Play-type Efficiency Comparisons - Cam/Hunter/Barrett

[azuresou1]

Credit goes to this guy for putting together the charts.

DeAndre was frankly hyper efficient on every single play type and it's actually kind of staggering how good he was. Obviously he didn't see much PnR work, and I don't expect that to change, but I expect him to shine working off the ball and getting efficient looks.

Cam was amazing as the PnR ball handler, okay in transition and on spot up shots, and not very good working off screens. Here the fit is a little rougher; seems like we shouldn't expect too much out the gates from as an ancillary guy with the main unit, and he might be better suited on the second unit. Worth calling out that he did have an atrocious 33% TOV rate as a PnR ball handler, but despite that it's probably worth powering through and forcing him to develop there.

Barrett is a point of comparison, and looking between him and Cam I think Cam has a more favorable skillset in the long term.

[Jamaaliver]

This is...amazing. Thanks for pulling this together.

Admittedly, D Hunter should be more advanced/efficient at these things in college after 3 years of grooming and coaching.

But seeing him listed as Excellent as both PnR Ball Handler and PnR Roll man is really enticing. From an analytics perspective -- It's clear why our front office would be so high on him.

[Jamaaliver]

Projecting Hunter's, Reddish's Impact Year 1

4. De'Andre Hunter, Atlanta Hawks



Impact level: Average role player

After trading up to draft at No. 4 overall, the Atlanta Hawks likely saw a player they believed could contribute right away. De'Andre Hunter (6'7", 225 lbs) played two seasons at Virginia and just went off for 27 points to win the national title game.

As a rookie, he may be valued more for his defense than his scoring. Hunter already has a strong physical profile for an NBA forward with enough strength, length and quickness to effectively guard either forward spot. He should immediately be able to contest at a high level while defending on the ball.

Offensively, however, he'll be used mostly off the ball.

Last year, 30.4 percent of his possessions were from a spot-up position. Hunter's role will be similar in Atlanta. He's not an advanced shot-creator, which will limit his scoring potential. Instead, he'll need his three-point stroke to carry over quickly. He didn't shoot them in volume at Virginia (2.8 attempts per game), but he was accurate (43.8 percent).

He'll still be good for two-point baskets when given space for straight-line drives or post-up opportunities.

Otherwise, Hunter wasn't a strong rebounder (5.1 per game) or noteworthy assist weapon (2.0 per game). He'll settle in as a three-and-D role player between Trae Young and John Collins. Don't bank on many offensive outbursts like the one we saw during his final NCAA game.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

10. Cam Reddish, Atlanta Hawks



Projected impact: Streaky shot-maker/average role player

After Cam Reddish shot 35.6 percent at Duke, it will be tough to trust him for consistent offense as a rookie.

His role won't be any different, either. Reddish, who just spent 33.8 percent of his possessions out of spot-ups, 22.8 percent in transition, 12.3 percent off screens and 8.8 percent off handoffs (77.7 percent combined), will continue to play an off-ball role in Atlanta alongside Trae Young, Kevin Huerter and John Collins.

Reddish will find himself standing around the arc frequently next season, which could hurt his ability to build rhythm or confidence. It will result in more erratic production and shooting.

But he's also too talented and skilled. He hit 2.5 threes per game last year and will have outings in which he heats up for the Hawks. Through his rookie campaign, he should be good for streaky shot-making that helps him produce points in bunches.

He may also be able to add defensive value with his versatility and anticipation. It's realistic to expect mistakes on that end, but the coaching staff will likely feel optimistic about Reddish's long-term defensive upside by the conclusion of his first season.

Bet on more inefficiency from the No. 10 pick, but also three-point and pull-up shot-making, as well as some flashes of ball-screen offense and defensive potential.

Bleacher Report

[azuresou1]

I think it would be a mistake to relegate Cam to an entirely off ball role. To me he clearly looks like a rhythm shooter, and it can be really hard to just be a spot up guy, not knowing when your touches are coming, or having your touches come from set plays.

Additionally, in the long term, if we as a team want to be true contenders we need to find a primary scoring option from the wing. It's in both our and Cam's best interest to really challenge him as a shot creator and shot maker by allowing him to play through his mistakes with the ball in his hands.

Not to discount the hard work it takes, but that he ranked in the 94th percentile in PnR DESPITE having a whopping 33% TOV tells me that by tightening up his handle and polishing his decision making, he CAN be something special.

I would use him like OKC used Harden. Trot him out in the second unit, probably with Turner as the nominal/stable point guard, and then a mix of some starters and bench players.

[Alejandro09]

I am very comfortable with putting Cam and Turner as our ball handlers for the second unit. Let Cam be the sixth man and show the league that he is more than a spot up shooter.

[azuresou1]

It’s not clear where Reddish will play immediately, but both Schlenk and Pierce believe he can play the 2 or the 3, and more importantly, he should be able to guard both positions well. Schlenk also sees Reddish filling in on a part-time basis as the team’s primary creator on offense, which is where those who coached him throughout high school feel like his best role is.

https://theathletic.com/1044880/2019/06/24/behind-the-scenes-of-how-and-why-cam-reddish-was-atlantas-pick-at-no-10/

[Jamaaliver]

How FiveThirtyEight’s CARMELO projections view the 2019-20 Atlanta Hawks

Nate Silver and the crew at FiveThirtyEight use their CARMELO model to evaluate every NBA player, with salary projections included. The data is publicly available (as you can see with the link above), and it looks to the past and future to gather interesting information, including valuable projections for incoming rookies.

For our purposes, we’ll glance at the current Hawks roster, comparing actual salary to what CARMELO lays out for projected salary “worth” over the body of that player’s contract. CARMELO ignores the salary cap entirely, so that is worth noting, but this provides food for thought from a noted statistical model.


De’Andre Hunter

• Actual - $32.1 million for next four seasons (team options for 2021-22 and 2022-23)
• CARMELO - $19.4 million for next four seasons ($-3.4 million for 2019-20)

This is perhaps the most controversial evaluation on the list, with the No. 4 overall pick projected as a sharp negative during his rookie season and only a modest positive after that. Hunter does have a projected five-year value of more than $30 million but, in short, the ROI wouldn’t be great on a top-five pick performing to that level. It is worth noting that Hunter has never been an analytical darling, largely because his steal and block numbers were low in college, but Hawks fans aren’t going to like this.



Cam Reddish

• Actual - $19.3 million for next four seasons (team options for 2021-22 and 2022-23)
• CARMELO - $8.2 million for next four seasons ($-5.2 million for 2019-20)

You’re not misreading the 2019-20 projection for Reddish, and FiveThirtyEight sees him as more than a $5 million negative for his rookie campaign. Most rookies are bad and there is no reason to panic, but it is a jarring number to see. Without knowing all of the specifics of the model, it is merely a guess to say that the system doesn’t like Reddish much based on his woeful college numbers but, more optimistically, his performance is projected to improve down the line.

Peachtree Hoops