree that ball movement is much better. I just mean for when things breakdown.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#18 » by Landsberger » Sun Jun 23, 2019 9:08 pm

zimpy27 wrote:
Landsberger wrote:
zimpy27 wrote:
I think iso players are more important than ever now that the shot clock only resets to 14 seconds after an offensive board. Plus in the playoffs iso plays become important when teams constantly break down your offensive system.

Their importance is reflected when you look at the price people will pay for iso+D and iso+3 over 3+D.


We'll disagree I guess. A well coached team can score without a clear side in 14 seconds IMHO. Ball movement is huge and a much better way to break a defense down than dribble isolation. Take a look at the final 5 possessions of the last 2 games of the finals if you want to see what Isolation can do for you. Toronto gave away one game when they had a lead and nearly gave away the second one isolating above the 3 point line when only needing a 2 to seal the wins. Now if you have a guy like Kobe, Jordan or Kareem things are different but we don't and basically no one else does either. Durant is the closest thing today and he's probably not coming back to that level after the injury.


I agree that ball movement is much better. I just mean for when things breakdown.


If we're in a position where we need an isolation Bron will have the ball in his hands.

Now if we're talking a guard/Forward who can get to the hoop and finish/draw fouls when we're in sync. Ingram was drawing fouls off the dribble isolation but had issues hitting the FT's. Ball had issues with both. Having one guy who can get to the hoop will be huge for us.
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#19 » by SlimShady83 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 2:56 am

This team needs ... Defenders, shooters but more importantly. I think we're missing hustle players - players that will do all the dirty work, just to name a couple off the top of my head; Jordan Hill, Larry nance type players - players who just go at it, know there role etc :) I love guys like that
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Re: Lakers needs: 3, D and iso 

Post#20 » by zimpy27 » Mon Jun 24, 2019 3:22 am

SlimShady83 wrote:This team needs ... Defenders, shooters but more importantly. I think we're missing hustle players - players that will do all the dirty work, just to name a couple off the top of my head; Jordan Hill, Larry nance type players - players who just go at it, know there role etc :) I love guys like that

Yeah true, hustle players are important. Lonzo, Lance and KCP were like that.
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